I have no opinion on this article.
Just posting it for others to read if they don't have Insider.
[h=1]Patriots could run past Broncos[/h][h=3]The QBs are great, but it's the running game that could decide AFC title[/h]By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider
In a quarterback-driven league, the winners of all four of this past weekend's divisional-round matchups ran the ball more effectively than their opponents. Is that a coincidence? I don't think so. But perhaps most surprising was the fact that the Denver Broncos shut down the San Diego Chargers' run game.
Can the Broncos' rush defense keep that up at home next week in the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots? I have serious doubts. Here are three key reasons.
1. The Chargers' running game was not at full strength.
The Chargers' best runner, Ryan Mathews, was far from 100 percent healthy for Sunday's game and didn't even play in the second half. Mathews played a pivotal role in the Chargers' late-season surge and led the NFL in rushing after Week 11. Their offense simply isn't the same without him, as he has become a true workhorse, and few backs in the league are as talented.
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Mathews' inability to play at full strength clearly helped the Broncos' D. Danny Woodhead is a fine specialty player but does not even resemble an every-down back. Ronnie Brown is a quality backup who does everything well but isn't close to being a difference-maker. The Chargers produced just 55 rushing yards from their running backs Sunday despite trying to feature their run game for the majority of the contest.
The Broncos certainly deserve some credit for this, and one of the underrated storylines of Denver's season is that its run defense has been quite good. Only six teams were better in terms of yards per carry allowed. But Denver fans shouldn't overreact to the success of the Broncos' defense against the Chargers' running game.
2. The Broncos are missing key personnel.
Two of the Broncos' best players against the run, Von Miller and Kevin Vickerson, are out for this upcoming contest. Terrance Knighton stood out against San Diego as a force in the middle, as he has all season, and this defensive front won Sunday with brute force rather than scheme, but New England's offensive front is far superior to San Diego's and extremely strong on the left side of the line. The Patriots have much better personnel up front than Denver does on defense. They are also very timely with their run calls, will exploit a weakness without mercy and can run very effectively out of a wide variety of formations and personnel groupings -- as well as when they go up-tempo. This is an extremely difficult rushing offense to prepare for.
The Broncos' secondary is also in flux, as Chris Harris, maybe the Broncos' best defensive back, and Duke Ihenacho both went down Sunday with injuries. After Harris left the game, the Broncos had no answer for Keenan Allen, and Quentin Jammer was consistently exploited in coverage. This is important because the Patriots might force Denver into playing more of its sub-package defense by employing a large dose of three-receiver sets (although it's worth noting that the Patriots don't have an outside threat comparable to Allen) and possibly running against that smaller grouping while spreading the field horizontally to open rushing lanes, a tactic at which New England excels. In fact, against the Chargers, Denver used as many as seven defensive backs on the field at once before Harris went down.
Or, the Patriots could take the opposite approach and use a sixth offensive lineman to pair with Michael Hoomanawanui, who is more or less an offensive lineman in his own right, to go with one wide receiver, a fullback and a massive runner like LeGarrette Blount. That is an awful lot of sheer mass to throw at a defense, especially in an environment like Denver that is lacking in oxygen. The Broncos' run defense is fundamentally sound, but it is light on high-quality personnel right now, and against a rushing attack like New England's, it doesn't quite stack up across the board.
3. New England's rushing game is clicking.
The Broncos' run defense is clearly better than Indianapolis', but we can't ignore the 234 rushing yards that New England accumulated on Saturday night with its great line and trio of backs simply dominating the game. I don't get what Pats coach Bill Belichick sees in Blount other than his reliability compared to the fumble-prone Stevan Ridley, but he is looking better with every game, with very light feet for such a big, powerful runner. He averaged 6.9 yards per rush on his 24 carries against the Colts. Ridley and Shane Vereen are also very talented and highly effective in their roles.
The Patriots' rushing attack is far superior now to what it was when these teams met in the regular season, and Blount took just two snaps in that meeting. In fact, the run game is so strong that it compensates for the lack of elite pass-catching weapons in this offense after Rob Gronkowski's injury. And Tom Brady can make up for any deficiencies in the passing game. The Pats can play any way they want, adjusting based on how their opponent is playing them -- it's pretty amazing how they reinvent themselves year to year based on personnel.
Expect the Patriots to have success on the ground against the Denver defense and go up-tempo often the way the Chargers did to finish Sunday's game. The Broncos likely will need to score more than 24 points, in what could possibly be poor weather, to defeat Brady (who is a better poor-weather passer than Peyton Manning) and the Pats. Most of the talk this week understandably will be about another huge matchup between two of the best quarterbacks to play this game, but the team that runs the ball with more success likely will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Just posting it for others to read if they don't have Insider.
