Passer Rating Differential and PRD differential

[justanobserver]

We did this last year and it showed a few trends that made some decent picks, i am going to post this here and more than anything it gets me focusing on numbers, and well the more information we have the better, right?

PRD numbers come from http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2015/Final/PRD/ (until week 4 we will be using last years final rankings)

Lines and totals come directly from SDQL and for the purposes of this will be taken sometime Wednesday afternoon.

Here is your opening week:

Away Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	Home Team	Off PR	Def PR	PRD	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Miami	88.9	97.45	-8.54	Seattle	109.79	77.97	31.82	198.69	175.42	40.36	44.00	10.50
Buffalo	95.63	83.34	12.29	Baltimore	79.43	99.58	-20.14	175.06	182.92	32.43	44.50	3.00
Carolina	98.97	73.46	25.52	Denver	76.31	78.76	-2.44	175.28	152.22	27.96	41.50	-3.00
Green Bay	92.72	80.11	12.62	Jacksonville	88.08	97.24	-9.16	180.80	177.35	21.78	48.00	-4.50
Tampa Bay	84.2	102.3	-18.1	Atlanta	87.85	86.89	0.95	172.05	189.19	19.05	47.50	3.00
Oakland	90.99	86.79	4.2	New Orleans	101.35	116.17	-14.82	192.34	202.96	19.02	51.00	1.00
San Diego	94.5	93.82	0.68	Kansas City	95.40	76.00	19.40	189.90	169.82	18.72	44.50	7.00
Cincinnati	104.1	78.86	25.23	N.Y. Jets	87.97	79.05	8.92	192.07	157.91	16.31	41.50	-2.50
N.Y. Giants	94.54	96.7	-2.16	Dallas	76.55	94.19	-17.63	171.09	190.89	15.47	46.00	0.00
Minnesota	87.86	90.04	-2.18	Tennessee	85.36	101.06	-15.70	173.22	191.10	13.52	41.00	-2.00
Chicago	89.74	99.33	-9.59	Houston	85.28	82.83	2.44	175.02	182.16	12.03	44.00	6.50
Cleveland	84.02	101.8	-17.78	Philadelphia	85.56	92.76	-7.21	169.58	194.56	10.57	41.00	4.00
Pittsburgh	91.19	90.89	0.3	Washington	102.04	96.10	5.94	193.23	186.99	5.64	50.00	-3.00
New England	101.92	87.02	14.9	Arizona	100.77	80.89	19.89	202.69	167.91	4.99	47.00	6.00
Detroit	95.06	100.9	-5.84	Indianapolis	77.53	88.02	-10.49	172.59	188.92	4.65	51.00	3.50
San Francisco	82.61	98.13	-15.52	St. Louis	74.06	90.45	-16.39	156.67	188.58	0.87	44.00	-2.50

A little different from last year, these will be shown as Away/Home teams and be formatted as such so the lines will be from the away teams perspective.

 

[justanobserver]

One thing that is a definite thing to pay attention to right away is games where the OPR total and DPR total is high, it is an indication of 2 poor defenses and 2 good offenses, two games this week are Pitt/Wash and Oak/NO. I would lean over in those games.

 

[varkeyboy]

One thing that is a definite thing to pay attention to right away is games where the OPR total and DPR total is high, it is an indication of 2 poor defenses and 2 good offenses, two games this week are Pitt/Wash and Oak/NO. I would lean over in those games.

I had no idea how to read this graph, till you explained it. Thanks for the explanation here....

Both both totals are 50+.........always scary.

 

[justanobserver]

I had no idea how to read this graph, till you explained it. Thanks for the explanation here....

Both both totals are 50+.........always scary.

I agree, 50+ is scary. Thats why I lean here and not call it an outright play, but we will need to see this play out over a couple of weeks to find the trends.

 

[justanobserver]

Going to be playing the Over on Pitt tonight, if it hits that will be 2 for 2 on games where DPR and OPR totals are over 185. Last year we had a good 7-8 week stretch where DPR totals over 185 were hitting over about 60-70% of the time. This year i think i will start with the combination of OPR and DPR, be more selective until we get some solid trends.

