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Picks.
- Thread starter RunMaker
- Start date
Alright, from now on 60% picks. 60-40, +16.01 or better, over the next 100 picks.
PICK #1:
Fri 6/12 121 Bolivia (Copa America) pk +371 o3½ +279 7:30PM 122 Mexico (Copa America) pk -466 u3½ -329
1. Bolivia/Mex Und 3.5, (-329), 3.29/1.00..................................................
0-0 FT
1-0, +1.00
The proceedings are now underway. As easy as could be. This game had the smell of an under miles away.
Another thing that is clearly evident is that Brazil is highly overrated. Brazil right now is -2 (+147) > Peru.
Taking Peru +3, if offered, will be another no sweat winner. Or, in the worst case scenario, a draw. Brazil is in no condition right now
to beat Peru by 4 goals.
BECAUSE.... WE FUCKING BELIEVE ........ IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS!!!
AMEN!
PICK #2:
2. Nadal -1.5 > Monfils, (-155), 1.55/1.00..................................................
AMEN!
PICK #2:
Sat 6/13 | 411 R.Nadal Games Won | -1½ -155 | o23½ +110 | ||||
| 7:30AM | 412 G.Monfils Games Won | +1½ +125 | u23½ -140 |
2. Nadal -1.5 > Monfils, (-155), 1.55/1.00..................................................
BECAUSE.... WE FUCKING BELIEVE ........ IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS!!!
AMEN!
PICK #2:
Sat 6/13 411 R.Nadal Games Won
-1½ -155 o23½ +110 7:30AM 412 G.Monfils Games Won +1½ +125 u23½ -140
2. Nadal -1.5 > Monfils, (-155), 1.55/1.00..................................................
Nadal wins 6-3, 6-4
2-0, +2.00
Monfils simply didn't care. He's very rarely ever serious. That + his dislike for grass = foregone conclusion.
Kung fu style!!!
It's true Nadal is gaining confidence, but he is still definitely not there yet. You don't just instantly turn it on. You have to build up to it and then your ongoing, improving form will propel you further and further. Right now Rafael Nadal is not Rafael Nadal. His current ranking of #10 is a more accurate reflection of the current state of his game, just as Fed's level had dropped and he had a corresponding ranking of #7 or whatever it is. Right now Fed is a legit #2 and his results and play reflect that. This match has a lot of similarities to when Nadal played Horacio Zeballos in the Vina final(2013) and he was a 1.03 fave. Nadal lost SU in 3 sets. His game was simply not there yet.
I think there's an overreaction here. In the first 3 grass matches for Rafa there was a huge discount in lines. And, speaking objectively, he did not play well or impress. Baggy and Tomic, both currently shitty players, took Rafa to 3 sets. Monfils was disinterested and so it was an easy pass to the final. Rafa has faced 25 bp's in his 3 matches and Troicki will definitely have his chance to snare a break. On the other hand, Troicki has had probably the best serving performance of the week. He was only broken once in his 4 matches until the 3rd set against Cilic. Also, Nadal was fortunate to avoid Rosol in his first match (big hitting, big serving) and then Kohly in the semis (a bad matchup for Rafa in his present state).
Bottom line, Rafa is not Rafa right now. If he makes it through the final without being broken, there's a good likelihood this still wins. If he gets broken at least once, the odds will skyrocket in favor of a Troicki easy cover. To beat the cap, Rafa has to have a clean sheet for his service games and he will likely have to muster one break in one set and two breaks in the other set (6-3, 6-3). Troicki's serve will be too strong to allow a 6-1 or 6-2 in a set, IMO. If Troicki ends up serving first in the 1st set, then Rafa will likely need a double break in both sets. I can almost guarantee that will not happen.
Rafa hasn't been in a grass final since 2011 (almost 4 years) and hasn't covered the spread in a grass final since 2010. And the Nadal of 2010/2011 was ten times more potent on grass.
Also, sometimes the total will accurately reflect the resulting cap outcome for the match. In this case I believe it applies, just as it did for the Monfils match.
The price is incredibly steep, but this should be a nice relaxing win. And if it loses, the maximum differential would be a half game, IMO. If they were to play this match 6 times (given their current respective forms), I reckon Nadal wouldn't cover -5.5 in any of them.
PICK #3:
It's true Nadal is gaining confidence, but he is still definitely not there yet. You don't just instantly turn it on. You have to build up to it and then your ongoing, improving form will propel you further and further. Right now Rafael Nadal is not Rafael Nadal. His current ranking of #10 is a more accurate reflection of the current state of his game, just as Fed's level had dropped and he had a corresponding ranking of #7 or whatever it is. Right now Fed is a legit #2 and his results and play reflect that. This match has a lot of similarities to when Nadal played Horacio Zeballos in the Vina final(2013) and he was a 1.03 fave. Nadal lost SU in 3 sets. His game was simply not there yet.
