Picks Using Play By Play Analysis - 2015 Season Long Thread

[NBAComputerMan]

*********************************************************************
Play By Play Picks: (Underdogs with expected advantages in key stats)
*********************************************************************
Kansas City +7 (Best Bet) over GREEN BAY
San Francisco +7 over ARIZONA
Jacksonville +13.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo +3 over MIAMI

Tennessee +3.5 looks very good but 0-2 Indy is in a desparate spot so I am not playing it.
Redskins +4 also look live, but same thing 0-2 Giants, short week and on the road so nixing this one as well.

Please read below to find out how all this works....


This analysis is from evaluating the results of each NFL game on a play by play level. I download every play into a database then I run a computer program that analyzes what happened on the play. I create ratings for both offense and defense for the following:

• Running
• Passing
• Overall (Running and Passing combined)
• Big Plays
• Red Zone

I then adjust all the statistics based on the quality of the opponent.

What you see below are the fruits of my labor. I hope that by looking deep within the game, we may be able to uncover some good analysis for wagering.

Overall - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective
Run - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for runs only
Pass - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for pass only
Big Play - This is how well a team effectively creates big plays (10+ running 20+ passing) on offense AND stops big plays on defense
RedZone - This is how EFFICIENT the team is in the red zone on offense AND how adept they are in the red zone on defense.

With only two weeks of data, we don't know much, in theory we should get better as the year goes on.


Play By Play Analysis For Week 2

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NYG	200	110	90	7	-1.16
WAS	214	104	110	-6	0.75
Advantage	WAS - 14	NYG - 6	WAS - 20	NYG - 13	WAS - 1.91

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NYJ	192	90	102	2	2.16
PHI	173	73	100	-7	1.24
Advantage	NYJ - 19	NYJ - 17	NYJ - 2	NYJ - 9	NYJ - 0.92

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
HOU	198	97	101	-12	-0.57
TB	181	101	80	-14	-1.06
Advantage	HOU - 17	TB - 4	HOU - 21	HOU - 2	HOU - 0.49

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
CAR	192	92	100	2	-0.24
NO	203	105	98	-12	-2.02
Advantage	NO - 11	NO - 13	CAR - 2	CAR - 14	CAR - 1.79

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
PIT	191	90	101	12	0.88
STL	197	103	94	10	0.70
Advantage	STL - 6	STL - 13	PIT - 7	PIT - 2	PIT - 0.18

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
MIN	196	104	92	1	-0.09
SD	194	88	106	-8	-0.86
Advantage	MIN - 2	MIN - 16	SD - 14	MIN - 9	MIN - 0.77

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
ATL	200	100	100	-5	0.07
DAL	210	103	107	5	-0.17
Advantage	DAL - 10	DAL - 3	DAL - 7	DAL - 10	ATL - 0.24

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
IND	196	104	92	-8	-1.81
TEN	210	102	108	7	0.66
Advantage	TEN - 14	IND - 2	TEN - 16	TEN - 15	TEN - 2.46

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
CLE	200	98	102	1	-0.80
OAK	200	104	96	-15	1.99
Advantage	OAK - 0	OAK - 6	CLE - 6	CLE - 16	OAK - 2.79

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NE	192	82	110	-7	0.05
JAX	199	108	91	15	-0.08
Advantage	JAX - 7	JAX - 26	NE - 19	JAX - 22	NE - 0.13

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
BAL	194	100	94	8	-2.15
CIN	194	96	98	11	-2.83
Advantage	CIN - 0	BAL - 4	CIN - 4	CIN - 3	BAL - 0.68

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
ARZ	208	102	106	7	3.45
SF	224	120	104	5	-1.34
Advantage	SF - 16	SF - 18	ARZ - 2	ARZ - 2	ARZ - 4.79

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
SEA	203	105	98	2	-1.12
CHI	184	98	86	-2	-2.83
Advantage	SEA - 19	SEA - 7	SEA - 12	SEA - 4	SEA - 1.70

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
MIA	200	96	104	0	0.12
BUF	212	110	102	10	1.35
Advantage	BUF - 12	BUF - 14	MIA - 2	BUF - 10	BUF - 1.22

Best of luck to all.

 

[3pointdog]

KC +7 is a good play, a lot to give that team coming off that bad beat, IMO

 

[Biz]

What do the numbers mean? How do you analyze the results?

