http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/24/sports/baseball/24yankees.html
December 23, 2010
Bronx? Cooperstown? Pettitte Is a Man of Many Questions
By BEN SHPIGEL
If
Andy Pettitte has indeed thrown his last pitch, he will retire with more victories than Whitey Ford, a better winning percentage than Bob Feller, Juan Marichal and
Tom Seaver, and the most postseason wins in baseball history. Pettitte also owns a higher earned run average than Bob Welch, Rick Reuschel and Jerry Reuss, despite pitching fewer innings, and has finished in the top three in Cy Young Award balloting once.
As Pettitte mulls whether to pitch next season for the
Yankees, who would heartily welcome him back to their thin rotation, his place in baseball history may also be at stake. With a career record of 240-138 and five World Series titles,
Pettitte has become a viable Hall of Fame candidate, although still something of a long shot.
A strong last hurrah in 2011, when he turns 39, could enhance his credentials. It would probably help if he pitched in 2012, too, and pushed his victory total to about 270. .
Of nine baseball writers who responded to an e-mail from The New York Times about Pettitte’s candidacy, two said they would vote for him on a Hall of Fame ballot, four said they would not and three said they were undecided. Candidates must receive 75 percent of votes cast by 10-year members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
“He has had an excellent career but has not crossed the Hall of Fame threshold,” said Bob Nightengale of USA Today in an e-mail. “He would need to rack up another strong season or two for me to consider him for the Hall of Fame. He has always been an outstanding complementary pitcher, but never that ace.”
Pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown often get there one of two ways: for being a dominant figure of their generation, as was the case with
Sandy Koufax, or for longevity, with victories emerging as the key metric.
Pettitte does not seem to fall into either category. More than anything, consistency has defined his career. As he won 15 games year after year and collected championships, other pitchers were more brilliant.
Pettitte was never viewed as the best of his time, an honor bestowed to other left-handers, like Randy Johnson or
Tom Glavine, or peerless right-handers like
Pedro Martinez,
Greg Maddux,
Roger Clemens, or even
John Smoltz or
Curt Schilling. To journalists keeping a narrow definition of a Hall of Famer, Pettitte does not measure up.
“I’m leaning heavily against a Hall of Fame vote for Pettitte,” said Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post, who voted for Bert Blyleven (287-250, 3.31 E.R.A.) on the 2011 ballot and also responded in an e-mail. “Solid pitcher but not a Hall of Famer. I don’t like the E.R.A. and, aside from 1996, didn’t finish top three in Cy Young voting. And I wonder what his win total would be if not for Mariano closing. I’ll study him more closely once he becomes eligible. I haven’t completely shut the door on him yet, but it’s closing fast.”
As Felix Hernandez’s and Zack Greinke’s recent victories in American League Cy Young Award balloting demonstrate, voters are looking beyond a pitcher’s record to appraise his performance. Complete-game shutouts, which gauge a starter’s dominance over time, are relevant, and Pettitte’s four are tied for fewest among the 235 pitchers who have worked at least 2,500 innings, according to Stats, LLC.
His 3.88 E.R.A. would be the highest for any pitcher in the National
Baseball Hall of Fame — unless Jack Morris, with a 3.90, is eventually enshrined — although Pettitte fares better in E.R.A. plus, which adjusts for the ballpark and the league average, and is a statistic that one voter, Peter Abraham of
The Boston Globe, said he found helpful. In that category, Pettitte ranks higher than Steve Carlton and Ferguson Jenkins, who are both in the Hall.
As Capozzi noted,
Mariano Rivera’s near-infallibility may have inflated Pettitte’s victory totals — Rivera has saved 68 regular-season victories for Pettitte, according to the Elias Sports Bureau — and it certainly helped his dazzling postseason numbers.
Abraham called that an asset to Pettitte’s candidacy, which is still complicated by Pettitte’s admission to using human growth hormone in several instances. Pettitte said he used it to accelerate his recovery from injuries, not to improve his performance.
“I’d first want to walk up to Andy, tell him I have a vote and ask him whether his P.E.D. use helped him any games,” Abraham said, using an abbreviation for performance-enhancing drugs. “His answer would help me decide what comes next.”
Some voters, like Scott Miller of
cbssports.com, said they were withholding Hall of Fame votes from any player tied to performance-enhancers, a group that also includes
Mark McGwire,
Barry Bonds and Clemens.
Each of those players posted statistics that, under normal circumstances, would almost certainly gain them induction. Pettitte has a superb body of work, but did not excel in a particular area except, perhaps, in winning championships. He pitched the majority of his career in the rough-and-tumble A.L. East, and in increasingly smaller ballparks, but so did
Mike Mussina, who never left that division, won 270 games and also outshines Pettitte in shutouts, winning percentage and E.R.A.
“Pettitte didn’t even win 250 games and I know the game has changed, but that causes me a little pause,” Kevin Baxter of The Los Angeles Times said in an e-mail. It was only a little pause for Baxter, who said he looked at Pettitte’s statistics and appreciated his durability, consistency and adaptability, particularly how he won 37 games with a 3.38 E.R.A. in three seasons in Houston.
“I guess I’m kind of talking myself into it,” Baxter said. “I probably would vote for him.”
Baxter was speaking hypothetically, however, because the Los Angeles Times, like The New York Times, does not let its writers cast ballots for the Hall of Fame. But Pettitte will need plenty of Baxters who do vote if he is going to make it to Cooperstown. It would help if he would keep pitching, but does he want to?