[h=1]My 10 best Week 6 college football ATS bets[/h]Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first five weeks, my selections have now gone 41-9 (82 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 28-21-1 (58 percent) against the spread (ATS).
So far this year there have been 15 meetings between ranked teams. The higher-rated team is 10-5 SU (2-3 last week) but the 'dog is 8-7 ATS in those matchups. This week there are only two games between ranked teams.
Here are my 10 best bets for Week 6 in college football:
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5)[/h]3:30 PM ET, ABC
While neither team is in the top 25, this is a key game in determining the Big Ten West title, as both teams are very much alive. Each was upset last week, with Nebraska suffering its third loss in the final seconds of a game (or in overtime). The Cornhuskers were outgained by Illinois 292-382 but did lead 13-0 in the fourth quarter.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wisconsin lost to Iowa at home last week but had a solid 21-14 first down edge and 320-221 yard advantage. The Badgers lost due to being minus-four in the turnover category. Nebraska does have the home and offensive edges in this game, especially since Wisconsin will be likely without WR Alex Erickson and TEAustin Traylor. The Badgers do have the defensive edge as they are allowing just 298 yards per game and are led by LB Joe Schobert, who had three sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss last week. I feel Wisconsin is the stronger team and capable of winning on the road.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 21, Nebraska 17
[h=2]South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 7 LSU Tigers (-18.5)[/h]3:00 p.m. ET
I had LSU typed in as one of my plays before the shift in venue, and I'm still going to roll with the Tigers here. South Carolina is dealing with a lot of chaos back home and now must go on an unexpected road trip. LSU gets to stay in the comfortable confines of Tiger Stadium and now plays five SEC home games. South Carolina has a struggling rush defense that is allowing 206 yards per game on the ground (5.5 yards per carry versus Power 5 conference teams) and now faces Leonard Fournette.
Last week, I had Eastern Michigan when it was catching LSU in a flat spot. This week, LSU will be in full force at home with Steve Spurrier coming to town. The Tigers have already beaten Auburn at this site 42-21, and they led that game 24-0 at the half. South Carolina has failed to top 300 yards of offense its last two SEC games and was already pounded by Georgia on the road 52-20. Spurrier will likely be going for it on fourth down as he did often against Auburn last year in a game where he was a three-TD 'dog. The Gamecocks converted almost every time in that game, but this time will be stopped, which will give LSU a short field and turn it into a romp.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 38, South Carolina 13
[h=2]No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+7) atWest Virginia Mountaineers[/h]7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
All the Big 12 talk is about Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma, and this game is a key battle between two teams hoping to enter that mix. Oklahoma State is 5-0 this year but has not been as impressive as I thought it would be. The Cowboys have outgained their foes by 172 yards per game, including a 490-351 yard edge versus a solid Kansas State team last week.
I went against the Mountaineers in this piece last week, and the Oklahoma Sooners rolled over them in a 44-24 win in Norman. West Virginia does have its best defense yet under Holgorson, but its three impressive wins to open the year each gave the team advantages that aren't repeated here. The Mountaineers had the entire month to prep for Georgia Southern's triple option, and were facing their backup quarterback; Liberty is an FCS school; and Maryland is much weaker than last year's bowl squad and has not found a productive quarterback. I'm calling for Oklahoma State to pull the upset win on the road.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 28, West Virginia 27
[h=2]Duke Blue Devils (-12) at Army Black Knights[/h]12:00 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports
The Blue Devils are 4-1 and just on the outskirts of the rankings at No. 27, but could climb into the top 25 this coming week. Duke's offense opened the year strong, gaining 593 yards per game and scoring 46 points per game in its first two contests. The Blue Devils have faced a pair of top-10 defenses the last three weeks in Northwestern and Boston College, plus an underrated Georgia Tech defense; they have been held to 278 yards per game in those contests. Now they take on my No. 106-ranked defense and should return to that early-season form.
