[h=1]My best CFB championship weekend bets[/h]Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
In the first 13 weeks, my selections have gone 97-33 (75 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 69-59-2 (54 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]No. 5 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 4Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5) (in Indianapolis)[/h]Big Ten title game: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX
These two teams are evenly matched, with a slight edge to the Spartans. Michigan State has outgained its Big Ten foes by 87 yards per game, and Iowa by just 37 yards per game. Michigan State's defense has played its best in the big games, holding Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State to 207 yards per game below their combined season average. Iowa was outgained by Nebraska last week by 183 yards, and by 99 against Wisconsin.
Michigan State also has played in more big games than Iowa has in recent years, so the Spartans will be more prepared for the setting here. I like Michigan State to win the game, but I also listen to my computer that has it winning by three, with just 46 total points scored, and the total is 52. That means the value play is the under.
Pick: Under 52
Score: Michigan State 24, Iowa 21
[h=2]No. 20 USC Trojans (+4.5) vs. No. 7Stanford Cardinal (in Santa Clara, Calif.)[/h]Pac-12 title game: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
When these two teams met in September, USC was coming off two impressive wins and Stanford was off a win over a UCF team that finished winless. USC was basically a double-digit favorite at home (-9.5) and jumped to a 21-10 lead, but Stanford controlled the line of scrimmage and ended up winning 41-31. Stanford figures to have the home edge here, with Palo Alto just 14 miles from Santa Clara (Los Angeles is 345 miles away). USC now finds themselves as the 'dog.
Stanford is known for its defense, but it has allowed 506, 442, 436, 495 and 533 yards in five of its past seven games. The Cardinal have one of the best offensive lines in the country, a veteran senior quarterback in Kevin Hogan and a Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Christian McCaffrey. They are averaging 41 points per game in Pac-12 play.
USC has a balanced offense that can run the ball on anyone, a veteran quarterback in Cody Kessler and some of the top receivers in the country. The Trojans have dangerous return men and had 590 yards at Notre Dame earlier this season. I could make a good case for either Stanford or USC, but I see a high-scoring game, and the best value is probably on the over here.
Pick: Over 58.5
Score: Stanford 34, USC 31
[h=2]No. 18 Florida Gators vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) (in Atlanta)[/h]Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS
Florida wrapped up the SEC East but was unimpressive its past four games, including last week's 27-2 loss to Florida State. The Gators' offense has really struggled since Will Grier was suspended, and in their past four games, they've failed to top 262 yards of offense three times. They do have a top-notch defense, with one of the nation's best secondaries led by Vernon Hargreaves. Their defensive line should be healthier than they have been the past two weeks, and in SEC play they allow just 283 yards per game. They will be highly motivated by the fact no one is giving them a chance to win this game.
I have had the Tide as my No. 1 team for the past five weeks; they have the nation's best defense and the likely Heisman winner in Derrick Henry. I have Alabama winning, but this figures to be a low-scoring game, with my No. 1- and No. 5-rated defenses, and the under looks like the best play here.
ATS pick: Under 40
Score: Alabama 24, Florida 7
[h=2]No. 22 Temple Owls at No. 19 Houston Cougars (-6)[/h]AAC title game: Saturday, noon, ABC
Houston delivered for me last week versus Navy and controlled the game in a 52-31 win. While Greg Ward Jr. was not 100 percent, he was close to it, completing 26 of 35 passes for 308 yards and rushing for 83 more. Converted wide receiver Brandon Wilson ran for 111. Houston's defense has recorded 32 sacks.
Temple has held opponents to 74 yards per game below their season average, led by All-American linebacker Tyler Matakevich. The offense has a running back in Jahad Thomas, who enters with 1,188 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 17 touchdowns. P.J. Walker is completing only 57 percent of his passes, but has 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions.
The key for me in this game is the difference in Temple's defensive performance depending on the location. The Owls have played teams like Notre Dame, Penn State and the explosive offense of Memphis at home this season, yet are allowing just 210 yards per game. On the road, they are allowing more than double that (447 yards per game). I expect Houston to wrap up the Group of Five conference champ major bowl bid with a solid win here.
ATS pick: Houston
Score: Houston 35, Temple 24
[h=2]West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas State Wildcats (+7)[/h]Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
This is a game in which I disagree with my computer. West Virginia is holding opponents to 84 yards per game below their season average and the offense is gaining 34 yards per game more. In Big 12 play, the Mountaineers are outgaining foes by 8 yards per game. Kansas State is being outgained in Big 12 play by 155 yards per game and its offense is averaging 104 yards per game below what their opponents allow on average.
