[h=1]My best Week 12 college football ATS bets[/h]Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
In the first 11 weeks my selections have now gone 85-25 (77 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 59-49-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
[h=2]No. 12 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (+4.5)[/h]Noon ET, ABC
Michigan has barely survived its past two Big Ten road trips. The Wolverines were out-gained by Minnesota 461-296 and needed a goal-line stand to win by three. They needed a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass on the last play of regulation to force overtime and get past Indiana. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Penn State is stronger than both those teams, is fresh off a bye and playing its final home game. Not only is Michigan on a second straight road trip, but it has "The Game" on deck. Penn State has a top 15 defense, an NFL-caliber quarterback and will pull off the upset.</offer>
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 17, Michigan 16
[h=2]No. 15 LSU Tigers (+4.5) at No. 22 Ole Miss Rebels[/h]3:30 PM ET CBS
The situation favors Ole Miss, as the Rebels are fresh off a bye, while LSU has lost back-to-back games in which they were out-gained by a combined 874-512 and held to 54 and 59 yards rushing. LSU is 10-3 versus Ole Miss, with only one loss being by more than a field goal. The 'dog is 13-2 ATS in this series in the past 15 years and LSU is the higher-ranked team, getting over a field goal. Ole Miss has the edge at quarterback, but LSU has a larger edge at running back and also a defense that's allowing 46 fewer yards per game in SEC play. LSU's two-game losing streak will end with an upset win in Oxford.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 28, Ole Miss 27
[h=2]No. 24 USC Trojans (+4.5) at No. 23 Oregon Ducks[/h]3:30 PM ET, ESPN
The Ducks continue to surge now that Vernon Adams is healthy. They've knocked off Washington, Arizona State and Stanford on the road in their past four games. Oregon was out-gained by Arizona State by 241 yards, though, and needed a touchdown with eight seconds left to force overtime. Last week Stanford had a 32-18 first down edge, but Kevin Hogan fumbled two snaps in the fourth quarter and Stanford was stopped on the game-tying two-point conversion. USC hasn't played well as a large favorite, but in Pac-12 games where the spread has been under a touchdown, the Trojans show up motivated: They're a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS this season. USC is in the Pac 12 title game if they win out, and have the talent edge. The Trojans pulled the outright upset their last trip here in 2012 and will accomplish that feat again.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 38, Oregon 35
[h=2]No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats at No. 25Wisconsin Badgers (-10.5)[/h]3:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network
Both teams are 8-2, but I feel the Badgers are the stronger team on both sides of the ball, and are in a favorable situation. Wisconsin is fresh off a bye, which should allow Corey Clement back on the field. Both teams have solid defenses, but in Big Ten play Wisconsin allows 98 fewer yards per game (259 versus 357). Wisconsin is out-gaining their Big Ten foes by 134 yards per game and had a 320-221 yard edge on Iowa at home. Northwestern is actually being out-gained by 59 yards per game in league play. The home team is 11-1 straight up in the series and 10-1-1 ATS. Northwestern has not traveled since October 24th, but in that game was fortunate to beat Nebraska, as at one point it had a 10-1 first down deficit, but led 14-5. Wisconsin has allowed just 207 yards per game at home (369 on the road), while Northwestern's offense averages 380 yards per game at home, but just 257 on the road.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 7
[h=2]No. 10 Baylor Bears (PK) at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]7:15 PM ET, FOX
Oklahoma State is the last of the Big 12's unbeaten teams, but a one-loss Big 12 champ still has a great shot at the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State is playing with unbeaten pressure. The six unbeaten teams went 1-5 ATS last week with Baylor losing outright. Despite their unbeaten record, the 'Pokes are only plus-61 yards per game in conference play. While they beat a banged-up TCU 49-29 in their last home game, they were out-gained 663-456, benefiting from being plus four in turnovers. Baylor also has a large edge in running the football.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 38
[h=2]No. 9 Michigan State Spartans at No. 3Ohio State Buckeyes (-13)[/h]3:30 PM ET
If you are into angles, you will love the Spartans in this one. They are an outstanding 11-1 ATS as a 'dog, with seven outright wins. The visitor is 5-1 straight-up and 6-0 ATS in this series. This is the first ranked foe Ohio State has faced all year, while Michigan State has defeated two already. My computer loved Michigan over Michigan State, but I picked the Spartans to win outright, and they pulled the upset. While they needed a last-second miracle score, Michigan State did have a 386-230 yard edge.