Duke's defense has been solid this year, holding foes to 112 yards below their season average. Just two weeks ago, the Blue Devils faced the Georgia Tech option and held that unit to just 316 total yards. Getting to face the option twice in three weeks is a nice advantage. The clincher is that Army may be facing its toughest opponent of the year to date while Duke is playing one of its easiest.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 34, Army 14
[h=2]No. 19 Georgia Bulldogs (-3) at Tennessee Volunteers[/h]3:30 PM ET, CBS
This was thought to be the showdown for the SEC East title, but both teams now find themselves chasing Florida. Last week, Arkansas came in averaging just 186 rushing yards per game (low for them) but powered their way to 275 rushing yards against the young Volunteers defense. Georgia has one of the top offensive line and running back units in the country and last week rushed for 193 yards versus Alabama's vaunted veteran defensive front seven.
Tennessee has faced the tougher schedule, but Georgia has the defensive edge, allowing just 294 yards per game while Tennessee allows 414. This reminds me of 2012, when Georgia was ranked No. 5 and was trounced by South Carolina, 35-7, in Week 6. The Bulldogs bounced back and won out, getting to the SEC title game, and then nearly upset Alabama. I'm projecting Georgia to win out again, and it takes the first step here by winning on the road with the stronger team.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Tennessee 27
[h=2]Navy Midshipmen at No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, NBC
The Irish have struggled versus Navy, with the Middies gaining 419 and 454 yards versus the Notre Dame defense and scoring 34 and 39 points the last two years. And this year, Notre Dame is in a large Clemson/USC sandwich. Navy is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to South Bend. That's why Notre Dame is just a 14.5-point favorite.
I like the Irish here. Notre Dame is coming off a loss in which it actually outgained Clemson 437-296 but were minus-three in turnovers. Navy, meanwhile, was plus-four in turnovers in its 22-point win over Air Force. Watching the Georgia Tech game a few weeks back, it was clear Notre Dame spent a lot of time working on defending the option in the offseason and the Fighting Irish led the Yellow Jackets 30-7 before allowing two touchdowns in the last minute. Notre Dame has taken on my sixth-toughest schedule, while Navy has taken on my 109th-toughest slate.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 16
[h=2]New Mexico State Aggies at No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels (-43.5)[/h]12:00 Noon ET, SEC Network
This seems like a large number to lay, but there are numerous factors pointing to a blowout. Ole Miss comes in not only off a loss, but also off a game it lost by four touchdowns as a touchdown favorite. New Mexico State just played a tight game against rival New Mexico and has almost its full conference schedule still to come.
New Mexico State needs some wins this year, and coach Doug Martin uses these paycheck games as throwaways. In his three years, they have been a five-touchdown 'dog versus a Power 5 conference team on four different occasions. The Aggies have lost to Texas by 49, UCLA by 46, LSU by 56 and Florida by 48. Their offense is limited to running back Larry Rose, who has 589 yards and averages 8.3 yards per carry. I would expect limited carries from him as they have winnable games versus Troy and Idaho at home in the next three weeks and Martin needs wins to keep his job.
Finally, the Rebels have been held to just 37 total points the last two games. In the two nonconference games they have played this year, they have scored 76 and 73 points. They need some confidence on offense and have another nonconference game on deck.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 64, New Mexico State 13
[h=2]No. 3 Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks(+44)[/h]12:00 PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Here is a great tip for you: Play against every team in the AP top 12 on a weekly basis if they are not taking on a top 20-ranked foe. If you did that ATS, you would be 34-12 ATS on the year right now! In the last three weeks, you would be 21-5 ATS because Vegas keeps putting a premium number on these top-12 teams, as they are public plays.
Last week, I had Eastern Michigan in this spot versus LSU, and the Eagles covered by 23. Baylor has the most explosive offense in the country and takes on a Kansas team that has generated three touchdowns the last two weeks facing Iowa State and Rutgers. Kansas is also without its top two quarterbacks due to injury. I like true freshman quarterback Ryan Willis, and he may just become a four-year starter and give them an upgrade at the position as he was recruited for their offense. Coach Art Briles has had 41 regular-season games away from home in his eight years and only twice has he won a road game by more than 35. Baylor is also off a big game against Texas Tech and has a revenge match versus West Virginia on deck.
