[h=1]Phil Steele's best Week 6 college football bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
My selections are off to a much slower start this year, at 29-15 straight up (66 percent) and 20-23-1 ATS. On the weekly podcast with Anita Marks and Doug Kezirian, my selections are 10-5-1 ATS on the year, so check that out this Friday.
Here are my selections for this week's big games.
Note: All times are Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]Arizona Wildcats at No. 24 Utah Utes (-9.5)[/h]10:00 p.m., Fox Sports 1
Utah is coming off its first loss of the season after the Utes were stopped at the Cal 1-yard line at the end. I like the way quarterback Troy Williams is progressing, and true freshman running back Zack Moss and sophomoreArmand Shyne have combined for 504 yards rushing during the past three games. Utah takes on an Arizona defense that is allowing 459 yards per game.
The Wildcats took the redshirt offKhalil Tate, and he led three touchdown drives last week, but most were late, with the last ending with 36 seconds left to play. Utah has a top-notch defensive line that has helped the defense record 17 sacks, and the Utes are holding foes to just 324 yards per game and 95 yards below their season average. Utah has a solid special teams edge. This is the only home game in a four-week stretch, and the Utes will be fully prepared after losing four in a row, including three by upset to Arizona.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 31, Arizona 16
[h=2]Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 26 Western Michigan Broncos (-19)[/h]6:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Western Michigan is still not in the top 25, but the Broncos should be. They have a solid shot at being undefeated at the end of the year and the top Group of Five member. Northern Illinois has beaten Western seven straight years, has won six straight MAC West titles, is undefeated in MAC play this year -- yet is almost a three touchdown 'dog?
I had Western last week, and the Broncos delivered an easy 49-10 win against a solid Central Michigan team. Western has a balanced offense, averaging 247 rushing yards per game and 213 passing yards per game (completing 69.2 percent), while the defense is holding foes to 101 yards per game below their season average. Northern lost its first four games and the defense is allowing 485 yards per game. The Huskies put up 653 yards last week, but won't have that same success here.
Western continues its perfect run against the spread and wins their sixth straight impressive game, as the Broncos will be hell-bent on ending that losing streak to Northern.
ATS pick: Western Michigan
Score: Western Michigan 47, Northern Illinois 19
[h=2]No. 23 Florida State Seminoles (+3) at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes[/h]8:00 p.m., ABC
Florida State has lost two games this year and has not lived up to the preseason hype. Dalvin Cook has finally gotten unhitched and has 407 yards rushing during the past two weeks, while Deondre Francois just threw for 372 yards against North Carolina. The Seminoles' defense has allowed 438 yards per game, but is actually holding their foes to 72 yards below their season average, having taken on four of the FBS's top offenses.
Miami has out-gained its foes by an average of 474-253, but has taken on my No. 117-toughest schedule. Meanwhile, Florida State has faced my third-toughest schedule in the country. This is the first time the Noles have been installed as a 'dog in two regular-season games in the past five years. They will have a decent amount of fans here and have won six in a row vs. the Hurricanes, and five in a row in Miami.
Since 2011, Miami has played a grand total of one game matching top 25 teams. It lost that one to Florida State 41-14 in 2013.
ATS pick: Florida State (+)
Score: Florida State 35, Miami 34
[h=2]No. 28 LSU Tigers (-2.5) at No. 18 Florida Gators[/h]Noon, ESPN
LSU running back Leonard Fournette could miss this game, but the Tigers still have the talent edge. Ed Orgeron is the first Cajun to coach LSU, and the team responded last week by finally playing up to its talent level in its 42-7 romp against Missouri. The Tigers put up 634 yards without Fournette, and the defense held Missouri to a season-low 265 yards. Their defense is holding foes to 153 yards below their season average. They've beaten Florida three straight years.
Last week, Florida fumbled a snap on second and goal at the 1-yard line, or they would have otherwise beaten Vanderbilt by 14. Surprisingly, they were out-gained 265-236. LSU has taken on a much tougher schedule so far, and Florida's vaunted defense is holding foes to 126 yards below their season average.
