[h=1]Big 12 forecast: Oklahoma deserves the hype[/h]Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer
ESpn insider
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.Sure, Oklahoma has emerged as the near-consensus Big 12 favorite for 2016. But after the Sooners? Good luck finding any agreement on who will finish where in what could be a wild conference season.
Here's a complete breakdown of how things project in the Big 12.
[h=2][/h][h=2]1. Oklahoma Sooners[/h][h=2][/h]
Once Oklahoma lost to Texas last year, the Sooners dominated the Big 12 -- in the final seven regular-season games, they averaged 299.9 yards per game rushing and 293 yards per game passing -- and that included facing No. 4 Baylor, No. 11 TCU and No. 9 Oklahoma State. The past four times the Sooners have been ranked in the preseason top five, they have not finished higher than No. 15 in the AP poll. Meanwhile, in the three years they've not been in the preseason AP Top 10, they have a national title, a playoff berth and a No. 6 AP finish. The Sooners have my No. 1-rated defense and were plus-192.2 in yards per game differential in Big 12 play last season.
[h=2]2. TCU Horned Frogs[/h][h=2][/h]
A quick glance at TCU shows just 11 returning starters, but the Horned Frogs are much more experienced than the three returning starters on offense. TCU has my No. 2-rated defense in the Big 12 and is one of my top surprise teams in the country. The Horned Frogs are a clear Big 12 and national title contender.
[h=2]3. Baylor Bears[/h][h=2][/h]
The Bears are strong in almost every area except the one that I consider highly, and that is line play. Baylor has just one starter back among the offensive and defensive lines combined. The Bears are loaded with skill players on offense and in the back seven on defense. They should have the most explosive offense in the country once again. Their toughest test is a road trip to Norman on Nov. 12, but the last time the Bears were there, they passed that test by a 48-14 margin. Baylor is still a Big 12 contender even after replacing Art Briles with Jim Grobe.
[h=2]4. Texas Longhorns[/h][h=2][/h]
Texas' offense may make the same type of improvement that TCU's did in 2014. Not only are the Longhorns shifting to the veer-and-shoot offense, but they get an upgrade at quarterback and running back and have seven offensive starters back. The defense has eight starters back and figures to be stronger after taking a step back in 2015. Texas gets Baylor and TCU at home and Oklahoma at a neutral site, making it a clear Big 12 title contender this year, even though it will be under the radar. Texas is my most improved team in the country.
[h=2]5. Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h][h=2][/h]
I can make some great points for Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys are coming off a 10-3 season, have the most returning starters in the Big 12 and are the sixth-most experienced team in the country, according to my ratings. I think the Cowboys will still have a solid year, but they were just plus-10.9 yards per game differential in Big 12 play last year (sixth-best in the league), were plus-13 in turnovers and had four net close wins last year, plus they have five Big 12 road games including Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Kansas State.
[h=2]6. Kansas State Wildcats[/h][h=2][/h]
It's a yearly routine: If you add up all of the individual players on Kansas State's roster and project a record, you can bet that Bill Snyder will have the Wildcats finish a game or two ahead of that projection, as he makes the team better than the sum of its parts. This year he has 12 returning starters, and I think has a much improved offensive backfield, plus they get the addition of JUCO WR Byron Pringle, who was solid in the spring. As long as Snyder does his normal outstanding job with an inexperienced O-line, K-State should be more potent and the defense has a good shot at finishing in the upper half of the Big 12. K-State was minus-153.6 yards per game differential in league play and finished with a 6-7 record, but the Wildcats make my most improved teams list. So I will call for their seventh straight bowl game.
[h=2]7. West Virginia Mountaineers[/h][h=2][/h]
The Mountaineers are 9-9 in Big 12 play the past two years, and four of those losses have been by seven points or less. The Mountaineers figure to be explosive on offense with eight returning starters but does lose seven starters from last year's outstanding defense (just 24.6 points per game allowed). They had the No. 2 defense in Big 12 play last year (412 yards per game). The Mountaineers have a schedule that could make them a title contender, as a team that finishes in the lower half gets three of the big boys at home in TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor. While the defense has just four returning starters, all 11 projected starters are upperclassmen.
[h=2]8. Texas Tech Red Raiders[/h]Two years ago, facing a similar schedule, Texas Tech went just 4-8. But that year, the Red Raiders were plagued by poor QB play and this
Two years ago, facing a similar schedule, Texas Tech went just 4-8. But that year, the Red Raiders were plagued by poor QB play and this
ESpn insider
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.Sure, Oklahoma has emerged as the near-consensus Big 12 favorite for 2016. But after the Sooners? Good luck finding any agreement on who will finish where in what could be a wild conference season.