Michigan State is just plus 42 yards per game and plus-10.6 points per game. Ohio State is plus-155 yards per game and plus-22.6 points per game. With those types of numbers, it is no wonder why Ohio State is almost a two-touchdown favorite. Ohio State has edges on offense, defense, special teams and is at home, while Connor Cook will probably not be 100 percent. Ohio State played its best ball at the end of last year in its biggest games and I give a slight lean to the favorite.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 28, Michigan State 13
[h=2]UCLA Bruins (+2) at No. 13 Utah Utes[/h]3:30 PM ET, FOX
Both teams lost last week, but UCLA still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South. UCLA has played well on the road. In fact, it is plus-203 yards per game away, while Utah is only plus-15 yards per game at home. UCLA is playing with revenge after a tough loss at home last year. UCLA's defense is banged up, but it has held all but two opponents below their season average. While Utah has slight edges on defense and special teams, UCLA is averaging over 500 yards per game in Pac-12 play. The early weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the 50s, so the California boys won't have to worry about snow.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 27, Utah 24
[h=2]Purdue Boilermakers (+22) at No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]12:00 ET, ESPN2
Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure, but doesn't need style points. If the Hawkeyes win out, they're in the playoff. As I mentioned earlier, unbeaten teams were 1-5 ATS last week. Iowa is solid, but not flashy and has eight wins over Power 5 teams by an average of 11 points per game. Only three of those eight teams, however, have a winning record. Iowa has to be concerned with its upcoming road trip to Nebraska. C.J. Beathard has not been 100 percent healthy, so don't expect him to be exposed much. Over his past three games, Purdue redshirt freshman quarterback David Blough has averaged 245 yards, completing 62 percent of his passes, with six TDs and three INTs. Purdue has faced three teams ranked by the committee, losing those by just an average of nine points per game.
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Iowa 35, Purdue 20
[h=2]Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers(+8.5)[/h]7:15 PM ET, ESPN2
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Gary Pinkel loves his players and the players showed how much they love him after their upset of BYU. Pinkel is stepping down due to health reasons and this is his last home game, at night in the Zoo. The Tigers have a trip to Arkansas on deck and have to win one of their final two games to get to a bowl. Home 'dogs with the better defense are usually a solid play. Despite Mizzou being just 5-5, its defense is holding opponents to 81 yards per game below their season average. The Tigers offense has been the reason for their poor record, but Russell Hansbrough, who's been banged up, had his first 100-yard effort last week. True freshman Drew Lock continues to improve and threw for 244 yards, completing 68 percent of his passes last week. Tennessee has won only one SEC game by more than a touchdown.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 17, Tennessee 16
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
In the first 11 weeks my selections have now gone 85-25 (77 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 59-49-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
[h=2]No. 12 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (+4.5)[/h]Noon ET, ABC
Michigan has barely survived its past two Big Ten road trips. The Wolverines were out-gained by Minnesota 461-296 and needed a goal-line stand to win by three. They needed a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass on the last play of regulation to force overtime and get past Indiana. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Penn State is stronger than both those teams, is fresh off a bye and playing its final home game. Not only is Michigan on a second straight road trip, but it has "The Game" on deck. Penn State has a top 15 defense, an NFL-caliber quarterback and will pull off the upset.</offer>
ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 17, Michigan 16
[h=2]No. 15 LSU Tigers (+4.5) at No. 22 Ole Miss Rebels[/h]3:30 PM ET CBS
The situation favors Ole Miss, as the Rebels are fresh off a bye, while LSU has lost back-to-back games in which they were out-gained by a combined 874-512 and held to 54 and 59 yards rushing. LSU is 10-3 versus Ole Miss, with only one loss being by more than a field goal. The 'dog is 13-2 ATS in this series in the past 15 years and LSU is the higher-ranked team, getting over a field goal. Ole Miss has the edge at quarterback, but LSU has a larger edge at running back and also a defense that's allowing 46 fewer yards per game in SEC play. LSU's two-game losing streak will end with an upset win in Oxford.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 28, Ole Miss 27
[h=2]No. 24 USC Trojans (+4.5) at No. 23 Oregon Ducks[/h]3:30 PM ET, ESPN
The Ducks continue to surge now that Vernon Adams is healthy. They've knocked off Washington, Arizona State and Stanford on the road in their past four games. Oregon was out-gained by Arizona State by 241 yards, though, and needed a touchdown with eight seconds left to force overtime. Last week Stanford had a 32-18 first down edge, but Kevin Hogan fumbled two snaps in the fourth quarter and Stanford was stopped on the game-tying two-point conversion. USC hasn't played well as a large favorite, but in Pac-12 games where the spread has been under a touchdown, the Trojans show up motivated: They're a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS this season. USC is in the Pac 12 title game if they win out, and have the talent edge. The Trojans pulled the outright upset their last trip here in 2012 and will accomplish that feat again.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 38, Oregon 35