With the defenses even, I give LSU the offense and special teams edges. Orgeron won six of his first seven after taking over at USC, and I expect a similar turnaround here.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 20, Florida 13
[h=2]No. 27 UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils (+10)[/h]10:30 p.m., ESPN2
Arizona State lost its quarterback Manny Wilkins in the second quarter last week, and Brady White hadn't had enough reps with the ones to come in and succeed -- and that was on the road versus a desperate USC team. Here, he's taken the number one reps (see the turnaround by Steven Montez of Colorado two weeks ago) and is home at night.
UCLA is my pick to win the South Division, and the Bruins have a large edge on defense. Arizona State has the edge on offense and the home edge at night, plus it has my No. 2-rated special teams vs. the No. 85 unit of UCLA. Arizona State has already beaten Cal and Texas Tech at home. UCLA only got past BYU by three on the road.
I'll call for UCLA to win the game, but only by a late field goal late night in the desert.
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: UCLA 30, Arizona State 27
[h=2]No. 5 Washington Huskies (-8) at Oregon Ducks[/h]7:30 p.m., Fox
This pick goes against history and the situation. Oregon has not only beaten Washington 12 straight years, the Ducks have won by more than the Vegas total each time. Last year, I had Oregon in this column and it delivered the upset for me in Husky Stadium.
Now the Ducks are at home and coming off a loss, hosting a Washington team that comes in off a huge home win against Stanford and now must travel as a touchdown favorite.
I'm still siding with the more talented team here. Oregon is thought to have the offensive edge and has better depth at the skill positions. I give the edge to the Huskies at quarterback with Jake Browning, who has hit 71 percent of his passes (17-2 ratio). They also have a more veteran offensive line. Washington has a huge edge on defense as well, allowing just 299 yards per game with 21 sacks in just five games. Oregon allows 490 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
I'll take the more talented team to end the 12-game series losing streak.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 41, Oregon 27
[h=2]Washington State Cougars at No. 15Stanford Cardinal (-7)[/h]10:30 p.m., ESPN
This game could give you the line value of the week. Had these two met last week, Stanford would've been about a two-touchdown favorite, but the Cardinal got blown out by Washington last week, 44-6.
Washington State stumbled into last week 1-2, was a home 'dog to Oregon, but rolled over the Ducks 51-33 with 651 yards of offense. Stanford has won eight in a row in the series, but after winning the first seven by an average of 26.5 points per game, needed a missed Cougar field goal to escape with a two-point win last year. Now Stanford is off a loss and will be well prepared after last year's close win.
The offenses are close to even, but Stanford has the massive edge on defense and special teams, and David Shaw is 9-1 against the spread after a loss.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 35, Washington State 23
[h=2]No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (+7) at No. 9Texas A&M Aggies[/h]3:30 p.m., CBS
Two undefeated top 10 teams battle it out here. The Aggies have opened each of the past two years 5-0, but have gone just 6-10 after that, including 3-13 ATS. This year's team looks to be better equipped as it averages 259 yards rushing per game and 6.7 yards per carry. Its defense, after allowing 5.0 yards per carry in each of the past two years, is giving up just 135 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry on the ground.
Tennessee is coming off back-to-back big games and must travel for a second straight week. Both teams deserve to be in the top 10, and Tennessee continues to gain confidence with each comeback win.
I'll call for this game to live up to the advanced billing, and be decided by a field goal or less, and that has me taking the points.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Texas A&M 28, Tennessee 27
[h=2]Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1) at NC State Wolfpack[/h]Noon, ABC
I know that neither team is ranked, but this is Notre Dame and it's on ABC at noon, so it fits in this space.
Notre Dame is just 2-3 on the year and has a defense that is allowing 461 yards per game and recorded just five sacks. NC State is 3-1 and has a defense that allows just 322 yards per game with 11 sacks. The Wolfpack are also at home and new quarterback Ryan Finley is completing 72 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. I understand why the Wolfpack are favored, but this is a desperate Notre Dame team that still has a lot of talent. Notre Dame has faced my No. 36-toughest schedule, while NC State has taken on my No. 109 toughest slate.
Last year, NC State was 0-6 against bowl eligible teams, and 7-0 against the lightweights. This year, it has not yet taken on a team that was in a bowl last year, and are 3-1.
I'll call for the Irish to pull the upset, evening their record at 3-3.
