[h=1]Best Week 1 college football bets[/h]Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games and highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Alabama vs. USC, Oklahoma vs. Houston and Notre Dame vs. Texas.
[h=2]Thursday[/h]
[h=2]Charlotte 49ers (+39.5) at No. 19 Louisville Cardinals[/h]7 p.m.
Louisville is coming off a great bowl game in which quarterback Lamar Jackson looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate, with 227 yards passing and another 226 yards rushing. Charlotte faced just one Power 5 team last year, losing 58-10 to Kentucky. The knee-jerk reaction is <offer style="color: rgb(72, 73, 74); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">to call for a blowout, but I actually like the underdog here.</offer>Charlotte has added Miami transfer Kevin Olsen and true freshman running back Robert Washington, who was offered the famed No. 44 jersey at Syracuse. They also return underrated wide receiver Austin Duke and overall are the most experienced team in the country. Louisville has bigger fish to fry on deck with its ACC opener next week, followed up by Florida State.
ATS pick: Charlotte
Score: Louisville 49, Charlotte 20
[h=2]Saturday[/h]
[h=2]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-11) vs No. 20USC Trojans[/h]8 p.m., ABC
This is a great matchup between two of the most storied programs in NCAA history. USC is a very talented team with its running backs, receivers, offensive line and defensive backs all ranking in my top eight units in the country. The biggest question marks are on the defensive line and special teams. Alabama has the best defense in the country and the best set of receivers to go along with my No. 4 rated offensive line and No. 10 special teams unit.
Nick Saban is 4-0 in these marquee season openers, winning by 20 points per game. While I am a Clay Helton fan, Saban has a large edge in big-game experience and success. With the offenses being close, I will take the team with the better defense, special teams and coaching.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 35, USC 20
[h=2]No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-10.5) at No. 15Houston Cougars[/h]Noon, ABC
Tom Herman is probably near the top of every athletic director's list of coaches to hire. He has a Heisman contender at quarterback in Greg Ward Jr and did a remarkable job in his first year taking a Houston team with just 11 returning starters from an 8-5 squad to 13-1 and No. 8 in the final poll. Their two biggest wins did come against teams that were not playing their best. Their win over Louisville was sandwiched between the Cardinals' matchups with Auburn and Clemson, and Florida State appeared unmotivated for the bowl game.
Oklahoma is a rare team that ranks in my top 10 in all four areas, which are offense, defense, special teams and coaching. Oklahoma fans should make up a decent portion of the crowd. Last year, Houston was plus-100 yards per game in differential versus the No. 112 schedule in terms of difficulty. Oklahoma was plus-166 yards per game versus the No. 20 schedule and has 13 returning starters.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 41, Houston 24
[h=2]No. 5 LSU Tigers (-10) at Wisconsin Badgers (Lambeau Field)[/h]3:30 p.m., ABC
LSU has my No. 2 defense in the country. On offense the Tigers have running back Leonard Fournette, a pair of NFL-caliber wide receivers in Malachi Dupreand Travin Dural, and my No. 5 offensive line in the country. I expect quarterback Brandon Harris to be vastly improved. Wisconsin had an atypical year in 2015, rushing for just 150 yards per game and averaging 3.8 yards per carry, despite facing the No. 87 schedule overall. The Badgers were outgained by Alabama 502-268 in their only game against a team rated above No. 20 last year. They have just 12 returning starters and break in a new quarterback.
The clincher is that Wisconsin's super defensive coordinator, Dave Aranda, is now on the LSU sideline and has complete knowledge of the Badger players' strengths and weaknesses.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 30, Wisconsin 16
[h=2]No. 16 UCLA Bruins (+3) at Texas A&M Aggies[/h]3:30 p.m., CBS
This is a key game for bragging rights between the SEC and the Pac 12. Last year, an unranked A&M destroyed No. 15 Arizona State 38-17. The Aggies have their best defense of the Sumlin era, with their defensive line and secondary among the best in the country. UCLA had a defense that was decimated by injuries last year, losing all of its top guys and allowed 402 yards per game. This year the Bruins not only have nine returning starters on defense, but also get back some of the injured players, including defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes. The Bruins will have one of the most improved defenses in the country.