 

[indiana]

NBA/man............welcome to RX posting...........sure you will enjoy, appreciate your thoughts...........BOL with your action...........indy

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NYG	200	110	90	7	-1.16
WAS	214	104	110	-6	0.75
Advantage	WAS - 14	NYG - 6	WAS - 20	NYG - 13	WAS - 1.91

Thursday Night Football
What The Play By Play Numbers Say:

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NYG	200	110	90	7	-1.16
WAS	214	104	110	-6	0.75
Advantage	WAS - 14	NYG - 6	WAS - 20	NYG - 13	WAS - 1.91

Who Will Win The Overall Line Of Scrimmage Battle?....Washington
Which Team Will Run and Stop the run more effectively?...Slight edge - NY Giants
Which Team Will Pass and Stop the pass more effectively?...Washington
Which Team Will Have More Big Plays (Runs >= 10, Passes >= 20) and Stop Big Plays?..Big Edge - NY Giants
Which Team Will Be Most Effective Scoring In The Red Zone and Stopping Scoring In The Red Zone?...Washington

So overall this game is a tough one to call. The game seems likely to be in control by the Redskins. But since the Giants appear likely to have more big plays, this could counter act that.

The Redskins are traveling, and off a short week so this should hamper their ratings, and the Giants are a desperate (0-2) so we can expect their best effort.

I only like to play underdogs where there is good probability they have advantages in key areas. Washington does here, but other factors (travel, short week, desperate opponent) could influence this game, so I am passing tonight.

I do think the numbers reflect a fairly low scoring game providing the Giants don’t hit too many big plays.

 

[Ekkyjaja]

Pretty cool stuff here man. BOl with your system. Bring home the bacon 49ers!

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Hey Guys,

(1-3) last week, with the Bills being our only winner. Jags didn’t run the ball as effectively as the Play By Play numbers would have indicated and were destroyed. And the 49ers got off to a God awful start thanks
to atrocious QB play by Mr. Kaepernick.

And as for the Chiefs, their decimated secondary was the key, injuries are making data analysis extremely tough as teams are up and down based on if starters or backups
are playing.

In hindsight, I should not have even tried to give out analysis after only two weeks!....But I couldn’t help myself.

Now that we have three weeks of data, I have created my own Power Rankings for each of the teams (See below).

I have done my own big data analysis using my trusty laptop, of what statistics are the most important in deciding who wins, and most times, also covers the spread.
Be keying in on these stats and combining them into ONE Power Rank stat, below is a chart of how well each team is doing in these key statistics.

As you can see, the Power rating has a nice correlation to a team’s WINS/LOSSES. There are however some “surprises” which may mean some teams might be Over/Under rated at the present time.

Potentially Underrated Teams:
Tennessee (1-2)
Seattle (1-2)
St. Louis (1-2)
Baltimore (0-3)

Potentially Overrated Teams:
Carolina(3-0)
Atlanta(3-0)
Minnesota(2-1)
Oakland(2-1)

Since the public doesn’t have access to these kind of numbers, we may be able to take advantage of them as they are likely to be looking at a team’s overall record when deciding on who to bet.

NOTE: These numbers also take into account the strength of schedule, but does not, unfortunately, adjust for injuries. (So Pittsburgh w/o Big Ben and Dallas without Dez and Romo are over valued)

Remember, below is NOT your traditional Power ranking of who the BEST team is (The formula doesn’t use Points For/Points Against!), all it is showing is how well a team is performing the critical stats that determines Wins/Losses and Covers for an NFL game based on my research.
A Power Rating of around 81 is considered AVEARGE (a probable .500 ball club). In theory, the higher my Power Rank value, the better the team’s record should be. I will calculate this each week and we can see how it does.

Play By Play POWER RANK	TEAM	Power	WINS	LOSSES
1	ARZ	100.57	3	0
2	BUF	95.5	2	1
3	DAL	93.2	2	1
4	GB	88.45	3	0
5	NE	88.43	3	0
6	DEN	88.33	3	0
7	TEN	88.25	1	2
8	PIT	86.33	2	1
9	CIN	84.38	3	0
10	SEA	83.64	1	2
11	STL	82.82	1	2
12	NYJ	82.73	2	1
13	SD	82.3	1	2
14	BAL	81.66	0	3
15	CAR	80.82	3	0
16	PHI	80.5	1	2
17	NYG	80.38	1	2
18	WAS	80.34	1	2
19	NO	78.43	0	3
20	OAK	78.37	2	1
21	JAX	77.81	1	2
22	KC	77.79	1	2
23	ATL	77.34	3	0
24	MIA	77.23	1	2
25	CLE	76.49	1	2
26	IND	76.36	1	2
27	DET	76.22	0	3
28	SF	76.04	1	2
29	MIN	74.09	2	1
30	HOU	69.65	1	2
31	CHI	68.5	0	3
32	TB	68.34	1	2

Thursday Night Play By Play Analysis: Ravens At Steelers

Team	Power Rating	Power Rating Difference	Spread	Spread Value
BAL	81.66
PIT	86.33	+4.7	+3	7.7***
Spread favors PIT +3

The Spread Value is calculated as follows:
1. If the Favorite has a bigger Power Rating than the Underdog (usually the case) then use the (Power Rating Difference / the spread).
2. If the Underdog has a bigger Power Rating than the Favorite, then use the Power Rating Difference PLUS the spread.

