parlay question

[caddymatty]

hi guys i am pretty new to sporsbetting. i am a professional poker player so i do understands odds and not overextending myself. now i had a parlay bet i placed this week for 200 bucks and the first two teams came through. now how should i play the 3rd game. i have denver -3 and the parlay is for 1268 dollars. how would u guys hedge against this bet as i don't feel it makes sense to have the full 1268 on the line. thx for your responses and your time.

 

[maxfiprov1]

hi guys i am pretty new to sporsbetting. i am a professional poker player so i do understands odds and not overextending myself. now i had a parlay bet i placed this week for 200 bucks and the first two teams came through. now how should i play the 3rd game. i have denver -3 and the parlay is for 1268 dollars. how would u guys hedge against this bet as i don't feel it makes sense to have the full 1268 on the line. thx for your responses and your time.

i would bet 3 or 4 hundo on oakland to cover parlay bet and win some if denver dont cover if they do u still win 8 or so

 

[maxfiprov1]

hi guys i am pretty new to sporsbetting. i am a professional poker player so i do understands odds and not overextending myself. now i had a parlay bet i placed this week for 200 bucks and the first two teams came through. now how should i play the 3rd game. i have denver -3 and the parlay is for 1268 dollars. how would u guys hedge against this bet as i don't feel it makes sense to have the full 1268 on the line. thx for your responses and your time.

i would bet 3 or 4 hundo on oakland to cover parlay bet and win some if denver dont cover if they do u still win 8 or so

 

[bigal69]

i reccommend no parlays. you have two chances to lose,, if you win the first, you get nothing if the if the other loses.

 

[caddymatty]

yeh i have been given quite a bit of grief for doing a parlay in the first place. i thought there was value there but i suppose this isn't the case. in the situation i am in though what would u say?

 

[fsugolf]

bet to win 500 on oakland. That way you win about 500 regardless of who wins

 

[Woody0]

yeh i have been given quite a bit of grief for doing a parlay in the first place. i thought there was value there but i suppose this isn't the case. in the situation i am in though what would u say?

Nothing wrong with playing parlays provided you're getting true odds (note some books shave the odds giving you a poor bet). At standard -110 odds a three team parlay for $200 should give $1391.59 so I suspect your book is giving you a poor deal with the $1268 return.

Since you want to hedge your 3rd selection I suggest you stick with 2 team parlays at true odds in future.

As others point out Oakland+3, $575 at -115 guarantees about a $500 win; while Oakland+3, $230 at -115 protects your stake and gives an $838 win if Denver comes through.

PS: Welcome to The Rx.

 

[alwayslosing]

Take Oakland for a nickel. I think they run wild tonight.

 

[seriousaddiction]

Yup...worth mentioning I say this line goes to Den -3.5


Take oakland +4 (buy the hook) for 500 and give urself a one pt middle...doesnt sound like much but ur gonna give urself a gaurenteed winner...If oak wins by 3 you get the 500 and ur parlay goes down to a two teamer...

 

[seriousaddiction]

a big percentage of games land on 3...its worth a shot

 

[caddymatty]

wow thats a real good point. i think i might take that route. i was thinking of going for the hedge small advantage to denver but i think that makes alot more sense. can give me a max value if the 3 point win does occur and still be able to pull in about the same value the parlay would give me. thx for the advice.

 

[seriousaddiction]

so lets see what that will give you if the line does indeed move to 3.5 (which i think it will)


Oak wins by more than 4---you win 500 on game lose 200 par=300
Den wins by 3--Parlay goes to 520 and you win 500 on oak= 1020
Den wins big you hit parlay and lose oakland=win about 600


not bad odds

 

[seriousaddiction]

thats an average of about 650

vs

if you just bet oakland an average of about 550

 

[CoolBreeze22]

In the future whenever you make a bet like this always take the Favorite on the Money line in the last leg of the parlay. That way you can at least middle the dog if you're going to hedge the bet.

 

[bigal69]

In the future whenever you make a bet like this always take the Favorite on the Money line in the last leg of the parlay. That way you can at least middle the dog if you're going to hedge the bet.

in the future dont make a parlay for more than $10.... then you will save money.. these things are designed to lose...so are teasers...they suck you in woth low spreads and odds...

side by side the stright bettor will cash more tickets than a parlay or teaser over teh course of a month.