 

[justanobserver]

2 for 2, but it means nothing so far, hoping this trend might grow some legs though!

 

[3pointdog]

Nice to win!!

 

[justanobserver]

Here are the results for Week 1, again this is with last years final OPR and DPR and for the sake of identifying trends i am going to do results from both the home and away teams perspectives.

Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	Opening O/U	Final O/U	Opening Line	Final Line	Home or Away	Total	Over or Under	O/U Margin	Outcome	Outcome ATS
Seattle	198.69	175.42	40.36	44	44	-10.5	-10	Home	22	UNDER	-22	W	ATSL
Arizona	202.69	167.91	4.99	47	45	-6	-8.5	Home	44	UNDER	-1	L	ATSL
Kansas City	189.9	169.82	18.72	44.5	45	-7	-6.5	Home	60	OVER	15	W	ATSL
Houston	175.02	182.16	12.03	44	43	-6.5	-5.5	Home	37	UNDER	-6	W	ATSW
Philadelphia	169.58	194.56	10.57	41	41.5	-4	-4.5	Home	39	UNDER	-2.5	W	ATSW
Baltimore	175.06	182.92	-32.43	44.5	44.5	-3	-3	Home	20	UNDER	-24.5	W	ATSW
Atlanta	172.05	189.19	19.05	47.5	47	-3	-2.5	Home	55	OVER	8	L	ATSL
Indianapolis	172.59	188.92	-4.65	51	50.5	-3.5	-2.5	Home	74	OVER	23.5	L	ATSL
New Orleans	192.34	202.96	-19.02	51	50.5	-1	-1.5	Home	69	OVER	18.5	L	ATSL
Dallas	171.09	190.89	-15.47	46	47	0	0	Home	39	UNDER	-8	L	ATSL
N.Y. Jets	192.07	157.91	-16.31	41.5	42	2.5	1	Home	45	OVER	3	L	PUSH
Washington	193.23	186.99	5.64	50	49.5	3	2.5	Home	54	OVER	4.5	L	ATSL
San Francisco	156.67	188.58	0.87	44	43	2.5	2.5	Home	28	UNDER	-15	W	ATSW
Tennessee	173.22	191.1	-13.52	41	41	2	2.5	Home	41	PUSH	0	L	ATSL
Denver	175.28	152.22	-27.96	41.5	41	3	3	Home	41	PUSH	0	W	ATSW
Jacksonville	180.8	177.35	-21.78	48	47.5	4.5	4.5	Home	50	OVER	2.5	L	ATSW
Green Bay	180.8	177.35	21.78	48	47.5	-4.5	-4.5	Away	50	OVER	2.5	W	ATSW
Carolina	175.28	152.22	27.96	41.5	41	-3	-3	Away	41	PUSH	0	L	ATSL
Minnesota	173.22	191.1	13.52	41	41	-2	-2.5	Away	41	PUSH	0	W	ATSW
St. Louis	156.67	188.58	-0.87	44	43	-2.5	-2.5	Away	28	UNDER	-15	L	ATSL
Pittsburgh	193.23	186.99	-5.64	50	49.5	-3	-2.5	Away	54	OVER	4.5	W	ATSW
Cincinnati	192.07	157.91	16.31	41.5	42	-2.5	-1	Away	45	OVER	3	W	PUSH
N.Y. Giants	171.09	190.89	15.47	46	47	0	0	Away	39	UNDER	-8	W	ATSW
Oakland	192.34	202.96	19.02	51	50.5	1	1.5	Away	69	OVER	18.5	W	ATSW
Detroit	172.59	188.92	4.65	51	50.5	3.5	2.5	Away	74	OVER	23.5	W	ATSW
Tampa Bay	172.05	189.19	-19.05	47.5	47	3	2.5	Away	55	OVER	8	W	ATSW
Buffalo	175.06	182.92	32.43	44.5	44.5	3	3	Away	20	UNDER	-24.5	L	ATSL
Cleveland	169.58	194.56	-10.57	41	41.5	4	4.5	Away	39	UNDER	-2.5	L	ATSL
Chicago	175.02	182.16	-12.03	44	43	6.5	5.5	Away	37	UNDER	-6	L	ATSL
San Diego	189.9	169.82	-18.72	44.5	45	7	6.5	Away	60	OVER	15	L	ATSW
New England	202.69	167.91	-4.99	47	45	6	8.5	Away	44	UNDER	-1	W	ATSW
Miami	198.69	175.42	-40.36	44	44	10.5	10	Away	22	UNDER	-22	L	ATSW