** Vegas has said Ben is worth 5 points to this line, so our spread value of 7.7 should be reduced by 5 (so should be 2.7), so the number is high enough to make this a very slight lean to Pittsburgh.

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Week 4 Play By Play Analysis Picks...

Week 4 Play By Play Analysis Picks.... Guys, I have hopefully simplified all my tables into one, this will be the format used for the rest of the year. The Numbers Explained: Power Rating How well a team is at the most crucial aspects of winning an NFL game (As determined by my own big data research) Spread Value Reflects how much value we see in backing the FAVORITE versus the vegas line, after comparing our Power Rating differential. Currently I have set a 3.0 or more threshold for betting the Favorite, and any negative value we back the underdog. Predicted Pass Success Rate Predicts what percent of the plays in the passing game will be successful (based on down and distance) Predicted Big Play Success Rate Predicts what percent of the plays will go for runs > 10 and passes > 19 Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play Predicts how many points per red zone play the team will obtain. Differentials How much better the favorite is than the underdog (negative values favor the underdog)

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BAL	81.66	-6.94	57.33	12.99	1.81
3.0
PIT	86.34		56.33	14.03	1.85
Differentials	-4.68		1.00	-1.04	-0.04
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: PIT	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NYJ	82.73	3.81	47.83	11.40	1.79
1.5
MIA	77.24		47.83	15.16	0.27
Differentials	5.50		0.00	-3.76	1.52
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: NYJ	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ATL	77.34	1.21	56.17	24.54	1.48
6.5
HOU	69.66		51.00	16.14	2.36
Differentials	7.69		5.17	8.40	-0.88
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ATL	Worth A Bet?

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
OAK	78.37	3.14	59.33	23.17	2.07
3.0
CHI	68.50		46.00	22.59	0.71
Differentials	9.87		13.33	0.58	1.36
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: OAK	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
CIN	84.39	1.68	55.50	20.88	2.11
4.0
KC	77.79		49.50	17.50	3.40
Differentials	6.59		6.00	3.38	-1.29
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CIN	Worth A Bet?

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
IND	76.37	-9.92	57.67	17.15	2.64
9.0
JAX	77.82		49.67	18.78	1.90
Differentials	-1.45		8.00	-1.63	0.75
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: JAX	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

---

​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BUF	95.50	2.84	60.17	18.11	1.95
5.5
NYG	80.38		57.83	18.04	1.24
Differentials	15.12		2.33	0.07	0.71
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: BUF	Worth A Bet?

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
PHI	80.51	0.14	47.67	21.81	0.96
3.0
WAS	80.35		50.83	14.55	1.25
Differentials	0.16		-3.17	7.26	-0.29
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: WAS	Worth A Bet?

---

​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
CAR	80.82	4.34	57.00	23.81	2.35
3.0
TB	68.34		54.50	18.59	0.92
Differentials	12.48		2.50	5.21	1.44
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CAR	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SD	82.30	0.80	50.33	15.37	3.34
7.5
CLE	76.50		46.83	19.70	2.30
Differentials	5.81		3.50	-4.33	1.04
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CLE	Worth A Bet?

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
DEN	88.34	2.04	55.50	10.26	2.30
6.5
MIN	74.10		44.17	11.10	1.42
Differentials	14.24		11.33	-0.85	0.88
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DEN	Worth A Bet?

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
GB	88.46	1.46	55.00	23.43	3.05
8.5
SF	76.05		41.67	19.63	1.08
Differentials	12.41		13.33	3.80	1.97
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: GB	Worth A Bet?

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ARZ	100.58	2.60	60.50	22.24	1.74
7.0
STL	82.83		53.00	19.13	0.50
Differentials	17.75		7.50	3.11	1.23
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ARZ	Worth A Bet?

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NO	78.43	-19.00	63.00	10.10	2.19
4.5
DAL	93.21		60.00	28.55	3.60
Differentials	-14.77		3.00	-18.45	-1.41
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DAL	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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​

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SEA	83.65	0.74	52.33	21.36	1.39
10.0
DET	76.23		51.67	13.45	1.68
Differentials	7.42		0.67	7.91	-0.29
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DET	Worth A Bet?

 

[Daheavy1]

Why is Buffalo not a play?

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Why is Buffalo not a play?

We only play favorites where the Spread Value is 3.0 or more (This value may change as we monitor how things go, but for now 3 is the number). So Denver and Buffalo are close to plays but just miss.

Thanks for the interest I welcome all questions!

