[h=1]My 10 best Week 4 college football ATS bets[/h]Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first three weeks, I've gone 26-4 (87 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners and 18-12 (60 percent) against the spread (ATS).
So far this year there have been eight meetings between ranked teams. The higher-ranked team is 7-1 SU but the underdog is 5-3 ATS in those matchups. This week there is only one matchup between ranked teams.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers(-1.5)[/h]This selection is based on backing a team that is in desperation mode.
I picked Auburn lower than most other analysts this year (third) in the SEC West, but the Tigers were the SEC media's pick to win the league overall. Now they are at home and have benched QB Jeremy Johnson, who was one of the top five preseason favorites to win the Heisman.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Mississippi State has looked strong; statistically, the Bulldogs have outgained their foes by 158 yards per game while Auburn is minus-113 yards per game. This has to be a circle-the-wagons game for Gus Malzahn, Will Muschamp & Co., and they are playing at home with a legitimate revenge factor in a must-win game.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 31, Mississippi State 24
[h=2]No. 25 Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats (-3)[/h]Missouri has struggled to get past Arkansas State and Connecticut as a large favorite this season. QB Maty Mauk has been inconsistent, completing just 53 percent of his passes. Kentucky has already knocked off South Carolina, almost beat Florida, and will have a large crowd behind it.
With that said, I still like the Tigers here. They have started slow the last couple of years but have won the games they have needed to win. They actually have the nation's longest road win streak at 11. Kentucky QB Patrick Towles is completing just 52 percent of his passes, and the Wildcats have been outgained in every game. Their defense is yielding 380 YPG, while Missouri's defense has given up just 217 YPG. Missouri RB Russell Hansbrough should return this week (only seven carries in the first three games). I will take the two-time defending SEC East champions to win outright as a 'dog.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 20, Kentucky 17
[h=2]Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at No. 22Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5)[/h]I am a little surprised this game is at night, as the Badgers usually save nighttime games for their toughest opponents. Hawaii is off to a 2-1 start this year, is optimistic about making a bowl, and is 2-0 ATS with covers versus Colorado and Ohio State. Hawaii QB Max Wittek, a transfer from USC, was my No. 8 QB out of high school. He has completed just 50 percent with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
While Hawaii covered at Ohio State, the Rainbow Warriors were catching the Buckeyes off a Monday night game and thus playing on a very short week the following Saturday. Hawaii still lost 38-0, and versus FBS teams is averaging just 13 first downs and 233 yards per game. Wisconsin is holding its opponents to 133 yards below their season average.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 38, Hawaii 6
[h=2]No. 19 USC Trojans (-5.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils[/h]I picked USC last week and the Trojans really disappointed me with that 41-31 home loss to Stanford. The good news is they have proved to be one of the best teams in the country after a loss the past two seasons, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, with their lone loss by a half-point.
Arizona State has been underwhelming this year, getting blown out by Texas A&M and then struggling at home versus a couple of overmatched foes. Last week the Trojans were mauled by one of the best offensive lines in the country, but this week they take on a rebuilt offensive line. USC's defense has to be in an angry mood, as its offense is gaining 220 yards more than its opponents are allowing on average in their other games. USC blew an 11-point lead and lost on a Hail Mary last year against ASU. There will be no such letup if the Trojans are up big this year.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 34, Arizona State 24
[h=2]No. 8 LSU Tigers (-24.5) at Syracuse Orange[/h]Normally, this would be a letdown spot for LSU, as they just won back-to-back revenge games versus Mississippi State and Auburn. The Tigers have only Eastern Michigan on deck, and after having their opener cancelled there are a lot of talented second- and third-stringers who will be excited for playing time in the second half.
Syracuse has one of the best statistical rush defenses in the country, but the Orange are allowing 469 yards per game to FBS foes. Versus Wake Forest and Central Michigan, they have allowed 402 yards per game through the air and 70 percent completions. That makes this the perfect game for Brandon Harris to work on his passing skills to prepare for future big SEC games. Syracuse lost starting QB Terrel Hunt in Week 1. Last week, solid replacement Eric Dungeywas injured in the second quarter. Syracuse had 285 yards at the half and just 41 yards in the second half, but won in OT without him. The Orange used their third- and fourth-string QBs during that time, and those guys must now face LSU's defense. I don't see that going well.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 38, Syracuse 6
[h=2]No. 9 UCLA Bruins (-3.5) at No. 16 Arizona Wildcats[/h]College GameDay will be on hand, so the home crowd will be at its best. Veteran Arizona QB Anu Solomon is completing 68 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. UCLA true freshman QB Josh Rosen had a huge first game but has thrown four interceptions the last two games and is hitting under 50 percent of his passes in those.