UCLA returns just four starters on offense, but one is quarterback Josh Rosen. Texas A&M has a young offensive line and a new quarterback. The total is 53.5, and that is based more on reputation and last year's results than on the reality of two teams.
Over/under pick: Under 53.5
Score: UCLA 20, Texas A&M 17
[h=2]BYU Cougars (+1.5) at Arizona Wildcats(University of Phoenix Stadium)[/h]10:30 p.m., FS1
This game is being played at University of Phoenix Stadium, the home of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals. Both teams had quarterback battles, with the Cougars settling on Taysom Hill and with the Wildcats' Anu Solomon trying to hold onto his starting job over Brandon Dawkins.
Arizona still has a slight edge on offense, but BYU has a larger edge on defense and special teams. BYU has a decent advantage size wise with its offensive line versus the Wildcats' defensive line. This is almost a must-win for BYU, which has a rough schedule on deck, and this might be the most winnable of the first eight games.
ATS pick: BYU
Score: BYU 37, Arizona 31
[h=2]Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+41) at No. 7Michigan Wolverines[/h]Noon, FS1
Michigan was the most talked-about team in the summer, and Jim Harbaugh has a reputation for putting the hammer down. Defensive coordinator Don Brown will blitz on almost every play. Hawaii just played in Australia and made the long trip back to Hawaii ... and now it travels across the country to Michigan. This game is being played at 6 a.m. Hawaii time.
Everyone will be on Michigan here, and the line has climbed to 41. I will go against the grain and call for Hawaii to beat the blitz a few times. The biggest improvement a team makes is between Weeks 1 and 2, and Hawaii probably does not have a set body clock after playing in Australia.
ATS pick: Hawaii
Score: Michigan 47, Hawaii 13
[h=2]Sunday[/h][h=2]No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas Longhorns (+4)[/h]7:30 p.m., ABC
Texas is my most improved team in the country, and that team has accumulated a spread record of 28-11-1 the last three years, so expect the Longhorns to be among my best bets, and often this year.
The Longhorns will be vastly improved on both sides of the ball, and they will be fully motivated after last year's embarrassing 38-3 loss in South Bend. Notre Dame has just eight returning starters and is No. 121 in my experience rankings, and this is by far Charlie Strong's most talented and experienced team.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 30, Notre Dame 28
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games and highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Alabama vs. USC, Oklahoma vs. Houston and Notre Dame vs. Texas.
[h=2]Thursday[/h]
Louisville is coming off a great bowl game in which quarterback Lamar Jackson looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate, with 227 yards passing and another 226 yards rushing. Charlotte faced just one Power 5 team last year, losing 58-10 to Kentucky. The knee-jerk reaction is <offer style="color: rgb(72, 73, 74); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; box-sizing: border-box;">to call for a blowout, but I actually like the underdog here.</offer>Charlotte has added Miami transfer Kevin Olsen and true freshman running back Robert Washington, who was offered the famed No. 44 jersey at Syracuse. They also return underrated wide receiver Austin Duke and overall are the most experienced team in the country. Louisville has bigger fish to fry on deck with its ACC opener next week, followed up by Florida State.
ATS pick: Charlotte
Score: Louisville 49, Charlotte 20
[h=2]Saturday[/h]
This is a great matchup between two of the most storied programs in NCAA history. USC is a very talented team with its running backs, receivers, offensive line and defensive backs all ranking in my top eight units in the country. The biggest question marks are on the defensive line and special teams. Alabama has the best defense in the country and the best set of receivers to go along with my No. 4 rated offensive line and No. 10 special teams unit.
