Pats Broncos

[JohnBlue123]

I'm done for the year but just doing sone research for shitz n gigglz. Looking at some numbers based on what I think are Peytons weaknesses. Belicheck has a good history against manning. In part due to running a 3-4 defense and scheming to take away mannings top targets. This year the defense is not good. However neither is denvers defense. The chargers threw out a hobbled ryan matthews who was ineffective at running the ball and playing keep away with the broncos.

If I'm right belicheck's game plan will mimic the formula san diego had against the broncos in december. They will pound the rock with a triple headed monster and throw short passes to grind out a time of possession game.

Key stat: since 2003 9 teams have rushed for more than 4 TDs in a game it won. They are an amazing 9-0 straight up the following week. New England found its running game against indy and just in time to make a playoff run. They are living right and aim to take brady to yet another super bowl.

Pats 31 Broncos 20

 

[s4shadow]

I'm done for the year but just doing sone research for shitz n gigglz. Looking at some numbers based on what I think are Peytons weaknesses. Belicheck has a good history against manning. In part due to running a 3-4 defense and scheming to take away mannings top targets. This year the defense is not good. However neither is denvers defense. The chargers threw out a hobbled ryan matthews who was ineffective at running the ball and playing keep away with the broncos.

If I'm right belicheck's game plan will mimic the formula san diego had against the broncos in december. They will pound the rock with a triple headed monster and throw short passes to grind out a time of possession game.

Key stat: since 2003 9 teams have rushed for more than 4 TDs in a game it won. They are an amazing 9-0 straight up the following week. New England found its running game against indy and just in time to make a playoff run. They are living right and aim to take brady to yet another super bowl.

Pats 31 Broncos 20

Loving it..picked the Pats to win it all and I'm sticking with it.

 

[Michelangelo]

Real nice research John Blue.

Do you happen to have a list of the trigger (5> TD) game? I would love to take a closer look.

Thanks man.

 

[memphis]

nice statasticels broheimers i likes it when peeps have more info the "goin to be raining tough spot for a teem playin in da rain" bla bla garbles hamneggahs thnkx for ur infos bubbalouski

 

[JohnBlue123]

I used rushing tds > 4. This is the list. I didn't corroborate it with another source. Perhaps u can and post your findings here.

20031214 Broncos23Browns20
20041031 Chiefs45Colts35
20051023 Seahawks13Cowboys10
20081130 Falcons22Chargers16
20081208 Panthers38Buccaneers23
20090103 Chargers23Colts17
20091220 Ravens31Bears7
20100103 Packers33Cardinals7
20101031 Raiders33Seahawks3
20140119 Patriots-Broncos-

 

[JohnBlue123]

Team in the first column is the one that rushed for more than 4tds the week prior.

 

[JohnBlue123]

I verified it on nfl.com

 

[Michelangelo]

OK John. I verified your info. The only thing I can't verify is if those were the only 4+ TD occurrences. But if you are sure that they are, you have indeed found a real gem. Kudos to you and your research. Great work.

9-0 straight up it is. It should be noted that three of those teams were lined as dogs (as are the Pats) and still won straight up.

 

[PatPatriot]

20031214 Broncos23Browns20
20041031 Chiefs45Colts35
20051023 Seahawks13Cowboys10
20081130 Falcons22Chargers16
20081208 Panthers38Buccaneers23
20090103 Chargers23Colts17
20091220 Ravens31Bears7
20100103 Packers33Cardinals7
20101031 Raiders33Seahawks3
20140119 Patriots-Broncos-

Wow not only did they win they kicked dick.

The only splits I'd like to know is how many of these were dogs and how may were home/away.

 

[JohnBlue123]

2 were visitors and 4 were dogs. The 2 away games they were both dogs.

There is a nix of everything.

 

[JohnBlue123]

OK John. I verified your info. The only thing I can't verify is if those were the only 4+ TD occurrences. But if you are sure that they are, you have indeed found a real gem. Kudos to you and your research. Great work.

9-0 straight up it is. It should be noted that three of those teams were lined as dogs (as are the Pats) and still won straight up.

