I'm going Penn State. Here's my write-up from a different thread:
Michigan @ Penn State (-24) (BEST BET)
There’s no way I can, in all good conscience, take the Wolverines here. I took them last week to cover the 17-point spread against Toledo and then sat and watched that game incredibly embarrassed all game long. Let’s say it’s a rebuilding year for the Wolverines and move on. They have a new coach, a new system, and young players all over the field. Sam McGuffie has been impressive but he has very little help offensively. The Wolverines figure to get Martavious Odoms back this week to play alongside Greg Matthews. This will help them, but it won’t be enough.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are absolutely stacked this year. They are too many weapons offensively: Darryl Clark, Evan Royster, Stephon Green, Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood, and Deon Butler. Hell, their backup quarterback Pat Devlin would be the starter hands down on Michigan. They just put a beat down on Wisconsin in Madison that nobody is supposed to put on Wisconsin in Madison.
With Oklahoma, Missouri, and LSU all losing last week people are finally starting to mention Penn State in the National Championship talk. They want to prove that they are for real and deserve to be included in those talks. They will do just that this Saturday, in front of an ABC audience by destroying Michigan. Ignore the large spread and take Penn State to cover.