Patriots' vs Seahawks' Superbowl 2026 [DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders]

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

**Handicapping information copied & pasted from Internet Sports Media. B&Rs Expert Consensus rating, with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~Jerry Nyles NFL Capper, Mike Stewart NFL Capper, Sports Analyst Robert Vinaltti, Harold Johnson NFL Analyst, Kyle Davis NFL Capper, Sam Trever NFL Capper, Steve Davis NFL Analyst, Sal Siciliano ,NFL Capper, Harvey DeCarlo NFL Capper Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper, There Exclusive Ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT ~ Not Responsible for typing errors. Bets Made Wednesday Morning at William Hill Sports Book

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Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper, with the DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~His Exclusive Rating~

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Simply put, the Seahawks are a football juggernaut, finishing the year as the top team by both total and defensive DVOA. Five teams have accomplished that feat over the past 30 years and four have won the Super Bowl. Finally since 2023, Mike MacDonald's defense is 6-0 versus quarterbacks 24 or younger - Drake Maye is attempting to become the youngest starter to win the Super Bowl at just 23. MacDonald's teams have allowed just one touchdown while forcing eight interceptions and racking up 22 sacks. I just don’t think Drake Maye has been good enough in these playoffs to believe he’s going to be able to keep pace while trying to navigate a Seattle defense that has bite at every level.

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Mike Vrabel has done a masterful coaching job to pull this team to the Super Bowl, but New England’s offense won’t be enough in this game. The Patriots’ relatively soft path to the Super Bowl is a fair criticism, and it looms large here. Seattle is undoubtedly the more complete team, with clear advantages on both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold seems ready for this moment after showing up big in the NFC title game. New England should generate some offense, but defensively, they won’t keep pace.

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While the Patriots' defense provides a path to victory, the consensus favors the Seahawks' superior defensive pressure and more balanced offensive weapons to win Seattle's elite defenses clear the Patriots in every major metric, and while New England has played better defense in the postseason, all three of those games have come against less than stellar offensive quads.

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Seattle proved its mettle on the big stage against a tough opponent in Los Angeles on an off day for its defense (479 total yards allowed). New England is well-coached with a top quarterback, but it just doesn't have the firepower on either side of the ball to hold up against what the Seahawks have assembled. I like the Seahawks defense to dominate this contest and bring a second Super Bowl title to Seattle. Of my option the money line is way to bet.

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Harold Johnson NFL Analyst with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

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Seattle WRs vs. Patriots Secondary
JSN + Diggs + Kupp create matchup nightmares.
Patriots’ secondary is disciplined but lacks elite man‑coverage depth.
Advantage: Seattle (major)

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Drake Maye vs. Seattle’s disguised coverages
Macdonald’s defense thrives on post‑snap rotation.
Maye has been excellent vs. pressure but less tested vs. elite disguise.
Advantage: Seattle.

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Patriots O‑Line vs. Seahawks Pass Rush
New England’s biggest vulnerability.
Seattle’s front is deep, fast, and scheme‑versatile.
Advantage: Slight Seattle

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Coaching: Vrabel vs. Macdonald
Both are second‑year coaches—first time ever in a Super Bowl.
Vrabel is the better in‑game adjuster; Macdonald has the better roster.
Advantage: Even

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​ Seattle Seahawks ​	-225​	-4.5​	O 46​
​ New England Patriots ​	+195​	+ 4 .5​	U 46​
Moneyline Movements: 14 Spread Movements: 1 Total Points Movements: 1	DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ​	William Hill Sportsbook Edge +3.69%​
Seattle Seahawks Win Probability: 70.00% New England Patriots Win Probability: 30.00%

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My Bet Money Line Seattle Seahawks-$225 X 3 [with the press & $100 units]

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

HarryTheHat [ Harry Danerian] associate membership with the DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Writes!!!

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Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has battled a tumult of elite defenses in the postseason, and his warts have begun to show. Sure, Maye took on some of the best defenses in the sport in the Chargers, Texans and Broncos, and won. But he was hardly clean with the football, taking 15 sacks, and coughing up six turnovers. He'll have to be far better against Seattle's top-ranked defense for the Patriots to have a chance to win. The Pats faced one of the easiest paths to the Super Bowl in NFL history, battling opponents with just a .391 winning percentage this season. Before taking on a Chargers team missing both of their starting tackles, a Texans squad without top offensive weapon Nico Collins, and the Broncos without their starting quarterback. Defeating the battle-hardened Seahawks will be a tall task. On the other side of the field, Seattle enters the Super Bowl on a nine-game winning streak and are 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I haven't decided yet on these prop bets yet?

