Parlays...............WhY?!?!

[phdinsports]

I just read a post of a 3 team parlay paying $600 for every $100 risked. Don't know much about parlays, never play them, but why not just risk $100 a game double up for three games and win $700 instead of $600. If your worried about juice, play reduced juice -107, start your bet at 93, three double ups will get you $644 profit while only risking your initial $100

 

[Illini]

The only advantage is if the games are going on at the same time. But yeah, they are usually a sucker bet, but nice when you hit one.

 

[Fezzik]

You actually are laying just UNDER -110 on a 3-teamer.

1) Bet 100 TO MAKE 600, pays $700 back on a 3-teamer.

2) 3 consecutive -110 bets, starting with $100 only gets you $696 back.

Of course, you won't get reduced vig, or the best numbers (typically) in your 3-team parlays.

It is interesting that so many people call the 3-team parlay a sucker bet with "bad odds", and I'd say 99% of those are incapable, or just too lazy to ever have calculated what the actual implied vig is on each leg of the bet.

It is the 4 team parlay paying 10-1 that is the biggest lollypop (SUCKER!!) out there. Followed closely by the 5 teamer paying 20-1. How many licks are there in a typical lollypop Mr. Owl? Let's see, 1...2....3! NOOOOO FOUR OR MORE when it comes to parlays off the board.

Many say they like playing these "for fun". Personally, for me it's fun to win, now lose. And it isn't much fun getting paid $11 back on a random 1/16 bet. And it's not much fun laying -175 (7 to make 4) on that fourth leg, and letting the books cheat me. And it's fun avoiding bets that make Keno look like a solid investment by comparison.


In the land of the blind, the 1 eyed man is King.

:monsters-

 

[Illini]

1) Bet 100 TO MAKE 600, pays $700 back on a 3-teamer.

2) 3 consecutive -110 bets, starting with $100 only gets you $696 back.

Of course, you won't get reduced vig, or the best numbers (typically) in your 3-team parlays.

It is interesting that so many people call the 3-team parlay a sucker bet with "bad odds", and I'd say 99% of those are incapable, or just too lazy to ever have calculated what the actual implied vig is on each leg of the bet.

It is the 4 team parlay paying 10-1 that is the biggest lollypop (SUCKER!!) out there. Followed closely by the 5 teamer paying 20-1. How many licks are there in a typical lollypop Mr. Owl? Let's see, 1...2....3! NOOOOO FOUR OR MORE when it comes to parlays off the board.

Many say they like playing these "for fun". Personally, for me it's fun to win, now lose. And it isn't much fun getting paid $11 back on a random 1/16 bet. And it's not much fun laying -175 (7 to make 4) on that fourth leg, and letting the books cheat me. And it's fun avoiding bets that make Keno look like a solid investment by comparison.


In the land of the blind, the 1 eyed man is King.

:monsters-

I agree with you. I can't tell you how many times people have told me that at 3 teamer is a sucker bet, and that the actual odds are 7-1. Everyone always says "how the hell did you get 5.96 to 1?" So there is no doubt that a 3-team parlay pays fair odds, or even better. But considering reduced juice and getting the best number, I'd say it's fair to assume you don't bet many 3-teamers. Right?

 

[trytrytry]

1) Bet 100 TO MAKE 600, pays $700 back on a 3-teamer.

2) 3 consecutive -110 bets, starting with $100 only gets you $696 back.

Of course, you won't get reduced vig, or the best numbers (typically) in your 3-team parlays.

It is interesting that so many people call the 3-team parlay a sucker bet with "bad odds", and I'd say 99% of those are incapable, or just too lazy to ever have calculated what the actual implied vig is on each leg of the bet.

It is the 4 team parlay paying 10-1 that is the biggest lollypop (SUCKER!!) out there. Followed closely by the 5 teamer paying 20-1. How many licks are there in a typical lollypop Mr. Owl? Let's see, 1...2....3! NOOOOO FOUR OR MORE when it comes to parlays off the board.

Many say they like playing these "for fun". Personally, for me it's fun to win, now lose. And it isn't much fun getting paid $11 back on a random 1/16 bet. And it's not much fun laying -175 (7 to make 4) on that fourth leg, and letting the books cheat me. And it's fun avoiding bets that make Keno look like a solid investment by comparison.


In the land of the blind, the 1 eyed man is King.

:monsters-

post of the week

 

[phdinsports]

1) Bet 100 TO MAKE 600, pays $700 back on a 3-teamer.