I think there's an overreaction here. In the first 3 grass matches for Rafa there was a huge discount in lines. And, speaking objectively, he did not play well or impress. Baggy and Tomic, both currently shitty players, took Rafa to 3 sets. Monfils was disinterested and so it was an easy pass to the final. Rafa has faced 25 bp's in his 3 matches and Troicki will definitely have his chance to snare a break. On the other hand, Troicki has had probably the best serving performance of the week. He was only broken once in his 4 matches until the 3rd set against Cilic. Also, Nadal was fortunate to avoid Rosol in his first match (big hitting, big serving) and then Kohly in the semis (a bad matchup for Rafa in his present state).
Bottom line, Rafa is not Rafa right now. If he makes it through the final without being broken, there's a good likelihood this still wins. If he gets broken at least once, the odds will skyrocket in favor of a Troicki easy cover. To beat the cap, Rafa has to have a clean sheet for his service games and he will likely have to muster one break in one set and two breaks in the other set (6-3, 6-3). Troicki's serve will be too strong to allow a 6-1 or 6-2 in a set, IMO. If Troicki ends up serving first in the 1st set, then Rafa will likely need a double break in both sets. I can almost guarantee that will not happen.
Rafa hasn't been in a grass final since 2011 (almost 4 years) and hasn't covered the spread in a grass final since 2010. And the Nadal of 2010/2011 was ten times more potent on grass.
Also, sometimes the total will accurately reflect the resulting cap outcome for the match. In this case I believe it applies, just as it did for the Monfils match.
The price is incredibly steep, but this should be a nice relaxing win. And if it loses, the maximum differential would be a half game, IMO. If they were to play this match 6 times (given their current respective forms), I reckon Nadal wouldn't cover -5.5 in any of them.
PICK #3:
| Sun 6/14 | 409 R.Nadal Games Won | -5½ +250 | o20½ -165 | ||||
| 8:30AM | 410 V.Troicki Games Won | +5½ -325 | u20½ +135 |
Price has dipped down to -260, but I firmly contend that they are wrong.
Another similar situation is when Fed was making his return to form after his down year of 2013 and he lost at the beginning of the year in the Brisbane final to Hewitt as a -454 fave. His game simply wasn't wholly in place yet. And going into that final he was a fave of 1.14, 1.13 and 1.11 in the earlier rounds.
They are simply wrong here.
Another similar situation is when Fed was making his return to form after his down year of 2013 and he lost at the beginning of the year in the Brisbane final to Hewitt as a -454 fave. His game simply wasn't wholly in place yet. And going into that final he was a fave of 1.14, 1.13 and 1.11 in the earlier rounds.
They are simply wrong here.
Kung fu style!!!
PICK #3:
Sun 6/14 409 R.Nadal Games Won -5½ +250 o20½ -165 8:30AM 410 V.Troicki Games Won
+5½ -325 u20½ +135
Nadal wins 7-6, 6-3
3-0, +3.00
The difference in the match was simply mental. Troicki only let Rafa win 4 pts against his serve in the 1st set. In the 2nd set he had a game with a double fault and a few unforced errors, and so he gifted Rafa the break. Rafa 1/1 on BP's. Troicki 0/1 on BP's. Troicki really should have seen 2 TB's in that match.
Will be interesting to see how Rafa does in London. Potential quarters matchup with Wawrinka, a quality semis opponent and then likely Murray in the final. Still very hard to see him winning that.
31-28, 8:42, 2Q
PICK #5:
5. OVER
PICK #5:
| Live In-Play Basketball | Spread | Total Points | Team Total Points | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors - Live In Play wagering during every commercial break - Internet Only | |||||||
| Sun 6/14 | 9709 Cleveland Cavaliers | +5½ -110 | o193 -110 | o94 -115 | u94 -115 | ||
| 8:00PM | 9710 Golden State Warriors | -5½ -110 | u193 -110 | o99 -115 | u99 -115 |
5. OVER
PICK #4:
LIVE : 0-0 at 28 minutes
Soccer - .COLOMBIA vs VENEZUELA - Team to score next goal ( Current score 0:0 ) COLOMBIA -159
1.59/1.00...................
Venezuela scored. 1-0 Venezuela FT as well.
