[h=1]Phil Steele's best Week 5 college football bets[/h]Phil Steele
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
My selections are off to a slower start this year, at 23-11 straight up (68 percent) and 17-17 ATS.
Here are my selections on this week's big games, and the first time this season that I have the full complement of 10 selections. I am calling for three outright upsets.
Note: All times are Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
[h=2]No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (-3) at No. 25Georgia Bulldogs[/h]3:30 p.m., CBS
I have had the Volunteers' game as a selection each of the past three weeks and have gone 3-0 in their games, picking against them vs. Ohio two weeks ago.
Tennessee is in the midst of the toughest four-week gauntlet of any team this season, coming off a Week 4 matchup with Florida then heading to Texas A&M next week before hosting in Week 7.
The Bulldogs get this game between the hedges and have their backs to the wall. While the situation favors Georgia, I have to side with the more talented team. Tennessee has already beaten solid Virginia Tech and Florida teams and put up 498 yards against a Florida defense that had allowed just 130 yards per game before that. The Vols would have had more but had six drops in the first half.
Georgia trailed Ole Miss 45-0 last week before gaining 193 of their yards and scoring two touchdowns during garbage time, when the game was already far out of reach.
Tennessee has the stronger offense, defense and special teams and now has confidence after ending that 11-game losing streak to Florida.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 30, Georgia 20
[h=2]Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-35)[/h]Noon, ESPN
It might not sound like a smart move to lay five touchdowns in an SEC game, but I'm willing to do so here.
Coach Nick Saban has the most talented team in the country and has them playing to the final gun each week. The Tide does have road trips to Arkansas and Tennessee on deck, but the defense has a shot at the shutout. Over the past two weeks they have heard Florida has "the best defense in the country" and how the Gators held Kentucky to nine first downs and 149 yards in Week 2, with 65 of those yards coming on a drive for a garbage touchdown with 4:45 left and Florida up 45-0. Alabama has a slightly better defense and a much stronger offense.
In the second half vs. Southern Miss, first half vs. South Carolina and four quarters vs. Florida, Kentucky had one field goal and that garbage touchdown as their only scores. Kentucky gave up 44, 45 and 42 points in their first three games. Meanwhile, my computer has Alabama scoring 52.
With the look ahead, I'll cut that down to 48. I don't see the Tide defense allowing a touchdown, and the number will seem cheap by the end of the game.
Kentucky's Week 6 matchup with Vanderbilt is actually more important for their bowl chances.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 48, Kentucky 6
[h=2]Western Michigan Broncos (-3.5) at Central Michigan Chippewas[/h]7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
I know this game doesn't involve a top-25 team, but I want to shine a little spotlight on a great game in the MAC, as these two teams have combined to knock off three Power 5 teams.
Western quarterback Zach Terrell is completing 69.4 percent with a 9-0 ratio. Running back Jamauri Bogan has 527 rushing yards and a nifty 5.9 average.Corey Davis is one of the top wide receivers for next year's draft, and the offensive line is a solid veteran group. The Broncos defense is holding opponents to 84 yards below their season average and registered seven sacks in two games vs. Big Ten foes. They're yielding 334 yards per game to FBS foes.
Central has the best NFL quarterback prospect the MAC has to offer in Cooper Rush, who is throwing for 338 yards per game. The offensive line has allowed 11 sacks. Central is allowing 404 yards per game vs. FBS foes, with just four sacks in three games.
Western has the edge on both sides of the ball, and a large edge on special teams (No. 23 vs. No. 106). Western has won their past two trips here by double digits. This should be a great "MACtion" matchup, but this Western team is capable of going unbeaten and contending for that Group of 5 New Year's bowl bid.
ATS pick: Western Michigan
Score: Western Michigan 41, Central Michigan 31
[h=2]Oklahoma Sooners at No. 21 TCU Horned Frogs (+3.5)[/h]5:00 p.m., Fox
TCU failed its first test of the season, losing at home to Arkansas. Now the Frogs face an even more talented Oklahoma team. This game could determine who wins the Big 12, and the Sooners have not lost a conference game yet. Despite their 1-2 record, Oklahoma is holding its opponents to 121 yards below their season average, and the Sooners offense is averaging 217 yards above what its foes allow. It's worth noting that the Sooners' losses are to a pair of top-10 teams.