[h=2]No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats at No. 25Wisconsin Badgers (-10.5)[/h]3:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network
Both teams are 8-2, but I feel the Badgers are the stronger team on both sides of the ball, and are in a favorable situation. Wisconsin is fresh off a bye, which should allow Corey Clement back on the field. Both teams have solid defenses, but in Big Ten play Wisconsin allows 98 fewer yards per game (259 versus 357). Wisconsin is out-gaining their Big Ten foes by 134 yards per game and had a 320-221 yard edge on Iowa at home. Northwestern is actually being out-gained by 59 yards per game in league play. The home team is 11-1 straight up in the series and 10-1-1 ATS. Northwestern has not traveled since October 24th, but in that game was fortunate to beat Nebraska, as at one point it had a 10-1 first down deficit, but led 14-5. Wisconsin has allowed just 207 yards per game at home (369 on the road), while Northwestern's offense averages 380 yards per game at home, but just 257 on the road.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 7
[h=2]No. 10 Baylor Bears (PK) at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]7:15 PM ET, FOX
Oklahoma State is the last of the Big 12's unbeaten teams, but a one-loss Big 12 champ still has a great shot at the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State is playing with unbeaten pressure. The six unbeaten teams went 1-5 ATS last week with Baylor losing outright. Despite their unbeaten record, the 'Pokes are only plus-61 yards per game in conference play. While they beat a banged-up TCU 49-29 in their last home game, they were out-gained 663-456, benefiting from being plus four in turnovers. Baylor also has a large edge in running the football.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 38
[h=2]No. 9 Michigan State Spartans at No. 3Ohio State Buckeyes (-13)[/h]3:30 PM ET
If you are into angles, you will love the Spartans in this one. They are an outstanding 11-1 ATS as a 'dog, with seven outright wins. The visitor is 5-1 straight-up and 6-0 ATS in this series. This is the first ranked foe Ohio State has faced all year, while Michigan State has defeated two already. My computer loved Michigan over Michigan State, but I picked the Spartans to win outright, and they pulled the upset. While they needed a last-second miracle score, Michigan State did have a 386-230 yard edge.
Michigan State is just plus 42 yards per game and plus-10.6 points per game. Ohio State is plus-155 yards per game and plus-22.6 points per game. With those types of numbers, it is no wonder why Ohio State is almost a two-touchdown favorite. Ohio State has edges on offense, defense, special teams and is at home, while Connor Cook will probably not be 100 percent. Ohio State played its best ball at the end of last year in its biggest games and I give a slight lean to the favorite.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 28, Michigan State 13
[h=2]UCLA Bruins (+2) at No. 13 Utah Utes[/h]3:30 PM ET, FOX
Both teams lost last week, but UCLA still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South. UCLA has played well on the road. In fact, it is plus-203 yards per game away, while Utah is only plus-15 yards per game at home. UCLA is playing with revenge after a tough loss at home last year. UCLA's defense is banged up, but it has held all but two opponents below their season average. While Utah has slight edges on defense and special teams, UCLA is averaging over 500 yards per game in Pac-12 play. The early weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the 50s, so the California boys won't have to worry about snow.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 27, Utah 24
[h=2]Purdue Boilermakers (+22) at No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]12:00 ET, ESPN2
Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure, but doesn't need style points. If the Hawkeyes win out, they're in the playoff. As I mentioned earlier, unbeaten teams were 1-5 ATS last week. Iowa is solid, but not flashy and has eight wins over Power 5 teams by an average of 11 points per game. Only three of those eight teams, however, have a winning record. Iowa has to be concerned with its upcoming road trip to Nebraska. C.J. Beathard has not been 100 percent healthy, so don't expect him to be exposed much. Over his past three games, Purdue redshirt freshman quarterback David Blough has averaged 245 yards, completing 62 percent of his passes, with six TDs and three INTs. Purdue has faced three teams ranked by the committee, losing those by just an average of nine points per game.
ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Iowa 35, Purdue 20
[h=2]Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers(+8.5)[/h]7:15 PM ET, ESPN2
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Gary Pinkel loves his players and the players showed how much they love him after their upset of BYU. Pinkel is stepping down due to health reasons and this is his last home game, at night in the Zoo. The Tigers have a trip to Arkansas on deck and have to win one of their final two games to get to a bowl. Home 'dogs with the better defense are usually a solid play. Despite Mizzou being just 5-5, its defense is holding opponents to 81 yards per game below their season average. The Tigers offense has been the reason for their poor record, but Russell Hansbrough, who's been banged up, had his first 100-yard effort last week. True freshman Drew Lock continues to improve and threw for 244 yards, completing 68 percent of his passes last week. Tennessee has won only one SEC game by more than a touchdown.
ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 17, Tennessee 16
