Phil Steele's summer college football betting guide

[HacheMan]

Phil Steele's summer college football betting guide
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER

While we're still a ways from college football season, it's never too early to start looking at where the betting value lies for the upcoming season.

Phil Steele covers all angles in this four-part betting guide, giving you the best summer bets to make.



Against-the-spread picks for five marquee college football matchups

With the college football season drawing closer by the day, we're already busy thinking about the biggest matchups that epitomize what makes the sport an important part of our fall schedules.

The fine folks over at South Point in Las Vegas have been kind enough to post lines on 66 marquee games from Sept. 9 through the end of the year to add to our anticipation of the season ahead.

I've examined these numbers and will give you my five best selections. These selections factor in not only who I think will win the game, but also some games that should provide nice value by the time the game rolls around.


Wyoming Cowboys vs. Oregon Ducks (-4)
Saturday, Sept. 16


In the only meeting between these two teams in 2014, Oregon won 48-14. The Ducks figure to be an under-the-radar team this season and are 11-5 in their first game of the season away from Autzen Stadium since 2001.

Wyoming has faced four Power 5 teams under coach Craig Bohl and lost those games by 32 points per game. Wyoming does have quarterback Josh Allen, who is definitely on the radar for the NFL draft, and the Cowboys benefited from bowl practices while Oregon did not.

The Ducks have huge edges on offense (No. 3 versus No. 87) and special teams (No. 19 versus No. 119) and should get the road win more comfortably than expected.

The pick: Oregon -4


Colorado Buffaloes vs. UCLA Bruins (-4.5)
Saturday, Sept. 30

UCLA is 9-3 in this series but last season had its five-game win streak snapped. Without Josh Rosen at quarterback, the Bruins entered the fourth quarter tied at 10, but the Buffaloes added a field goal and punt-return touchdown to put the game away. With Rosen in 2015, UCLA led Colorado 21-6 at the half and won 35-31 in Pasadena.

Last year was a down season for the Bruins with a banged-up team versus a Colorado squad that was very experienced and on its way to the Pac-12 title game. Now, UCLA is more experience and will be at home against the Buffaloes with Rosen back and probably will be a touchdown or more favorite when the game arrives.

The pick: UCLA -4.5


Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)
Saturday, Oct. 21

Florida State is playing for revenge after getting destroyed on the road in an embarrassing performance in 2016 -- the final score was 63-20 and it could have been worse. Last time these teams met in Tallahassee, Florida State rolled to a 41-21 win. Florida State lost only three lettermen from its defense and gets back safety Derwin James, who is one of the nation's best but missed almost all of 2016.

Louisville averaged 49.6 points in its first 10 games last season but only 19 over its last three games. Other programs might have found the key to stopping Lamar Jackson. Revenge games are often overrated but not this one: The Seminoles will get their payback.

The pick: Florida State -6.5


Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-8.5)
Saturday, Oct. 28

Last season, Ohio State was in control of this game but a blocked field-goal attempt returned for a touchdown was the deciding score that cost the Buckeyes a shot at the Big Ten title. The higher-ranked team is 23-3 in the series, and the last time the game was played in Columbus, Ohio State won 38-10.

The Buckeyes blew a 21-7 lead last season and should not have let up. They get this season's game at home. Ohio State is 10-0 since 2010 when seeking revenge from a previous season's loss, with the average win by 13 points. I expect the Buckeyes to be a double-digit favorite by game time.

The pick: Ohio State -8.5


Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 28

Florida has won the past three in the series by 18.6 points per game and has a solid team returning this season. The Gators won the SEC East each of the past two seasons despite losing their quarterback to injury in the first half of each season and having a below-average offense during the second half. This season, they have a much-improved offense with three capable quarterbacks surrounded by talent, their usual solid defense and my No. 3-rated special-teams unit.

I feel the Gators will come into this game at 7-0. Georgia has road trips to Notre Dame and Tennessee and might have a loss or two. That will have the Gators rightfully favored in late October, so grab the points right now while they're available since I think Florida will win this matchup.