While the Frogs lost to Arkansas, they had a 572-403 yardage edge in that game and looked like the stronger team. TCU was without their quarterback and top wide receiver and came within a missed 2-point conversion of beating Oklahoma on the road last year. Breaking down the opponents and results, my computer projects a 35-31 TCU win and shows the Frogs with a 516-450 edge in yardage. I will agree with those numbers.
ATS pick: TCU (+)
Score: TCU 35, Oklahoma 31
[h=2]No. 23 Florida Gators (-9.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores[/h]Noon, SEC Network
While there are a lot of disappointed folks who backed Florida last week, I was impressed with the Gators in their Week 4 loss to Tennessee. Florida put up 300 yards in the first half against a primed Volunteers defense. The second half wasn't pretty, but now I can take the Gators off a loss. Their defense had been allowing 130 yards per game but was routed for 498 yards and figures to be in an angry mood.
Florida sleepwalked through the game against Vanderbilt last year and was lucky to escape with a 9-7 win. The Gators defense, however, allowed just 175 yards, with 74 of those coming on one touchdown run. Florida won here last year 34-10.
Vanderbilt delivered an upset win last week over Western Kentucky. While their offense looks improved, they're averaging just 258 yards per game vs. Power 5 foes and average 92 yards less than what their opponents are allowing. Their defense allowed just 351 yards per games last year but this year is allowing 453 yards per game, including 5.4 yards per rush. The Commodores have just four sacks, despite being a veteran group. Yes, Florida has LSU on deck, but after last year's weak performance and coming off a loss, I'll go with a Gators bounce-back.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 9
[h=2]Kansas State Wildcats (+3.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers[/h]3:30 p.m., ESPNU
This is an automatic every time Kansas State is a underdog. Coach Bill Snyder is 16-5 against the spread as an away 'dog, with eight outright upsets. Earlier this year, I had the Wildcats in this column as a 'dog at now-No. 7 Stanford. Kansas State actually had a 335-272 edge in yardage in that matchup, with Stanford getting a late touchdown to win by a noncovering 13 points.
West Virginia is 3-0, but the Mountaineers' defense is allowing 463 yards per game. Kansas State played only one half last week vs. Missouri State (game called for weather and noncompetitiveness) as they won 35-0. My website is counting that for half a game, so in 2.5 games, they're still allowing just 179 yards per game. That's a large defensive edge, and they'll have the edge on special teams as well. Snyder is 4-0 against West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen, with three of those wins being outright upsets.
ATS pick: Kansas State (+)
Score: Kansas State 30, West Virginia 24
[h=2]No. 21 Texas Longhorns (+3) at Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]Noon, ABC
I have picked Texas each week in this column, and while they opened 2-0, they blew numerous double-digit leads at California two weeks ago and lost outright. The Longhorns have a balanced offense, averaging 238 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game. The defense has taken some lumps, allowing 397 yards per game but has held two foes to season lows and is holding opponents to 77 yards per game below their season average. Oklahoma State is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry and just 129 rushing yards per game. The Pokes defense is allowing 489 yards per game against FBS foes (15 more than opponents season average).
Texas is the stronger, more balanced team, and the Longhorns won their past eight trips to Stillwater. I will top it off with the fact that Texas is fresh off a bye, while the Cowboys just fought through three straight games that came down to the wire, ultimately losing two of them.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 34
[h=2]No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-10)[/h]3:30 p.m., ABC
This game features two of the top defenses in the country. Michigan is holding its opponents to 200 yards per game below their season average and already has recorded 17 sacks. Wisconsin is holding foes to just 277 yards per game, 110 yards below their season average.
The Wolverines offense is loaded at receiver. Running back De'Veon Smith and quarterback Wilton Speight are starting to emerge, with Speight having a 9-0 ratio since his first pass interception. They average 111 yards per game more than their opponents are allowing and are balanced with 230 rushing yards per game and 238 passing yards per game. They did benefit from taking on a Penn State defense that was missing its top three linebackers last week, however. Wisconsin has one the nation's best special teams, but the Badgers' usual edge in that category in negated by an outstanding Michigan special teams unit.
