Picks for 12/17/08 11-15-1 -12.1 units ytd

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We will continue to chip away at the units. Kinda like Tennessee did tonight. Just keep pressing and pushing forward and suddenly your walking off the floor with a 12 point win. Love one game for Wednesday night. Also have a couple of leans and will possibly post as plays tomorrow. As always plays are from 1-5 units.

Oregon +???? 5 units My suggestion is to wait until much closer to gametime as I think this line will only climb. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened it at 3 but I think it goes up. I may be wrong and if it starts to drop go ahead and take it immediately. Oregon should win straight up but you might as well take whatever points the Book is willing to give you just in case St. Mary's wins on a fluke last second shot or whatever.

I am going to start my explanation out with a little response to Homedawg as I know he is considering St. Mary's. But this all applies to why I love the Ducks.

Homedawg you guessed it. I really like the Ducks getting the points on their home court. Take the game from the other night out of your head and think about the write up that you had about that game beforehand. Catron and Dunigan were just getting back from injuries. I think they both play better on Wednesday. Also Sim shot 1-9. He has been shooting 44% on 3's this year. He graduated from a Portland HS and clearly was trying to impress the home crowd. You also had to think San Diego was going to rally at some point. They weren't going to lose every game the rest of the year. Caught the Ducks at the right time. Oregon is a young team and they are going to be up and down all year. But generally young guys play much better on their home floor and this one will be on their true home floor.

St. Mary's has the best player(Mills) on the court which is concerning but after that I think that it evens out. Dunigan matches up with Samhan, Catron with Simpson and on down the line. Don't forget that Porter can still shoot Oregon past anybody. Nice stat: he is shooting 50% on 3's at home. Also there is a little revenge aspect here as they went up to St. Mary's last year and got whipped pretty handily.

Oregon has played a tough schedule so far and that only makes the young guys better. Oregon has already played Kansas State, UNC, Bama, Texas, Utah, and San Diego. Only one of those was on their homecourt and they won that one over KState.

St. Mary's has played Kent State, San Diego State, Providence and lost to UTEP. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this at 3 and I would guess that by gametime tomorrow night that it will be at least 5 maybe more. Wait for it and I think you will get great value on Oregon.

Good luck to all. Any questions don't hesitate to ask.
 

Dynasty
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very good reasoning, and to be honest I actually talked myself totally off this game. i decided i wouldn't back St Mary's because whenever i take a road favorite i get burnt. i feel it's just showing me I shouldn't do it. I wasn't as worried about Mills, as I was Samhan and his development. That's not even mentioning maybe their best offensive player, Simpson. You do have good reasoning with all of Oregon's key players negating them. I do like St Mary's complimentary players a bit more, and would favor St Mary's big 3 over Oregon's, if you wanna call it that, but home court could negate all that. I will take a harder look if this line can climb to at least +4...these are the games you win though. the games where everyone notices the better team is a 3 point favorite on the road, then they get burnt. your def on the right side imo

GL, hopefully i will join
 

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HD,

Can understand why you would stay away from this one. I just have a great feeling about this one. So far the line is actually opening at most books at 2.5. Will wait a while to see if it climbs back up. If it doesn't I would be ok with this one at pick em but like I said earlier I would love to have a couple of points just in case. I will keep a close eye on it.
 

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First glance over the card this was the game I liked the most. Might have talked myself out of it at this point, but going to give it a better look when I get a chance. Good luck with it.
 

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Ok I am going to lock in this play. It has been sitting at 2.5 all day and I don't see it moving much more at this point. Oregon +2.5 5 units. Good Luck to all.
 

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