ATS pick: Kansas
Score: Baylor 55, Kansas 19
[h=2]No. 13 Northwestern Wildcats at No. 18Michigan Wolverines (-8)[/h]3:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network
Michigan won last year's meeting between these teams by a final score of 10-9, with Northwestern having a slim 264-256 yard edge. Last year, Northwestern allowed foes 20 yards per game over their season average, but this year they are allowing 156 yards less than their opponent's season averages and just seven points per game total. Michigan had a top-10 defense last year and is even stronger this year, holding foes to 232 yards per game below their season average and just 184 yards per game total.
One of my nine sets of power ratings calls for a 6-3 final score. I like Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson, who can run and pass, as he is an upgrade at that spot over last year. This figures to be a tight, low-scoring game, and an upset is very possible. Michigan not only has to win this game, they also have to outscore the Wildcats by over a touchdown. I am taking the defensive 'dog here.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Michigan 13, Northwestern 10
[h=2]No. 11 Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers(+5.5)[/h]7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
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</article>This is a tough spot for Florida. While the Gators gain confidence every week, I have to wonder how much they have left in the tank. They beat East Carolina at home by a touchdown. They then got past Kentucky on the road by 5, with the Wildcats dropping a couple of TD passes. Tennessee had the Gators beat 27-14, but the Gators got the huge and unlikely comeback to move to 4-0. Last week, they were sky-high as a home 'dog in the Swamp facing the No. 3 team in the country and won 38-10. Now they have a huge game versus LSU on deck and this is just their second trip to Missouri, with a 36-17 loss here in 2013.
Who will win the SEC East this year? Missouri's chances were thrown out the window when it lost to Kentucky, but the Tigers have just one SEC loss and likely control their own destiny. Their defense is allowing just 264 yards per game, and the offense looks stronger with frosh QB Drew Lock. RB Russell Hansbroughshould continue to improve in his third week back. This figures to be a low-scoring game, and Missouri has the home and special teams edges.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 17, Florida 16
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ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first five weeks, my selections have now gone 41-9 (82 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 28-21-1 (58 percent) against the spread (ATS).
So far this year there have been 15 meetings between ranked teams. The higher-rated team is 10-5 SU (2-3 last week) but the 'dog is 8-7 ATS in those matchups. This week there are only two games between ranked teams.
Here are my 10 best bets for Week 6 in college football:
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5)[/h]3:30 PM ET, ABC
While neither team is in the top 25, this is a key game in determining the Big Ten West title, as both teams are very much alive. Each was upset last week, with Nebraska suffering its third loss in the final seconds of a game (or in overtime). The Cornhuskers were outgained by Illinois 292-382 but did lead 13-0 in the fourth quarter.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wisconsin lost to Iowa at home last week but had a solid 21-14 first down edge and 320-221 yard advantage. The Badgers lost due to being minus-four in the turnover category. Nebraska does have the home and offensive edges in this game, especially since Wisconsin will be likely without WR Alex Erickson and TEAustin Traylor. The Badgers do have the defensive edge as they are allowing just 298 yards per game and are led by LB Joe Schobert, who had three sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss last week. I feel Wisconsin is the stronger team and capable of winning on the road.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 21, Nebraska 17
[h=2]South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 7 LSU Tigers (-18.5)[/h]3:00 p.m. ET
I had LSU typed in as one of my plays before the shift in venue, and I'm still going to roll with the Tigers here. South Carolina is dealing with a lot of chaos back home and now must go on an unexpected road trip. LSU gets to stay in the comfortable confines of Tiger Stadium and now plays five SEC home games. South Carolina has a struggling rush defense that is allowing 206 yards per game on the ground (5.5 yards per carry versus Power 5 conference teams) and now faces Leonard Fournette.