 

[NBAComputerMan]

*******************
Week 4 Plays Are Thus:
*******************

DAL+4.5

JAX+9.5

CAR-3

NYJ-1.5

OAK-3

Situationally, Oakland traveling west to east for another 1:00 hurts, Jets in England (who knows the effect), Dallas without key starters, so I would use some caution!

Best of luck to all!

 

[NBAComputerMan]

*******************
Week 4 Plays Are Thus:
*******************

DAL+4.5 ???

JAX+9.5 :toast:

CAR-3 :toast:

NYJ-1.5 :toast:

OAK-3

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Monday Night: Detroit @ SEATTLE

Based on the Play By Play numbers, the line looks to be right at 10, so not worth a play. The lean would be to the Lions.

Best of luck.

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Week 5 Play By Play Analysis....

Hi guys,

***********
Week 4 Recap:
***********
(3-2) – Top Plays
(9-5-1) overall

We had some nice easy winners on the Jets,Carolina and Jacksonville, A close loss on the Raiders, and of course losing a heartbreaker on the Cowboys in OT, one of the worst beats I have ever had.

Doinking the chipshot field goal, then giving up the TD in over time.

Losing our best defensive player for the second half as well as losing Dunbar and our fastest wide receiver didn’t help either…. Ok, enough bitching, happens to us all.




On to week 5…..

We have the following underdogs, that according to my play by play statistics are rated better from a line of scrimmage perspective than the favorite, so they stand a good chance of competing well in the game:

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
Seattle +3 over CINCY
Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA
San Francisco +7 over NY GIANTS

In addition to this analysis, the sides that look promising from looking at which teams are performing the best in areas that most determine winning/losing:

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Chicago +9.5 over KANSAS CITY
Seattle +3 over CINCY
Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA
Arizona -2.5 over DETROIT
Indianapolis +5 over HOUSTON

Arizona -2.5 looks to be the sucker play off the week. This line is begging you to take Arizona, and based on my numbers there is no reason for this line to be so low unless Vegas is setting a trap.
I have Arizona as having the most overall dominate line (offensive and defensive combined) and Detroit’s line(s) simply do not match up at all here. I smell a trap!...

And New This Week: QBR System (Quarterback Rating)

How It Works:
I have created software that analyzes each passing play in a game, I then create my own QBR rating for both offense and defense. I take the offensive QBR and subtract the defensive QBR to get a NET QBR Rating for each team.
We then can compare who we think will have the better QB performance in the game. Below are the UNDERDOGS that the system sees as potentially having the better overall QB day.

****************
Week 5 QBR Plays:
****************
New Orleans + 4.5 over PHILADELPHIA
TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
Chicago +9 over KANSAS CITY
Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA


From all the above analysis our TOP PLAYS this week are:
1. New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
2. Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
3. Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA
4. Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
5. Chicago +9.5 over KANSAS CITY


The highlighted in green are the strongest plays based on the fact that all three of our areas of analysis (see above) agree this is the right side.

Best of luck to all!

 

[indiana]

NBA/C-man...........thank you for the info and efforts here..........good luck with all your action...........indy

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Thanks, my pleasure Indy.... It is a labor of love, I just hope all the work pays off for all of us.

 

[dkuritz]

Do your spread values take into consideration home vs. away which is usually 2.5-3.5 points depending on the home field advantage?

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Do your spread values take into consideration home vs. away which is usually 2.5-3.5 points depending on the home field advantage?

Yes, the Spread Value has the home field advantage as part of the evaluation.

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Week 5 Play By Play Analysis.... You want stats/analysis?..... My stats are all autogenerated from software I have written.

This analysis is from evaluating the results of each NFL game on a play by play level. I download every play into a database then I run a computer program that analyzes what happened on the play. I create ratings for both offense and defense for the following:


Running
Passing
Overall (Running and Passing combined)

Big Plays
Red Zone
I then adjust all the statistics based on the quality of the opponent.
What you see below are the fruits of my labor. I hope that by looking deep within the game, we may be able to uncover some good analysis for wagering.
Overall - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective
Run - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for runs only
Pass - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for pass only
Big Play - This is how well a team effectively creates big plays (10+ running 20+ passing) on offense AND stops big plays on defense
RedZone - This is how EFFICIENT the team is in the red zone on offense AND how adept they are in the red zone on defense.

With only two weeks of data, we don't know much, in theory we should get better as the year goes on.