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Below are several recommended prop bets for the game, including popular picks for player performance:

• Kenneth Walker III Under 74.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
• Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-122)
• Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Interceptions (-142)
• Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
• Kayshon Boutte Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+310)

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

The Big Question? by NFL Analyst Robert Vinaltti with the DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

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Question will be whether Darnold can maintain this improvement against a much stingier defense. Entering the Divisional Round, the 49ers ranked 24th in NFL Pro's defensive efficiency with pressure. Entering the NFC Championship, the Rams ranked 16th. Even despite Darnold's previous struggles in this category, those matchups translated to a one-star 'Hawks advantage and a "no advantage" wash, respectively.

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Mike Vrabel's Patriots unit ranks fifth in that metric and consequently holds a three-star NFL Pro's advantage over Seattle entering the Super Bowl. Including the playoffs, New England has allowed just four TDs (with four INTs) with pressure, as well as just 5.2 yards per attempt and a 59.0 passer rating. Darnold has a tall task ahead … but might have grown enough this year to accomplish it. Pats' strongest edge is outside the tackles, where they're ranked eighth on defense and the Seahawks are ranked 30th on offense.

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Considering Walker has averaged a whopping 7.2 yards per carry inside the tackles since Week 16 (and "just" 4.5 yards per carry outside), expect to see Seattle work the middle of the line in the run game. Another interesting wrinkle: New England has used light boxes at the second-highest rate in the NFL (45.3%) and Seattle is ranked 23rd in NFL Pro efficiency against light boxes. Vrabel and Co. will likely use six or fewer defenders in the box at a particularly high rate in Super Bowl LX.

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From a speed standpoint Super Bowls especially close ones often come down to special teams and game-breaking plays, and these two returners are among the most dangerous game-breakers in the league. Jones logged the third-most punt returns of 15+ miles per hour including the playoffs (11) and cracked a max speed of 20+ miles per hour twice (both touchdowns). Similarly, Shaheed cracked 20+ miles per hour twice as well (including his 100-yard touchdown in Week 14) and his average top speed on kick returns (17.5 mph) was third highest among players with at least 15 returns. With my further analysis with the group, Money line bet on the Seahawks winning game straight up is the bet. Seahawks-$230 to win a $100.

 

[Green17]

Thank you for all of this detailed breakdown information. GL as always. Appreciate you!

 

[skoda]

NE “D” & Seattle "D" under in 1st half........

Both Head Coach’s are Defensive coordinator’s and players! NE “D” allowed 21 or more points just 4x’s, beat Bills 23-20 lost 30-35.... Both 12-5 ATS

10 of 34 games of both went over 50 average O/U looks to be

Records of Teams played....

NE 107-131
SE 117-121

I haven't decided yet on these prop bets yet? any help? .....Which prop bet do you guys like?

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Below are several recommended prop bets for the game, including popular picks for player performance:

• Kenneth Walker III Under 74.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
• Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-122)
• Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Interceptions (-142)
• Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
• Kayshon Boutte Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+310)

N.E. "D" will pressure Darnold over interceptions... You asked so...

Bonus.... Before Kickoff

The average time to sing the national anthem (specifically "The Star-Spangled Banner") is typically around 1 minute and 30 seconds to 1 minute and 59 seconds. More specifically, the average length before Super Bowls since 1991 is approximately 1 minute and 56 seconds. However, the duration can vary depending on the singer's style and performance context.

Wife is a musician and says under in National Anthem no Caterwauling....

Player Props point to Seattle Check-out 1st quarter TT

Final Prediction

27-19......

Lastly Team Kicking Points..

Seattle 8 1/2
Patriot 6 1/2

my 2 cents HTH your info helped me put my thoughts... Good Luck Great Season!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Mike Stewart NFL Capper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

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Kenneth Walker's rushing + receiving yardage total of 100.5 in Super Bowl 60. Walkers crossed this line in four of his past five games and will dominate touches in the backfield with running mate Zach Charbonnet out of action. The Michigan State product is a workhorse, and consistently creates positive plays out of thin air, as he did by cutting around three Rams to score in the NFC Championship game. Walker's seen at least 20 touches in every game since Charbonnet went down, and will be the catalyst behind a Seahawks Super Bowl victory. Walker always makes the most of his opportunities, averaging three yards per carry after this season, and is one of the NFL's most explosive back. He ranked third in runs of 15 or more yards this season (18), was sixth in evaded tackles (80), and led the league in evaded tackles per touch at a 31.7% rate. With the threat of Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and the speed of Rasheed Shaheed lined up outside, the Patriots have little hope of stopping Walker. Chalk one up for the hawk's big time!!!!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Introduction by HarryTheHat [ Harry Danerian]

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I just like to say thank all 2000+ members and visitors looking at my treads that I post!!! Also, personal friends that are not members but guests. They could care less about the replies and comments by members. They are more interested in my write ups and my analysis and with DVANX 25 group and there analysis. They might agree with my picks and bets or they might not. ~It's always your call~.

