I use to write up most of my plays. I'll tell you what happens, if your right and get on a roll ( I have) everyone appreciates it, when you go on a losing streak (I have and most will during a course of a season) they crucify you. Then you think about all of the research, stats, articles, mags, and newspapers, that you go through to find out things, (a lot of effort in itself), why waste your time to possibly get crucified again.
The people who gamble all the time know which posters to follow. If some people would take the time to look up stats instead of opening every thread they would probably win more games. JMO
The people who gamble all the time know which posters to follow. If some people would take the time to look up stats instead of opening every thread they would probably win more games. JMO
I def do love reading the write ups. But if it's a loser, then it doesn't mean much. I still appreciate the time the poster takes to make a write up. But if someone posted a 60% record with standard -110 juice and no write up. Who the hell wouldn't tail them ???
These are your "Write-Ups." There's nothing in here that I could EVER learn, except for the Girls who can't play Video Games because the Power is out..
Perhaps the Title of this thread should be "Picks without GOOD Writeups Why Bother." Dude please. Putting Crap on Paper does not help anyone. Maybe win a few games, then Lecture the Choir? I'm catching a plane to Nassau in a few minutes to inspect some damage to my property so this is my last post in this thread, and maybe my post this week on this site..77 Consecutive Stock Winners? Yep. I got some Swamp Land for Sale in the Bahamas. How many acres you want?
Cincinnati +4 MIAMI OH The Bearcats have beaten Miami straight up 10 times in a row. This year they are getting points. They actually played Michigan pretty tough last week and their defense played particularly well. Even though they lost 36-14, Michigan scored 9 points very late in the game with a safety and a pick 6. Playing Miami OH will be a big step down in class, and they will be hungry for a win. Miami already lost this year to Marshall (31-26) a team ranked lower than the Bearcats.
Georgia Tech -2 UCF The Yellow Jackets had 655 yards of offense against Tennessee in week 1 and lost the game by one point, despite having 2 critical turnovers. Meanwhile the George OLeary Liars had a body bag game against FIU and then have been worrying all week about Irma. The coaches wives are yelling at their husbands because they have no air conditioning in their house. All of the players girlfriends have no power in their house, so they cant go over there and play video games after practice. Should be an easy GT win against a very distracted inferior opponent.
Lsu -6.5 MISS ST The Bulldogs have been lighting it up, scoring an average of 53 ppg against the likes of Charleston Southern and LA Tech. Not so fast my friend. This week, theyll be facing a real defense. LSU shutout a normally potent BYU team and did not allow them past their own 47 yd line. Guice will have a big day running the ball, taking the Bulldog crowd out of the game early.
Air force +25.5 MICHIGAN Obviously Michigan is going to win this game. Air Force is going to keep running the option no matter what the score is. They had a week off and this will be a HUGE game for them. If they can run over 80 plays, Michigan wont have enough time to cover. Michigan is averaging 35 points per game. That means the Falcons only a touchdown and a field goal to cover. If Air Force can play a clean game, and get 1 turnover, they shouldnt have any problem here taking all of these points.
Virginia tech -22.5 ECU I Googled the definition of horror show and found ECUs defense on the front page search. The Pirates D has given up over 600 yards of offense in each of their first two games, against James Madison (ugh) and West Virginia, losing by 36 points to WVU. Oh, by the way, Virginia Tech beat West Virginia in Week 1. Laying the wood and taking the Hokies.
Perhaps the Title of this thread should be "Picks without GOOD Writeups Why Bother." Dude please. Putting Crap on Paper does not help anyone. Maybe win a few games, then Lecture the Choir? I'm catching a plane to Nassau in a few minutes to inspect some damage to my property so this is my last post in this thread, and maybe my post this week on this site..77 Consecutive Stock Winners? Yep. I got some Swamp Land for Sale in the Bahamas. How many acres you want?
Cincinnati +4 MIAMI OH The Bearcats have beaten Miami straight up 10 times in a row. This year they are getting points. They actually played Michigan pretty tough last week and their defense played particularly well. Even though they lost 36-14, Michigan scored 9 points very late in the game with a safety and a pick 6. Playing Miami OH will be a big step down in class, and they will be hungry for a win. Miami already lost this year to Marshall (31-26) a team ranked lower than the Bearcats.
Georgia Tech -2 UCF The Yellow Jackets had 655 yards of offense against Tennessee in week 1 and lost the game by one point, despite having 2 critical turnovers. Meanwhile the George OLeary Liars had a body bag game against FIU and then have been worrying all week about Irma. The coaches wives are yelling at their husbands because they have no air conditioning in their house. All of the players girlfriends have no power in their house, so they cant go over there and play video games after practice. Should be an easy GT win against a very distracted inferior opponent.