[h=3]Play By Play Analysis For Week 4[/h]

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
HOU	196	102	94	-12	-0.14
IND	195	98	97	-6	-0.60
Advantage	HOU - 1	HOU - 4	IND - 3	IND - 6	HOU - 0.46

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
BAL	198	98	100	4	-1.20
CLE	195	95	100	-6	-1.32
Advantage	BAL - 3	BAL - 3	CLE - 0	BAL - 10	BAL - 0.12

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
GB	208	98	110	-1	1.13
STL	196	99	97	4	0.05
Advantage	GB - 12	STL - 1	GB - 13	STL - 5	GB - 1.08

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
PHI	183	88	95	3	0.73
NO	209	102	107	-10	-0.78
Advantage	NO - 26	NO - 14	NO - 12	PHI - 13	PHI - 1.52

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
BUF	202	96	106	9	0.85
TEN	206	98	108	5	0.03
Advantage	TEN - 4	TEN - 2	TEN - 2	BUF - 4	BUF - 0.82

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
KC	200	107	93	-1	-0.76
CHI	188	95	93	0	-1.70
Advantage	KC - 12	KC - 12	CHI - 0	CHI - 1	KC - 0.94

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
CIN	202	102	100	11	-1.25
SEA	210	108	102	9	-0.35
Advantage	SEA - 8	SEA - 6	SEA - 2	CIN - 2	SEA - 0.90

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
TB	190	94	96	-4	-0.83
JAX	199	111	88	11	-0.18
Advantage	JAX - 9	JAX - 17	TB - 8	JAX - 15	JAX - 0.64

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
ATL	204	105	99	-3	-0.27
WAS	207	103	104	-8	-0.01
Advantage	WAS - 3	ATL - 2	WAS - 5	ATL - 5	WAS - 0.26

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
ARZ	212	103	109	11	2.54
DET	190	96	94	-7	0.96
Advantage	ARZ - 22	ARZ - 7	ARZ - 15	ARZ - 18	ARZ - 1.58

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
DEN	207	102	105	-1	1.14
OAK	204	104	100	-10	1.27
Advantage	DEN - 3	OAK - 2	DEN - 5	DEN - 9	OAK - 0.13

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NE	200	87	113	-7	0.21
DAL	208	102	106	5	0.51
Advantage	DAL - 8	DAL - 15	NE - 7	DAL - 12	DAL - 0.30

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NYG	197	101	96	3	-0.27
SF	200	107	93	-2	-1.51
Advantage	SF - 3	SF - 6	NYG - 3	NYG - 5	NYG - 1.23

---

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
SD	197	96	101	0	0.92
PIT	188	91	97	4	0.84
Advantage	SD - 9	SD - 5	SD - 4	PIT - 4	SD - 0.08

---

Quality Of Opponents:
ARZ

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.25	0.25	-9.75	1.06699385706	-2.75	0.5	-2.75	-4.10145355834

Quality Of Opponents:
ATL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.5	-6.25	-8.25	-3.5017700731	-2.25	4.5	-10.25	3.83339220024

Quality Of Opponents:
BAL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
2	-0.5	1.75	-1.24901747356	-0.5	1.5	-0.75	2.35255675866

Quality Of Opponents:
BUF

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.25	-0.25	3	-1.47323817624	-0.75	-3.25	-15	-1.84063641122

Quality Of Opponents:
CAR

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-3.25	0	0.5	-2.0071131942	0.5	2.25	-0.25	-1.65095082008

Quality Of Opponents:
CHI

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
4	5.5	9.75	3.1508403511	4	-1.25	9.5	-0.835004800442

Quality Of Opponents:
CIN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0	3.5	12.5	-1.20352338213	-1	-1	-8.5	-0.774933799346

Quality Of Opponents:
CLE

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.75	1.75	8.5	-0.0632648842977	3.75	-1.75	9	-2.04431402703

Quality Of Opponents:
DAL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
2.25	-5.75	1.25	-2.64243302985	-3.5	5	-10.5	1.05440160643

Quality Of Opponents:
DEN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-3	0	-6.25	-2.92063080228	-2.25	-1.25	-10	1.27021863019

Quality Of Opponents:
DET

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.75	1.5	1	-1.85474050798	3	0.25	16.75	3.65234202421

Quality Of Opponents:
GB

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-3.5	6.25	-2.25	2.93314992971	-2	-0.75	2.75	-1.99284315394

Quality Of Opponents:
HOU

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.75	0.5	3.75	1.78941304119	-3	2.25	-4.5	-2.54295599425

Quality Of Opponents:
IND

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.25	3	1.75	3.79829866273	4.5	-1.25	11.75	2.04155583576

Quality Of Opponents:
JAX

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.5	0.5	2.75	-0.478293495612	0.25	-4	-6.5	-2.47722863624

Quality Of Opponents:
KC

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.25	-0.25	0.75	-1.36922270694	3.75	0.5	5.5	0.74107309251

Quality Of Opponents:
MIA

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.75	1.75	-3.5	1.22585378447	3.5	1.75	13	0.972075569473

Quality Of Opponents:
MIN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-2	-0.25	-11	-4.56380562045	1	1.5	-0.25	1.77940347686