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My Strategy based on Bob Martins money management I do not bet same amount on each game. When I pick game to bet buying hook or full point I automatedly press money line bet with the point spread bet with a hedge. Depending on If the line happens to be a plus, I look at the plus money if its enough to cover the point spread or more, I bet but not press. How much you bet on game is your business not mine. How much I bet is my business also. Its all about winning!!!! This formula I use with models is heavily Depending on DVANX 25 group and their analysis which I relate to you, I am also associate member.

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Thank You Harry Danerian[ HarryTheHat ] !!!!!! Let's All Just Win!!!

 

[LonghornMM]

Always appreciate your insight and plays, Harry. So, to confirm, your Super Bowl play is on Seattle ML?

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Always appreciate your insight and plays, Harry. So, to confirm, your Super Bowl play is on Seattle ML?

My Bet Money Line Seattle Seahawks-$225 X 5 [with the press & $100 units] This is a big X factor in this match-up> Kenneth Walker always makes the most of his opportunities, averaging three yards per carry after this season, and is one of the NFL's most explosive back. He ranked third in runs of 15 or more yards this season (18), was sixth in evaded tackles (80), and led the league in evaded tackles per touch at a 31.7% rate. With the threat of Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and the speed of Rasheed Shaheed lined up outside, the Patriots have little hope of stopping Walker.

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Harold Johnson NFL Analyst with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

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Seattle WRs vs. Patriots Secondary
JSN + Diggs + Kupp create matchup nightmares.
Patriots’ secondary is disciplined but lacks elite man‑coverage depth.
Advantage: Seattle (major)

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Drake Maye vs. Seattle’s disguised coverages
Macdonald’s defense thrives on post‑snap rotation.
Maye has been excellent vs. pressure but less tested vs. elite disguise.
Advantage: Seattle.

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Patriots O‑Line vs. Seahawks Pass Rush
New England’s biggest vuln.e>rability.
Seattle’s front is deep, fast, and scheme‑versatile.
Advantage: Slight Seattle

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Coaching: Vrabel vs. Macdonald
Both are second‑year coaches—first time ever in a Super Bowl.
Vrabel is the better in‑game adjuster; Macdonald has the better roster.
Advantage: Even

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Seattle proved its mettle on the big stage against a tough opponent in Los Angeles on an off day for its defense (479 total yards allowed). New England is well-coached with a top quarterback, but it just doesn't have the firepower on either side of the ball to hold up against what the Seahawks have assembled. I like the Seahawks defense to dominate this contest and bring a second Super Bowl title to Seattle.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

B&Rs Expert Analyst Handicapper Rating by Jerry Nyles Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders writes on their web site.

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The Patriots haven’t allowed 20 or more points since Week 16, but they’ve also faced many offenses with significant weak points in that span. The key number to this game is 20 points. New England is 11-0 when allowing fewer than 20 points. Seattle is 14-1 when scoring 20 or more points. The Seahawks offense does not have those weaknesses. It’s really hard to go against the Darnold narrative, but JSN has been stellar all year, and I’m having flashbacks to his 347-yard showing in the Rose Bowl four years ago. Seattle also has a powerhouse defense. I would’ve picked the Rams if they won, so it’s clear how I perceive Seattle heading up against New England. It really comes down to the Seahawks are superior on both sides of the ball. Combine all these factors, and all stats and writeups on DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders [their website] and it’s more than enough for me to pick the Seahawks to win. Seahawks 27, Patriots 17.

 

[uscmd]

HtH.....Great stuff. I see Sea winning by 7+, 7-10. Sea has athletes all over the field. Long, fast, guys that like to hit. NE is good, but I think they'll be even better in the next few years.

