Pats giving 7 -- why isn't it 8 or 9 or 10?

[hotwire]

I'm a little baffled by the line -- especially since it went down to 6.5 briefly in Vegas and has been 6.5 offshore most places. Is there a surge of knee-jerk support for underdogs that I have not picked up on? Pats have clearly better defense, beat better teams in playoffs (so far), have more experience, have better QB, have coach with a more impressive history, etc. Also, history shows games with two week layoffs beforehand have average of 6 point wider margins than those with one week layoff. I look at all this -- and even knowing that the smart boys took Carolina vs. Rams and Eagles, as I did -- and I don't get it. This spread should be 7.5 or 8.

I love extended lines at 9.5 or 10.5. Hope Barbary Coast or Imperial Palace or the big ones have such lines when I get there Friday.

Reaction?

 

[sammythesage]

Am I retarded or is it the thread starter?
He loves the pats; but in the next breath wants a bigger spread? Hello???

 

[GLJJNOVA]

The line is 7 for legit reasons. Panthers match up well vs New England. I don't see 8-9 being put up anywhere, except maybe in Boston. Since both teams play alot of close games, 6.5/7 is about right. Both teams have solid defenses and play low risk on offense.
Leaning to the Under right now.

GL on Your Play
Gary

 

[Fezzik]

Look at the box scores of all the road teams each team played.

Carolina outscored opponents by 3. NE by 1. A computer would make the line Carolina minus something if they just looked at this.

If you want to lay 7 with the team that was actually inferior away from home this year, and think you have the edge, you go right ahead. But you are delusional if you think any NE -7 wager has any value.

 

[ATX]

line should be -3.5 maybe -4

but that is not predictive

factor in the coaching advantage NE has (IMO), as well as the experience factor that NE has, and I dont see this line being as ridiculous as last year's joke.

I am taking CAR, and the ML, but not hitting it real hard. Maybe 1.5% total as compared to over 6% on last year's SB.

I have been riding dogs and their ml's in title games (all sports) for a while now, this has been a really good subset lately, and I see no reason to stop now.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Agree with the 3-4 myself as Carolina has the D to shut em down, although I have a feeling NE will cover the 7.

 

[ATX]

yep

Belichek may be worth 7 by himself

still going with the Cats, hoping for them to win the turnover battle

 

[Fezzik]

I just got a kick out of how much Belichick is worth. Last time I checked, he coached this team all year long. So his expertise is reflected in all the YTD stats and games of the Pats. To expect him to suddenly be worth much more in the big game is asking a lot.

 

[ATX]

Belichek was worth close to 7 in that game

Fox was completely outcoached

two 2pt conversions failed on terrible play calls

and 'allowing' the kicker to kick the ball ANYWHERE but down the middle of the field before the Pats game winning drive

and the timeout with about a 1:20 left, had they let the clock run, OT would have been almost a certainty

the Pats missed two very makeable FG's plus Brady's INT from the 15 or whatever

that direct snap play call on the 2pt conversion is worth 2 pts IMO, what would you say Belichek is worth after 2 superbowl wins in 3 years and a 2 loss 2004 season?

1 point?
1.5 points?

like I said before the game, I thought CAR should have been +3.5 or +4, I was also counting on CAR to win or equal the turnover battle, and Vin to have a similar performance as he did vs the Texans on that field, etc. etc. etc. And had Vin made 2 out of 3 and CAR kicked the two extra points 4 would have hit. These two teams were not very far apart in talent, the coaching edge was extremely apparent.

"betting lines" with incredible value yesterday:

2H over 17.5 +125 absolutely absurd opening line
2H CAR +4 not as absurd but still...

a large number of "betting lines" have very little to do with predicting the score

this is a market based on perception, and there are many, many lines that are so 'off' it's unreal