[h=1]Phil Steele's best Week 7 college football bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
My selections are off to a slower start this year, at 34-18 straight up (65 percent) and 24-26-2 ATS. On the weekly podcast with Anita Marks and Doug Kezirian, my selections are 12-7-1 ATS on the year, so check that out this Friday.
Here are my selections for this week's big games.
Note: All times are Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]No. 21 Utah Utes (-9) at Oregon State Beavers[/h]4 p.m., Pac-12 Network
I picked Utah to win at home over Arizona last week. The Utes trailed 14-3 but rolled the rest of the game. They outscored the Wildcats 36-3 until allowing a late 63-yard touchdown pass in garbage time. Oregon State will feel it can win this game after beating Cal at home in Week 6 -- the same Bears team that dealt Utah its only loss of the year two weeks ago.
Quarterback Darell Garretson, who was banged up in Oregon State's loss to Colorado, had 105 rushing yards and Ryan Nall added 221. The Beavers piled up their best offensive showing under Gary Andersen with 559 total yards. But despite those facts, I still believe Utah has the edge in all three phases, including a large edge on defense with my No. 12-rated unit (OSU rates 84th). Oregon State trailed Boise State 31-7 at the half in their Week 4 matchup in Corvallis after being outgained 435 yards to 67. The Beavers benefited from Cal quarterback Davis Webb injuring his throwing hand on the second series as he threw for just 124 yards on 45 pass attempts.
Utah is a clear contender in the Pac-12 South, while Oregon State is only in the second year of Andersen's rebuild, and the price is cheap.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 28, Oregon State 13
[h=2]No. 20 West Virginia Mountaineers atTexas Tech Red Raiders (+1)[/h]Noon, Fox Sports 1
West Virginia is one of two Big 12 teams that remain unbeaten, and has risen to No. 20 in the AP poll. This is the Mountaineers' first game in an opponent's stadium this year, and it will be a tough test. They survived a close call in their Week 4 home matchup with BYU, and in their last game trailed Kansas State most of the way until pulling out a one-point home win.
Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes (shoulder injury) played last week, and the Red Raiders are outgaining FBS foes by 159 yards per game. West Virginia is only plus 42.6 yards per game against FBS opponents, despite not having to go on the road. Texas Tech has played to an average game grade of 91.9 (located on the team pages at philsteele.com) and has a solid home field edge, while West Virginia is playing to an average game grade of 88.8. My computer has the home team winning by a touchdown, and it is a slight 'dog.
ATS pick: Texas Tech (+)
Score: Texas Tech 45, West Virginia 38
[h=2]NC State Wolfpack at No. 3 Clemson Tigers(-17)[/h]Noon, ABC
I had no idea that NC State's game against Notre Dame would be played in a torrential downpour when I wrote this column last Tuesday. The Wolfpack got the game's only touchdown on a blocked punt. But this week, they will have a much tougher test.
Clemson got off to a slow start this year, but their offense is hitting their stride, much like they did around the same time last year. The Tigers topped 500 yards against both Louisville and Boston College's tough defenses while the defense is holding foes to 170 yards per game below their season average. Clemson has a big game against Florida State on deck, but have a bye next week. NC State is solid, but has beaten just one team that was in a bowl game the prior year in the past two seasons -- and that was last week in bad weather.
Clemson has taken on my No. 21-toughest schedule so far, and the Wolfpack my No. 94 toughest.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 38, NC State 14
[h=2]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 9Tennessee Volunteers (+13)[/h]3:30 p.m., CBS
Tennessee finishes its four-game gauntlet at home in front of its home crowd. The Vols have followed the same pattern nearly every game -- getting down big early, then playing a great second half to win. Last week, Tennessee lost in double overtime to Texas A&M, despite turning the ball over seven times and finishing minus four turnovers. The Vols had almost 700 yards of offense at College Station, and put up 498 yards against Florida two weeks ago, one of the best defenses in the country. They're a banged up team, but are getting nearly two touchdowns here.