The pick: Florida +3

 

[HacheMan]

Best early CFB over/under bets

College football season win totals are a good way to gauge expectations for teams while also finding opportunities for betting value.

In 2015, I gave out eight season win totals and those selections went 5-2, with one "no bet." Last season, I had eight more selections and those selections went 5-2-1.

To get a head start on your research for the 2017 season, here are my top seven over/under plays for this summer.

Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of July 18 (unless noted).


Miami Hurricanes (over/under: 9)

I've correctly picked the Hurricanes each of the past two seasons, and they look to be underrated once again. If Brad Kaaya had returned at quarterback, they would be a top-10 team.

I like teams with an excellent defensive front seven, and the Hurricanes have that. Last season, they started three true freshmen at linebacker and now have one of the top linebacker units in the country. I rate their defensive line No. 4 in the nation.

When I factor in their overall talent and schedule, I have the Hurricanes favored in 11 of their 12 games. With that in mind, I will choose the over again and call for Miami to make its first-ever ACC title game.

The pick: over 9


Marshall Thundering Herd (O/U: 5)

At South Point

This may be my favorite play on the board. Marshall won 11 games per season from 2013 to 2015. Last year, the Herd took a shocking dip down to just three wins, and that's why we have this exceptional value at just five for a team that has now averaged nine wins per season over the past four years.

Marshall has 13 returning starters, a veteran quarterback and brings in some Power 5 transfers on defense who will make it one of Conference USA's best defensive units. Grab the value now as this number will climb during the summer months.

The pick: over 5


Vanderbilt Commodores (O/U: 5.5)

At South Point

Derek Mason's squad has shown improvement each season, going from three to four to six wins, and this number is set for continued improvement as the Commodores have 16 returning starters and the strongest team of his tenure.

One factor that is also stronger this season is the schedule, which goes from No. 38 to No. 15 in terms of difficulty this year. Vanderbilt takes on two of Conference USA's toughest teams in Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee and also draws a loaded Kansas State in the nonconference slate. While the Commodores beat both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee last season, they were outgained by 107 and 151 yards in those games.

The tough schedule means that even an improved Vandy squad may struggle to top six wins.

The pick: under 5.5


Florida Gators (O/U: 8)

At South Point

Florida is my No. 1 surprise team this year in my magazine as a non-top-10 team that I think will contend for a College Football Playoff spot. Florida has made the SEC title game each of the past two years despite losing its starting quarterback to injury in the first half of the season.

The Gators have their usual solid defense and my No. 3-rated special teams, and they will also have their best offense in over five seasons. They have only three true road games at Kentucky, Missouri and South Carolina. I think they will finish with 10 or 11 wins during the regular season, so this is a very solid play on the over.

The pick: over 8


Rice Owls (O/U: 3.5)

At South Point

David Bailiff is doing a great job at Rice, but is coming off of a rough 2016 season. Entering 2016, Rice averaged 6.3 wins per season, and the Owls' low total had been four. They opened 1-8 last season but did win two of their last three.

Last season, Colorado was a junior/senior-laden team and went from last in the Pac-12 to playing in the Pac-12 title game. This is a junior/senior-laden team, and the bar is set extremely low at 3.5 wins. I have the Owls favored in five games with one "toss-up."

The pick: over 3.5


Appalachian State Mountaineers (O/U: 9.5)

Appalachian State returns quarterback Taylor Lamb for what seems to be his ninth season, but he's actually in his fourth year as the starter. Over the past two-and-a-half seasons, coach Scott Satterfield has guided Appalachian State to a 27-5 record and may have his best team yet with 14 returning starters.

Last season, the Mountaineers' losses were to Tennessee, Miami and a road test at Troy, who finished 10-3. They do open up with Georgia, but their road games are against four teams that combined for eight wins versus FBS foes last season, and they face Idaho. They avoid Arkansas State and Troy in Sun Belt play, and I have them favored in 11 games.