ATS pick: Notre Dame (+)
Score: Notre Dame 34, NC State 30
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
My selections are off to a much slower start this year, at 29-15 straight up (66 percent) and 20-23-1 ATS. On the weekly podcast with Anita Marks and Doug Kezirian, my selections are 10-5-1 ATS on the year, so check that out this Friday.
Here are my selections for this week's big games.
Note: All times are Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Utah is coming off its first loss of the season after the Utes were stopped at the Cal 1-yard line at the end. I like the way quarterback Troy Williams is progressing, and true freshman running back Zack Moss and sophomoreArmand Shyne have combined for 504 yards rushing during the past three games. Utah takes on an Arizona defense that is allowing 459 yards per game.
The Wildcats took the redshirt offKhalil Tate, and he led three touchdown drives last week, but most were late, with the last ending with 36 seconds left to play. Utah has a top-notch defensive line that has helped the defense record 17 sacks, and the Utes are holding foes to just 324 yards per game and 95 yards below their season average. Utah has a solid special teams edge. This is the only home game in a four-week stretch, and the Utes will be fully prepared after losing four in a row, including three by upset to Arizona.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 31, Arizona 16
[h=2]Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 26 Western Michigan Broncos (-19)[/h]6:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Western Michigan is still not in the top 25, but the Broncos should be. They have a solid shot at being undefeated at the end of the year and the top Group of Five member. Northern Illinois has beaten Western seven straight years, has won six straight MAC West titles, is undefeated in MAC play this year -- yet is almost a three touchdown 'dog?
I had Western last week, and the Broncos delivered an easy 49-10 win against a solid Central Michigan team. Western has a balanced offense, averaging 247 rushing yards per game and 213 passing yards per game (completing 69.2 percent), while the defense is holding foes to 101 yards per game below their season average. Northern lost its first four games and the defense is allowing 485 yards per game. The Huskies put up 653 yards last week, but won't have that same success here.
Western continues its perfect run against the spread and wins their sixth straight impressive game, as the Broncos will be hell-bent on ending that losing streak to Northern.
ATS pick: Western Michigan
Score: Western Michigan 47, Northern Illinois 19
[h=2]No. 23 Florida State Seminoles (+3) at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes[/h]8:00 p.m., ABC
Florida State has lost two games this year and has not lived up to the preseason hype. Dalvin Cook has finally gotten unhitched and has 407 yards rushing during the past two weeks, while Deondre Francois just threw for 372 yards against North Carolina. The Seminoles' defense has allowed 438 yards per game, but is actually holding their foes to 72 yards below their season average, having taken on four of the FBS's top offenses.
Miami has out-gained its foes by an average of 474-253, but has taken on my No. 117-toughest schedule. Meanwhile, Florida State has faced my third-toughest schedule in the country. This is the first time the Noles have been installed as a 'dog in two regular-season games in the past five years. They will have a decent amount of fans here and have won six in a row vs. the Hurricanes, and five in a row in Miami.
Since 2011, Miami has played a grand total of one game matching top 25 teams. It lost that one to Florida State 41-14 in 2013.
ATS pick: Florida State (+)
Score: Florida State 35, Miami 34
[h=2]No. 28 LSU Tigers (-2.5) at No. 18 Florida Gators[/h]Noon, ESPN
LSU running back Leonard Fournette could miss this game, but the Tigers still have the talent edge. Ed Orgeron is the first Cajun to coach LSU, and the team responded last week by finally playing up to its talent level in its 42-7 romp against Missouri. The Tigers put up 634 yards without Fournette, and the defense held Missouri to a season-low 265 yards. Their defense is holding foes to 153 yards below their season average. They've beaten Florida three straight years.
Last week, Florida fumbled a snap on second and goal at the 1-yard line, or they would have otherwise beaten Vanderbilt by 14. Surprisingly, they were out-gained 265-236. LSU has taken on a much tougher schedule so far, and Florida's vaunted defense is holding foes to 126 yards below their season average.
