paying for picks.

[bfis108137]

paying for picks.... Could it be a good proposition?

You know I have always thought that if you could find a good handicapper and stick with him that you could make some serious loot. I mean I see some guys out there on monitored services that are picking over the course of time at 60% and that could yield some serious profit in the long haul. The only problems that I see are that first of all I think you would have to start out big. I mean you would probably have to have about 2-4 grand minimum to offset the pick fees. I know there are those that won't pay for picks but I would liken it to a stock trader that pays for stock advice and it can amount to way more than that sometimes. Has anyone stayed disciplined with one handicapper for a period of time? What percentage of your bankroll can you play and reasonably not worry about going bankrupt? Which one did you use? I mean seriously if you could take 4 g's and play one guy's 60% picks for a year and just take out the money to pay for the picks I think you could possibly be a millionaire after that year. I ran it through a computer program that I wrote and here is a list of 10000 different dollar totals for someone starting with 4k paying $500 for picks each week and betting 2% of the bankroll on each pick with an average of 3 picks a day for 1 full year. It based on using picks that come out 60% on the average but it does use a randoming sequence so it does take into account the scenario where a handicapper could have a bad week or 2 even. Just look at the numbers in the middle. The stuff on the sides is programming language. Now if you notice you could possibly lose but the amount you could lose is peanuts compared to the winnings and I bet if you dropped it down to 1% the odds would go even higher. The program uses the microsoft random engine which is known for being unreliable but even these reults are encouraging. Also note that the computer is taking into account that each puck has a 60% of being right which means at some point it's possible that the capper could go and pick like 50 wrong in a row but I don't think I have ever seen anything liek that. Well the forum wouldn't let me put the list but the average profit was $639,577,430,026.03. lol Now I ran another test with just 2000 samples so you could see the reults and I got this average $655,954,340,899.06. Similar numbers actually.

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[newb411breaker19]

60% long term on something like nfl, nba, even ncaab or ncaaf sides is not achievable long term, particularly if you are trying to make a fair amount of bets each year...

on nfl sides, if you could even hit 54% long term, you'd have been quite successful...

with the 60% records you are referring to, approximately how large is the sample size (number of bets)... over the long term it really isn't achievable on major sports... i'm sure if you are very good with props, you might achieve that, but of course the vig is usually higher and the limits of course are much lower...

the reality is, even if you could hit 60% long term, you could never get down substantial amounts...

plus, 99.999 percent of touts are scammers... there's really only a few very legitimate services that win consistently...

after awhile you will realize that while your reasoning on this is optimistic, it unfortunately has no basis in reality...

 

[rnorris1]

The calculation in row 744 seems to be off due to a rounding error.

This might explain the incorrect number.

Could just be the Zyprexa causing the isssue too though.

 

[BadCo]

I mean seriously if you could take 4 g's and play one guy's 60% picks for a year and just take out the money to pay for the picks I think you could possibly be a millionaire after that year.
[l

There in lies the rub,if a capper could hit 60% he would be a millionaire and why waste time hustling marks on the internet?

 

[Cusipz]

There in lies the rub,if a capper could hit 60% he would be a millionaire and why waste time hustling marks on the internet?

Because hustling marks on the internet is infinitely easier than picking 60% long term. :drink:

 

[redatmosphere]

I think this is where this first starts to break down...

"I ran it through a computer program that I wrote.."

Why don't you post some of the summary statistics? The variance, just at first glance, looks um..interesting.

I think there's something really wrong with your math here too. I think instead you should think about the capper's ability as being some sort of distribution. If you went to VegasInsider and looked at all the capping records of the touts and then entered them as the distribution, instead of 60% [min, mean, max]. I think you'd come away with drastically different results.

Between the years of 1978-1983, if you planned to put $1M in the S&P 500 and withdraw 10% every year (to live on), on hopes that the index would rise on average 15% a year (because it does...on average). You would've only been able to keep your $1M around until 2008 if you had invested in 1981. It's sort of the same thing here. You're plugging in 60% (with a little Microsoft RNG to add noise) and that'll inflate your results for sure.