Alabama's defense scored two more touchdowns last week, but I was alarmed by the 473 yards and 25 first downs they allowed to the Razorbacks. While they did win by 19, they also benefited from a 100-plus yard interception return, which was a 14-point swing. Earlier this year, they allowed 527 yards to Ole Miss and escaped with a five-point road win. Last year on the road, the Vols almost upset Alabama, with the Tide needing a touchdown with 2:24 left to escape with a five-point win.
I feel the Tide is the best team in the country and will win, but will take the nearly two touchdowns with a Tennessee team that is stronger than last year's squad and has Joshua Dobbs playing the best football of his career.
ATS pick: Tennessee (+)
Score: Alabama 37, Tennessee 30
[h=2]No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-10) at No. 8Wisconsin Badgers[/h]8:00 p.m., ABC
A few weeks back I took Michigan at home over Wisconsin and did not get the ATS win. That game does give me some line value here. Michigan did have 349-159 yards and 21-8 first-down edges, but only won by seven. Ohio State could have been looking ahead to this last week in its 21-point win at Indiana. It finished that game with the ball deep in Hoosier territory and could have won by 28.
Wisconsin's offense is being limited to 52 yards per game below what their opponents allow on average in their past three games. Their defense is solid, holding foes to 121 yards per game below their season average. Ohio State has been much more dominant, averaging 127 yards per game more than what their opponents allow, and the defense is holding teams to 216 yards per game below their average.
Ohio State won at Michigan last year by 29 and at Oklahoma this year by 21.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 10
[h=2]Kansas State Wildcats (+11) at No. 19Oklahoma Sooners[/h]Noon, ESPN
Oklahoma still has a great shot at winning the Big 12 and finishing the year at 10-2, as it'll be favored in the rest of its games. It has Samaje Perine and Joe Mixonat running back and Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Its offense is averaging 200 rushing and 300 passing yards per game. The Sooners are holding opponents to 81 yards per game below their average. They are worthy of being a big favorite here, but Bill Snyder is on the other sideline and that makes this an automatic play. There is no better coach in the country when he is installed as the 'dog. Already this year, Kansas State outgained Stanford on the road 335-272, led West Virginia almost start to finish before coming up three points short, but beat the Vegas number in each.
Kansas State is holding opponents to 94 yards per game below their season average and takes this one to the wire.
ATS pick: Kansas State (+)
Score: Oklahoma 30, Kansas State 26
[h=2]No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (-7.5) at No. 22Arkansas Razorbacks[/h]7:00 p.m., ESPN
Fourth and 25! Last year that was the predicament Arkansas faced in overtime against Ole Miss. The miracle play involved its tight end throwing the ball about 20 yards backwards, which was picked up by its running back, who broke some tackles and ran for a first down. If not for that play and subsequent loss, Ole Miss would have been in the SEC title game, and Alabama would not have even made the Playoff! There is a matter of revenge here.
While both teams are 4-2, I don't view them as equals. Ole Miss has a pair of close losses to Alabama and Florida State after having big leads in both games. Arkansas has two losses by an average of 20 points per game. Arkansas is allowing 315 rushing yards per game in SEC play, and a mind-boggling 8.9 yards per carry. The Razorback defense is allowing 6.6 yards per play, which is No. 119 in the FBS, and to make matters worse, linebacker Dre Greenlaw will miss the remainder of the year after suffering a foot injury last week (he was their leading tackler). Their offensive line is not playing up to their normal standard. In three games versus Power 5 teams, they are averaging 124 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry.
I used the Rebels in this spot in their last SEC game and they delivered a crushing 45-14 win over Georgia. After building a 45-0 lead, they yielded 193 of the 396 total yards allowed. Arkansas is playing a seventh straight week, while Ole Miss is fresh off a bye. I will keep riding the Rebels here.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 24
[h=2]No. 17 Virginia Tech Hokies (-19.5) atSyracuse Orange[/h]3:45 p.m., ESPNU
Last week I acknowledged that Washington was not in a great situation against Oregon, but I still selected the Huskies to roll on the road, and they did. This is the same type of game.