With the defenses even, I give LSU the offense and special teams edges. Orgeron won six of his first seven after taking over at USC, and I expect a similar turnaround here.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 20, Florida 13
[h=2]No. 27 UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils (+10)[/h]10:30 p.m., ESPN2
Arizona State lost its quarterback Manny Wilkins in the second quarter last week, and Brady White hadn't had enough reps with the ones to come in and succeed -- and that was on the road versus a desperate USC team. Here, he's taken the number one reps (see the turnaround by Steven Montez of Colorado two weeks ago) and is home at night.
UCLA is my pick to win the South Division, and the Bruins have a large edge on defense. Arizona State has the edge on offense and the home edge at night, plus it has my No. 2-rated special teams vs. the No. 85 unit of UCLA. Arizona State has already beaten Cal and Texas Tech at home. UCLA only got past BYU by three on the road.
I'll call for UCLA to win the game, but only by a late field goal late night in the desert.
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: UCLA 30, Arizona State 27
[h=2]No. 5 Washington Huskies (-8) at Oregon Ducks[/h]7:30 p.m., Fox
This pick goes against history and the situation. Oregon has not only beaten Washington 12 straight years, the Ducks have won by more than the Vegas total each time. Last year, I had Oregon in this column and it delivered the upset for me in Husky Stadium.
Now the Ducks are at home and coming off a loss, hosting a Washington team that comes in off a huge home win against Stanford and now must travel as a touchdown favorite.
I'm still siding with the more talented team here. Oregon is thought to have the offensive edge and has better depth at the skill positions. I give the edge to the Huskies at quarterback with Jake Browning, who has hit 71 percent of his passes (17-2 ratio). They also have a more veteran offensive line. Washington has a huge edge on defense as well, allowing just 299 yards per game with 21 sacks in just five games. Oregon allows 490 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
I'll take the more talented team to end the 12-game series losing streak.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 41, Oregon 27
[h=2]Washington State Cougars at No. 15Stanford Cardinal (-7)[/h]10:30 p.m., ESPN
This game could give you the line value of the week. Had these two met last week, Stanford would've been about a two-touchdown favorite, but the Cardinal got blown out by Washington last week, 44-6.
Washington State stumbled into last week 1-2, was a home 'dog to Oregon, but rolled over the Ducks 51-33 with 651 yards of offense. Stanford has won eight in a row in the series, but after winning the first seven by an average of 26.5 points per game, needed a missed Cougar field goal to escape with a two-point win last year. Now Stanford is off a loss and will be well prepared after last year's close win.
The offenses are close to even, but Stanford has the massive edge on defense and special teams, and David Shaw is 9-1 against the spread after a loss.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 35, Washington State 23
[h=2]No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (+7) at No. 9Texas A&M Aggies[/h]3:30 p.m., CBS
Two undefeated top 10 teams battle it out here. The Aggies have opened each of the past two years 5-0, but have gone just 6-10 after that, including 3-13 ATS. This year's team looks to be better equipped as it averages 259 yards rushing per game and 6.7 yards per carry. Its defense, after allowing 5.0 yards per carry in each of the past two years, is giving up just 135 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry on the ground.
Tennessee is coming off back-to-back big games and must travel for a second straight week. Both teams deserve to be in the top 10, and Tennessee continues to gain confidence with each comeback win.
I'll call for this game to live up to the advanced billing, and be decided by a field goal or less, and that has me taking the points.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Texas A&M 28, Tennessee 27
[h=2]Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1) at NC State Wolfpack[/h]Noon, ABC
I know that neither team is ranked, but this is Notre Dame and it's on ABC at noon, so it fits in this space.
Notre Dame is just 2-3 on the year and has a defense that is allowing 461 yards per game and recorded just five sacks. NC State is 3-1 and has a defense that allows just 322 yards per game with 11 sacks. The Wolfpack are also at home and new quarterback Ryan Finley is completing 72 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. I understand why the Wolfpack are favored, but this is a desperate Notre Dame team that still has a lot of talent. Notre Dame has faced my No. 36-toughest schedule, while NC State has taken on my No. 109 toughest slate.
Last year, NC State was 0-6 against bowl eligible teams, and 7-0 against the lightweights. This year, it has not yet taken on a team that was in a bowl last year, and are 3-1.
I'll call for the Irish to pull the upset, evening their record at 3-3.
ATS pick: Notre Dame (+)
Score: Notre Dame 34, NC State 30