Quality Of Opponents:
NE

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-2	2.33333333333	1	3.12109553878	-0.666666666667	-0.666666666667	0.333333333333	5.71009574734

Quality Of Opponents:
NO

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.75	-0.25	5	3.85060541956	0.5	0.75	6.25	0.779505525658

Quality Of Opponents:
NYG

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
6	0.5	14.5	0.874175576818	-0.5	4	3.75	0.347999959045

Quality Of Opponents:
NYJ

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-4.75	-2.5	-15.75	-1.69960542338	-0.5	-2	-7.25	-0.427322144855

Quality Of Opponents:
OAK

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.5	1.5	5	1.25256173067	-2	-4.75	-6	1.03312495743

Quality Of Opponents:
PHI

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
5	-2.5	7.5	-1.20842346941	1.25	6	14.25	-1.33516774454

Quality Of Opponents:
PIT

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.5	0.5	1.25	-0.360982843185	0.25	-2.5	-9.5	-0.979966807318

Quality Of Opponents:
SD

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.75	-1.25	-6.5	-2.62955752945	-3	-2.25	-16.25	1.88374973673

Quality Of Opponents:
SEA

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.5	-1.75	-14.75	0.711199831433	-2	-2.25	-5.75	-2.40416315749

Quality Of Opponents:
SF

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.75	0.25	0.25	2.46130547436	2.75	-3.5	12.5	1.15401767965

Quality Of Opponents:
STL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
3	1.75	14.5	4.36508499364	2	1.5	22	0.0143020025685

Quality Of Opponents:
TB

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1	-0.75	8.5	-0.335097170508	2	1	7.25	-2.53963247981

Quality Of Opponents:
TEN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-4	-0.333333333333	-10.6666666667	-1.65390768937	1	-3.66666666667	-5.33333333333	-3.71955473708

Quality Of Opponents:
WAS

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-2.25	-5	-19.5	0.98084624281	-4	2	-14.25	1.54394872178

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
HOU	48.75	43.125	116.125	16.8414686307	9.56251136633	7.62060915549	1.95881957765
IND	50.125	41.25	114.625	19.3792074539	10.6529717966	8.79074824072	1.72822456455
Advantage UNDERDOG	1.375			2.53773882324	1.09046043023	1.17013908524
Totals			230.75	36.2206760846	20.2154831629	16.4113573962	3.68704414219

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
BAL	48.75	47.625	114.125	19.0821779101	9.9047574807	9.07005288804	2.19583186814
CLE	48.5	46.25	113.125	14.1588405459	7.48571225081	6.65558332441	2.13819935576
Advantage UNDERDOG
Totals			227.25	33.2410184559	17.3904697315	15.7256362124	4.3340312239

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
GB	56.125	43.125	112.875	20.8825052298	13.503993462	7.97552335239	2.02635711726
STL	49.375	43.625	110	23.3877123631	15.6014963736	7.63329533373	1.48669732408
Advantage UNDERDOG		0.5		2.50520713333	2.09750291152
Totals			222.875	44.2702175929	29.1054898356	15.6088186861	3.51305444134

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
PHI	48.875	36.875	102.25	20.6748997553	11.7968797602	9.25706197844	2.3783370527
NO	55.125	43.5	136.5	13.9008909838	5.50034478047	8.39005786175	1.6207043109
Advantage UNDERDOG	6.25	6.625	34.25
Totals			238.75	34.5757907391	17.2972245407	17.6471198402	3.9990413636

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
BUF	50.2083333333	49.6666666667	109	23.6228681465	11.9676028692	11.7314948203	2.10301903535
TEN	51.2916666667	50.25	122.958333333	21.5316669284	10.6207988645	11.0837670144	1.69311410158
Advantage UNDERDOG	1.08333333333	0.583333333333	13.9583333333
Totals			231.958333333	45.1545350748	22.5884017337	22.8152618347	3.79613313693

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
KC	52.875	49.875	115	23.5655625698	13.7796885557	9.90282736349	2.18961015245
CHI	53.125	43.875	121.5	24.3374252681	12.970315212	11.2499062117	1.71759933609
Advantage UNDERDOG	0.25		6.5	0.77186269835		1.34707884823
Totals			236.5	47.9029878379	26.7500037677	21.1527335752	3.90720948854

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
CIN	53.75	46.125	122.125	20.6455753809	6.51775030912	14.4300970594	1.84001676504
SEA	54.875	49	127.375	19.8100391602	11.4819110623	8.38737992219	2.28991408237
Advantage UNDERDOG	1.125	2.875	5.25		4.96416075319		0.449897317328
Totals			249.5	40.4556145411	17.9996613714	22.8174769816	4.1299308474