The pick: over 9.5


UCF Knights (O/U: 7.5)

At South Point

Scott Frost did a great job taking over a UCF team that was 0-12 the season prior, guiding the Knights to a bowl with six wins. Upon closer inspection, though, those six wins came versus an FCS foe that had a losing record and five FBS teams that had losing records (18-42 combined).

This season, the Knights face six bowl teams from 2016 and have only four returning starters on defense. UCF goes from No. 10 on my Experience Chart to No. 53. While I expect a bowl and six wins, I don't see the Knights getting to eight wins in the regular season.

The pick: under 7.5

 

[HacheMan]

Top early 2017 college football national title bets

The Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds) have the best odds to win next year's College Football Playoff, but the betting field is wide-open.

Below are eight value picks that have favorable odds to win the 2017 title, all of which have odds worse than 10-1.

Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of July 17.


Penn State Nittany Lions (20-1)

No one expected Penn State to win the Big Ten title last season, but the Nittany Lions certainly looked more confident after their upset over Ohio State.


This season, Penn State goes from No. 81 on my "Experience Chart" to No. 12. The depth of the roster has improved each season under coach James Franklin, going from one deep at most positions to now having three or four solid options across the board

I have the Nittany Lions favored in 11 games, and that makes them a national title contender.


Wisconsin Badgers (20-1)

Last season, Wisconsin took on six top-10 teams and still went 10-3. That was with a team that had just 11 returning starters (No. 105 on my "Experience Chart") and lost some key defenders to injury during the season.

For 2017, the Badgers move up to No. 33 on my chart, and the schedule lightens with LSU, Penn State and Ohio State dropping off. Wisconsin may not face a top-10 team during the regular season. The Badgers go from facing my No. 20 schedule last season to No. 70 this season, and I have them favored in all 12 games.


Washington Huskies (20-1)

This number appears high for a team that made the playoff last season and is a favorite to get back to the conference title game. Washington was my No. 1 "Surprise Team" last season and the Huskies made the playoff.

This season, they have 14 returning starters and their No. 14 ranking on my "Experience Chart" is the highest of any Pac-12 team. They do have to travel to Stanford, and if they win the North Division will likely have to face USC, who beat them 26-13 in Seattle last year. Still, this team represents solid value and could be favored in all 12 games.


Clemson Tigers (25-1)

The defending national champions can certainly be considered a value pick at this price. Clemson's defense had just three and four returning starters the past two seasons, but now has seven, including my No. 1-rated defensive line in the country.

The Tigers do lose quarterback Deshaun Watson, their top running back and top wide receiver, but have plenty of talent returning. They get both Florida State and Auburn at home, and current game lines in Vegas have Clemson favored in every matchup.


Oklahoma State Cowboys (40-1)

With Oklahoma's Bob Stoops retiring, the Cowboys should be priced closer to 20-1. Last season, No. 10 Oklahoma State traveled to No. 9 Oklahoma for what amounted to the Big 12 title game and led 17-10 with 1:00 left in the first half, but lost. The Big 12 schedule makers like the teams' chances of playing in the Big 12 championship so much that they moved the annual Bedlam game earlier in the season so there wouldn't be an immediate rematch between the Sooners and Cowboys.

Oklahoma State gets Bedlam at home in 2017. With quarterback Mason Rudolph, running back Justice Hill and wide receiver James Washington, the Cowboys have one of the best skill player trios in the country. They don't figure to be more than a field goal underdog in any game, and that makes them a title contender.


Florida Gators (50-1)

The Gators are my No. 1 "Surprise Team" this year and are an outstanding value at 50-1. The past two seasons, Florida has lost its starting quarterback in the first half of the year and still made it to the SEC title game.

This season the Gators have three capable quarterbacks heading into the year in Feleipe Franks, Luke Del Rio and Malik Zaire, combined with the best skill personnel they've fielded in several years. They have their usual top-notch defense, and I rate their special teams No. 3 in the country.