While my computer is forecasting West Virginia to win by 11, I like the home 'dog here. Coach Bill Snyder has covered his past eight as a home underdog when not facing Oklahoma. West Virginia is plus-133 yards per game at home, but minus-40 yards per game on the road. Kansas State lost to Baylor and TCU by only seven points each and needs a win here to wrap up a bowl bid. Kansas State also has the special teams edge with my No. 7-rated unit, while West Virginia checks in at No. 56.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 28, West Virginia 27
[h=2]Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs(-4.5)[/h]Mountain West title game: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
San Diego State was just 1-3 in nonconference play, but has been absolutely dominant in Mountain West play. Donnel Pumphrey has rushed for 1,494 yards (5.5 YPC) and Chase Price has added 859 (5.6 YPC). When the Aztecs had to pass this season (they ran it 577 times, passed it 226), Maxwell Smith completed only 55 percent, but he has a 13-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Their defense allowed just 227 yards per game in conference action.
Air Force has also had a great season, including putting up 580 yards versus Utah State and 607 yards versus Boise State. The Falcons were plus-138 yards per game in Mountain West play, and their defense allowed 359 yards per game in conference play. Each of their four losses this season, however, has been by double digits.
Rocky Long is one of the best defensive minds in stopping the option, dating to his days at New Mexico, and he may have his most talented defense of his career. The line opened with San Diego State a touchdown favorite, but it has come down to minus-4.5 with the news that Smith is out for San Diego State. They beat Nevada with him completing just three passes last week and Christian Chapman hit 6 of 9. The Aztecs rely on the running game and their defense, and have outgained their opponents by 134 yards per game at home. I like San Diego State here.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 30, Air Force 20
[h=2]No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 1Clemson Tigers (-5) (in Charlotte, N.C.)[/h]ACC title game: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Tigers fans know that I have picked against them ATS the past three weeks and won all three times. I have said many times that they did not need to impress the pollsters and just needed to win; in the past three weeks, the undefeated teams are just 2-12 ATS. The oddsmakers have finally caught up and Clemson may be underpriced this week. Clemson has an explosive offense, outgaining its ACC foes by 272 yards per game.
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</article>There is a lot of talk about how improved the North Carolina defense has been this season, but I have a stat that will surprise you: North Carolina has taken on a weak schedule, including a pair of FCS teams, and the Tar Heels have actually allowed their opponents 37 yards per game above their season average. Clemson is holding foes to 100 yards per game below what they average. While this game is in Charlotte and the Tar Heels have already played a game here, the schools are each roughly 135 miles away. I think Clemson continues on its path to the College Football Playoff.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 38, North Carolina 30
ESPN INSIDER
Each week during the 2015 college football season, I will offer my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.
In the first 13 weeks, my selections have gone 97-33 (75 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 69-59-2 (54 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=2]No. 5 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 4Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5) (in Indianapolis)[/h]Big Ten title game: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX
These two teams are evenly matched, with a slight edge to the Spartans. Michigan State has outgained its Big Ten foes by 87 yards per game, and Iowa by just 37 yards per game. Michigan State's defense has played its best in the big games, holding Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State to 207 yards per game below their combined season average. Iowa was outgained by Nebraska last week by 183 yards, and by 99 against Wisconsin.
Michigan State also has played in more big games than Iowa has in recent years, so the Spartans will be more prepared for the setting here. I like Michigan State to win the game, but I also listen to my computer that has it winning by three, with just 46 total points scored, and the total is 52. That means the value play is the under.
Pick: Under 52
Score: Michigan State 24, Iowa 21
[h=2]No. 20 USC Trojans (+4.5) vs. No. 7Stanford Cardinal (in Santa Clara, Calif.)[/h]Pac-12 title game: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
When these two teams met in September, USC was coming off two impressive wins and Stanford was off a win over a UCF team that finished winless. USC was basically a double-digit favorite at home (-9.5) and jumped to a 21-10 lead, but Stanford controlled the line of scrimmage and ended up winning 41-31. Stanford figures to have the home edge here, with Palo Alto just 14 miles from Santa Clara (Los Angeles is 345 miles away). USC now finds themselves as the 'dog.
Stanford is known for its defense, but it has allowed 506, 442, 436, 495 and 533 yards in five of its past seven games. The Cardinal have one of the best offensive lines in the country, a veteran senior quarterback in Kevin Hogan and a Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Christian McCaffrey. They are averaging 41 points per game in Pac-12 play.
USC has a balanced offense that can run the ball on anyone, a veteran quarterback in Cody Kessler and some of the top receivers in the country. The Trojans have dangerous return men and had 590 yards at Notre Dame earlier this season. I could make a good case for either Stanford or USC, but I see a high-scoring game, and the best value is probably on the over here.