Virginia Tech is off a big win against defending Coastal Champ North Carolina and have a huge Thursday night home game against Miami on deck. They Hokies are a large favorite on the road. Last week's game was played in poor conditions as Virginia Tech had just 264 yards, but its scoring drives were 3, 28, 41, 22, 4 and 29 yards in scoring 34 points. This week the game is in a dome, so the offense should get back on track -- plus quarterback Jerod Evans has a 15-1 ratio. This is the same offense that put up 400 yards against Tennessee and 476 versus a tough Boston College defense.
Bud Foster's defense is holding foes to 201 yards per game below their average and allows just 40.8 percent completions. Dino Babers has changed schemes on both sides of the ball and does not have the personnel to fit them. The defense is allowing 100 yards per game more than their opponents average. The offense has gone from running 62.5 plays per game last year to a much more up-tempo 83.1 this year, but the points per game has gone from 27.3 to 25.6. Syracuse has already lost games at home by 34 and 25 points.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 47, Syracuse 23
[h=2]Arizona State Sun Devils (+13.5) overColorado Buffaloes[/h]8:00 p.m., Pac-12 Network
The Sun Devils had a backup quarterback last week, but still delivered for me in their upset of UCLA. I'm concerned that despite their 2-1 record in the Pac-12, they're being outgained by 190 yards per game. Last week's starting quarterbackBrady White is also likely out for the year while Manny Wilkins, who started the first five games, didn't practice Tuesday -- so it's possible ASU will have to go with true freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole.
The teams have one mutual opponent in USC, and while Colorado only lost by four on the road and the Sun Devils by 21, the stats were similar -- plus, Colorado could easily have lost by more last week. I love what Mike MacIntyre is doing with Colorado. The Buffs handled a large favorite role (-17) against Oregon State two weeks ago, winning 47-6. Still, this is a solid Arizona State team that is as much a contender in the South as Colorado. The Sun Devils have a massive edge on special teams with my No. 1-rated unit versus the No. 107-unit of the Buffs.
Arizona State has not only won the past seven in the series, but the Sun Devils won those games by an average of 27 points per game with every win by at least 14 points. Now they're a two-touchdown 'dog?
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: Colorado 34, Arizona State 28
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
My selections are off to a slower start this year, at 34-18 straight up (65 percent) and 24-26-2 ATS. On the weekly podcast with Anita Marks and Doug Kezirian, my selections are 12-7-1 ATS on the year, so check that out this Friday.
Here are my selections for this week's big games.
Note: All times are Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
I picked Utah to win at home over Arizona last week. The Utes trailed 14-3 but rolled the rest of the game. They outscored the Wildcats 36-3 until allowing a late 63-yard touchdown pass in garbage time. Oregon State will feel it can win this game after beating Cal at home in Week 6 -- the same Bears team that dealt Utah its only loss of the year two weeks ago.
Quarterback Darell Garretson, who was banged up in Oregon State's loss to Colorado, had 105 rushing yards and Ryan Nall added 221. The Beavers piled up their best offensive showing under Gary Andersen with 559 total yards. But despite those facts, I still believe Utah has the edge in all three phases, including a large edge on defense with my No. 12-rated unit (OSU rates 84th). Oregon State trailed Boise State 31-7 at the half in their Week 4 matchup in Corvallis after being outgained 435 yards to 67. The Beavers benefited from Cal quarterback Davis Webb injuring his throwing hand on the second series as he threw for just 124 yards on 45 pass attempts.