I still like the Bruins here. Arizona has taken on three creampuffs, and its defense is allowing opponents to gain 94 yards per game more than what they are averaging in all their other games. UCLA has my No. 11-rated defense while Arizona comes in at No. 79. UCLA is the more complete team and grabs the road win.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 35, Arizona 27
[h=2]Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at No. 12Alabama Crimson Tide (-38)[/h]Alabama is coming off a home loss to Ole Miss, and now the Tide play a ULM team that lost to Georgia 51-14 in the season opener -- and that game was shortened by 10 minutes due to bad weather. Believe it or not, Alabama has failed to cover its last four games off a straight-up loss. The Crimson Tide are also in a large sandwich situation here. They're coming off that titanic tussle versus Ole Miss, and they have a road game versus No. 7 Georgia on deck. ULM comes into this fresh off a bye and has played the big boys tough.
Last year ULM went on the road and almost upset Texas A&M, losing 21-16. The Warhawks have a gambling, blitzing defense with eight starters back. ULM allowed LSU only 31 points last year and yielded just 322 yards per game versus three SEC foes. Coach Todd Berry thinks he has his best team yet, and QBGarrett Smith is completing 79 percent of his passes with a 5-1 ratio.
ATS pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Score: Alabama 37, ULM 10
[h=2]Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels (-24.5)[/h]Ole Miss comes in averaging 64 points per game and just went to Alabama and hung 43 on the Tide. The Rebels now take on Vanderbilt, which is 0-2 versus FBS teams. Ole Miss went on the road and beat Vandy last year 41-3, with a 547-167 yardage edge.
However, I actually like the underdog here. Ole Miss is coming off a large upset win on the road, has skyrocketed up the polls from No. 15 to No. 3, and is in a sandwich game with a trip to the Swamp to face Florida (3-0) next week. Vanderbilt actually has one of the nation's most improved defenses this year, holding their FBS foes to 208 yards below their season average.
Georgia was not in a sandwich when it faced Vanderbilt in Week 2, and Vanderbilt was outgained only 422-400 and stayed within 17 points. Look for Vanderbilt to keep this closer than expected.
ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Ole Miss 41, Vanderbilt 20
[h=2]Massachusetts Minutemen at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-29)[/h]Sandwiches have been very tasty for the underdogs, and I am 3-0 in games involving the Irish this year. This week the Irish are coming off a big win over Georgia Tech; the defense did a masterful job of preparing and then stopping the option. Notre Dame was fueled by the fact it was a home underdog. Next week, the Fighting Irish have a huge road test at Clemson.
Massachusetts' first road game of the season was a big loss to Colorado; last week, UMass should have beaten Temple. UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel is solid (393 yards versus a good Temple defense); he gives the Minutemen backdoor potential. Also, the way Notre Dame's starters have been dropping like flies, Brian Kelly might have them in bubble wrap in the second half.
ATS pick: Massachusetts
Score: Notre Dame 41, Massachusetts 19
[h=2]Western Michigan Broncos at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-31.5)[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>I picked Ohio State last week in my column and they let me down -- and almost lost the game outright to MAC member Northern Illinois. Now the Buckeyes take on another strong MAC team. There is pressure to get the offense going after gaining just 363 and 298 yards the last two weeks. Western Michigan is allowing opponents 81 yards more than their season average, so it should come this week.
Ohio State's defense has been impenetrable, holding its three opponents to 277 yards below their season averages. While Western Michigan stayed close in a 37-24 loss to Michigan State earlier this season, it was a rare home game versus a Big Ten team. The Broncos were fired up and Michigan State led 34-10 in the third quarter, with Western Michigan's only score coming on a kick-return TD. Michigan State had a huge game on deck versus Oregon and started to look ahead. Ohio State has only Indiana on deck and won't be peeking ahead.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 48,Western Michigan 10
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first three weeks, I've gone 26-4 (87 percent) picking straight-up (SU) winners and 18-12 (60 percent) against the spread (ATS).
