Parlay Bets

[SoonerBS]

How many of you play parlay bets and think they are good bets?

Personally, I think they are sucker bets. Whenever I started out in gambling I made my share of parlay bets before I learned that they were nothing more than the book's way of stealing my money. I would win just enough to keep feeding the monster until my money was gone and I was reloading again. Now, I only bet games straight up.

I think gamblers who say they make money on parlays and win a lot of parlays are full of bullshit. What do you guys think.

 

[KingofNicotine]

I'm fairly new and I fell into that trap. I lost a lot of money doing them and won only 1 time and it was a 2 teamer.

I see people saying they won and how they are worth it. Some guy was saying he won $20,000 today on the baseball boards but for every guy that wins big I imagine there are a lot of losers.

 

[GoSooners]

Parlay bets are sucker bets. Even two team parlays aren't worth playing. A 3 team parlay is an absolutely terrible bet. Theortically, the actual odds of hitting one are just 1 in 8. But the books payout for a parlay is just 6-1. The payout for a bet like that should be 7-1 since for every 8 bets you produce 1 winner and 7 losers. Since the payout for a parlay is 6-1 the house has a 12.5% edge. Not my kind of odds.

 

[bigtendominator]

How many of you play parlay bets and think they are good bets?

Personally, I think they are sucker bets. Whenever I started out in gambling I made my share of parlay bets before I learned that they were nothing more than the book's way of stealing my money. I would win just enough to keep feeding the monster until my money was gone and I was reloading again. Now, I only bet games straight up.

I think gamblers who say they make money on parlays and win a lot of parlays are full of bullshit. What do you guys think.

Agree completely.

If anyone saw Bill Simmons piece on ESPN were he went to Ceaser's Palace and he asked the Sportsbook Director, if you could give the gambler one piece of advice what would it be. He said "don't bet parlays, its hard enough to win one game, let alone 2 or more."

 

[bigtendominator]

I'm fairly new and I fell into that trap. I lost a lot of money doing them and won only 1 time and it was a 2 teamer.

I see people saying they won and how they are worth it. Some guy was saying he won $20,000 today on the baseball boards but for every guy that wins big I imagine there are a lot of losers.

There is a guy at the LV Hilton that wagers 1K to 2K, 5 and 6 team parlays. He has done pretty well, but I am personally not sure if he is up or down, but I just think that is crazy.

 

[GoSooners]

The bad part about parlays is you can be a great handicapper, hit 20 out of every 30 games. And have a nice profit at the end of the season by betting individual games. But that same handicapper can bet nothing but parlays on these same 30 games (10 three team cards) and potentially end up with nothing. I used to play my share of parlays many moons ago. I don't know about you guys, but with me it always seemed liked it was that one game that kept me from sweeping the card. And in the end I wished I had of just played the individual games instead of trying to get greedy.

 

[punter]

Parlays are not a good play in football.

I like them in baseball, but that is a moneyline sport so it just gives you a value play on the expected outcome.

 

[5-0SAT]

I'm in the minority here on this forum, but I'll share my way of doing things for the sake of discussion. During the college football regular season, I only do parlays. Mostly 5 team parlays to be specific at 25:1 odds. Call me crazy, but that is the system that has worked for me over the last few years. During bowl season, I do singles and if i really like a certain game I will throw a single down during the regular season. But for the most part, I pick 5 games and parlay them. Last year, I was very successful, I won around 5 parlays at around a revenue of 22,000. When I take out my unsuccessful parlays and other misc costs, I finished in the black around 17,000. Not that I particularly care if you believe me, but I've attached some evidence from last year of which i saved. The first 2 weeks of the college football campaign are critical, and I believe to be the easiest weeks to beat the books with blatant mis-lines. I won back to back weeks the first two weeks of the year last year, which set the tone for my season. I know in the long run, parlays aren't the best way to sustain a preferred profit, but they've worked for me. Single bets are the best way, but i just wanted to show that parlay's could be used to make a profit for arguments sake. Cheers :toast: and can't wait for NCAA '09 kickoff


Nov 29, 2009 3:11am 4 Team Parlay - Winner 200.00 to win 2135.38
1. Football - Georgia Tech - spread +7½ (-120)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 12:00pm [winner]
2. Football - Florida - spread -16½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 3:30pm [winner]
3. Football - Southern Mississippi - spread -14 (-130)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 3:00pm [winner]
4. Football - Virginia - spread +7½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 12:00pm [winner]



Nov 20, 2009 7:15pm 5 Team Parlay - Winner 250.00 to win 5748.19
1. Football - Georgia Tech - spread -3 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 20 at 7:45pm [winner]
2. Football - Rutgers - spread -19 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 22 at 12:00pm [winner]
3. Football - Ohio State - spread -20½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 22 at 12:00pm [winner]
4. Football - Boise State - spread -6½ (-120)
for the entire game held on Nov 22 at 4:00pm [winner]
5. Football - Oklahoma - spread -6½ (-115)
for the entire game held on Nov 22 at 8:00pm [winner]