2) 3 consecutive -110 bets, starting with $100 only gets you $696 back.

Of course, you won't get reduced vig, or the best numbers (typically) in your 3-team parlays.

It is interesting that so many people call the 3-team parlay a sucker bet with "bad odds", and I'd say 99% of those are incapable, or just too lazy to ever have calculated what the actual implied vig is on each leg of the bet.

It is the 4 team parlay paying 10-1 that is the biggest lollypop (SUCKER!!) out there. Followed closely by the 5 teamer paying 20-1. How many licks are there in a typical lollypop Mr. Owl? Let's see, 1...2....3! NOOOOO FOUR OR MORE when it comes to parlays off the board.

Many say they like playing these "for fun". Personally, for me it's fun to win, now lose. And it isn't much fun getting paid $11 back on a random 1/16 bet. And it's not much fun laying -175 (7 to make 4) on that fourth leg, and letting the books cheat me. And it's fun avoiding bets that make Keno look like a solid investment by comparison.


In the land of the blind, the 1 eyed man is King.

:monsters-

It pays back $700 but your only making $600 profit, minus your initial $100; $100 on a game double up for three striaght yields $800, minus your initial $100, $700 profit! with -110 juice laying $91 double up your gross is $728 minus initial $100 for a profit of $628, at -107 juice laying $93 double up your gross is $744 minus initial $100 for a profit of $644!

 

[RPM]

fezzik,

not trying to argue with you but if i remember correctly, the odds of a 3 teamer pay 6-1, but you have an honest chance of hitting 1 in 8 three team parlays.

that being the case, parlays are a losing proposition. right?

are my numbers correct?

 

[Illini]

It pays back $700 but your only making $600 profit, minus your initial $100; $100 on a game double up for three striaght yields $800, minus your initial $100, $700 profit! with -110 juice laying $91 double up your gross is $728 minus initial $100 for a profit of $628, at -107 juice laying $93 double up your gross is $744 minus initial $100 for a profit of $644!

It actually looks like this at -110 juice.

100 initial stake wins 90.91 on the first game.
190.91 wins 173.55 on the second game.
364.46 wins 331.33 on the third game.

=695.79 -(100 original stake)
=595.79 payout by betting straight bets and parlaying as you go
=600 book payout on a 3-team parlay.

Thus, if you can't get better than -110, and can't get a better number, the parlay bet is better than parlaying straight bets. A book that pays 7-1 on 3-teamers would bet giving you a juice Bonus Bet.

 

[Doug]

It actually looks like this at -110 juice.

100 initial stake wins 90.91 on the first game.
190.91 wins 173.55 on the second game.
364.46 wins 331.33 on the third game.

=695.79 -(100 original stake)
=595.79 payout by betting straight bets and parlaying as you go
=600 book payout on a 3-team parlay.

Thus, if you can't get better than -110, and can't get a better number, the parlay bet is better than parlaying straight bets. A book that pays 7-1 on 3-teamers would bet giving you a juice Bonus Bet.

It's mostly theory. Best of all is don't play the 3-teamer. Play each leg at best shopped price, very hard to get best ( esp. if you can free half-point) of it ( on 3-legs) at same book. 7-1 3's are fine but book that offers them likes to keep your money there ( 10k max monthly withdrawal and fees).

Parlaying ML's is better option often.

Most would be best served to forget parlays and shop instead.

I'll parlay same game to total if I see correlation.

A pro never goes beyond 3 teams, after that it's a lottery ticket ( even with ML's calculated properly ! ).

Grind it out ! Shopping, money management and bonuses get the cash !

Parlays have a place, but are often misused. PARLAY ONLY WHEN IT MAKES THE BET BETTER !

 

[Fezzik]

Good discussion and note.

The 50% bettor of course gets ground to bits parlaying, not due to the parlay odds, but rather due to bascially having triple the volume bet when parlaying than does the straight bettor, so parlay man loses at triple the rate. 1/8 lost on every dollar bet (12.5%) vs. 4.54%.

The analysis is not applicable to the 52% plus bettor!

 

[Doug]

The 50% bettor of course gets ground to bits parlaying, not due to the parlay odds, but rather due to bascially having triple the volume bet when parlaying than does the straight bettor, so parlay man loses at triple the rate. 1/8 lost on every dollar bet (12.5%) vs. 4.54%.

The analysis is not applicable to the 52% plus bettor!

Steve : Do you agree with me , in principle ?