Last week, Wisconsin had the situational edge, catching Michigan State off a big win. This week, the Wolverines have that edge, with the Badgers off a big road win and traveling again. My computer shows Michigan finishing with a 411-266 advantage in yards.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 34, Wisconsin 17
[h=2]No. 17 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+7)[/h]8 p.m., Big Ten Network
I'll let my computer pick this game. Michigan State trailed Wisconsin only 13-6 at the half last week and had led in yardage 325-317 but was minus-2 on turnovers. I look at Michigan State off a loss to an Indiana team that just lost to Wake Forest at home, and my knee-jerk reaction is to take the ranked team on the road.
The Spartans have won their past five games off a loss by 25.2 points per game, covering each one. My computer is actually picking Indiana to win outright, 24-22, winning the yardage battle 428-388. Looking into it deeper, I started to understand the logic. Indiana outgained Wake Forest 611-352 last week but was done in by a minus-5 turnover margin. Last year, the game was 28-26 in the fourth quarter, but Indiana started going for it on fourth down in their own territory and it turned into a blowout on the scoreboard.
Last year, Indiana showed it could play with the big boys, taking Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa to the wire. Indiana has a much-improved defense. The Hoosiers allowed 509 yards per game last year but just 351 yards per game this year. I won't be as bold as my computer, calling for the outright upset, but will take the home 'dog.
ATS pick: Indiana (+)
Score: Michigan State 24, Indiana 23
[h=2]Arizona State Sun Devils (+10.5) at USC Trojans[/h]8 p.m., Fox
I am scratching my head over this game. I liked USC a lot in this game last year, and the Trojans rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead then won, 42-14. I know that in the summer, USC was an 11-point favorite. The Trojans have taken on the nation's toughest schedule so far, while Arizona State has faced only my No. 80 schedule.
USC has their backs to the wall after a 1-3 start, while Arizona State is 4-0. The Sun Devils were outgained by 183 yards against Cal last week in a misleading 10-point win, as they returned an onside kick for the backdoor cover. When I looked at this game, I wondered which team I would favor, so I'm very surprised to find Arizona State as a double-digit underdog.
Manny Wilkins is completing 67 percent of his passes and has rushed for 263 yards for the Sun Devils. The best way to beat Arizona State is through the air, as they're allowing just 95 rushing yards per game, with a 3.1 average yard per carry. I will call for this game to go down to the wire in a possible upset and take the generous points.
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: USC 34, Arizona State 33
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
My selections are off to a slower start this year, at 23-11 straight up (68 percent) and 17-17 ATS.
Here are my selections on this week's big games, and the first time this season that I have the full complement of 10 selections. I am calling for three outright upsets.
Note: All times are Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
I have had the Volunteers' game as a selection each of the past three weeks and have gone 3-0 in their games, picking against them vs. Ohio two weeks ago.
Tennessee is in the midst of the toughest four-week gauntlet of any team this season, coming off a Week 4 matchup with Florida then heading to Texas A&M next week before hosting in Week 7.
The Bulldogs get this game between the hedges and have their backs to the wall. While the situation favors Georgia, I have to side with the more talented team. Tennessee has already beaten solid Virginia Tech and Florida teams and put up 498 yards against a Florida defense that had allowed just 130 yards per game before that. The Vols would have had more but had six drops in the first half.
Georgia trailed Ole Miss 45-0 last week before gaining 193 of their yards and scoring two touchdowns during garbage time, when the game was already far out of reach.
Tennessee has the stronger offense, defense and special teams and now has confidence after ending that 11-game losing streak to Florida.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 30, Georgia 20
[h=2]Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-35)[/h]Noon, ESPN
It might not sound like a smart move to lay five touchdowns in an SEC game, but I'm willing to do so here.
Coach Nick Saban has the most talented team in the country and has them playing to the final gun each week. The Tide does have road trips to Arkansas and Tennessee on deck, but the defense has a shot at the shutout. Over the past two weeks they have heard Florida has "the best defense in the country" and how the Gators held Kentucky to nine first downs and 149 yards in Week 2, with 65 of those yards coming on a drive for a garbage touchdown with 4:45 left and Florida up 45-0. Alabama has a slightly better defense and a much stronger offense.
In the second half vs. Southern Miss, first half vs. South Carolina and four quarters vs. Florida, Kentucky had one field goal and that garbage touchdown as their only scores. Kentucky gave up 44, 45 and 42 points in their first three games. Meanwhile, my computer has Alabama scoring 52.