Here's a complete breakdown of how things project in the Big 12.
[h=2][/h][h=2]1. Oklahoma Sooners[/h][h=2][/h]
Once Oklahoma lost to Texas last year, the Sooners dominated the Big 12 -- in the final seven regular-season games, they averaged 299.9 yards per game rushing and 293 yards per game passing -- and that included facing No. 4 Baylor, No. 11 TCU and No. 9 Oklahoma State. The past four times the Sooners have been ranked in the preseason top five, they have not finished higher than No. 15 in the AP poll. Meanwhile, in the three years they've not been in the preseason AP Top 10, they have a national title, a playoff berth and a No. 6 AP finish. The Sooners have my No. 1-rated defense and were plus-192.2 in yards per game differential in Big 12 play last season.
[h=2]2. TCU Horned Frogs[/h][h=2][/h]
A quick glance at TCU shows just 11 returning starters, but the Horned Frogs are much more experienced than the three returning starters on offense. TCU has my No. 2-rated defense in the Big 12 and is one of my top surprise teams in the country. The Horned Frogs are a clear Big 12 and national title contender.
[h=2]3. Baylor Bears[/h][h=2][/h]
The Bears are strong in almost every area except the one that I consider highly, and that is line play. Baylor has just one starter back among the offensive and defensive lines combined. The Bears are loaded with skill players on offense and in the back seven on defense. They should have the most explosive offense in the country once again. Their toughest test is a road trip to Norman on Nov. 12, but the last time the Bears were there, they passed that test by a 48-14 margin. Baylor is still a Big 12 contender even after replacing Art Briles with Jim Grobe.
[h=2]4. Texas Longhorns[/h][h=2][/h]
Texas' offense may make the same type of improvement that TCU's did in 2014. Not only are the Longhorns shifting to the veer-and-shoot offense, but they get an upgrade at quarterback and running back and have seven offensive starters back. The defense has eight starters back and figures to be stronger after taking a step back in 2015. Texas gets Baylor and TCU at home and Oklahoma at a neutral site, making it a clear Big 12 title contender this year, even though it will be under the radar. Texas is my most improved team in the country.
[h=2]5. Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h][h=2][/h]
I can make some great points for Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys are coming off a 10-3 season, have the most returning starters in the Big 12 and are the sixth-most experienced team in the country, according to my ratings. I think the Cowboys will still have a solid year, but they were just plus-10.9 yards per game differential in Big 12 play last year (sixth-best in the league), were plus-13 in turnovers and had four net close wins last year, plus they have five Big 12 road games including Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Kansas State.
[h=2]6. Kansas State Wildcats[/h][h=2][/h]
It's a yearly routine: If you add up all of the individual players on Kansas State's roster and project a record, you can bet that Bill Snyder will have the Wildcats finish a game or two ahead of that projection, as he makes the team better than the sum of its parts. This year he has 12 returning starters, and I think has a much improved offensive backfield, plus they get the addition of JUCO WR Byron Pringle, who was solid in the spring. As long as Snyder does his normal outstanding job with an inexperienced O-line, K-State should be more potent and the defense has a good shot at finishing in the upper half of the Big 12. K-State was minus-153.6 yards per game differential in league play and finished with a 6-7 record, but the Wildcats make my most improved teams list. So I will call for their seventh straight bowl game.
[h=2]7. West Virginia Mountaineers[/h][h=2][/h]
The Mountaineers are 9-9 in Big 12 play the past two years, and four of those losses have been by seven points or less. The Mountaineers figure to be explosive on offense with eight returning starters but does lose seven starters from last year's outstanding defense (just 24.6 points per game allowed). They had the No. 2 defense in Big 12 play last year (412 yards per game). The Mountaineers have a schedule that could make them a title contender, as a team that finishes in the lower half gets three of the big boys at home in TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor. While the defense has just four returning starters, all 11 projected starters are upperclassmen.
[h=2]8. Texas Tech Red Raiders[/h]Two years ago, facing a similar schedule, Texas Tech went just 4-8. But that year, the Red Raiders were plagued by poor QB play and this
Two years ago, facing a similar schedule, Texas Tech went just 4-8. But that year, the Red Raiders were plagued by poor QB play and this