Utah is a clear contender in the Pac-12 South, while Oregon State is only in the second year of Andersen's rebuild, and the price is cheap.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 28, Oregon State 13
West Virginia is one of two Big 12 teams that remain unbeaten, and has risen to No. 20 in the AP poll. This is the Mountaineers' first game in an opponent's stadium this year, and it will be a tough test. They survived a close call in their Week 4 home matchup with BYU, and in their last game trailed Kansas State most of the way until pulling out a one-point home win.
Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes (shoulder injury) played last week, and the Red Raiders are outgaining FBS foes by 159 yards per game. West Virginia is only plus 42.6 yards per game against FBS opponents, despite not having to go on the road. Texas Tech has played to an average game grade of 91.9 (located on the team pages at philsteele.com) and has a solid home field edge, while West Virginia is playing to an average game grade of 88.8. My computer has the home team winning by a touchdown, and it is a slight 'dog.
ATS pick: Texas Tech (+)
Score: Texas Tech 45, West Virginia 38
I had no idea that NC State's game against Notre Dame would be played in a torrential downpour when I wrote this column last Tuesday. The Wolfpack got the game's only touchdown on a blocked punt. But this week, they will have a much tougher test.
Clemson got off to a slow start this year, but their offense is hitting their stride, much like they did around the same time last year. The Tigers topped 500 yards against both Louisville and Boston College's tough defenses while the defense is holding foes to 170 yards per game below their season average. Clemson has a big game against Florida State on deck, but have a bye next week. NC State is solid, but has beaten just one team that was in a bowl game the prior year in the past two seasons -- and that was last week in bad weather.
Clemson has taken on my No. 21-toughest schedule so far, and the Wolfpack my No. 94 toughest.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 38, NC State 14
Tennessee finishes its four-game gauntlet at home in front of its home crowd. The Vols have followed the same pattern nearly every game -- getting down big early, then playing a great second half to win. Last week, Tennessee lost in double overtime to Texas A&M, despite turning the ball over seven times and finishing minus four turnovers. The Vols had almost 700 yards of offense at College Station, and put up 498 yards against Florida two weeks ago, one of the best defenses in the country. They're a banged up team, but are getting nearly two touchdowns here.
Alabama's defense scored two more touchdowns last week, but I was alarmed by the 473 yards and 25 first downs they allowed to the Razorbacks. While they did win by 19, they also benefited from a 100-plus yard interception return, which was a 14-point swing. Earlier this year, they allowed 527 yards to Ole Miss and escaped with a five-point road win. Last year on the road, the Vols almost upset Alabama, with the Tide needing a touchdown with 2:24 left to escape with a five-point win.
I feel the Tide is the best team in the country and will win, but will take the nearly two touchdowns with a Tennessee team that is stronger than last year's squad and has Joshua Dobbs playing the best football of his career.
ATS pick: Tennessee (+)
Score: Alabama 37, Tennessee 30
A few weeks back I took Michigan at home over Wisconsin and did not get the ATS win. That game does give me some line value here. Michigan did have 349-159 yards and 21-8 first-down edges, but only won by seven. Ohio State could have been looking ahead to this last week in its 21-point win at Indiana. It finished that game with the ball deep in Hoosier territory and could have won by 28.
Wisconsin's offense is being limited to 52 yards per game below what their opponents allow on average in their past three games. Their defense is solid, holding foes to 121 yards per game below their season average. Ohio State has been much more dominant, averaging 127 yards per game more than what their opponents allow, and the defense is holding teams to 216 yards per game below their average.
Ohio State won at Michigan last year by 29 and at Oklahoma this year by 21.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 10
Oklahoma still has a great shot at winning the Big 12 and finishing the year at 10-2, as it'll be favored in the rest of its games. It has Samaje Perine and Joe Mixonat running back and Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Its offense is averaging 200 rushing and 300 passing yards per game. The Sooners are holding opponents to 81 yards per game below their average. They are worthy of being a big favorite here, but Bill Snyder is on the other sideline and that makes this an automatic play. There is no better coach in the country when he is installed as the 'dog. Already this year, Kansas State outgained Stanford on the road 335-272, led West Virginia almost start to finish before coming up three points short, but beat the Vegas number in each.
