PGA Tour - Mercedes

[details1971]

Hopefully I will have my picks out weekly a little earlier but definitely want to post these this year. Had a good year last year and hope to keep it going. I work for a golf manufacturer and get some good info from the practice tee each week that usually can garner some good insight. Good luck to everyone this year.

Els -0.5(+113) ov Singh (RD 1 only)
-It has paid off the last two years to ride Els the first couple weeks of the year. Singh to me only tends to rise to the occasion against lesser competition.

Campbell -125 ov Clarke
-I have to agree with Fingerlakes post that I believe Cambell is going to have a breakout year.

Goosen -160 ov K. Perry
-This is a no brainer to me as Perry is a streaky player at best. When Perry is on he is definitely on but the rest of the time I would take a player like Goosen who is much more stable everytime.

Maruyama +110 ov Triplett
-I look for Maruyama to have another good year this year. He is definitely like Triplett in that they are both streaky players. Maruyama seems to be more on the rise while Triplett is just struggling to hang on. I look for Maruyama to have a good year and usually can make some money on him by playing him as a dog.

 

[details1971]

All plays above are for 1 unit each. I am also adding the following:

Furyk 10-1 to win for 1/2 a unit

Goosen 12-1 to win for 1/2 a unit

 

[Fingerlakes]

Details,

Nice looking card and write ups. I like the Maruyama play. I've cashed in with the Asian players the last few years, especially him and KJ choi. Good luck to you this week.

 

[details1971]

Fingerlakes,

I agree with the asian players as the bigger the stage the better they tend to do as they play so much. The only thing I have seen with Maruyama is that you need to watch how much he travels. He tends to get really mediocre towards the middle to the end of the season when he has been traveling so much. I think this is one of the reasons why Els is so good at the beginning of the year when he is rested. Beginning of the year I would say Els is probably number one or two but by the middle of the year is probably only a top 20 player although you can never overlook him in the majors as he is a good top ten player.

 

[delmo]

Just got Furyk at 11-1 and Els over Tiger at +140. Neither bet may win but I believe these 2 plays represent good value. Nice to see other people who are interested in betting on golf.

Besides the PGA Tour and the golf channel website does anyone know any other sites that offer a good insight into the tour?

Delmo

 

[details1971]

Delmo,

the link below is a good golf betting website with tons of good info. Some of their info is going pay for use next month I belive though.

http://www.tour-tips.com/

 

[delmo]

Details, thanks for the info. I will check it out.

Delmo

 

[details1971]

For all of you following golf I thought I would show you what the tour-tips database has on it for matchups. You can chooses any two golfers and the time frame and it will show you how they have matched up. It would be nice if you could have these access the current bets and do it for every one for a time period but it still is a good resource. I believe it is free right now till Febr. Wow it sounds like I am touting this site but just discovered this early this week and thought it was a good feature. Here is an example of Jan to June for one of my picks this week.

Retief Goosen Kenny Perry
Date Tour / Course / Event Pos R1 - R2 - R3 - R4 - R5 Total Winner Pos R1 - R2 - R3 - R4 - R5 Total
1/6/2003 PGA / Muirfield Village / Memorial Tournament 07 67 - 67 - 74 - 73 - 281 Kenny Perry 01 65 - 68 - 70 - 72 - 275
13/4/2003 PGA / Augusta / The Masters 13 73 - 74 - 72 - 70 - 289 Retief Goosen 39 76 - 72 - 78 - 71 - 297
30/3/2003 PGA / Sawgrass / The Players Championship mc 73 - 72 - - - 145 Kenny Perry 32 70 - 73 - 69 - 75 - 287
2/3/2003 WGC / La Costa / World Matchplay 33 - - - - Tie 33 - - - -
26/1/2003 PGA / Scottsdale / Phoenix Open 03 65 - 68 - 65 - 67 - 265 Retief Goosen mc 70 - 70 - - - 140
19/1/2003 PGA / Waialae / Sony Open in Hawaii 20 64 - 66 - 72 - 71 - 273 Retief Goosen 50 64 - 71 - 71 - 71 - 277
Head to Head Score Retief Goosen 3 - 2 Kenny Perry

 

[parlayin]

hey details, not sure if you do this already, but if you can shop around for lines, you could have gotten better odds on furyk and goosen. 12-1 and 18-1 i believe

 

[details1971]

I know I should of done a little more homework on those. I should of looked around more. I usually only play the outrights on the limited field tournaments so I don't look around that much at them and threw them in at the last moment.