So far this year there have been eight meetings between ranked teams. The higher-ranked team is 7-1 SU but the underdog is 5-3 ATS in those matchups. This week there is only one matchup between ranked teams.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers(-1.5)[/h]This selection is based on backing a team that is in desperation mode.
I picked Auburn lower than most other analysts this year (third) in the SEC West, but the Tigers were the SEC media's pick to win the league overall. Now they are at home and have benched QB Jeremy Johnson, who was one of the top five preseason favorites to win the Heisman.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Mississippi State has looked strong; statistically, the Bulldogs have outgained their foes by 158 yards per game while Auburn is minus-113 yards per game. This has to be a circle-the-wagons game for Gus Malzahn, Will Muschamp & Co., and they are playing at home with a legitimate revenge factor in a must-win game.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 31, Mississippi State 24
[h=2]No. 25 Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats (-3)[/h]Missouri has struggled to get past Arkansas State and Connecticut as a large favorite this season. QB Maty Mauk has been inconsistent, completing just 53 percent of his passes. Kentucky has already knocked off South Carolina, almost beat Florida, and will have a large crowd behind it.
With that said, I still like the Tigers here. They have started slow the last couple of years but have won the games they have needed to win. They actually have the nation's longest road win streak at 11. Kentucky QB Patrick Towles is completing just 52 percent of his passes, and the Wildcats have been outgained in every game. Their defense is yielding 380 YPG, while Missouri's defense has given up just 217 YPG. Missouri RB Russell Hansbrough should return this week (only seven carries in the first three games). I will take the two-time defending SEC East champions to win outright as a 'dog.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 20, Kentucky 17
[h=2]Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at No. 22Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5)[/h]I am a little surprised this game is at night, as the Badgers usually save nighttime games for their toughest opponents. Hawaii is off to a 2-1 start this year, is optimistic about making a bowl, and is 2-0 ATS with covers versus Colorado and Ohio State. Hawaii QB Max Wittek, a transfer from USC, was my No. 8 QB out of high school. He has completed just 50 percent with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
While Hawaii covered at Ohio State, the Rainbow Warriors were catching the Buckeyes off a Monday night game and thus playing on a very short week the following Saturday. Hawaii still lost 38-0, and versus FBS teams is averaging just 13 first downs and 233 yards per game. Wisconsin is holding its opponents to 133 yards below their season average.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 38, Hawaii 6
[h=2]No. 19 USC Trojans (-5.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils[/h]I picked USC last week and the Trojans really disappointed me with that 41-31 home loss to Stanford. The good news is they have proved to be one of the best teams in the country after a loss the past two seasons, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, with their lone loss by a half-point.
Arizona State has been underwhelming this year, getting blown out by Texas A&M and then struggling at home versus a couple of overmatched foes. Last week the Trojans were mauled by one of the best offensive lines in the country, but this week they take on a rebuilt offensive line. USC's defense has to be in an angry mood, as its offense is gaining 220 yards more than its opponents are allowing on average in their other games. USC blew an 11-point lead and lost on a Hail Mary last year against ASU. There will be no such letup if the Trojans are up big this year.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 34, Arizona State 24
[h=2]No. 8 LSU Tigers (-24.5) at Syracuse Orange[/h]Normally, this would be a letdown spot for LSU, as they just won back-to-back revenge games versus Mississippi State and Auburn. The Tigers have only Eastern Michigan on deck, and after having their opener cancelled there are a lot of talented second- and third-stringers who will be excited for playing time in the second half.
Syracuse has one of the best statistical rush defenses in the country, but the Orange are allowing 469 yards per game to FBS foes. Versus Wake Forest and Central Michigan, they have allowed 402 yards per game through the air and 70 percent completions. That makes this the perfect game for Brandon Harris to work on his passing skills to prepare for future big SEC games. Syracuse lost starting QB Terrel Hunt in Week 1. Last week, solid replacement Eric Dungeywas injured in the second quarter. Syracuse had 285 yards at the half and just 41 yards in the second half, but won in OT without him. The Orange used their third- and fourth-string QBs during that time, and those guys must now face LSU's defense. I don't see that going well.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 38, Syracuse 6
[h=2]No. 9 UCLA Bruins (-3.5) at No. 16 Arizona Wildcats[/h]College GameDay will be on hand, so the home crowd will be at its best. Veteran Arizona QB Anu Solomon is completing 68 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. UCLA true freshman QB Josh Rosen had a huge first game but has thrown four interceptions the last two games and is hitting under 50 percent of his passes in those.
