Picking the biggest favorite on the board and chasing

[goblue12]

How successful is it simply picking the biggest favorite on the board each day and chasing when it loses?

Has the biggest favorite ever lost 6 times in a row? I don't really know of any tracking websites that have this, but I do know that some people follow this guideline, but bet on the Run Line of games.

I'm sure that someone has tried this before. Any links to historical data would be greatly appreciated.

 

[CHOPTALK]

the biggest fav on the rl certainly has probably lost more then 6 in a row.]\\plenty of times

 

[Wellwood]

I'm sure there's other sites that might have the info, but here's one site with past odds. However, you'd have to check the info yourself manually by checking each day of odds.

http://www.scoresandodds.com/

 

[goblue12]

Yeah, I saw an old thread in this forum where the guy lost 3 grand one year doing the RL, I don't think there is a profit to be made there.

What about ML? I back tracked it at -200 or above the last 5 years and it hits 68%. This year, it's at least 19-6.

Unfortunately, the website where I got the data from only shows the last 25 games played.

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?text=line<-200&submit=query

 

[CHOPTALK]

BTW you will get killed doing this

the line breaks bigtime on those high favs.


When you lose a -270 you have to win 3 straight at to win $100 just to get you money back, and if you chase the whole loss and lose 5 in a row you wont be able to get a bet down big enough to cover the loss.

-250 once is -$250
To chase that loss you will have to wager $625 just to get you money back, then when that loses now you are down $875 so to get that back now you are wagering around $2200 without a calculator but thats pretty close. Thats just 3 loses.

Then when you lose that now you are down over 4K and have to bet almost 10k to get your original bet back and that is just after 4 loses.
The math is not perfect but close.

Then if you lose that bet there is not a book on the plannet that will take a bet the size that you need to chase all those losses.

And be honest, how smart is it to spent almost 100K if you do lose 6 in a row just to win $100 bucks>

 

[CHOPTALK]

excuse the grammer im on an iphone

 

[goblue12]

I see. I don't ever bet anything close to $100 per unit (unless it's the NFL Draft where I know more then the books on their horrific prop bets) but even with my small unit plays it's still going to screw me over eventually. The risk vs. reward is iffy, so I guess I will steer clear.

Thanks for the insight, I probably would have thrown some cash at this like everything else and lost it all after a while.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I see. I don't ever bet anything close to $100 per unit (unless it's the NFL Draft where I know more then the books on their horrific prop bets) but even with my small unit plays it's still going to screw me over eventually. The risk vs. reward is iffy, so I guess I will steer clear.

Thanks for the insight, I probably would have thrown some cash at this like everything else and lost it all after a while.

What do you think about M Jenkins? Is he going to be a stud?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Record this year on playing the biggest favorite on the board is 37-19 (+1.35 units)

Record for the 6 game chase is 37-0 (+37 units)

Average lay: -203.39

Longest chase: 5 games (90.97 units)

Second longest chase: 2 games

Data:

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L </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Guthrie - R </td> <td align="left">-5</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-185</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/7/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Giants </td> <td align="left">Lincecum - R </td> <td align="left">Brewers </td> <td align="left">Suppan - R </td> <td align="left">4</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-165</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/8/2009</td> <td align="left">away </td> <td align="left">Dodgers </td> <td align="left">Billingsley - R </td> <td align="left">Padres </td> <td align="left">Silva - R </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-170</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/9/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Cardinals </td> <td align="left">Carpenter - R </td> <td align="left">Pirates </td> <td align="left">Ohlendorf - R </td> <td align="left">1</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-200</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/10/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Braves </td> <td align="left">Lowe - R </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Martis - R </td> <td align="left">1</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-205</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/11/2009</td> <td align="left">away </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Sabathia - L </td> <td align="left">Royals </td> <td align="left">Ramirez - L </td> <td align="left">5</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-210</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/12/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Braves </td> <td align="left">Jurrjens - R </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Olsen - L </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-175</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/13/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Pelfrey - R </td> <td align="left">Padres </td> <td align="left">Silva - R </td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-200</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/14/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Braves </td> <td align="left">Vazquez - R </td> <td align="left">Marlins </td> <td align="left">Volstad - R </td> <td align="left">-4</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-150</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/15/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Cubs </td> <td align="left">Harden - R </td> <td align="left">Rockies </td> <td align="left">Marquis - R </td> <td align="left">-3</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">P </td> <td align="left">-210</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/16/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Sabathia - L </td> <td align="left">Indians </td> <td align="left">Lee - L </td> <td align="left">-8</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-210</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/17/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Chamberlain - R </td> <td align="left">Indians </td> <td align="left">Reyes - R </td> <td align="left">1</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-215</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/18/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Red Sox </td> <td align="left">Beckett - R </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Eaton - R </td> <td align="left">2</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-270</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/19/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Burnett - R </td> <td align="left">Indians </td> <td align="left">Pavano - R </td> <td align="left">4</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-240</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/20/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Red Sox </td> <td align="left">Masterson - R </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Hendrickson - L </td> <td align="left">11</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-215</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/21/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Cubs </td> <td align="left">Harden - R </td> <td align="left">Reds </td> <td align="left">Owings - R </td> <td align="left">5</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-220</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/22/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Sabathia - L </td> <td align="left">Athletics </td> <td align="left">Anderson - L </td> <td align="left">2</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-250</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/23/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Phillies </td> <td align="left">Hamels - L </td> <td align="left">Brewers </td> <td align="left">Bush - R </td> <td align="left">-5</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-165</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/24/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Santana - L </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Olsen - L </td> <td align="left">1</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-290</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/25/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Pelfrey - R </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Cabrera - R </td> <td align="left">6</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">P </td> <td align="left">-180</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/26/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Padres </td> <td align="left">Peavy - R </td> <td align="left">Pirates </td> <td align="left">Ohlendorf - R </td> <td align="left">-5</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-200</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/27/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Brewers </td> <td align="left">Looper - R </td> <td align="left">Pirates </td> <td align="left">Karstens - R </td> <td align="left">5</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-175</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/28/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Phillies </td> <td align="left">Hamels - L </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Lannan - L </td> <td align="left">6</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-180</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/29/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Brewers </td> <td align="left">Gallardo - R </td> <td align="left">Pirates </td> <td align="left">Snell - R </td> <td align="left">1</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-200</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">4/30/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Burnett - R </td> <td align="left">Angels </td> <td align="left">Ortega - R </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-230</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/1/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Cubs </td> <td align="left">Harden - R </td> <td align="left">Marlins </td> <td align="left">Taylor - L </td> <td align="left">2</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-280</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/2/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Sabathia - L </td> <td align="left">Angels </td> <td align="left">Palmer - R </td> <td align="left">-4</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-270</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/3/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Dodgers </td> <td align="left">Billingsley - R </td> <td align="left">Padres </td> <td align="left">Gaudin - R </td> <td align="left">4</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-220</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/4/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Rays </td> <td align="left">Kazmir - L </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Eaton - R </td> <td align="left">-4</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-220</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/5/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Rays </td> <td align="left">Garza - R </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Uehara - R </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">P </td> <td align="left">-190</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/6/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Santana - L </td> <td align="left">Phillies </td> <td align="left">Park - R </td> <td align="left">1</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-240</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/7/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Cardinals </td> <td align="left">Wellemeyer - R </td> <td align="left">Pirates </td> <td align="left">Ohlendorf - R </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-190</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/8/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Dodgers </td> <td align="left">Billingsley - R </td> <td align="left">Giants </td> <td align="left">Zito - L </td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-200</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/9/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Maine - R </td> <td align="left">Pirates </td> <td align="left">Maholm - L </td> <td align="left">9</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-175</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/10/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Diamondbacks </td> <td align="left">Scherzer - R </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Olsen - L </td> <td align="left">2</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-170</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/11/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Santana - L </td> <td align="left">Braves </td> <td align="left">Lowe - R </td> <td align="left">-5</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-190</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/12/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Brewers </td> <td align="left">Parra - L </td> <td align="left">Marlins </td> <td align="left">Koronka - L </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-170</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/13/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Indians </td> <td align="left">Lee - L </td> <td align="left">White Sox </td> <td align="left">Buehrle - L </td> <td align="left">4</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-160</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/14/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Cubs </td> <td align="left">Dempster - L </td> <td align="left">Padres </td> <td align="left">Gaudin - R </td> <td align="left">8</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-160</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/15/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Royals </td> <td align="left">Greinke - R </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Eaton - R </td> <td align="left">7</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-215</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/16/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Chamberlain - R </td> <td align="left">Twins </td> <td align="left">Blackburn - R </td> <td align="left">2</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">P </td> <td align="left">-185</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/17/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Blue Jays </td> <td align="left">Halladay - R </td> <td align="left">White Sox </td> <td align="left">Floyd - R </td> <td align="left">6</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-250</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/18/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Braves </td> <td align="left">Lowe - R </td> <td align="left">Rockies </td> <td align="left">Marquis - R </td> <td align="left">-4</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-175</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/19/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Sabathia - L </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Bergesen - R </td> <td align="left">8</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-280</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/20/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Rays </td> <td align="left">Kazmir - L </td> <td align="left">Athletics </td> <td align="left">Anderson - L </td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-175</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/21/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Chamberlain - R </td> <td align="left">Orioles </td> <td align="left">Eaton - R </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-300</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/22/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Yankees </td> <td align="left">Burnett - R </td> <td align="left">Phillies </td> <td align="left">Myers - R </td> <td align="left">-4</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-155</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/23/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Red Sox </td> <td align="left">Beckett - R </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Pelfrey - R </td> <td align="left">-1</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-190</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/24/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Red Sox </td> <td align="left">Wakefield - R </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Redding - R </td> <td align="left">7</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-200</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/25/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Maine - R </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Lannan - L </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-170</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/26/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Angels </td> <td align="left">Saunders - L </td> <td align="left">White Sox </td> <td align="left">Colon - R </td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-185</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/27/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Mets </td> <td align="left">Santana - L </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Zimmermann - R </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-220</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/26/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Angels </td> <td align="left">Saunders - L </td> <td align="left">White Sox </td> <td align="left">Colon - R </td> <td align="left">-2</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-185</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/29/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Angels </td> <td align="left">Lackey - R </td> <td align="left">Mariners </td> <td align="left">Vargas - L </td> <td align="left">-3</td> <td align="left">L </td> <td align="left">U </td> <td align="left">-170</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5/30/2009</td> <td align="left">home </td> <td align="left">Phillies </td> <td align="left">Hamels - L </td> <td align="left">Nationals </td> <td align="left">Martis - R </td> <td align="left">3</td> <td align="left">W </td> <td align="left">O </td> <td align="left">-260</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Second longest chase: 2 games

3 games, not 2 games.