I doubt those were the only occurrences in the history of the nfl but the database I used only contained td stats going back about 20 years. I qualified my statement saying that since 2003 this has happened.

 

[sendacash]

The problem with your argument that "The Pats found their running game against Indy" is to not factor in the strength of the opponent's run defense. Indy ranks 30th giving up 132 rushing yards per game and 27th in yards per rush attempt at 4.5. Denver ranks 5th (99.5) and 7th (3.9) in those same categories. Because New England does not really have a receiving threat who can stretch the field, Del Rio has the option to bring a safety (most likely Ihenacho who hits like a LB) into the box and play a 4-4 defense. NE not gonna be able to keep up if they are running into a formation like that.

 

[JohnBlue123]

The problem with your argument that "The Pats found their running game against Indy" is to not factor in the strength of the opponent's run defense. Indy ranks 30th giving up 132 rushing yards per game and 27th in yards per rush attempt at 4.5. Denver ranks 5th (99.5) and 7th (3.9) in those same categories. Because New England does not really have a receiving threat who can stretch the field, Del Rio has the option to bring a safety (most likely Ihenacho who hits like a LB) into the box and play a 4-4 defense. NE not gonna be able to keep up if they are running into a formation like that.

The problem with your argument is that Denver doesn't really have a good run defense. The only reason they are ranked high on run defense category is because most opponents abandon the run when they are down by 3 tds against Peyton manning. Denver's defense is not made up of run stuffing goal line stand type of players like the 49ers. They just benefit from playing opponents who have to be one dimensional against them.

Don't be fooled by the ranking. Denver's defense is NOT good.

 

[JohnBlue123]

With chris harris out at cb in already porous secondary I doubt del Rio loads the box. The secondary is going to need as much help as it can get.

 

[sendacash]

Denver defense gives up 3.9 ypr against teams that average 4.3. NE gives up 4.4 ypr vs teams that average 4.0. I think Denver's run D stats are good because they like to play man coverage. NE is smart and knows this and so they will try to run against Nickel packages. The DT on NE I'm hearing about right now is a guy Denver traded away mid-season. Mankins vs Pot Roast should be interesting

 

[sendacash]

Here's some comments from former Broncos QB Jake Plummer thinking that the key will be establishing a run game with Moreno, which leads to play action, which leads to sorrow:

Get running back Knowshon Moreno going. Moreno had a career-best 224 yards rushing in the Broncos' Nov. 24 loss to the Patriots on a career-high 37 carries. The Broncos rushed for 280 yards overall, working almost exclusively out of a three-wide receiver set.

"I think at times Knowshon can quite possibly be the MVP of that offense in the kind of situations you get in the playoffs," Plummer said. "Peyton's going to throw it in the red zone, he's going to get his touchdowns, but Knowshon is huge for them to keep things going.

"Knowshon is so good in the passing game, as a blocker in there and as a receiver, but if they get Knowshon going, then they have play-action, it keeps the rush off Peyton and when Peyton has the option of play-action, defenses, man, they don't know what to do with that offense then. Because they can come at you in the same action up front, run or pass, and Peyton sees those guys on defense coming up, he's going over the top."

 

[JohnBlue123]

I think both teams have the players on offense to win. To me it comes down to coaching. Who uses them better.

 

[PatPatriot]

With Harris out for Denver, I think the Pats will pass early to open up the run. Pats will be able to pass or run.
Pats short on receivers but keep your eye on Austin Collie. Only 6 catches all year but they were all clutch.
The other factor is Shane Vareen. Blount will not be the focus player Sunday.
Pats are 7-0 against Jack Del Rio defenses also.

The Pats secondary is the healthiest its been all year. Also a potential linebacker is beginning to emerge on Pats linebacker crew. Jamie Collins. He'll be important in coverage tommorow. If Pats can keep Denver under 30 points they'll win and I think they can.

 

[SerfCap]

My concern for the Patriots is that I don't see how they're going to score in the redzone from the 5 yard line and back.

 

[juice9]

My concern for the Patriots is that I don't see how they're going to score in the redzone from the 5 yard line and back.

Play action , run the ball, pass? Are you saying Denvers D is a lock in the redzone?