 

[Iceman]

60% over 500 plays with 50/50 type wagers is completely 100% impossibile.

I have made close to 50,000 bets over 2.5 years and have never had a 1,000 bet sequence over 57% and that might be pushing it a little. I think my best would 56% range and that might be just once.

 

[bellyputter]

You will always encounter problems in the long term following anyone but yourself. You can learn to control your emotions and teach yourself wagering discipline, but not someone else. The only opinion that counts over time, is your own.

 

[bfis108137]

these statistics are very bad because i was using a bad random number generator. In all actually the statistics are much better than this. The averages are much worse as would be suspected but the standard deviation is by far easier to deal with. As far as my programming ability it's not very complicated code. I would be more than happy to post it but I believe that is not for this forum. In the previous code I used the default random number generator which is not really random at all but here I used something much more advanced. As far as finding people online I think there are quite a few that get good ratings in the forums and that are tracked and are always hitting right around 58-60%. Or maybe to put things better. If someone invested their entire day everyday like it was their job to pick a few winners a day they could probably do that. As far as those that say that you can learn to control your emotions, I don't know that I agree with that. Here you have a guy who has won over time. He has proven that he knows how to stay the course and many people don't know how to do that. I say it's just like a stock advisor. It's his job and he knows how to do as long as you are careful not to get stuck with a fraud. Anyways the avg for the much improved random number generator was 3722519.52 and the stats are as follows. I added the effect that you can't lose more than you have so any loss is 0.

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[999] 3991563.1571664159269697093632 decimal

 

[bfis108137]

these statistics are very bad because i was using a bad random number generator. In all actually the statistics are much better than this. The averages are much worse as would be suspected but the standard deviation is by far easier to deal with. As far as my programming ability it's not very complicated code. I would be more than happy to post it but I believe that is not for this forum. In the previous code I used the default random number generator which is not really random at all but here I used something much more advanced. As far as finding people online I think there are quite a few that get good ratings in the forums and that are tracked and are always hitting right around 58-60%. Or maybe to put things better. If someone invested their entire day everyday like it was their job to pick a few winners a day they could probably do that. As far as those that say that you can learn to control your emotions, I don't know that I agree with that. Here you have a guy who has won over time. He has proven that he knows how to stay the course and many people don't know how to do that. I say it's just like a stock advisor. It's his job and he knows how to do as long as you are careful not to get stuck with a fraud. Anyways the avg for the much improved random number generator was 3722519.52 and the stats are as follows. I added the effect that you can't lose more than you have so any loss is 0.

[0] 3815572.210497536 decimal
[1] 3521934.8633629328565932825048 decimal
[2] 3724426.8202725872372047411554 decimal
[3] 3830030.8678020865628797682762 decimal
[4] 3707456.1786209899894459754206 decimal
[5] 3904685.595103772672 decimal
[6] 4074122.9215066412213531919044 decimal
[7] 3792072.2703239390953472 decimal
[8] 0 decimal
[9] 3242013.1568443810571223544349 decimal
[10] 3485370.429804326216717350893 decimal
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[995] 3729412.210497536 decimal
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[998] 3668999.1903263373272805199086 decimal
[999] 3991563.1571664159269697093632 decimal

 

[bfis108137]

btw 56 57 is still really good. I also believe that someone who uses someone elses picks has the ability to take himself out of the equation which could be good.

 

[onemwtheone]

these statistics are very bad because i was using a bad random number generator. In all actually the statistics are much better than this. The averages are much worse as would be suspected but the standard deviation is by far easier to deal with. As far as my programming ability it's not very complicated code. I would be more than happy to post it but I believe that is not for this forum. In the previous code I used the default random number generator which is not really random at all but here I used something much more advanced. As far as finding people online I think there are quite a few that get good ratings in the forums and that are tracked and are always hitting right around 58-60%. Or maybe to put things better. If someone invested their entire day everyday like it was their job to pick a few winners a day they could probably do that. As far as those that say that you can learn to control your emotions, I don't know that I agree with that. Here you have a guy who has won over time. He has proven that he knows how to stay the course and many people don't know how to do that. I say it's just like a stock advisor. It's his job and he knows how to do as long as you are careful not to get stuck with a fraud. Anyways the avg for the much improved random number generator was 3722519.52 and the stats are as follows. I added the effect that you can't lose more than you have so any loss is 0.