With the look ahead, I'll cut that down to 48. I don't see the Tide defense allowing a touchdown, and the number will seem cheap by the end of the game.
Kentucky's Week 6 matchup with Vanderbilt is actually more important for their bowl chances.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 48, Kentucky 6
[h=2]Western Michigan Broncos (-3.5) at Central Michigan Chippewas[/h]7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
I know this game doesn't involve a top-25 team, but I want to shine a little spotlight on a great game in the MAC, as these two teams have combined to knock off three Power 5 teams.
Western quarterback Zach Terrell is completing 69.4 percent with a 9-0 ratio. Running back Jamauri Bogan has 527 rushing yards and a nifty 5.9 average.Corey Davis is one of the top wide receivers for next year's draft, and the offensive line is a solid veteran group. The Broncos defense is holding opponents to 84 yards below their season average and registered seven sacks in two games vs. Big Ten foes. They're yielding 334 yards per game to FBS foes.
Central has the best NFL quarterback prospect the MAC has to offer in Cooper Rush, who is throwing for 338 yards per game. The offensive line has allowed 11 sacks. Central is allowing 404 yards per game vs. FBS foes, with just four sacks in three games.
Western has the edge on both sides of the ball, and a large edge on special teams (No. 23 vs. No. 106). Western has won their past two trips here by double digits. This should be a great "MACtion" matchup, but this Western team is capable of going unbeaten and contending for that Group of 5 New Year's bowl bid.
ATS pick: Western Michigan
Score: Western Michigan 41, Central Michigan 31
[h=2]Oklahoma Sooners at No. 21 TCU Horned Frogs (+3.5)[/h]5:00 p.m., Fox
TCU failed its first test of the season, losing at home to Arkansas. Now the Frogs face an even more talented Oklahoma team. This game could determine who wins the Big 12, and the Sooners have not lost a conference game yet. Despite their 1-2 record, Oklahoma is holding its opponents to 121 yards below their season average, and the Sooners offense is averaging 217 yards above what its foes allow. It's worth noting that the Sooners' losses are to a pair of top-10 teams.
While the Frogs lost to Arkansas, they had a 572-403 yardage edge in that game and looked like the stronger team. TCU was without their quarterback and top wide receiver and came within a missed 2-point conversion of beating Oklahoma on the road last year. Breaking down the opponents and results, my computer projects a 35-31 TCU win and shows the Frogs with a 516-450 edge in yardage. I will agree with those numbers.
ATS pick: TCU (+)
Score: TCU 35, Oklahoma 31
[h=2]No. 23 Florida Gators (-9.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores[/h]Noon, SEC Network
While there are a lot of disappointed folks who backed Florida last week, I was impressed with the Gators in their Week 4 loss to Tennessee. Florida put up 300 yards in the first half against a primed Volunteers defense. The second half wasn't pretty, but now I can take the Gators off a loss. Their defense had been allowing 130 yards per game but was routed for 498 yards and figures to be in an angry mood.
Florida sleepwalked through the game against Vanderbilt last year and was lucky to escape with a 9-7 win. The Gators defense, however, allowed just 175 yards, with 74 of those coming on one touchdown run. Florida won here last year 34-10.
Vanderbilt delivered an upset win last week over Western Kentucky. While their offense looks improved, they're averaging just 258 yards per game vs. Power 5 foes and average 92 yards less than what their opponents are allowing. Their defense allowed just 351 yards per games last year but this year is allowing 453 yards per game, including 5.4 yards per rush. The Commodores have just four sacks, despite being a veteran group. Yes, Florida has LSU on deck, but after last year's weak performance and coming off a loss, I'll go with a Gators bounce-back.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 9
[h=2]Kansas State Wildcats (+3.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers[/h]3:30 p.m., ESPNU
This is an automatic every time Kansas State is a underdog. Coach Bill Snyder is 16-5 against the spread as an away 'dog, with eight outright upsets. Earlier this year, I had the Wildcats in this column as a 'dog at now-No. 7 Stanford. Kansas State actually had a 335-272 edge in yardage in that matchup, with Stanford getting a late touchdown to win by a noncovering 13 points.
