There are a few, which are of course statistical. But they don't really concern me here what concerns me is the 1 point difference between 5dimes and b365.... Rarely are their lines this different; usually its either 1/2 a point or maybe the price is different. But i have very little experience when it comes to nfl (fell in love with this game in November) hence, asked for some expert advice.
Went from Pats -7 1/2 -105 to -7 -110 in the last hour or so on my local. I grabbed it at -7 cause I'd be surprised if it went lower than that...could be wrong though. It could be a trap, but I'll take that chance. Pats seem to be rolling, and Pitt looks like their going the opposite direction. Good luck with whatever you decide
This is why the NFL is just crazy.
Pittsburgh looks like a mess right now with Ben out. Their defense is suspect, their run game is middle of the road, they're 28th in sacks...
Yet the line is only -7 NE. Patriots are a golden goose to the public. This line makes no sense. With Ben playing it would be a great matchup, with Ben out(who was playing outstanding) how is this not a Patriots romping?
Pats haven't played any good teams yet but it still doesn't add up. The percentage of money should be so lopsided in this one.
Pittsburgh looks like a mess right now with Ben out. Their defense is suspect, their run game is middle of the road, they're 28th in sacks...
Yet the line is only -7 NE. Patriots are a golden goose to the public. This line makes no sense. With Ben playing it would be a great matchup, with Ben out(who was playing outstanding) how is this not a Patriots romping?
Pats haven't played any good teams yet but it still doesn't add up. The percentage of money should be so lopsided in this one.
I love the Steelers Sunday.....Key player out of the line up angle.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Agreed. Going into the week before BR was declared out the line would have been a pick 'em. No individual player in the NFL is worth 7 points against the spread. J.J. Watt held the distinction of being the player with most impact on Vegas lines (was worth 2 points) - and now Rob Gronkowski holds that distinction (about 1.5 points). 7 points for a single player being out is a little much, especially at home.
And I'm a Pats fan. I'm staying away because I don't like to bet on the home team, but PIT +7 or more would be my play.
Big difference between JJ Watt and a starting QB, in this case Tom Brady.
NE has been the play the past few weeks but usually with higher spreads we overthink it. Landry Jones has very little NFL experience and what little he has he has been pretty bad.
Every book should need Patriots Sunday.
At CLE, NE was about 10.5.
At PIT without Ben, it's about 7.5.
Seems about right. Ignoring the QB position, PIT should still be about a FG better than CLE.
At PIT without Ben, it's about 7.5.
Seems about right. Ignoring the QB position, PIT should still be about a FG better than CLE.
Opening lines I saw had Pit+2.5 WITH BR. Books are saying he's worth 5pts to the line. Given that Books already said Brady is worth 6-7 pts to a line, this "makes sense".
But Brady had better backups. Also, Pittsburgh has molded into an Offense First team. There's a reason Tod Hailey and the O preaches "If we score 30+ a game we will win". It's b/c the defense is mediocre and they NEED to score 30+ a game to win. They've shifted from a defensive juggernaut to offensive fireworks; a philosophy that can only work if you keep your QB healthy, OR have a comparable replacement. Neither has happened.
The town has 0 faith in the backup Landry. It's all over local media and the public would rather have Mettenberger start than Jones. It also wouldn't surprise me if Ben made a miraculous recovery and started the game. He's done it before.
But this is one of those lines that make you question everything you think you know in life. If you play NE-7, Pittsburgh will have the biggest defensive showing of the century, have a pick 6 and a kickoff return for a TD, and you will lose by a FG. If you take Pit+7, NE will dominate and you'll curse yourself the rest of the season for fading the easiest play of the year.
What do we do folks? IMO New England doesn't apply to 'trap games'
But Brady had better backups. Also, Pittsburgh has molded into an Offense First team. There's a reason Tod Hailey and the O preaches "If we score 30+ a game we will win". It's b/c the defense is mediocre and they NEED to score 30+ a game to win. They've shifted from a defensive juggernaut to offensive fireworks; a philosophy that can only work if you keep your QB healthy, OR have a comparable replacement. Neither has happened.
The town has 0 faith in the backup Landry. It's all over local media and the public would rather have Mettenberger start than Jones. It also wouldn't surprise me if Ben made a miraculous recovery and started the game. He's done it before.
But this is one of those lines that make you question everything you think you know in life. If you play NE-7, Pittsburgh will have the biggest defensive showing of the century, have a pick 6 and a kickoff return for a TD, and you will lose by a FG. If you take Pit+7, NE will dominate and you'll curse yourself the rest of the season for fading the easiest play of the year.
What do we do folks? IMO New England doesn't apply to 'trap games'
Tough game to figure out......Pitt has a bye coming so they can throw everything at the Pats......Pats have a rematch of a 0-16 loss this season to the Bills......do Pats hold back enough to just win SU?