I do play the interactives at world sports exchange a lot once the weekend comes though. I haven't met anyone yet who plays those regularly. I have found shorting certain players come Sunday to be very lucrative. Shorting Tiger last year turned out to be really good as he was still bet really high even when he wasn't in the tournament. The amazing this is people still bet on him to win on the last day when he needs to shoot a 62 or 63 and have the leader be even par. He has done it but not often enough to warrant the amount people bet on him.

 

Details,

I have heard about the interactives at WSEX. How do they work?

 

[details1971]

I have listed below what they look like right now. They change during the round shot by shot. The bid which is the left hand number is what you can sell a golfer at and the ask is what you can buy a golfer at for one contract. Each contract is worth $100. Lets take Tiger who is on top as an example. If you wanted to purchase tiger to win the tourney right now you would pay $18 and get $100 if he won but you don't necessarily need to wait till the tournament is over. Say he shots a low number today and the number rises you could probably then turn around and sell him for 30 or 35 and lock in a profit.

You can also sell contracts on golfers that you don't own. Lets say that even thought Clarke had a good round you don't think he will win you can sell him short which is what I do mainly but usually wait till Saturday or Sunday when the amounts rise as usually their are only 5 to 10 golfer in a tourney to win by then. So if you sold Clarke short now you would automatically get $15 placed into your account and $100 frozen but not taken away from your account. If Clarke doesn't win then the $100 is yours again after the tournament is over. If he does win then you lose the 100. They have a money line conversion chart as well if it is easier to think of these numbers in those terms. Right now for Clarke and Tiger to win the moneyline odds are +456. Let me know if you have any questions it took me a while to figure it out and get comfortable with it in the beginning. I also do it sometimes during the football/Basketball games but the action occurs so quickly that you really have to watch. In fact I looked back at the bowl games I did them with and most of the games the interactive side I had bought ended up not covering the game but because I was buying low and thinking the team down would score a little and then selling when they did it worked out.

Event Series Name Series Bid Ask
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 TIGER WOODS 15 18
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 VIJAY SINGH 13 16
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 DARREN CLARKE 9 12
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 DAVIS LOVE III 9 11
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 STUART APPLEBY 8 10
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 JIM FURYK 24815 7 9
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 RETIEF GOOSEN 5 7
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 JUSTIN LEONARD 4 5
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 ADAM SCOTT 4 5
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 CHAD CAMPBELL 2 3
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 KIRK TRIPLETT 2 3
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 ERNIE ELS 2 3
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 JOHN HUSTON 2 3
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 SHIGEKI MARUYAMA 2 3
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 MIKE WEIR 2 3
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 FRED COUPLES 2 3
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 SCOTT HOCH 1 2
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 SHAUN MICHEEL 0 2
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 KENNY PERRY 0 2
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 RORY SABBATINI 0 2
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 BEN CRANE 0 1
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 STEVE FLESCH 0 1
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 JONATHAN KAYE 0 1
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 BOB TWAY 0 1
MERCEDESCHAMP-2004 BEN CURTIS 0 1

 

Details,

Thanks for the reply. I am a bit confused. For clarification, if I wanted to bet AGAINST Stuart Appleby at this monment, I would RISK $15 to WIN $100? Correct? If he indeed DID'NT win the tourney I would have a profit of $85??

Also, what about all of the golfers with zeros?
Does this mean NO CURRENT action is available on them?

 

[details1971]

Actually it is the other way around. If you bet against Appleby you would get $15 immediatly but risk $100 to get that. If he did win net you would lose $85 as the $15 is given to you right away. That part is kind of confusing and I definitely wouldn't advise doing it on something that low. Sometimes you could get a golfer like Tiger this early and sell him for $30 or $40 but normally you need to wait till Saturday or Sunday to get close to it being higher. As less people have a chance to win and it get closer to the end you can make more. Take a look at the odds on Saturday and you will see the leaders much higher. If you watch them during the round you can get a good feel as well at how they fluctuate.

As for the 0 amounts you could buy those golfers but if you owned contracts on them they are worthless. Most 0 amounts have a 0 as the bid and either 2 or 1 as the ask. It means if you thought that golfer had a shot you could buy a contract for $1 or $2 depending upon what the ask says. At that time you couldn't sell that contract back until the bid went above 0 which usually if the golfer gets closer to contention. Sometimes when betting while the action is going on it isn't always trying to pick the winner of the tournament but who you feel will do well on a few holes and the value will rise. It is based upon buying options on the stock market so just like the stock market sometimes the best plays are just to try and make a little and not try to ride it to the end. You can buy as many contracts as you like.