They have just three true road games: versus Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri. They get an inexperienced Michigan in the opener, and Florida's other neutral-site game is versus Georgia, who has lost to the Gators three straight seasons.


Miami Hurricanes (50-1)

If Brad Kaaya had opted to return, the odds on Miami would be closer to 15-1. This is a loaded team. Last season, the Hurricanes had three true freshman linebackers who were all VHTs (very highly touted four- or five-star recruits) and now return after a successful debut. I rate the Miami defensive line No. 4 in the nation, and the Hurricanes have added speed at wide receiver.

Last season, Miami was 9-4, but outgained opponents by 80 yards per game and had a positive score differential of 15.8 points per game.

I have the Hurricanes favored in 11 games and getting to their first-ever ACC title game, so they would be one step away from the playoff and a great value at 50-1.

 

[HacheMan]

Best value bets to win the Heisman

In April I gave out my picks for the best value selections to win the Heisman Trophy. I also mentioned how the players with the best stats from last year are actually not only competing against the rest of the field, but must top their stats from last season as well.

It's now July and William Hill has updated odds to win the Heisman and added some new names. I still like all the players I previously mentioned, but here are a few others to look at for 2017. They all have long odds with lots of value.



Bryce Love, RB, Stanford Cardinal (100-1)

Love figures to be the focal point of the Stanford offense this year and did well in games he filled in for Christian McCaffrey. Love is a little more explosive than McCaffrey, and will be running behind an outstanding offensive line. He will be used more as a receiver and in the return game as well this year. Coach David Shaw calls him one of the most dynamic running backs in college football. Heisman contenders are helped by team success and Stanford hosts Washington this season, so they have a shot at getting to the Pac-12 title game. He'll be the star player of the offense and the 100-1 odds give you a lot of value.


Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State Nittany Lions (20-1)

Barkley is generally regarded as the top running back in college football this year. He is the complete package. He has the size that NFL scouts want at 5-foot-11 and 228 pounds, and he is powerful with a 600-pound squat. Unlike your normal big and powerful running back, he's also explosive and has legit 4.33 speed. Barkley works hard at everything and his goal is to be the best in the country at pass protection as well.

Barkley had 1,496 yards and 18 touchdowns running the ball last season, and 402 yards and four touchdowns receiving. He could top those numbers this year. I have Penn State favored in 11 of their 12 games, so he'll be playing on one of the top teams in the country. I would list Barkley in the top-five category, so he should be priced closer to 10-1.


Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M Aggies (100-1)

It's rare when a wide receiver wins the Heisman. To do so, he must contribute in the return game as well. You can check off that box emphatically for Kirk, as he's one of the most electrifying and dangerous return men in the country. As a true freshman he had just 14 punt returns, but had two touchdowns and averaged an amazing 24.4 yards per return, with another 385 yards on kick returns. Last year he had just six kick returns, but averaged 28.8 yards per return and he had just 13 punt returns, but had three more touchdowns and averaged 21.7 yards per return. He has averaged nearly 1,000 yards receiving in his two years despite uneven quarterback play.

The Aggies completed 66.9 percent of their passes in Kevin Sumlin's first three years as coach, but just 55.5 percent the last two years. I expect more efficient quarterback play in 2017, which will result in improved receiving numbers. With Sumlin on the hot seat and Kirk likely leaving for the NFL after the season, look for him to be even more involved in the return game and have a lot of Heisman-type moments. I'm surprised he's at 100-1.


Quinton Flowers, QB, South Florida Bulls (80-1)

Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy in 2016 thanks to some big marquee games early in the year. He finished with more than 5,000 yards of total offense and 51 total touchdowns. Flowers was Lamar Jackson lite last year. He had 4,342 yards of total offense and 42 total touchdowns. He won't have the marquee games that Jackson had last year, but could top those stats as the Bulls do lose their 1,000 yard running back Marlon Mack, so Flowers may take even more of the load. South Florida also faces my No. 110 toughest schedule and will be favored in all 12 games. They are my pick to represent the Group of 5 conferences in the New Year's Day bowl games. Flowers is under-the-radar right now at 80-1 and worth a look.

