It really comes down to the Seahawks are superior on both sides of the ball. Combine all these factors, and all stats and writeups on DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders [their website] and it’s more than enough for me to pick the Seahawks to win. Seahawks 27, Patriots 17.
Sportsbooks try to even out the money—a practice known as "balancing the book"—to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome by collecting the vigorish (fee) from the losing side, rather than betting against customers. By moving lines based on betting volume, they encourage action on both sides, aiming for 50/50 splits to minimize risk and secure a 4.5%–10% hold.
My betting system alters a win/loss records for the year. I base my record by my bank-roll. bankroll system I use is my money management. My Strategy is I do not bet same amount on each game. I press bets sometimes and play money line bets. Why I think win-loss record is overrated because in my option most gamblers bet sports do not bet the same on every game. If its contest or pools that's justified with a rating. My goal is at end of season to have 3x my bankroll,or hoping more? /LOL !!
Using some sort of recent performance is essential to creating a more accurate line than the oddsmakers and the marketplace. If you want to handicap using more long term, year to year trends, it is likely you need predictive stats that don't involve things like personnel changes. This takes a significant amount of creative thinking as well as an understanding of the marketplace. Many successful bettors use a weighted formula of past performance and recent performance together to determine where team has been, is currently, and, most importantly where it is likely to headed. There are many ways to skin a cat, consider it knowledge for the esoteric. Hell, you can successfully develop a handicapping model using only mistakes, like fumbles, etc. if you understand the relationships on the field and, once again, the marketplace.
I have had over 50 that follow me on my posts on Rx.. Who would like to know about the Late Bob Martin money management system I use. Many e-mails from guests and members requests!! My Mentor teaches me this theory and other management money skills in early 80s at the little Ceasar sports book on strip, block past the tropicana hotel and across from tower of pizza. So, I will try to best explain this system. You have to excuse the typing and some errors!!!
Press win on point spreads is worth +3 game win and your original investment [ Nickel bets are always pressed [ If you don't press Nickel bets [ $500] or even dollar bets [$100} you don't win on short end of money management [ Late Bob Martin [ My Mentor teaches me this theory and other management money skills. This is not really a completed system, so you have to study the concept
I use press money line bets when I am laying money to plus money line bet [ If I like the action in following week Monday & Thursday night games included. If you don't press laying money [-] line bets to plus press money line bets the lay will kill you if you lose to many bets on the lay. You are actually hedging money line against the point spread. Betting point spread with money line on same game is must!!!
Just One or two money lines a week with your point spread bet. Keep one money line bet you won as hold card for following week. My betting style press one time on 2nd win and will go back to a Original money line bet after the press Win or Lose... Use the win on money line you bet as your hold card, use the money on following week bet all back called a press on the money line choose. Remember when you press you are betting minus -money line that you won hedging the point spread line on a team, or plus + money line that you won to a chalk bet.
Here is example for you let's say you bet 3 games and one of your bets is a money line bet [ you have to bet at least one money line week that choose [ Monday & Thursday night games included] with your three games that you bet. let's say you won Falcons on chalk bet money line you won as minus $- 140. is a press [ also can be used if you won a plus +bet on your original bet use started with] Well if you do the math, you can see how much money you won on a press. You can also press point spread to money lines & Point spreads to point spreads [ Bob Martin strategy]
You can't win? if you don't press once. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction, with the same assumption of each about its probability to win. Remember, my method is not risking adversary [risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs], and considerable risk is assumed when you choose my method of predictions & Bet. As with any gambling, or investing, there is always risk whether it’s systemic or otherwise.
Press win on point spreads is worth +3 game win and your original investment [ Nickel bets are always pressed [ If you don't press Nickel bets [ $500] or even dollar bets [$100} you don't win on short end of money management [ Late Bob Martin [ My Mentor teaches me this theory and other management money skills. This is not really a completed system, so you have to study the concept
I use press money line bets when I am laying money to plus money line bet [ If I like the action in following week Monday & Thursday night games included. If you don't press laying money [-] line bets to plus press money line bets the lay will kill you if you lose to many bets on the lay. You are actually hedging money line against the point spread. Betting point spread with money line on same game is must!!!