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
TB	51.5	41	111.625	14.7280437643	6.67357630205	8.26702658516	1.64038552112
JAX	47.375	49.375	99.125	22.053949389	12.4647661325	9.69827790849	1.96278155776
Advantage UNDERDOG		8.375		7.32590562465	5.79118983046	1.43125132333	0.322396036646
Totals			210.75	36.7819931533	19.1383424346	17.9653044936	3.60316707888

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
ATL	53.375	42.625	118.125	21.9712175532	11.9405322045	9.78342406593	1.79390899596
WAS	55.625	41.625	118.625	19.4790625404	12.1592780178	7.15850071002	1.9237099208
Advantage UNDERDOG	2.25		0.5		0.218745813245		0.12980092484
Totals			236.75	41.4502800936	24.0998102223	16.9419247759	3.71761891675

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
ARZ	58	45.375	141.375	24.4180827492	11.7399939762	12.8513326794	1.98948953067
DET	50.125	41.625	107.625	15.2617750768	8.06314820561	7.03504476473	1.19831846721
Advantage UNDERDOG
Totals			249	39.679857826	19.8031421818	19.8863774441	3.18780799788

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
DEN	51.125	40.375	111	17.6040538003	9.78897931388	7.85494691043	1.87178882197
OAK	48.375	41.75	99.375	13.1274598807	6.23979002915	6.77367016599	1.93767685174
Advantage UNDERDOG		1.375					0.0658880297679
Totals			210.375	30.731513681	16.028769343	14.6286170764	3.80946567371

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
NE	57.6666666667	42.7916666667	138.666666667	15.3112892313	8.7821137207	6.23445689126	1.93416514216
DAL	54.125	50.0416666667	125.75	21.4318968613	11.8446470823	9.85055537901	2.08379849899
Advantage UNDERDOG		7.25		6.12060763002	3.06253336156	3.61609848776	0.149633356826
Totals			264.416666667	36.7431860926	20.6267608029	16.0850122703	4.01796364114

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
NYG	51.375	42.5	113.75	17.7140695687	7.33723476772	10.6374986441	1.7233078806
SF	49.75	45.25	110.625	15.2222116714	9.67351501765	5.39332498207	1.10631061032
Advantage UNDERDOG		2.75			2.33628024992
Totals			224.375	32.93628124	17.0107497854	16.0308236262	2.82961849092

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
SD	53.875	46	110.125	17.4086093655	11.0602065689	6.13246507387	2.87672762604
PIT	51.875	43.75	115.375	19.565663825	11.5526753732	7.91378487049	2.83703250442
Advantage UNDERDOG			5.25	2.15705445955	0.492468804267	1.78131979662
Totals			225.5	36.9742731905	22.6128819421	14.0462499444	5.71376013045

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
HOU	70.408714	-4.83910369873	-1	4.83910369873	5.83910369873
IND	75.24782	4.83910369873	+1.0	4.83910369873
Spread Favors: IND with a rating of: 5.84

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
BAL	83.691666	6.43326568604	-6.5	-0.989733182467	0.940810004106
CLE	77.2584	-6.43326568604	+6.5	-0.989733182467
Spread Favors: CLE with a rating of: 0.94

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
GB	91.13914	9.14306640625	-9	-1.01589626736	0.971035510699
STL	81.99607	-9.14306640625	+9.0	-1.01589626736
Spread Favors: GB with a rating of: 0.97

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
PHI	80.50065	-0.605918884277	-4.5	0.134648640951	5.10591888428
NO	81.10657	0.605918884277	+4.5	0.134648640951
Spread Favors: NO with a rating of: 5.11

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
BUF	92.79728	1.55258178711	-2.5	-0.621032714844	0.631923941612
TEN	91.2447	-1.55258178711	+2.5	-0.621032714844
Spread Favors: TEN with a rating of: 0.63

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
KC	74.45389	-0.392211914062	-9	0.0435791015625	9.39221191406
CHI	74.8461	0.392211914062	+9.0	0.0435791015625
Spread Favors: CHI with a rating of: 9.39

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
CIN	86.93663	-1.74214935303	-3	0.580716451009	4.74214935303
SEA	88.67878	1.74214935303	+3.0	0.580716451009
Spread Favors: SEA with a rating of: 4.74

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
TB	76.192116	-2.67088317871	-3	0.890294392904	5.67088317871
JAX	78.863	2.67088317871	+3.0	0.890294392904
Spread Favors: JAX with a rating of: 5.67

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
ATL	79.57087	-0.959014892578	-7.5	0.127868652344	8.45901489258
WAS	80.529884	0.959014892578	+7.5	0.127868652344
Spread Favors: WAS with a rating of: 8.46

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
ARZ	98.64984	25.4849090576	-2.5	-10.193963623	9.87293685913
DET	73.16493	-25.4849090576	+2.5	-10.193963623
Spread Favors: ARZ with a rating of: 9.87

