Pitchers Coming up - Question

[powerz]

Heres a question for ya all...

How points do you assign to a pitchers era when he gets called up from Triple A.

If I see a 4.00 or more I typically fade them in thier first start b/c I figure they opponent gets at least 5 runs that night and that is usuall enough to win.

Do you think a full point is the difference between the bigs and AAA?

 

[seriousaddiction]

Can never tell...some guys pitch better in the majors when they get there...its an absolute crap shoot

 

[powerz]

Okay lets keep track, starting tonight

Gio Gonzalez era in aaa 4.56 finished tonight 6.00

 

[OTK]

I don't even put much stock into their AA/AAA ERA's. Some guys you will have heard of before because they're top prospects that have nasty stuff. Some of them might not have the best ERA's in the minors, but they have the stuff. The guy that made his debut tonight, Gio Gonzalez was a highly touted prospect and he proved why against the Jays. I don't know what his ERA was, but if not for one really bad pitch to Barajas he completely shut down the Jays. I don't care what someone thinks about the Jays lineup, they are 10x more talented than any minor league lineup you'll see.

 

[jbragg10]

I would love for us to keep track.
It peeks my interest.

 

[powerz]

Todays rook

Zink, who was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2002, will make his first start after going 13-4 with a 2.89 ERA for Class AAA Pawtucket this season

 

[karny9]

A thread like this would be awesome because itd give us a step ahead in September when the rosters are expanded. Though I doubt Ill be doing any heavy work during that time..

 

[woodypaige]

Powerz, I realized along time ago that these pitchers have a slight advantage in their first start, because most players have not seen him throw. But when they face that pitcher the second time, he usually gets light up early.

An example to this is Pitt's pitching staff. Duke and Maholm were great first years pitchers, but now are just average and have given up lots of runs on any given inning. Karstan's this year has been close to pitching extremely great his first 2 games, beating the Cubs and DBacks. I think if he faced them again this year, the outcome might be different, because the players can study game film they have on him. Rookie Herrera on the other hand didn't have control when he got here and threw a lot of walks. So the batters waited on the count and eventually got the fast ball right over the middle of the plate, which was the cause of Herrera to lose his spot in the starting rotation.

Now if some of the players played on the same team with that pitcher or faced him in AAA/AA, they know what to expect. But it still comes down to who makes the faster adjustment, the pitcher or the hitter.

 

[BadCo]

Listening to the stardust line years ago they mentioned that before expansion bettors used to line up to get down on a first time starter.

Sure miss that show!

Most top prospects never pitch in triple A.

 

[r.a.]

Apart from this discusion and for what it is worth I watched Gonzalez pitch his first game vs. Toronto. After a shaky first inning he pitched 5 scoreless innings before being relieved in the seventh inning. I was very impressed as he struck out 4 and walked 2 batters. A's consider him their top prospect. He was a first round pick of the White Sox and they got him in the Nick Swisher deal.

 

[prodigy]

Listening to the stardust line years ago they mentioned that before expansion bettors used to line up to get down on a first time starter.

Sure miss that show!

Most top prospects never pitch in triple A.

this is an important point.

powerz i think you are a step ahead of most because youre trying to put in the time. nothing but respect for that. however, i wouldnt put too much weight on an ERA in AAA. if you are 'must cap stats' kind of guy, id be more concerned with K/BB. you simply cannot put unnecessary guys on base at the major league level or you will get hammered.

 

[barman]

I think it's reasonable to presume that almost all VirginMLB starting pitchers will result in their team being Underpriced for that game.

Thus I'm rarely inclined to play Against a first timer. If the bullpen is fully available, it may well be a good Lean most nights

 

[TheBud]

I usually see the first mlb start they shut the other team down because nobody really knows the guy... unless they're hurling dog sh*t...

but that second mlb game they usually get touched up some after good video scouting from that first mlb start is available to their opponent. Only real case I haven't seen this in lately is Karstens

 

[powerz]

HERE's some info on the kid starting for San Deigo tonight:

Reineke went 5-9 with a 4.41 ERA in 20 games - 19 starts with Class AAA Round Rock. The 26-year-old righthander allowed two runs and five hits in six innings of his lone start with Class AAA Portland.

 

[SundayTiger]

Funny, I was reading a preview on Reineke, thinking about how this guy is a shitty AAA pitcher and come to therx and there is already a thread about him. Nice.

The line for this game tonight is high, IMO. Kendrick is not a very good pitcher and got bombed his last time out, and your laying -140 on him, on the road??