Just One or two money lines a week with your point spread bet. Keep one money line bet you won as hold card for following week. My betting style press one time on 2nd win and will go back to a Original money line bet after the press Win or Lose... Use the win on money line you bet as your hold card, use the money on following week bet all back called a press on the money line choose. Remember when you press you are betting minus -money line that you won hedging the point spread line on a team, or plus + money line that you won to a chalk bet.
Here is example for you let's say you bet 3 games and one of your bets is a money line bet [ you have to bet at least one money line week that choose [ Monday & Thursday night games included] with your three games that you bet. let's say you won Falcons on chalk bet money line you won as minus $- 140. is a press [ also can be used if you won a plus +bet on your original bet use started with] Well if you do the math, you can see how much money you won on a press. You can also press point spread to money lines & Point spreads to point spreads [ Bob Martin strategy]
You can't win? if you don't press once. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction, with the same assumption of each about its probability to win. Remember, my method is not risking adversary [risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs], and considerable risk is assumed when you choose my method of predictions & Bet. As with any gambling, or investing, there is always risk whether it’s systemic or otherwise.
I know this aspect of the books balancing the sides, but it seems that in Super Bowls (unlike other football games), the lines hardly budge. Even in the AFC and NFC Championship games there has been movement over the past many years. Just wondering if books are protecting themselves against whale bets, or just the volume is so large.
Oh, and thanks for your posts on all your NFL games. Much appreciated.
EAST | W | L | T | Pct | PF | PA | Home | Away | Div | Conf | NFC |
| New England Patriots | 14 | 3 | 0 | .824 | 490 | 320 | 6-3-0 | 8-0-0 | 5-1-0 | 9-3-0 | 5-0-0 |
WEST | W | L | T | Pct | PF | PA | Home | Away | Div | Conf | AFC |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14 | 3 | 0 | .824 | 483 | 292 | 6-2-0 | 8-1-0 | 4-2-0 | 9-3-0 | 5-0-0 |
Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper for DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Their Exclusive Ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads with Trends & Statistics and Indicators.
The Patriots have done an admirable job in turning their fortunes around and I think this is the start of good times ahead. Drake Maye and the offense should re-awaken out of the snow, but they face a formidable foe in Seattle's defense. The New England defense will make it difficult, but I just think Seattle are the more complete team with more experience.
The Seahawks can also score points with Sam Darnold looking to write an NFL fairytale. With him being helped by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker, I see a win for a Seahawks team gathering up a head of steam. If Sam Darnold can have a game even close to his NFC Championship Game performance and take care of the ball, this will be over early. I think we've got a great matchup on our hands. Two great defenses and two great offenses, but where I think it is won or lost is the fact the Seattle defense is so elite they will make it too hard for the Patriots to keep up with Sam Darnold and what he has the Seahawks offense doing.
They will contain Drake Maye enough that he will not be able to compete with what Sam Darnold and his offense can do. I think it's Seattle's turn to lift the Lombardi Trophy. They showed creativity and great execution offensively against the Rams, and I think they can take advantage of a leaky Patriots red zone defense. And of course, the dark side defense will make life difficult on Drake Maye and company. Seattle wins by 8 points or more!!!!!
The Patriots have done an admirable job in turning their fortunes around and I think this is the start of good times ahead. Drake Maye and the offense should re-awaken out of the snow, but they face a formidable foe in Seattle's defense. The New England defense will make it difficult, but I just think Seattle are the more complete team with more experience.
The Seahawks can also score points with Sam Darnold looking to write an NFL fairytale. With him being helped by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker, I see a win for a Seahawks team gathering up a head of steam. If Sam Darnold can have a game even close to his NFC Championship Game performance and take care of the ball, this will be over early. I think we've got a great matchup on our hands. Two great defenses and two great offenses, but where I think it is won or lost is the fact the Seattle defense is so elite they will make it too hard for the Patriots to keep up with Sam Darnold and what he has the Seahawks offense doing.
They will contain Drake Maye enough that he will not be able to compete with what Sam Darnold and his offense can do. I think it's Seattle's turn to lift the Lombardi Trophy. They showed creativity and great execution offensively against the Rams, and I think they can take advantage of a leaky Patriots red zone defense. And of course, the dark side defense will make life difficult on Drake Maye and company. Seattle wins by 8 points or more!!!!!
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Why not bet the spread instead of the moneyline if they win by 8 or more. Just curious.