 

[justanobserver]

Here are this weeks numbers with last years final ratings:

Away Team	Home Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	183.60	162.39	3.37	40.00	0.00
Indianapolis	Denver	153.84	166.78	8.05	45.00	6.00
Baltimore	Cleveland	163.45	201.38	2.36	43.00	-7.00
Tampa Bay	Arizona	184.97	183.19	37.99	50.00	6.50
Jacksonville	San Diego	182.58	191.06	9.84	48.00	3.00
New Orleans	N.Y. Giants	195.89	212.87	12.66	52.50	5.00
Tennessee	Detroit	180.42	201.96	9.86	47.00	5.50
San Francisco	Carolina	181.58	171.59	41.04	44.50	14.00
Miami	New England	190.82	184.47	23.44	41.50	6.50
Atlanta	Oakland	178.84	173.68	3.25	48.50	4.50
Seattle	St. Louis	183.85	168.42	48.21		-3.50
Dallas	Washington	178.59	190.29	23.57	46.00	2.50
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	195.29	169.75	24.93	48.00	3.00
Kansas City	Houston	180.68	158.83	16.96	43.50	2.00
Green Bay	Minnesota	180.58	170.15	14.80	44.50	-2.50
Philadelphia	Chicago	175.30	192.09	2.38	42.50	3.00

And this weeks numbers with this years initial ratings:

Away Team	Home Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	156.88	213.91	17.11	40.00	0.00
Indianapolis	Denver	188.62	198.14	8.64	45.00	6.00
Baltimore	Cleveland	154.85	180.88	65.94	43.00	-7.00
Tampa Bay	Arizona	227.27	218.67	11.50	50.00	6.50
Jacksonville	San Diego	182.76	192.93	9.19	48.00	3.00
New Orleans	N.Y. Giants	241.62	167.86	7.99	52.50	5.00
Tennessee	Detroit	215.16	196.89	0.12	47.00	5.50
San Francisco	Carolina	153.74	103.30	49.56	44.50	14.00
Miami	New England	180.90	182.14	4.14	41.50	6.50
Atlanta	Oakland	211.01	253.95	22.83	48.50	4.50
Seattle	St. Louis	111.70	159.01	52.69		-3.50
Dallas	Washington	142.12	222.71	1.15	46.00	2.50
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	226.47	149.68	2.66	48.00	3.00
Kansas City	Houston	186.94	173.56	12.40	43.50	2.00
Green Bay	Minnesota	172.44	171.95	18.88	44.50	-2.50
Philadelphia	Chicago	177.18	144.08	58.88	42.50	3.00

 

[justanobserver]

Ok, so i highlighted 4 games in red, the reason for that highlight is that both the total OPR and DPR are high using this years stats (admittedly only one week) and last years stats. I think this is an indication that both teams had a good offense last year which has continued this year in week 1 and both teams (minus the Giants who played a terrible Dallas team) continued their defensive ineptitude from last year. We are leaning over on these games.

There are two games highlighted in green for this years ratings, love the over in ATL/OAK and am leaning over in the Denver game. Denver should've scored MUCH more on Thursday night and Indy's defense is TERRIBLE, plus no matter what D they play Indy can put up 14-21 points. Also, Kubiak is good at beating shitty teams.