Last week, I had Eastern Michigan when it was catching LSU in a flat spot. This week, LSU will be in full force at home with Steve Spurrier coming to town. The Tigers have already beaten Auburn at this site 42-21, and they led that game 24-0 at the half. South Carolina has failed to top 300 yards of offense its last two SEC games and was already pounded by Georgia on the road 52-20. Spurrier will likely be going for it on fourth down as he did often against Auburn last year in a game where he was a three-TD 'dog. The Gamecocks converted almost every time in that game, but this time will be stopped, which will give LSU a short field and turn it into a romp.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 38, South Carolina 13
[h=2]No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+7) atWest Virginia Mountaineers[/h]7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
All the Big 12 talk is about Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma, and this game is a key battle between two teams hoping to enter that mix. Oklahoma State is 5-0 this year but has not been as impressive as I thought it would be. The Cowboys have outgained their foes by 172 yards per game, including a 490-351 yard edge versus a solid Kansas State team last week.
I went against the Mountaineers in this piece last week, and the Oklahoma Sooners rolled over them in a 44-24 win in Norman. West Virginia does have its best defense yet under Holgorson, but its three impressive wins to open the year each gave the team advantages that aren't repeated here. The Mountaineers had the entire month to prep for Georgia Southern's triple option, and were facing their backup quarterback; Liberty is an FCS school; and Maryland is much weaker than last year's bowl squad and has not found a productive quarterback. I'm calling for Oklahoma State to pull the upset win on the road.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 28, West Virginia 27
[h=2]Duke Blue Devils (-12) at Army Black Knights[/h]12:00 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports
The Blue Devils are 4-1 and just on the outskirts of the rankings at No. 27, but could climb into the top 25 this coming week. Duke's offense opened the year strong, gaining 593 yards per game and scoring 46 points per game in its first two contests. The Blue Devils have faced a pair of top-10 defenses the last three weeks in Northwestern and Boston College, plus an underrated Georgia Tech defense; they have been held to 278 yards per game in those contests. Now they take on my No. 106-ranked defense and should return to that early-season form.
Duke's defense has been solid this year, holding foes to 112 yards below their season average. Just two weeks ago, the Blue Devils faced the Georgia Tech option and held that unit to just 316 total yards. Getting to face the option twice in three weeks is a nice advantage. The clincher is that Army may be facing its toughest opponent of the year to date while Duke is playing one of its easiest.
ATS pick: Duke
Score: Duke 34, Army 14
[h=2]No. 19 Georgia Bulldogs (-3) at Tennessee Volunteers[/h]3:30 PM ET, CBS
This was thought to be the showdown for the SEC East title, but both teams now find themselves chasing Florida. Last week, Arkansas came in averaging just 186 rushing yards per game (low for them) but powered their way to 275 rushing yards against the young Volunteers defense. Georgia has one of the top offensive line and running back units in the country and last week rushed for 193 yards versus Alabama's vaunted veteran defensive front seven.
Tennessee has faced the tougher schedule, but Georgia has the defensive edge, allowing just 294 yards per game while Tennessee allows 414. This reminds me of 2012, when Georgia was ranked No. 5 and was trounced by South Carolina, 35-7, in Week 6. The Bulldogs bounced back and won out, getting to the SEC title game, and then nearly upset Alabama. I'm projecting Georgia to win out again, and it takes the first step here by winning on the road with the stronger team.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Tennessee 27
[h=2]Navy Midshipmen at No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14.5)[/h]3:30 p.m. ET, NBC
The Irish have struggled versus Navy, with the Middies gaining 419 and 454 yards versus the Notre Dame defense and scoring 34 and 39 points the last two years. And this year, Notre Dame is in a large Clemson/USC sandwich. Navy is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to South Bend. That's why Notre Dame is just a 14.5-point favorite.
I like the Irish here. Notre Dame is coming off a loss in which it actually outgained Clemson 437-296 but were minus-three in turnovers. Navy, meanwhile, was plus-four in turnovers in its 22-point win over Air Force. Watching the Georgia Tech game a few weeks back, it was clear Notre Dame spent a lot of time working on defending the option in the offseason and the Fighting Irish led the Yellow Jackets 30-7 before allowing two touchdowns in the last minute. Notre Dame has taken on my sixth-toughest schedule, while Navy has taken on my 109th-toughest slate.
ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 16
[h=2]New Mexico State Aggies at No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels (-43.5)[/h]12:00 Noon ET, SEC Network
This seems like a large number to lay, but there are numerous factors pointing to a blowout. Ole Miss comes in not only off a loss, but also off a game it lost by four touchdowns as a touchdown favorite. New Mexico State just played a tight game against rival New Mexico and has almost its full conference schedule still to come.
New Mexico State needs some wins this year, and coach Doug Martin uses these paycheck games as throwaways. In his three years, they have been a five-touchdown 'dog versus a Power 5 conference team on four different occasions. The Aggies have lost to Texas by 49, UCLA by 46, LSU by 56 and Florida by 48. Their offense is limited to running back Larry Rose, who has 589 yards and averages 8.3 yards per carry. I would expect limited carries from him as they have winnable games versus Troy and Idaho at home in the next three weeks and Martin needs wins to keep his job.
Finally, the Rebels have been held to just 37 total points the last two games. In the two nonconference games they have played this year, they have scored 76 and 73 points. They need some confidence on offense and have another nonconference game on deck.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 64, New Mexico State 13
[h=2]No. 3 Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks(+44)[/h]12:00 PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Here is a great tip for you: Play against every team in the AP top 12 on a weekly basis if they are not taking on a top 20-ranked foe. If you did that ATS, you would be 34-12 ATS on the year right now! In the last three weeks, you would be 21-5 ATS because Vegas keeps putting a premium number on these top-12 teams, as they are public plays.
Last week, I had Eastern Michigan in this spot versus LSU, and the Eagles covered by 23. Baylor has the most explosive offense in the country and takes on a Kansas team that has generated three touchdowns the last two weeks facing Iowa State and Rutgers. Kansas is also without its top two quarterbacks due to injury. I like true freshman quarterback Ryan Willis, and he may just become a four-year starter and give them an upgrade at the position as he was recruited for their offense. Coach Art Briles has had 41 regular-season games away from home in his eight years and only twice has he won a road game by more than 35. Baylor is also off a big game against Texas Tech and has a revenge match versus West Virginia on deck.
ATS pick: Kansas
Score: Baylor 55, Kansas 19
[h=2]No. 13 Northwestern Wildcats at No. 18Michigan Wolverines (-8)[/h]3:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network
Michigan won last year's meeting between these teams by a final score of 10-9, with Northwestern having a slim 264-256 yard edge. Last year, Northwestern allowed foes 20 yards per game over their season average, but this year they are allowing 156 yards less than their opponent's season averages and just seven points per game total. Michigan had a top-10 defense last year and is even stronger this year, holding foes to 232 yards per game below their season average and just 184 yards per game total.
One of my nine sets of power ratings calls for a 6-3 final score. I like Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson, who can run and pass, as he is an upgrade at that spot over last year. This figures to be a tight, low-scoring game, and an upset is very possible. Michigan not only has to win this game, they also have to outscore the Wildcats by over a touchdown. I am taking the defensive 'dog here.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Michigan 13, Northwestern 10
[h=2]No. 11 Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers(+5.5)[/h]7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
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</article>This is a tough spot for Florida. While the Gators gain confidence every week, I have to wonder how much they have left in the tank. They beat East Carolina at home by a touchdown. They then got past Kentucky on the road by 5, with the Wildcats dropping a couple of TD passes. Tennessee had the Gators beat 27-14, but the Gators got the huge and unlikely comeback to move to 4-0. Last week, they were sky-high as a home 'dog in the Swamp facing the No. 3 team in the country and won 38-10. Now they have a huge game versus LSU on deck and this is just their second trip to Missouri, with a 36-17 loss here in 2013.
Who will win the SEC East this year? Missouri's chances were thrown out the window when it lost to Kentucky, but the Tigers have just one SEC loss and likely control their own destiny. Their defense is allowing just 264 yards per game, and the offense looks stronger with frosh QB Drew Lock. RB Russell Hansbroughshould continue to improve in his third week back. This figures to be a low-scoring game, and Missouri has the home and special teams edges.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 17, Florida 16
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