I still like the Bruins here. Arizona has taken on three creampuffs, and its defense is allowing opponents to gain 94 yards per game more than what they are averaging in all their other games. UCLA has my No. 11-rated defense while Arizona comes in at No. 79. UCLA is the more complete team and grabs the road win.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 35, Arizona 27
[h=2]Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at No. 12Alabama Crimson Tide (-38)[/h]Alabama is coming off a home loss to Ole Miss, and now the Tide play a ULM team that lost to Georgia 51-14 in the season opener -- and that game was shortened by 10 minutes due to bad weather. Believe it or not, Alabama has failed to cover its last four games off a straight-up loss. The Crimson Tide are also in a large sandwich situation here. They're coming off that titanic tussle versus Ole Miss, and they have a road game versus No. 7 Georgia on deck. ULM comes into this fresh off a bye and has played the big boys tough.
Last year ULM went on the road and almost upset Texas A&M, losing 21-16. The Warhawks have a gambling, blitzing defense with eight starters back. ULM allowed LSU only 31 points last year and yielded just 322 yards per game versus three SEC foes. Coach Todd Berry thinks he has his best team yet, and QBGarrett Smith is completing 79 percent of his passes with a 5-1 ratio.
ATS pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Score: Alabama 37, ULM 10
[h=2]Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels (-24.5)[/h]Ole Miss comes in averaging 64 points per game and just went to Alabama and hung 43 on the Tide. The Rebels now take on Vanderbilt, which is 0-2 versus FBS teams. Ole Miss went on the road and beat Vandy last year 41-3, with a 547-167 yardage edge.
However, I actually like the underdog here. Ole Miss is coming off a large upset win on the road, has skyrocketed up the polls from No. 15 to No. 3, and is in a sandwich game with a trip to the Swamp to face Florida (3-0) next week. Vanderbilt actually has one of the nation's most improved defenses this year, holding their FBS foes to 208 yards below their season average.
Georgia was not in a sandwich when it faced Vanderbilt in Week 2, and Vanderbilt was outgained only 422-400 and stayed within 17 points. Look for Vanderbilt to keep this closer than expected.
ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Ole Miss 41, Vanderbilt 20
[h=2]Massachusetts Minutemen at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-29)[/h]Sandwiches have been very tasty for the underdogs, and I am 3-0 in games involving the Irish this year. This week the Irish are coming off a big win over Georgia Tech; the defense did a masterful job of preparing and then stopping the option. Notre Dame was fueled by the fact it was a home underdog. Next week, the Fighting Irish have a huge road test at Clemson.
Massachusetts' first road game of the season was a big loss to Colorado; last week, UMass should have beaten Temple. UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel is solid (393 yards versus a good Temple defense); he gives the Minutemen backdoor potential. Also, the way Notre Dame's starters have been dropping like flies, Brian Kelly might have them in bubble wrap in the second half.
ATS pick: Massachusetts
Score: Notre Dame 41, Massachusetts 19
[h=2]Western Michigan Broncos at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-31.5)[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>I picked Ohio State last week in my column and they let me down -- and almost lost the game outright to MAC member Northern Illinois. Now the Buckeyes take on another strong MAC team. There is pressure to get the offense going after gaining just 363 and 298 yards the last two weeks. Western Michigan is allowing opponents 81 yards more than their season average, so it should come this week.
Ohio State's defense has been impenetrable, holding its three opponents to 277 yards below their season averages. While Western Michigan stayed close in a 37-24 loss to Michigan State earlier this season, it was a rare home game versus a Big Ten team. The Broncos were fired up and Michigan State led 34-10 in the third quarter, with Western Michigan's only score coming on a kick-return TD. Michigan State had a huge game on deck versus Oregon and started to look ahead. Ohio State has only Indiana on deck and won't be peeking ahead.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 48,Western Michigan 10
