Pinnacle best bets

[wantitall4moi]

Since gys are infatuated with Pin and when they have "off" numbers I figured I would put a few up that I see as "off" from the consensus lines.

AZ is 10 cents lower than the best line out there at -173. Most places have -185, and a few 190s. Their Minn price is right in line at +165, although a few places have 167, and a 172 at betjamaica.

Tor/Mon Their number on Tor is a nickle(6 cents)better than everywhere, except betjamaice whos is anickle better than them. The dog price at Pin is actually not that good either. So I guess that means they "like" Mon.

Bal/Phil same situation as above. Their Phi is 5 to 7 cents better than everyone, except betjamaica again. And their Bal price is right in line at +155, with most places showing that number with a 150, and a 153. So I guess they "like" Balt. FWIW that line has moved quite a bit since yesterday.

Sea/St Lou This is where they have a nicer dog price and the fave is in line, so they must like the Cards in ths one today. Their -151 is slightly better than some, but not overly generous, but the 143 on the dog is 6-8 cents better than anywhere else, except Bo Dog.

Tam/Fla Not so much a discrepency, but 5-10 cents better than most places on Fla. their TB number is in the middle of the pack.

SD/KC Interesting game here. Most places are right at -200 on SD. Pin has -211 which is high. BUT they have the best number by far on the dog side at 193. Mostly because they hold that 8 cent line where most have broken to at least 20 if not 30. So no take on this one.

Ana/LA Their Ana is 6 to 11 cents better than anyone, and their dog price is right in line. Most places are still holding at the opener, and they dropped somewhatoff theopening dog price, so one of their infamous adjustments. But according to some thatis what makes them "sharp".

I won't be able to do this everyday, but I will do it when I get the chance. It will give of some sort of refernces anyways. Everyone claims to think they know, bt until you start getting it down and tracking it it s easy to assume.

So to recap the teams they seem to be taking stands on are:

Minn
LA
Balt
Mon
St Lou

 

[ClayHenry]

nice work Want, thanks.

 

[lander]

They were begging people to take Cincy earlier.

 

[ellenwisdom]

Horses

 

[wantitall4moi]

One more that has seen alot of action so far is the Bos/At, most places have moved 6-8 cents, some more. But Pin and Canbet have stood pat at or near the opener.

I guess Pin would be taking some sort of a stand on Atl here as they have refused to move their number on Bos. But the lines are all over the place on this game from -120 at Can to -137 at MIl. Dog numbers are anywhere from +110 to +123. So there is a 3 cent scalp. I just don't use the book with the best dog price.

I didn't see the Cinci differentials. I saw them at -112/104, which was right in line with what I saw everywhere else.

EDIT, should have also said Cinci has moved to 106/102, but everyone else has moved as well. So they are pretty much staying in line with that game.

 

[lander]

Great stuff Want.

It would be VERY interesting to see the long term results.

 

[wantitall4moi]

LOL, it never fails, Bos just went to -128 at Pin, but still -120 at Canbet.

 

[lander]

Want,
JUST brainstorming here, but how valuable would it be for the Line Lines to have a timeline showing all of pinnacles moves for a given game?

It would take some effort, and Henry's consent, but just curious.

 

[wantitall4moi]

I track numbers, and I notice when Pin is off by these margins all the time. That is why I have always been convinced they are a scalp book. Whne you see them upwards of a dime off and they supposedy have the market cornered, then something is up for sure.

Bet Jamaica is the only book that was consistantly within a nickle of them, even beating them a couple times. But who is Bet Jamaica? If I had to guess they simply tail Pins numbers and go somewhere in between just to get a little action. That is pretty much the only wayto attract business these days, especially in bases. So maybe they are taking what we have been discussing and taken it to the next level. Put your numbers somewhere between Pin and everyone elses, offer a few rogues that are even better, have smallish limits, and hope you survive.

I am not familair with them at all but that makes sense to me.

But as far as Pin s concerned, I don't keep the records, I just know that they are always "right". And Ilike to do goofy experiments like this from time to time, WHEN I have the time, I was going to wait til after the AS break but the lines were off mre than usual today so seemed as good a spot as any.

 

[wantitall4moi]

I have those to, but when you float the mouse over it doesn't allow you to cut and paste. But if you go to Tip ex you can see all the moves and the times they happen, right down to the second. So you can also see who moved first and when the others moved. I don't get thattechnical, unless I miss a big move when I am driving into town or back home and lose 3 to 5 cents. That pisses me off. But not sure if that is all that valuable.

Then you are jumping from a calculus level into a quantum pysics level. a move here, a buy back there. an actual money move versus a move on air. That is why it is hard to judge these things. Some places just move because others do, while others do actually move when they take a big bet. You just can't tell.

BTW Bos now at -132

 

[lander]

Thx for the feedback.

Bos was -121 @ Holly

 

[wantitall4moi]

I took the -120 at Canbet, now I am waiting for the top off.

BUT if history is any indication this one will come back to where it started, maybe even lower.

With big moves like the one this game took in a short period, they come back about 60% of the time.

As a matter of fact it already has. It is back to 128 already. So I already lost my shot at the 4 cents.

 

[lander]

If you're on steam get this one ...

958 cin/cle U10 -05 @ Holly

 

[wantitall4moi]

Don't have an account there.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Now am waiting for the mve on Sea/St Lou game at Pinnacle. Moving at a few places. Anywhere from -151 (Pin) Others are -154 to -170, most are around -160.

And where Pin had the best dog price earlier, they are one of the worst now.

I expect a big mve soon.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Well was sort of right on Bos as it has come back quite abit.

BUT talk about begging. St Lou went UP everywhere, and Pin has actually dropped a penny to 150. They did take a bet on Sea early that moved them 6 cents, but hanging a line 15 cents better the other way HAD to even them out didn't it? Well if it did they didn't show it, and they moved it back another penny.

This is certainly a line that bears notice if we are to think Pin is "sharp". While one "loser" doesn't tell the tale, they are definately far from the norm with this number.

EDIT: NOW that number is 146. Maybe Pin was right all along? The others are coming back now as well. Good case study on that one number. Along with my X Files theory, on where they have one game a day they take a major stand on, this would obviously fit that criteria.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Maybe Pin isn't as "smart" as people think. Obviously only one day of testing, but not too impressive.

Az won, so there number that was 10-15 cents less was way off.

They were right with Mon as they hung tough at 10-12 cents less than everyone on Tor.

They ended up right in line on Phi/Balt so we can throw that one out I guess, as they had "bad" numbers both ways when all was said and done.

St Louis was the disaster as the led all moves away from them all day. While others stood tough. I find it very hard to believe that people were actually betting the number Pin had up on Sea since they weren't even in the ball park. For themost part they were +138 to +141 while others had +145 or so.

Fla was a borderline number, and they also won. Pin was more or less on the right side of the move as TB did take a lot of late money, so that one is a question mark as well. But they did have a nice number to bet into if you liked Fla.

They are still way off on the LA/Ana line and that game is still pending. So I can't see where Pin was so good today.

As far as the openers for tomorrow, they are off the standards on Col/SF, Az/LA, and WAY off on NYY/Det, unless there was aline move I didn't see?

 

[miaplus3]

Wan, i get the most benefit by the line moves on soccer, especially the obscure stuff.
Baseball moves seem to be sorta vanilla

 

[PatPatriot]

Its better to follow the bases with interleague out of the way...I play dogs and I notice if I take the best dog line from pin its a loser...this weekend was a disaster for me