3-1, +1.41
Forgot to add a video, thus this pick was destined to lose. I'm not too much in opposition to this selection as I examine it after the fact. I reasoned that Colombia was the healthy and rightful fave, and that the 1st goal would be the game decider. Given Venezuela's long history of not having high-caliber teams, this appeared reasonable. It was aligned with the rightful pre-assessment of the match that Colombia is the better team, but allowing a better price within reasonable time constraints.
I think Colombia had something like 10 corners to 2 at about 55 minutes into the game. But the goal never came and they just weren't clicking.
31-28, 8:42, 2Q
PICK #5:
Live In-Play Basketball Spread Total Points Team Total Points Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors - Live In Play wagering during every commercial break - Internet Only Sun 6/14 9709 Cleveland Cavaliers +5½ -110 o193 -110 o94 -115 u94 -115 8:00PM 9710 Golden State Warriors -5½ -110 u193 -110 o99 -115 u99 -115
5. OVER
104-91 GS wins.
4-1, +2.41
Got in at a reasonable time and with an attainable total. They really should be having a foul-fest at the end of these games when a team is trailing by 7 to 10 points, but they are so horribly managed that they do not maximize those situations. But it is what it is. The games will go where they will go.
1. Bolivia/Mex Und 3.5, (-329), 3.29/1.00..................................................0-0
2. Nadal -1.5 > Monfils, (-155), 1.55/1.00.................................................12-7
3. Troicki +5.5 > Nadal, (-325), 3.25/1.00.................................................13-9
4. LIVE: Colombia next goal (0:0), (-159), 1.59/1.00...................................1-0 VEN
5. LIVE: CLE/GS ^193, (-110), 1.10/1.00...................................................104-91
4-1, +2.41
All were sound. Just the pricing on the Colombia pick was ugly. Difference of 0.49.
Alright, rump rises and the fart is released.
Few words. Fed and Murray win. This is a shot on Nadal at -185. Take my chances.
PICK #6: (combo)
TEN: FED > KOHLSCHREIBER, (-610)
TEN: MURRAY > LU, (-1500)
TEN: NADAL > DOLGOPOLOV, (-415)
[-185 ODDS]
6. COMBO: FED/MURRAY/NADAL, (-185), 1.85/1.00.....................................
Few words. Fed and Murray win. This is a shot on Nadal at -185. Take my chances.
PICK #6: (combo)
TEN: FED > KOHLSCHREIBER, (-610)
TEN: MURRAY > LU, (-1500)
TEN: NADAL > DOLGOPOLOV, (-415)
[-185 ODDS]
6. COMBO: FED/MURRAY/NADAL, (-185), 1.85/1.00.....................................
Looking for a clean winner for Tuesday, but tis not to be found yet.
Do you go with Karlovic -2.5 > Giraldo or Stackhouse -2.5 > Gulbis? Both appear to be very favorable bets, but simply no guarantees. Also have the feeling Berdych will annihilate Victor today on the -5.5....
Anyways, if an extra winner is not to be found, be entertained. If you are only to watch one fart on youtube today, let it be
this classic at 2:22 (Le pet exploration nasale et bucale):
Do you go with Karlovic -2.5 > Giraldo or Stackhouse -2.5 > Gulbis? Both appear to be very favorable bets, but simply no guarantees. Also have the feeling Berdych will annihilate Victor today on the -5.5....
Anyways, if an extra winner is not to be found, be entertained. If you are only to watch one fart on youtube today, let it be
this classic at 2:22 (Le pet exploration nasale et bucale):
PICK #7: (combo)
_________
- 6/17/2015 10:05 PM Props Baseball 2928 SFO/SEA no score 1st inn* -160 vs SFO/SEA score 1st inn yes
Fixed Price
M.Bumgarner & F.Hernandez must start for action - 6/19/2015 7:30 PM International Soccer 72 Chile (Copa America)* -297 vs Bolivia (Copa America)
- 6/17/2015 8:00 PM Halftime Soccer 51 Colombia (Copa America)/Brazil (Copa America)* Over 1½ -300 for Game
1.00 pays 1.90.........
FUCKING SING IT, MY MAN! SING IT!!!!
PICK #8: (combo)
_________
1.00 pays 1.64.........
PICK #8: (combo)
_________
- 6/19/2015 7:30 PM International Soccer 72 Chile (Copa America)* -306 vs Bolivia (Copa America)
- 6/19/2015 8:45 AM ATP Tennis 101 Roger Federer* -1575 vs Florian Mayer
- 6/19/2015 8:45 AM ATP Tennis 447 G.Simon Games Won/M.Raonic Games Won* Under 24½ -115
1.00 pays 1.64.........