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[8] 0 decimal
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[982] 0 decimal
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[999] 3991563.1571664159269697093632 decimal

I don't have anything to say. I didn't even read this crap. I just wanted to blockquote this long-ass ramble.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

what ever you do , follow someone or not , please post several more of those 999 line sequences...

those are fun to read.

 

[timotinbowen]

:shocked:

 

[steaktartar]

You know I have always thought that if you could find a good handicapper and stick with him that you could make some serious loot. I mean I see some guys out there on monitored services that are picking over the course of time at 60% and that could yield some serious profit in the long haul. The only problems that I see are that first of all I think you would have to start out big. I mean you would probably have to have about 2-4 grand minimum to offset the pick fees. I know there are those that won't pay for picks but I would liken it to a stock trader that pays for stock advice and it can amount to way more than that sometimes. Has anyone stayed disciplined with one handicapper for a period of time? What percentage of your bankroll can you play and reasonably not worry about going bankrupt? Which one did you use? I mean seriously if you could take 4 g's and play one guy's 60% picks for a year and just take out the money to pay for the picks I think you could possibly be a millionaire after that year. I ran it through a computer program that I wrote and here is a list of 10000 different dollar totals for someone starting with 4k paying $500 for picks each week and betting 2% of the bankroll on each pick with an average of 3 picks a day for 1 full year. It based on using picks that come out 60% on the average but it does use a randoming sequence so it does take into account the scenario where a handicapper could have a bad week or 2 even. Just look at the numbers in the middle. The stuff on the sides is programming language. Now if you notice you could possibly lose but the amount you could lose is peanuts compared to the winnings and I bet if you dropped it down to 1% the odds would go even higher. The program uses the microsoft random engine which is known for being unreliable but even these reults are encouraging. Also note that the computer is taking into account that each puck has a 60% of being right which means at some point it's possible that the capper could go and pick like 50 wrong in a row but I don't think I have ever seen anything liek that. Well the forum wouldn't let me put the list but the average profit was $639,577,430,026.03. lol Now I ran another test with just 2000 samples so you could see the reults and I got this average $655,954,340,899.06. Similar numbers actually.

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run that by me again

 

[Doug]

Why you can't hit 60% winners (Fezzik) <hr style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Here's what 60% can do for you ( by Fezzik).

Do you know what a bettor could make hitting 60 percent of his plays? Let's assume you start with the $1,000 you were planning to buy a couch with. Instead, you decide to take a pot shot with it. You choose to play only one game per day and wager what would normally be an insane 10 percent of your bankroll on each play, laying minus-110.

A little over five years later you wind up with a record of 1,200 wins and 800 losses for a 60 percent record ATS. Guess how much money your $1,000 will have increased? It's not $10,000 and not $50,000. It's an incredible $550 billion. Yes, that’s BILLION. It sounds ridiculous, but believe me, the math completely supports it.

Now, the above analysis doesn’t prove that it cannot be done. However, it surely must place the burden of proof to those claiming they hit 60 percent of their plays. Given the above, how could they not have accumulated a large fortune? You hear the same tired excuses found below.

1) They can hit 60 percent, but are too streaky. In addition, the few bad runs wipe them out. Sorry, I'm not buying it. In the above example, all you need is a record of 1,200 wins and 800 losses. Any order of wins and losses will produce the same final results.

2) They have poor money management. Sorry, again I simply don't accept it. As my numbers show, having an ability to hit at 60 percent is akin to owning a printing press full of money. Even with some lousy money management, you should still make a small fortune (instead of a large fortune).