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
DEN	86.53522	9.7501373291	-4.5	-2.16669718424	2.08182754119
OAK	76.78508	-9.7501373291	+4.5	-2.16669718424
Spread Favors: DEN with a rating of: 2.08

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
NE	88.68977	-1.8356628418	-8.5	0.215960334329	10.3356628418
DAL	90.52544	1.8356628418	+8.5	0.215960334329
Spread Favors: DAL with a rating of: 10.34

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
NYG	80.83283	6.8892288208	-7	-0.984175545829	0.956284926278
SF	73.9436	-6.8892288208	+7.0	-0.984175545829
Spread Favors: SF with a rating of: 0.96

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
SD	83.838196	0.770927429199	-3	-0.256975809733	0.319796747565
PIT	83.06727	-0.770927429199	+3.0	-0.256975809733
Spread Favors: PIT with a rating of: 0.32

The Numbers Explained:
Power Rating	How well a team is at the most crucial aspects of winning an NFL game (As determined by my own big data research)
Spread Value	Reflects how much value we see in backing the FAVORITE versus the vegas line, after comparing our Power Rating differential. Currently I have set a 3.0 or more threshold for betting the Favorite, and any negative value we back the underdog.
Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays in the passing game will be successful (based on down and distance)
Predicted Big Play Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays will go for runs > 10 and passes > 19
Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play	Predicts how many points per red zone play the team will obtain.
Differentials	How much better the favorite is than the underdog (negative values favor the underdog)

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
HOU	70.41	-5.60	48.75	16.84	1.96
1.0
IND	75.25		50.13	19.38	1.73
Differentials	-4.84		-1.38	-2.54	0.23
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: IND	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

---

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BAL	83.69	0.94	48.75	19.08	2.20
6.5
CLE	77.26		48.50	14.16	2.14
Differentials	6.43		0.25	4.92	0.06
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CLE	Worth A Bet?

---

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
GB	91.14	0.97	56.13	20.88	2.03
9.0
STL	82.00		49.38	23.39	1.49
Differentials	9.14		6.75	-2.51	0.54
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: GB	Worth A Bet?

---

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
PHI	80.50	-5.02	48.88	20.67	2.38
4.5
NO	81.11		55.13	13.90	1.62
Differentials	-0.61		-6.25	6.77	0.76
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: NO	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BUF	92.80	0.63	50.21	23.62	2.10
2.5
TEN	91.24		51.29	21.53	1.69
Differentials	1.55		-1.08	2.09	0.41
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: TEN	Worth A Bet?

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
KC	74.45	0.04	52.88	23.57	2.19
9.0
CHI	74.85		53.13	24.34	1.72
Differentials	-0.39		-0.25	-0.77	0.47
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CHI	Worth A Bet?

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
CIN	86.94	-4.34	53.75	20.65	1.84
3.0
SEA	88.68		54.88	19.81	2.29
Differentials	-1.74		-1.13	0.84	-0.45
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: SEA	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
TB	76.19	-6.08	51.50	14.73	1.64
3.0
JAX	78.86		47.38	22.05	1.96
Differentials	-2.67		4.13	-7.33	-0.32
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: JAX	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ATL	79.57	-8.86	53.38	21.97	1.79
7.5
WAS	80.53		55.63	19.48	1.92
Differentials	-0.96		-2.25	2.49	-0.13
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: WAS	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ARZ	98.65	9.87	58.00	24.42	1.99
2.5
DET	73.16		50.13	15.26	1.20
Differentials	25.48		7.88	9.16	0.79
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ARZ	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
DEN	86.54	2.08	51.13	17.60	1.87
4.5
OAK	76.79		48.38	13.13	1.94
Differentials	9.75		2.75	4.48	-0.07
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DEN	Worth A Bet?

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NE	88.69	-10.26	57.67	15.31	1.93
8.5
DAL	90.53		54.13	21.43	2.08
Differentials	-1.84		3.54	-6.12	-0.15
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DAL	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NYG	80.83	0.96	51.38	17.71	1.72
7.0
SF	73.94		49.75	15.22	1.11
Differentials	6.89		1.63	2.49	0.62
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: SF	Worth A Bet?

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Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SD	83.84	0.32	53.88	17.41	2.88
3.0
PIT	83.07		51.88	19.57	2.84
Differentials	0.77		2.00	-2.16	0.04
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: PIT	Worth A Bet?

 

[NBAComputerMan]

Sorry had a miss print...

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
KC	74.45	9.39	52.88	23.57	2.19
9.0
CHI	74.85		53.13	24.34	1.72
Differentials	-0.39		-0.25	-0.77	0.47
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CHI	Worth A Bet?	YES!