You'll notice on the two lists that I don't have Lamar Jackson, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. There are three reasons that I wouldn't bet on him winning the Heisman. The first is that the odds are just 8-1, so there's not a lot of value. The second is that there is some buyers' remorse from last year, as many who voted for him would have probably voted for Deshaun Watson after the bowls were complete. The third is what I mentioned in my original article, and that is a player has to basically top last year's stats. Louisville averaged just 19 points per game their last three games after averaging 49.6 the first 10. I don't think Jackson can top last year's stats and that is another reason Archie Griffin (1974-'75) is the only player to ever win the Heisman Trophy twice.

Other players I liked from April


Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State Seminoles (12-1)

Last year Francois got hit a lot but stayed in games, showing he's durable. Florida State will have some big marquee games (Alabama, Clemson, Louisville) for him to showcase his skills. Dalvin Cook got all the media attention on the Florida State offense in 2016, and that focus will be Francois' this year. If the Seminoles come away from their tough scheduled unscathed, Francois will have much to do with it and will put himself at the top of the Heisman list. He's my best value bet right now.


Sam Darnold, QB, USC Trojans (7-1)

Darnold deserves the favorite role, as USC was a different team once he was handed the starting job in Week 4. He is a dangerous runner, an accurate passer and is surrounded by talent at the skill positions. Darnold threw for a career-high 453 yards in leading the Trojans to a come-from-behind win in the Rose Bowl over a solid Penn State squad and has a ton of momentum going into this season. I think his odds should be closer to 5-1.


J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1)

Ohio State is enhancing its offense with the hiring of former Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson, and this should help Barrett become more consistent. The Buckeyes have a huge nonconference game against Oklahoma, and provided they win, Barrett will likely be in the driver's seat early on. Ohio State will be favored in every game and if Barrett reverts back to his 2014 form, he has an excellent shot at winning the Heisman.


Jake Browning, QB, Washington Huskies (12-1)

Browning has a great shot at improving on last year's statistics and might be worth a look. While he faltered a bit down the stretch in the big games, with another year of experience under his belt I don't think there will be a drop-off this season. Washington remains a contender in the Pac-12 as they avoid USC and will be favored in every game except at Stanford, thus making Browning a contender.


Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State Cowboys (15-1)

Oklahoma State is a prime contender in the Big 12 and the best news for Rudolph is that he's going to have arguably the best wide receiver in the nation to throw to in James Washington. After throwing for over 4,000 yards last year with a solid 28-4 touchdown to interception ratio, Rudolph could surpass those numbers in 2017.


Derrius Guice, RB, LSU Tigers (20-1)

Some have made the argument that Guice is better than Leonard Fournette. Guice will have the backfield to himself this season and will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his abilities. If LSU is in playoff consideration toward the end of the season, Guice will be a major reason why.

 

[HacheMan]

No opinion on this material fellas, just posting for others

 

[doglover]

Great info - Mr Steele is always so thorough in his analysis, that it's always an interesting read. Tread lightly though when it comes to the conclusions, since they don't always measure up to expectations. That said - I always like to hear what he has to say!

 

[doglover]

Great info - Mr Steele is always so thorough in his analysis, that it's always an interesting read. Tread lightly though when it comes to the conclusions, since they don't always measure up to expectations. That said - I always like to hear what he has to say!

 

[Conan]

P
Colorado Buffaloes vs. UCLA Bruins (-4.5)
Saturday, Sept. 30

UCLA is 9-3 in this series but last season had its five-game win streak snapped. Without Josh Rosen at quarterback, the Bruins entered the fourth quarter tied at 10, but the Buffaloes added a field goal and punt-return touchdown to put the game away. With Rosen in 2015, UCLA led Colorado 21-6 at the half and won 35-31 in Pasadena.