3) They are critical of my example since they doubt that anyone could bet millions on one game without the line moving. It's a good argument, and I concur. However, this only becomes a problem after one has clearly sailed into easy multimillionaire status.

So the next time a guy tells you he is a 60 percent handicapper, you might want to confirm he is a multimillionaire. If he isn’t, it is likely he either cannot hit 60 percent or is one horrific money manager.

It's interesting that several people offer proof of 60 percent-plus records by pointing at one-year performances in monitored contests. What they miss is that during any small sample size like this, routine variance will result in many contestants hitting 60 percent. Some will be good handicappers and some not so good. However, all will regress to the mean going forward in future years. Flip a coin 100 times and ‘heads’ will come up on 64 occasions, provided you flip enough coins along the way.

Hitting 60 percent is simply not obtainable on any large volume of bets against widely available lines. In fact, I personally feel that the better handicappers and bettors are only able to achieve a long-term win rate that is around 55 percent against market lines.

It sounds depressing, but I've got good news. With just a 53 percent win rate you can make a lot of money on your bets provided you utilize reduced vigorish, rogue lines, free half-point promotions and other betting methods.

I would LOVE to be proven wrong here and have any handicapper or bettor step to the plate and show how he is able to hit 58 to 60 percent over an extended period of time with a large volume of plays. I’m rooting for it to happen. I'm already planning my trip to the airport to pick out my personal Leer Jet!

 

[XXXylic]

My doggie goes ruff-ruff!

 

[cut-paste-hero]

these statistics are very bad because i was using a bad random number generator. In all actually the statistics are much better than this. The averages are much worse as would be suspected but the standard deviation is by far easier to deal with. As far as my programming ability it's not very complicated code. I would be more than happy to post it but I believe that is not for this forum. In the previous code I used the default random number generator which is not really random at all but here I used something much more advanced. As far as finding people online I think there are quite a few that get good ratings in the forums and that are tracked and are always hitting right around 58-60%. Or maybe to put things better. If someone invested their entire day everyday like it was their job to pick a few winners a day they could probably do that. As far as those that say that you can learn to control your emotions, I don't know that I agree with that. Here you have a guy who has won over time. He has proven that he knows how to stay the course and many people don't know how to do that. I say it's just like a stock advisor. It's his job and he knows how to do as long as you are careful not to get stuck with a fraud. Anyways the avg for the much improved random number generator was 3722519.52 and the stats are as follows. I added the effect that you can't lose more than you have so any loss is 0.

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[bfis108137]

so then I have a question for you guys. Whats with places like http://www.handicappingreviews.com and http://www.documentedhandicappers.com and www.handicappingpolice.com where it would seem the goal is to take a shady business and turn it into something more legitimate. I mean that is one of the things I really like about the internet today is that the flow of information is literally non stop and I would tend to think that if i capper was hitting 60% and it was a lie you would find that info easily and I did on one such guy although I can't remember who it was.

Here is a link to a site that claims to be looking for scammers. It is also a handicapping site but in any event you won't see any of the services on the sites above an his list. and here http://www.chokingsports.com/ or here http://www.talkgold.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1628502#post1628502 where it is in a different forum about good handicappers.

And you ask why would someone post their picks instead of becoming a millionaire. I wuld actually say that they probably failed money management like most gamblers and they find it easier to pick games when their own money isn't on the line. Or if they are a millionaire, they for sure could afford to build a quality web site and then publish their picks and make more money than they are already making.

 

[bfis108137]

Doug,

First of all you could not bet %10 long term. You could potentially get ruined unless like you say you just bet once a day. Anyways I tend to think it's like this. Could you move 10 mill on one play if you had it and you were supposed to? probably not. But if you had a capper that you had been with for a while and he gave you picks and that what was what you were supposed to do, you would probably do it. And like you said even at 55% you could probably retire rather quickly so it's not as if 60% is some magic cumber. There are lot's listed on many boards at 58% but there are a few over the years that have hit 60% if you look for them. I do not believe however that $1000 is enough since your winnings would not support your cost for your picks at least in the beginning.