[h=1]Patriots could run past Broncos[/h][h=3]The QBs are great, but it's the running game that could decide AFC title[/h]By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider
In a quarterback-driven league, the winners of all four of this past weekend's divisional-round matchups ran the ball more effectively than their opponents. Is that a coincidence? I don't think so. But perhaps most surprising was the fact that the Denver Broncos shut down the San Diego Chargers' run game.
Can the Broncos' rush defense keep that up at home next week in the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots? I have serious doubts. Here are three key reasons.
1. The Chargers' running game was not at full strength.
The Chargers' best runner, Ryan Mathews, was far from 100 percent healthy for Sunday's game and didn't even play in the second half. Mathews played a pivotal role in the Chargers' late-season surge and led the NFL in rushing after Week 11. Their offense simply isn't the same without him, as he has become a true workhorse, and few backs in the league are as talented.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Mathews' inability to play at full strength clearly helped the Broncos' D. Danny Woodhead is a fine specialty player but does not even resemble an every-down back. Ronnie Brown is a quality backup who does everything well but isn't close to being a difference-maker. The Chargers produced just 55 rushing yards from their running backs Sunday despite trying to feature their run game for the majority of the contest.
The Broncos certainly deserve some credit for this, and one of the underrated storylines of Denver's season is that its run defense has been quite good. Only six teams were better in terms of yards per carry allowed. But Denver fans shouldn't overreact to the success of the Broncos' defense against the Chargers' running game.
2. The Broncos are missing key personnel.
Two of the Broncos' best players against the run, Von Miller and Kevin Vickerson, are out for this upcoming contest. Terrance Knighton stood out against San Diego as a force in the middle, as he has all season, and this defensive front won Sunday with brute force rather than scheme, but New England's offensive front is far superior to San Diego's and extremely strong on the left side of the line. The Patriots have much better personnel up front than Denver does on defense. They are also very timely with their run calls, will exploit a weakness without mercy and can run very effectively out of a wide variety of formations and personnel groupings -- as well as when they go up-tempo. This is an extremely difficult rushing offense to prepare for.
The Broncos' secondary is also in flux, as Chris Harris, maybe the Broncos' best defensive back, and Duke Ihenacho both went down Sunday with injuries. After Harris left the game, the Broncos had no answer for Keenan Allen, and Quentin Jammer was consistently exploited in coverage. This is important because the Patriots might force Denver into playing more of its sub-package defense by employing a large dose of three-receiver sets (although it's worth noting that the Patriots don't have an outside threat comparable to Allen) and possibly running against that smaller grouping while spreading the field horizontally to open rushing lanes, a tactic at which New England excels. In fact, against the Chargers, Denver used as many as seven defensive backs on the field at once before Harris went down.
Or, the Patriots could take the opposite approach and use a sixth offensive lineman to pair with Michael Hoomanawanui, who is more or less an offensive lineman in his own right, to go with one wide receiver, a fullback and a massive runner like LeGarrette Blount. That is an awful lot of sheer mass to throw at a defense, especially in an environment like Denver that is lacking in oxygen. The Broncos' run defense is fundamentally sound, but it is light on high-quality personnel right now, and against a rushing attack like New England's, it doesn't quite stack up across the board.
3. New England's rushing game is clicking.
The Broncos' run defense is clearly better than Indianapolis', but we can't ignore the 234 rushing yards that New England accumulated on Saturday night with its great line and trio of backs simply dominating the game. I don't get what Pats coach Bill Belichick sees in Blount other than his reliability compared to the fumble-prone Stevan Ridley, but he is looking better with every game, with very light feet for such a big, powerful runner. He averaged 6.9 yards per rush on his 24 carries against the Colts. Ridley and Shane Vereen are also very talented and highly effective in their roles.
The Patriots' rushing attack is far superior now to what it was when these teams met in the regular season, and Blount took just two snaps in that meeting. In fact, the run game is so strong that it compensates for the lack of elite pass-catching weapons in this offense after Rob Gronkowski's injury. And Tom Brady can make up for any deficiencies in the passing game. The Pats can play any way they want, adjusting based on how their opponent is playing them -- it's pretty amazing how they reinvent themselves year to year based on personnel.
Expect the Patriots to have success on the ground against the Denver defense and go up-tempo often the way the Chargers did to finish Sunday's game. The Broncos likely will need to score more than 24 points, in what could possibly be poor weather, to defeat Brady (who is a better poor-weather passer than Peyton Manning) and the Pats. Most of the talk this week understandably will be about another huge matchup between two of the best quarterbacks to play this game, but the team that runs the ball with more success likely will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