 

[justanobserver]

So in games that were highlighted we went 3-3 still gathering info, i think we will need until week 4 or so until we can identify trends.

 

[justanobserver]

This weeks numbers:

Away Team	Home Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Houston	New England	194.24	170.28	8.81	40.50	-1.00
Denver	Cincinnati	169.34	144.42	9.40	41.00	3.00
Arizona	Buffalo	208.55	173.38	52.77	47.00	-4.00
Los Angeles	Tampa Bay	129.68	197.64	14.61	42.00	5.00
N.Y. Jets	Kansas City	181.35	197.30	18.37	42.50	3.00
San Diego	Indianapolis	212.54	194.23	43.24	52.00	2.50
Chicago	Dallas	162.16	181.81	1.91	44.50	7.00
Cleveland	Miami	155.43	183.71	4.22	41.50	10.00
Pittsburgh	Philadelphia	189.60	148.32	8.66	46.00	-3.50
Washington	N.Y. Giants	185.38	187.88	57.54	46.50	4.50
Baltimore	Jacksonville	165.52	198.02	40.85	47.00	1.00
Detroit	Green Bay	183.80	213.91	7.27	47.50	7.50
Minnesota	Carolina	191.24	145.81	6.57	43.00	7.00
San Francisco	Seattle	155.16	155.70	1.74	40.00	9.50
Oakland	Tennessee	201.21	206.32	42.90	46.50	1.50
Atlanta	New Orleans	231.31	220.15	5.48	53.50	3.00

Again we have four games with high OPR and DPR totals, which would suggest some high totals on those games. The O/U on the Indy and New Orleans games really scare me so I won't be playing those, also i will not play an over on the NYG until i see someone score some significant points on their defense. So the target for this week is Tenn/Oak.

Keep in mind this is early season data but both defenses do not look very good, and both can put up points.

 

[justanobserver]

Ok sorry folks been busy (just bought a new house) but here are this weeks numbers:

Away Team	Home Team	OPR Total	DPR Total	PRD Diff	O/U	Line
Arizona	San Francisco	146.72	164.57	19.75	42.00	-3.50
Atlanta	Denver	224.83	165.56	15.19	47.50	5.50
New England	Cleveland	178.56	181.40	29.34	46.50	-10.00
Chicago	Indianapolis	185.56	186.68	17.76	47.50	5.00
Cincinnati	Dallas	192.33	186.17	3.84	45.00	1.00
Tennessee	Miami	161.25	175.70	6.47	43.50	3.50
Philadelphia	Detroit	197.67	186.38	63.95	46.00	3.00
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	196.65	193.33	16.86	48.00	7.00
San Diego	Oakland	208.53	184.30	12.23	50.00	3.50
Buffalo	Los Angeles	164.98	159.72	11.64	39.50	2.50
Washington	Baltimore	172.00	180.38	5.27	44.50	3.50
N.Y. Jets	Pittsburgh	158.42	204.30	71.86	48.00	7.00
Houston	Minnesota	171.71	136.92	19.92	40.00	6.00
Tampa Bay	Carolina	153.91	202.19	19.61		7.50

 

[justanobserver]

One thing to note, all games from week 2-4 (i threw out week 1 because we were using last years final rankings) that had a Total DPR of over 180 were over 18 times and under 8 times.

So out out of 26 games that had a total DPR of over 180 18 went over. Makes sense, bad defensive passer rating equals tons of points.

Of the 8 games that went under 5 of them had an OPR total over 190, which to me is counter intuitive, but it is what it is.

If we target those games this week we see:

New England	Cleveland	178.56	181.40	29.34	46.50	-10.00
Chicago	Indianapolis	185.56	186.68	17.76	47.50	5.00

Washington

Baltimore

172.00

180.38

5.27

44.50

3.50

N.Y. Jets

Pittsburgh

158.42

204.30

71.86

48.00

7.00

Tampa Bay

Carolina

153.91

202.19

19.61

7.50