Pick: Over 58.5
Score: Stanford 34, USC 31
[h=2]No. 18 Florida Gators vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) (in Atlanta)[/h]Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS
Florida wrapped up the SEC East but was unimpressive its past four games, including last week's 27-2 loss to Florida State. The Gators' offense has really struggled since Will Grier was suspended, and in their past four games, they've failed to top 262 yards of offense three times. They do have a top-notch defense, with one of the nation's best secondaries led by Vernon Hargreaves. Their defensive line should be healthier than they have been the past two weeks, and in SEC play they allow just 283 yards per game. They will be highly motivated by the fact no one is giving them a chance to win this game.
I have had the Tide as my No. 1 team for the past five weeks; they have the nation's best defense and the likely Heisman winner in Derrick Henry. I have Alabama winning, but this figures to be a low-scoring game, with my No. 1- and No. 5-rated defenses, and the under looks like the best play here.
ATS pick: Under 40
Score: Alabama 24, Florida 7
[h=2]No. 22 Temple Owls at No. 19 Houston Cougars (-6)[/h]AAC title game: Saturday, noon, ABC
Houston delivered for me last week versus Navy and controlled the game in a 52-31 win. While Greg Ward Jr. was not 100 percent, he was close to it, completing 26 of 35 passes for 308 yards and rushing for 83 more. Converted wide receiver Brandon Wilson ran for 111. Houston's defense has recorded 32 sacks.
Temple has held opponents to 74 yards per game below their season average, led by All-American linebacker Tyler Matakevich. The offense has a running back in Jahad Thomas, who enters with 1,188 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 17 touchdowns. P.J. Walker is completing only 57 percent of his passes, but has 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions.
The key for me in this game is the difference in Temple's defensive performance depending on the location. The Owls have played teams like Notre Dame, Penn State and the explosive offense of Memphis at home this season, yet are allowing just 210 yards per game. On the road, they are allowing more than double that (447 yards per game). I expect Houston to wrap up the Group of Five conference champ major bowl bid with a solid win here.
ATS pick: Houston
Score: Houston 35, Temple 24
[h=2]West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas State Wildcats (+7)[/h]Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
This is a game in which I disagree with my computer. West Virginia is holding opponents to 84 yards per game below their season average and the offense is gaining 34 yards per game more. In Big 12 play, the Mountaineers are outgaining foes by 8 yards per game. Kansas State is being outgained in Big 12 play by 155 yards per game and its offense is averaging 104 yards per game below what their opponents allow on average.
While my computer is forecasting West Virginia to win by 11, I like the home 'dog here. Coach Bill Snyder has covered his past eight as a home underdog when not facing Oklahoma. West Virginia is plus-133 yards per game at home, but minus-40 yards per game on the road. Kansas State lost to Baylor and TCU by only seven points each and needs a win here to wrap up a bowl bid. Kansas State also has the special teams edge with my No. 7-rated unit, while West Virginia checks in at No. 56.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 28, West Virginia 27
[h=2]Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs(-4.5)[/h]Mountain West title game: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
San Diego State was just 1-3 in nonconference play, but has been absolutely dominant in Mountain West play. Donnel Pumphrey has rushed for 1,494 yards (5.5 YPC) and Chase Price has added 859 (5.6 YPC). When the Aztecs had to pass this season (they ran it 577 times, passed it 226), Maxwell Smith completed only 55 percent, but he has a 13-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Their defense allowed just 227 yards per game in conference action.
Air Force has also had a great season, including putting up 580 yards versus Utah State and 607 yards versus Boise State. The Falcons were plus-138 yards per game in Mountain West play, and their defense allowed 359 yards per game in conference play. Each of their four losses this season, however, has been by double digits.
Rocky Long is one of the best defensive minds in stopping the option, dating to his days at New Mexico, and he may have his most talented defense of his career. The line opened with San Diego State a touchdown favorite, but it has come down to minus-4.5 with the news that Smith is out for San Diego State. They beat Nevada with him completing just three passes last week and Christian Chapman hit 6 of 9. The Aztecs rely on the running game and their defense, and have outgained their opponents by 134 yards per game at home. I like San Diego State here.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 30, Air Force 20
[h=2]No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 1Clemson Tigers (-5) (in Charlotte, N.C.)[/h]ACC title game: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Tigers fans know that I have picked against them ATS the past three weeks and won all three times. I have said many times that they did not need to impress the pollsters and just needed to win; in the past three weeks, the undefeated teams are just 2-12 ATS. The oddsmakers have finally caught up and Clemson may be underpriced this week. Clemson has an explosive offense, outgaining its ACC foes by 272 yards per game.
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</article>There is a lot of talk about how improved the North Carolina defense has been this season, but I have a stat that will surprise you: North Carolina has taken on a weak schedule, including a pair of FCS teams, and the Tar Heels have actually allowed their opponents 37 yards per game above their season average. Clemson is holding foes to 100 yards per game below what they average. While this game is in Charlotte and the Tar Heels have already played a game here, the schools are each roughly 135 miles away. I think Clemson continues on its path to the College Football Playoff.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 38, North Carolina 30