Last year was a down season for the Bruins with a banged-up team versus a Colorado squad that was very experienced and on its way to the Pac-12 title game. Now, UCLA is more experience and will be at home against the Buffaloes with Rosen back and probably will be a touchdown or more favorite when the game arrives.

The pick: UCLA -4.5

I gotta disagree with this pick.

Mora is 99% on his way out and UCLA is a perennial under-performer. Don't
get caught selling short Mike McIntyre. Nobody has mentioned how f*kkin
many red shirts he had last season. He is reloading, I'm telling you the truth
you won't hear anywhere else. His cupboard is far from bare. I think Steve
Montez may prove to be a better QB than Sefo Lifau in the long run, They
won't go down easy. You can count on that.

I still don't see UCLA with a rushing game. They placed next to last in Div-1A
in their running game last year. I think the whole team netted around 1000
yards rushing all last season.

Show me a lot more than what they've shown before I put my good money
on the Bruins.

 

[CoachCB]

Thanks Hache.

He's giving UF a lot of love. He says they'll come into the UF/UGA game at 7-0 (meaning they will have beaten: Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, and Texas A&M).....I'm not buying this!! Also has them covering vs. UGA at +3....and the Over on the 8 wins.

 

[CoachCB]

I gotta disagree with this pick.

Mora is 99% on his way out and UCLA is a perennial under-performer. Don't
get caught selling short Mike McIntyre. Nobody has mentioned how f*kkin
many red shirts he had last season. He is reloading, I'm telling you the truth
you won't hear anywhere else. His cupboard is far from bare. I think Steve
Montez may prove to be a better QB than Sefo Lifau in the long run, They
won't go down easy. You can count on that.

I still don't see UCLA with a rushing game. They placed next to last in Div-1A
in their running game last year. I think the whole team netted around 1000
yards rushing all last season.

Show me a lot more than what they've shown before I put my good money
on the Bruins.

Who's the new DC for Colorado? How's the returning D talent?

 

[Conan]

Who's the new DC for Colorado? How's the returning D talent?

DJ Eliot was Kentucky's DC for the last 3 or 4 years. 11 of his players earned all-SEC recognition including
a couple of defensive first round NFL picks. He's young and ambitious and brings with him a lot of new energy.
Runs essentially the same system as Leavitt who left Colorado for Oregon. To me he looks like a fresh new blood
supply that's dying to make it's mark. He's a brilliant young DC. I trust that McIntyre knows what he's doing.
That's not a very big stretch to assume.

As I pointed out elsewhere, the Buffs redshirted a bunch last season so they aren't that green behind the ears.

 

[Conan]

Actually Clover, the more I look at Colorado, possibly the more balanced and well rounded they appear to be.

They might be a good straight up dog winner vs the Bruins, but there's that revenge factor going for UCLA.
Still I'd call this one closer than it looks. Give me a TD (or close to it) at game time and I will likely fade UCLA
minus the points. Betting UCLA seems like a knee-jerk play. Remember the Colorado/Mich game at the start
of LY. Until Sefo got hurt the Buffs were definitely in it, They might show up to atone for the big road loss to
kick off 2017.

 

[cloverleaf]

Actually Clover, the more I look at Colorado, possibly the more balanced and well rounded they appear to be.

They might be a good straight up dog winner vs the Bruins, but there's that revenge factor going for UCLA.
Still I'd call this one closer than it looks. Give me a TD (or close to it) at game time and I will likely fade UCLA
minus the points. Betting UCLA seems like a knee-jerk play. Remember the Colorado/Mich game at the start
of LY. Until Sefo got hurt the Buffs were definitely in it, They might show up to atone for the big road loss to
kick off 2017.

Conan my friend, I probably respect your football knowledge/OPINION as equal to anyone here at theRX....especially
Pac-12 stuff. But my take on Colorado is a difficult year for a betting man. They covered 9 of 13 games last year. Public
happy bettors AIN'T going to allow that to happen this year....especially with just THREE returning starters on defense.

I have to think the Buffs going 6-6 against the spread this season would be a win for the Buff lovers.