Nick Saban is 4-0 in these marquee season openers, winning by 20 points per game. While I am a Clay Helton fan, Saban has a large edge in big-game experience and success. With the offenses being close, I will take the team with the better defense, special teams and coaching.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 35, USC 20
Tom Herman is probably near the top of every athletic director's list of coaches to hire. He has a Heisman contender at quarterback in Greg Ward Jr and did a remarkable job in his first year taking a Houston team with just 11 returning starters from an 8-5 squad to 13-1 and No. 8 in the final poll. Their two biggest wins did come against teams that were not playing their best. Their win over Louisville was sandwiched between the Cardinals' matchups with Auburn and Clemson, and Florida State appeared unmotivated for the bowl game.
Oklahoma is a rare team that ranks in my top 10 in all four areas, which are offense, defense, special teams and coaching. Oklahoma fans should make up a decent portion of the crowd. Last year, Houston was plus-100 yards per game in differential versus the No. 112 schedule in terms of difficulty. Oklahoma was plus-166 yards per game versus the No. 20 schedule and has 13 returning starters.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 41, Houston 24
LSU has my No. 2 defense in the country. On offense the Tigers have running back Leonard Fournette, a pair of NFL-caliber wide receivers in Malachi Dupreand Travin Dural, and my No. 5 offensive line in the country. I expect quarterback Brandon Harris to be vastly improved. Wisconsin had an atypical year in 2015, rushing for just 150 yards per game and averaging 3.8 yards per carry, despite facing the No. 87 schedule overall. The Badgers were outgained by Alabama 502-268 in their only game against a team rated above No. 20 last year. They have just 12 returning starters and break in a new quarterback.
The clincher is that Wisconsin's super defensive coordinator, Dave Aranda, is now on the LSU sideline and has complete knowledge of the Badger players' strengths and weaknesses.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 30, Wisconsin 16
This is a key game for bragging rights between the SEC and the Pac 12. Last year, an unranked A&M destroyed No. 15 Arizona State 38-17. The Aggies have their best defense of the Sumlin era, with their defensive line and secondary among the best in the country. UCLA had a defense that was decimated by injuries last year, losing all of its top guys and allowed 402 yards per game. This year the Bruins not only have nine returning starters on defense, but also get back some of the injured players, including defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes. The Bruins will have one of the most improved defenses in the country.
UCLA returns just four starters on offense, but one is quarterback Josh Rosen. Texas A&M has a young offensive line and a new quarterback. The total is 53.5, and that is based more on reputation and last year's results than on the reality of two teams.
Over/under pick: Under 53.5
Score: UCLA 20, Texas A&M 17
This game is being played at University of Phoenix Stadium, the home of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals. Both teams had quarterback battles, with the Cougars settling on Taysom Hill and with the Wildcats' Anu Solomon trying to hold onto his starting job over Brandon Dawkins.
Arizona still has a slight edge on offense, but BYU has a larger edge on defense and special teams. BYU has a decent advantage size wise with its offensive line versus the Wildcats' defensive line. This is almost a must-win for BYU, which has a rough schedule on deck, and this might be the most winnable of the first eight games.
ATS pick: BYU
Score: BYU 37, Arizona 31
Michigan was the most talked-about team in the summer, and Jim Harbaugh has a reputation for putting the hammer down. Defensive coordinator Don Brown will blitz on almost every play. Hawaii just played in Australia and made the long trip back to Hawaii ... and now it travels across the country to Michigan. This game is being played at 6 a.m. Hawaii time.
Everyone will be on Michigan here, and the line has climbed to 41. I will go against the grain and call for Hawaii to beat the blitz a few times. The biggest improvement a team makes is between Weeks 1 and 2, and Hawaii probably does not have a set body clock after playing in Australia.
ATS pick: Hawaii
Score: Michigan 47, Hawaii 13
[h=2]Sunday[/h][h=2]No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas Longhorns (+4)[/h]7:30 p.m., ABC
Texas is my most improved team in the country, and that team has accumulated a spread record of 28-11-1 the last three years, so expect the Longhorns to be among my best bets, and often this year.
The Longhorns will be vastly improved on both sides of the ball, and they will be fully motivated after last year's embarrassing 38-3 loss in South Bend. Notre Dame has just eight returning starters and is No. 121 in my experience rankings, and this is by far Charlie Strong's most talented and experienced team.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 30, Notre Dame 28