Here is a great example where I made some money last year but I can only remember the circumstances but can't remember the golfer. I think it was Furyk but I can't remember. This is towards the end of the year. The golfer goes really low in the first two rounds and leads by 7 or 8 shots. At that time the bid and ask were 80 and 85 meaning I could buy him to win at 85 or sell him at 80. I bought 10 contracts at $85 each and made sure I watched all the action in case he tanked. He ended up winning easily and I made a quick $150 but the point to watching was that if he started to tank I didn't think he couldn't hang on I would of sold him off or some of the contracts if it lowered to 65 or 70 and just taken my lumps at taken the risk. Normally though I don't like to go that route.

It is fun late Sundays when there are only 2 or 3 golfers in contention and you feel like you can pick who will win the odds you are placing are usually close to even or a little below depending upon who is in the race. As I have stated before if there are 2 or 3 and Tiger is one they practically give it to him and the odds are much higher for him which gives some good opportunities to short him as he doesn't win every time. A great example of this now is when I sent this out Tiger had the best odds but yet is 5 strokes off of the lead. If the places were switched Appleby would be some like 2 bid 3 ask.

 

[details1971]

I will try to post some of my interactive plays here to see how I do and track them as well.

I sold Vijay short for $51 per contract for 2 contracts. total $102 deposited in my account. If I lose I will lose the $200 now frozen. My thought here is that Vijay is way overpriced compared to Appleby and Clarke who are right behind him. I may buy this one back tomorrow depending upon what happens today but I just don't see Vijay going low again as most players on tour don't string together low rounds like he had yesterday. I see him shooting 2 or 3 under today and probably being tied for the lead going into the final round.

I bought 5 contracts on Tiger at $6. Normally he is overpriced but this seems like a good short term wajor. If he can shot 4 to 6 under today I should be able to pick up a small win. This is not a to win play as I am looking for him to have a good day as he normally plays himself into contention on Saturdays. If he does this I will probably lock in a profit later tonight or tomorrow and sell 3 or 4 of the contracts and leave one or two still pending to have a shot at the win. Overall only a risk of $30 that has a win potential of $470. This equates to a ml wager right now of +1570 and you aren't locked into the bet if you sell some before the end. If he makes up any ground on the leader today look for those Tiger bettors to start linning up and push him back to his normal overpriced amounts.

 

[details1971]

Well I chickened out today. I sold off all of my Tiger interactives for $4 each for a total loss of $10. I thought this one would jump higher and maybe be able to pick up a 1/4 unit or $25.

Vijay did exactly what I thought yesterday surrendering the lead. I bought back one of my positions that I sold short for $37 netting $14. The other position I am going to leave as I think either Appleby will pull it off or Goosen may come from further back in the pack.

Normally I am much more aggressive with these but it is so early in the season I haven't quite got a feel yet for it and am a little gun shy.

 

[details1971]

I am adding two fourth round matchup plays:

Goosen -.5 ov Clarke (-108) 1 unit
-Goosen is playing the better golf here and could be close to leading this tournament if he could've gotten some putts to fall in the earlier rounds. Yesterday that started to happen. I look for him to challenge for the lead today if Appleby falters at all.

Hoch +0.5 ov Tiger (+230) 1 unit
Hoch has played consistent all tournament and I look for this again today. Hoch is the type of player who plays hard regardless of if he has a shot to win or not. I look for him to shoot 4 or 5 under today. Being 7 shots back unless Tiger gets off to a quck start he will realize he has no chance to win. Tiger is really one of the only players on tour that doesn't play for the money by playing safe to protect a finish anywhere other than first place. Once he realizes he cannot win he will settle into mediocracy and more than likely only shoot 3 or 4 over. All I need is for them to shoot the same number for the win. I like this play and if it wasn't so early in the year would probably hammer it for more as to me this is a good value play.

 

[details1971]

Ouch... Bad start to the first tour event. My 4th round bets were looking good with 4 to play but they just didn't work out.

Matchups:
This week: 1-5 ; -4.33 units

Els -0.5(+113) ov Singh (RD 1 only) 1 unit Loss
Campbell -125 ov Clarke 1 unit Loss
Goosen -160 ov K. Perry 1 unit won
Maruyama +110 ov Triplett 1 unit Loss
4th rd Goosen -.5 ov Clarke (-108) 1 unit Loss
4th rd Hoch +0.5 ov Tiger (+230) 1 unit Loss

OUtrights:
This Week: 0-2 ; -1 unit

Furyk 10-1 to win for 1/2 a unit loss
Goosen 12-1 to win for 1/2 a unit loss


Interactives(I won't list a record for the year to follow but only in money/units($100=1 unit).
This week: +$55 / +.55 units

Tiger Woods $6 5 contracts - sold 5 contracts at $4. Loss of $10

Short Vijay $51 2 contracts - bought back one contract at $37(net $14). Other contract Vijay didn't win so won $51. Overall net of $65