Be well Harry, looking forward to your write ups next year. BOL to you.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Thank You uscmd!!! DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders in my option 25 best handicappers in country. DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders use recent performance is essential to creating a more accurate line than the oddsmakers and the marketplace. If you want to handicap using more long term, year to year trends, it is likely you need predictive stats that don't involve things like personnel changes. This takes a significant amount of creative thinking as well as an understanding of the marketplace. The Patriots haven’t allowed 20 or more points since Week 16, but they’ve also faced many offenses with significant weak points in that span. The key number to this game is 20 points. New England is 11-0 when allowing fewer than 20 points. Seattle is 14-1 when scoring 20 or more points. The Seahawks offense does not have those weaknesses. It’s really hard to go against the Darnold narrative, but JSN has been stellar all year, and I’m having flashbacks to his 347-yard showing in the Rose Bowl four years ago. Seattle also has a powerhouse defense. I would’ve picked the Rams if they won, so it’s clear how I perceive Seattle heading up against New England. It really comes down to me thinking the Seahawks are superior on both sides of the ball. Combine these factors, and it’s more than enough for me to pick the Seahawks to win. Seahawks 27, Patriots 17

 

[Swany]

Hey Harry, thanks for all your time and effort sharing with us, your NFL handicapping expertise.

Not since the "one and only" the great architect of the "NFL outlaw line" the late Bob Martin have we been fortunate enough to receive such valuable information every week.

Thanks again Harry and
The very best to you in all your ventures to come.

Keep Well, your old friend,
Swany

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Hey Harry, thanks for all your time and effort sharing with us, your NFL handicapping expertise.

Not since the "one and only" the great architect of the "NFL outlaw line" the late Bob Martin have we been fortunate enough to receive such valuable information every week.

Thanks again Harry and
The very best to you in all your ventures to come.

Keep Well, your old friend,
Swany

I worked for Bob Martin in the sports book and learned from him management money skills in the late 70s early 80s at the little Ceasar sports book on strip, block past the tropicana hotel and across from tower of pizza. Ever cab drivers who starts the morning shift stopped at sports book. $1.00 huge cinnamon rolls and all the coffee you can drink, fill up your go cup. Bob Martin taught me, If I remember correctly that a good bookie has to see the entire picture, He will say there’s always guys out there who know more than you get to know him, you have to know what they think, too. Martin’s advantage is that he knew everybody from all over the country including every big bettor and every big bookmaker. He knew what number would attract two-way action.” Bob Martin died on March 7, 2001, at the age of 82 in New York City where I attended the funeral.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I guess, I am doing something right, I got know the best handicappers not bookmakers knowing what they think!!!! in country the DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Swany and thanks for your reply!!

 

[LuckysBoy]

Harry, Thanks for posting again this year.You put up a lot of Winners. That brings back memories. Little Caesars was always my first stop on my trips to Vegas from San Diego.Don t think they had more than 5 or 6 BJ tables but Little Caesars, Stardust and I think LV club booked the most sports bets in Vegas.Eugene Mayday a legend in booking sports owned it, I believe sometime in the 90s it was sold and the area was redeveloped. THe 80s and 90s were Great comping decades in Vegas. I would get everything comped at several places, knowadays you have to be giving a lot of action just to get a free buffet. lol, not like it was in the old days. GL in SB

 

[jchooker]

GL HH NE hasnt scored shit last couple games?? May open er up

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

LuckysBoy NFL point spread oddsmakers are professional linemakers working for major casino sportsbooks in Las Vegas (e.g., South Point, Circa, BetMGM) and, increasingly, for legal online sports betting companies and offshore books. They use data analysis, power rankings, and betting action to set lines, often influenced heavily by "sharp" professional bettors. Superbowl odds makers opened at Seattle -5, The bookmakers across country put a hook on it -4 1/2 it makes no sense to me? Yes, 5 is generally considered a "dead number" in NFL point spread betting. A dead number is a margin of victory that occurs relatively rarely compared to key numbers like 3 or 7, making it a less critical number for bettors to land on or avoid. NFL games end with a 5-point margin only a little over 3% of the time. This tells me 6-point game prediction swing!!! Money line is the edge with Seattle.

 

[Loves2kickass]

LuckysBoy NFL point spread oddsmakers are professional linemakers working for major casino sportsbooks in Las Vegas (e.g., South Point, Circa, BetMGM) and, increasingly, for legal online sports betting companies and offshore books. They use data analysis, power rankings, and betting action to set lines, often influenced heavily by "sharp" professional bettors. Superbowl odds makers opened at Seattle -5, The bookmakers across country put a hook on it -4 1/2 it makes no sense to me? Yes, 5 is generally considered a "dead number" in NFL point spread betting. A dead number is a margin of victory that occurs relatively rarely compared to key numbers like 3 or 7, making it a less critical number for bettors to land on or avoid. NFL games end with a 5-point margin only a little over 3% of the time. This tells me 6-point game prediction swing!!! Money line is the edge with Seattle.

5 is no longer a "dead" number. Key number? No, but not a dead number.