West Virginia is 3-0, but the Mountaineers' defense is allowing 463 yards per game. Kansas State played only one half last week vs. Missouri State (game called for weather and noncompetitiveness) as they won 35-0. My website is counting that for half a game, so in 2.5 games, they're still allowing just 179 yards per game. That's a large defensive edge, and they'll have the edge on special teams as well. Snyder is 4-0 against West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen, with three of those wins being outright upsets.
ATS pick: Kansas State (+)
Score: Kansas State 30, West Virginia 24
[h=2]No. 21 Texas Longhorns (+3) at Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]Noon, ABC
I have picked Texas each week in this column, and while they opened 2-0, they blew numerous double-digit leads at California two weeks ago and lost outright. The Longhorns have a balanced offense, averaging 238 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game. The defense has taken some lumps, allowing 397 yards per game but has held two foes to season lows and is holding opponents to 77 yards per game below their season average. Oklahoma State is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry and just 129 rushing yards per game. The Pokes defense is allowing 489 yards per game against FBS foes (15 more than opponents season average).
Texas is the stronger, more balanced team, and the Longhorns won their past eight trips to Stillwater. I will top it off with the fact that Texas is fresh off a bye, while the Cowboys just fought through three straight games that came down to the wire, ultimately losing two of them.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 34
[h=2]No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-10)[/h]3:30 p.m., ABC
This game features two of the top defenses in the country. Michigan is holding its opponents to 200 yards per game below their season average and already has recorded 17 sacks. Wisconsin is holding foes to just 277 yards per game, 110 yards below their season average.
The Wolverines offense is loaded at receiver. Running back De'Veon Smith and quarterback Wilton Speight are starting to emerge, with Speight having a 9-0 ratio since his first pass interception. They average 111 yards per game more than their opponents are allowing and are balanced with 230 rushing yards per game and 238 passing yards per game. They did benefit from taking on a Penn State defense that was missing its top three linebackers last week, however. Wisconsin has one the nation's best special teams, but the Badgers' usual edge in that category in negated by an outstanding Michigan special teams unit.
Last week, Wisconsin had the situational edge, catching Michigan State off a big win. This week, the Wolverines have that edge, with the Badgers off a big road win and traveling again. My computer shows Michigan finishing with a 411-266 advantage in yards.
ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 34, Wisconsin 17
[h=2]No. 17 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+7)[/h]8 p.m., Big Ten Network
I'll let my computer pick this game. Michigan State trailed Wisconsin only 13-6 at the half last week and had led in yardage 325-317 but was minus-2 on turnovers. I look at Michigan State off a loss to an Indiana team that just lost to Wake Forest at home, and my knee-jerk reaction is to take the ranked team on the road.
The Spartans have won their past five games off a loss by 25.2 points per game, covering each one. My computer is actually picking Indiana to win outright, 24-22, winning the yardage battle 428-388. Looking into it deeper, I started to understand the logic. Indiana outgained Wake Forest 611-352 last week but was done in by a minus-5 turnover margin. Last year, the game was 28-26 in the fourth quarter, but Indiana started going for it on fourth down in their own territory and it turned into a blowout on the scoreboard.
Last year, Indiana showed it could play with the big boys, taking Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa to the wire. Indiana has a much-improved defense. The Hoosiers allowed 509 yards per game last year but just 351 yards per game this year. I won't be as bold as my computer, calling for the outright upset, but will take the home 'dog.
ATS pick: Indiana (+)
Score: Michigan State 24, Indiana 23
[h=2]Arizona State Sun Devils (+10.5) at USC Trojans[/h]8 p.m., Fox
I am scratching my head over this game. I liked USC a lot in this game last year, and the Trojans rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead then won, 42-14. I know that in the summer, USC was an 11-point favorite. The Trojans have taken on the nation's toughest schedule so far, while Arizona State has faced only my No. 80 schedule.
USC has their backs to the wall after a 1-3 start, while Arizona State is 4-0. The Sun Devils were outgained by 183 yards against Cal last week in a misleading 10-point win, as they returned an onside kick for the backdoor cover. When I looked at this game, I wondered which team I would favor, so I'm very surprised to find Arizona State as a double-digit underdog.
Manny Wilkins is completing 67 percent of his passes and has rushed for 263 yards for the Sun Devils. The best way to beat Arizona State is through the air, as they're allowing just 95 rushing yards per game, with a 3.1 average yard per carry. I will call for this game to go down to the wire in a possible upset and take the generous points.
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: USC 34, Arizona State 33