Lsu -6.5 MISS ST The Bulldogs have been lighting it up, scoring an average of 53 ppg against the likes of Charleston Southern and LA Tech. Not so fast my friend. This week, theyll be facing a real defense. LSU shutout a normally potent BYU team and did not allow them past their own 47 yd line. Guice will have a big day running the ball, taking the Bulldog crowd out of the game early.
Air force +25.5 MICHIGAN Obviously Michigan is going to win this game. Air Force is going to keep running the option no matter what the score is. They had a week off and this will be a HUGE game for them. If they can run over 80 plays, Michigan wont have enough time to cover. Michigan is averaging 35 points per game. That means the Falcons only a touchdown and a field goal to cover. If Air Force can play a clean game, and get 1 turnover, they shouldnt have any problem here taking all of these points.
Virginia tech -22.5 ECU I Googled the definition of horror show and found ECUs defense on the front page search. The Pirates D has given up over 600 yards of offense in each of their first two games, against James Madison (ugh) and West Virginia, losing by 36 points to WVU. Oh, by the way, Virginia Tech beat West Virginia in Week 1. Laying the wood and taking the Hokies.
I think it depends on the poster. My system is all numbers based. Would anyone really want to read all of the number stuff on each game? Plus, it is time consuming to write all of it up. Plus, you open yourself up for scrutiny...you may hit 55-60%, but if people don't like the system, they will start ragging it.
Here's an example. My system produces a final score for the game. It said that Houston would beat Arizona 57-6, because of Houston solid projected run D and Arizona putred projected D. Did I really think that would happen? No. If I put that out here, I would get lambasted. Did it win? Yes. Not by 51, but it won.
Here's an example. My system produces a final score for the game. It said that Houston would beat Arizona 57-6, because of Houston solid projected run D and Arizona putred projected D. Did I really think that would happen? No. If I put that out here, I would get lambasted. Did it win? Yes. Not by 51, but it won.
Have a safe trip and I hope your property is ok......and yes I do have 77 consecutive profitable stock trades. My forum has been around for 14 years. www.mrmarketishuge.com
Bobby- It's not like we're asking for some inside info you got in the locker room or from a player or staff member of a college team. Not that any of us get that. You've been successful at your total plays, and I fail to see why sharing your reasons for your plays would effect your future success in any way. RX bettors certainly don't change the line. Ain't none of us here worrying the books or changing the outcome of a game. No write-ups are fine, though..to each his own. But I've learned a lot about handicapping football on this forum(and others), and I thank those willing to share their knowledge.
Totally agree.
Most share no rationale at all. No one points out interesting angles IMO other than the usual drab stuff here and there.
EXAMPLE:
This week Chicago, Detroit, GB all covered.
Not one poster says on Monday: "hey, all three NFC North teams covered, how about Minnesota - 3 tonight?"
Sure that is not the only way to look at the Monday night game... but not ONE poster pointed it out. (this is just an example, I could give 30 more, just this last weekend)
Yes, there are some good handicappers on this site, they must know what they are doing to some extent, but nobody is really helping others.
It is not so much about some user here changing the line, I guess. But for example take a total: I am pretty sure that a large part of setting totals for sportsbooks is done "automatically", using lots of data/stats and connecting that data to come up with a number for a certain matchup. It probably isn't 100% and there is some adjusting done manually afterwards before releasing the line, but a good part should be stats-/number based.
So a serious bettor is pretty much going up against the bookies with the goal to come up with a better "formula" to calculate a total, based more or less on the same available data. So if you manage to do that and realize that you can beat totals because you calculate them better than the sportsbooks, why would you publish that data openly? Doesn't really make much sense because you give your edge away. Maybe nobody will read your threads and info here at therx, but if you really beat the books constantly, your threads/posts should receive some attention....
Way harder to reverse engineer your "edge" if you just post the picks without reasoning.
Having said all that, I can easily write up some reasoning without giving away that info...but in that case the write-up probably itself isn't really that helpful because it would mostly be a summary of nice tidbits read somewhere else or information that doesn't affect the betting line much or is already included in the line...
On the other hand there are so many different approaches to handicapping, that some other approaches aren't really affected that much: If I select my spots carefully and e.g. I am betting based on things like players missing (information advantage, knowing about a player being out before the books do or thinking that the loss of player X is more/less important than the betting line reflects) or other things that you can't easily put into a formula or calculate in a standardized way, then I can probably do a really good write-up with valuable information without possibly hurting myself much on future bets.