Kansas State is holding opponents to 94 yards per game below their season average and takes this one to the wire.
ATS pick: Kansas State (+)
Score: Oklahoma 30, Kansas State 26
Fourth and 25! Last year that was the predicament Arkansas faced in overtime against Ole Miss. The miracle play involved its tight end throwing the ball about 20 yards backwards, which was picked up by its running back, who broke some tackles and ran for a first down. If not for that play and subsequent loss, Ole Miss would have been in the SEC title game, and Alabama would not have even made the Playoff! There is a matter of revenge here.
While both teams are 4-2, I don't view them as equals. Ole Miss has a pair of close losses to Alabama and Florida State after having big leads in both games. Arkansas has two losses by an average of 20 points per game. Arkansas is allowing 315 rushing yards per game in SEC play, and a mind-boggling 8.9 yards per carry. The Razorback defense is allowing 6.6 yards per play, which is No. 119 in the FBS, and to make matters worse, linebacker Dre Greenlaw will miss the remainder of the year after suffering a foot injury last week (he was their leading tackler). Their offensive line is not playing up to their normal standard. In three games versus Power 5 teams, they are averaging 124 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry.
I used the Rebels in this spot in their last SEC game and they delivered a crushing 45-14 win over Georgia. After building a 45-0 lead, they yielded 193 of the 396 total yards allowed. Arkansas is playing a seventh straight week, while Ole Miss is fresh off a bye. I will keep riding the Rebels here.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 24
Last week I acknowledged that Washington was not in a great situation against Oregon, but I still selected the Huskies to roll on the road, and they did. This is the same type of game.
Virginia Tech is off a big win against defending Coastal Champ North Carolina and have a huge Thursday night home game against Miami on deck. They Hokies are a large favorite on the road. Last week's game was played in poor conditions as Virginia Tech had just 264 yards, but its scoring drives were 3, 28, 41, 22, 4 and 29 yards in scoring 34 points. This week the game is in a dome, so the offense should get back on track -- plus quarterback Jerod Evans has a 15-1 ratio. This is the same offense that put up 400 yards against Tennessee and 476 versus a tough Boston College defense.
Bud Foster's defense is holding foes to 201 yards per game below their average and allows just 40.8 percent completions. Dino Babers has changed schemes on both sides of the ball and does not have the personnel to fit them. The defense is allowing 100 yards per game more than their opponents average. The offense has gone from running 62.5 plays per game last year to a much more up-tempo 83.1 this year, but the points per game has gone from 27.3 to 25.6. Syracuse has already lost games at home by 34 and 25 points.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 47, Syracuse 23
The Sun Devils had a backup quarterback last week, but still delivered for me in their upset of UCLA. I'm concerned that despite their 2-1 record in the Pac-12, they're being outgained by 190 yards per game. Last week's starting quarterbackBrady White is also likely out for the year while Manny Wilkins, who started the first five games, didn't practice Tuesday -- so it's possible ASU will have to go with true freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole.
The teams have one mutual opponent in USC, and while Colorado only lost by four on the road and the Sun Devils by 21, the stats were similar -- plus, Colorado could easily have lost by more last week. I love what Mike MacIntyre is doing with Colorado. The Buffs handled a large favorite role (-17) against Oregon State two weeks ago, winning 47-6. Still, this is a solid Arizona State team that is as much a contender in the South as Colorado. The Sun Devils have a massive edge on special teams with my No. 1-rated unit versus the No. 107-unit of the Buffs.
Arizona State has not only won the past seven in the series, but the Sun Devils won those games by an average of 27 points per game with every win by at least 14 points. Now they're a two-touchdown 'dog?
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: Colorado 34, Arizona State 28