Nov 15, 2009 6:13pm 5 Team Parlay - Winner 183.00 to win 5349.25
1. Football - Texas El Paso - spread -14 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 15 at 9:00pm [winner]
2. Football - Houston - moneyline (+145)
for the entire game held on Nov 15 at 8:00pm [winner]
3. Football - Alabama - spread -21 (-120)
for the entire game held on Nov 15 at 7:45pm [winner]
4. Football - Colorado - spread +17½ (-115)
for the entire game held on Nov 15 at 8:00pm [winner]
5. Football - Oregon - spread -6 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 15 at 6:30pm [winner]


Date placed:
Jan 01, 2009 12:05p

Date settled:
Jan 01, 2009 9:07p 5 Team Parlay

Football - College Halftimes (2H) Point Spread
(248) Nebraska -1 (EVEN) Thu@11:30a


Final Scores
Clemson 7
Nebraska 23

Football - College Lines (Game) Total
(251) Penn St. vs. (252) USC Over 45 (-115) Thu@2:00p


Final Scores
Penn St. 24
USC 38

Football - College Lines (Game) Total
(253) Virginia Tech vs. (254) Cincinnati Under 43 (-115) Thu@5:15p


Final Scores
Virginia Tech 20
Cincinnati 7

Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(252) USC -10 (-115) Thu@2:00p


Final Scores
Penn St. 24
USC 38

Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(253) Virginia Tech +2 (-105) Thu@5:15p


Final Scores
Virginia Tech 20
Cincinnati 7

Outcome:Win

Risk US$ 137.50 to win US$ 3370.98

 

[russ1945]

5-0sat

Ditto. I even play 5 team round robins (5) 4 teamers, (1) 5 teamer. If you hit 4 out of five you actually win a little. If you have your fifth team riding you can guarantee yourself money by playing a little the other way.
I did just like you LY in September and the rest was easy. I also play only straights on bowls and I even reduce my straight bet amounts for bowls. LY year I pulled out all but 10% of my bankroll for the bowls and that was all I played on them. No way I was going to give it back.
In the NFL I play 3 x 2's (3) two teamers and sometimes that will be my only play on Sunday if I had a really good Saturday. The following is a quote from Mark Lawrence. "Common thinking says parlays are just a sucker's bet. However, that's a very primative way of viewing it. Betting games individually does provide more financial security, but slow and steady is not the only way to win the race. Trying a couple of games together in a parlay multiplies your payout, which leads to a bigger payday. It's a higher risk, but, unquestionably, a much higher reward. If your plays are strong enough, to bet individually, budget for a parlay and grow your bankroll faster." I consistently win more money on parlays than I do on straight bets. I tripled my bankroll last September and like you I owed it to parlays.

 

[Conan]

About the only kind of parlay I ever play is where I take a side bet and combine it with a cinch ML wager around -450 or thereabouts. That wipes out the juice and often pays around +125 or so instead of -110 (even money with a winner) Just don't lose ever lose the ML fav side of the parlay. That is entirely possible to do all season long without getting snubbed. I call the extra ML play a kicker because it kicks up the payout with little if any risk. Over the course of a season, that can drastically increase winnings.

 

[bellyputter]

There used to be parlay cards in Vegas that had a positive(+) expectation. These were correlated with line movements, injuries, weather, etc. Stale #s are a license to steal!

 

[EmmittRudd]

If you are going to do that, why not just play an "if" bet?

If you started with $200 and played this card:

Nov 29, 2009 3:11am 4 Team Parlay - Winner 200.00 to win 2135.38
1. Football - Georgia Tech - spread +7½ (-120)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 12:00pm [winner]
2. Football - Florida - spread -16½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 3:30pm [winner]
3. Football - Southern Mississippi - spread -14 (-130)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 3:00pm [winner]
4. Football - Virginia - spread +7½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 12:00pm [winner]

You would risk $200 and after hitting your first game you would have won $161 roll that into your second game
The $361 turns wins you $342
Now you are laying $703 to win $598
You now are laying $1301 to win $1235.

If you hit you have $2536.
You won $2135 by hitting the same four games. That's $400 less. Now explain to me how that is not a sucker bet again.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

You can do the math and see how parlays are a bad idea long term. To use five-team parlays as an example, 5-0, it shakes out like this:

* The true odds on a 5-team parlay are somewhere around 31:1, perhaps even slightly higher (at a 50% chance of winning each game the odds of winning all 5 games is a little over 3%)

* 25:1 payoff on a 5-team parlay is very good, but I don't know where you find it. The Greek pays 20:1, but 5Dimes and Bookmaker are better, at about 24.35:1

* Those payoff rates make a big difference. The break-even rate for 5-team parlays at 20:1 is about 55%. (This means you have to handicap strong enough to have a 55% chance at winning each of the games included in the parlay.) At 24.35:1 that drops to about 53%.

In contrast, betting only single games at -110 juice, you have to hit at a rate of about 52.5% in order to break even.

A very good handicapper expects to hit around 55% ATS. In a best-case situation -- one where he finds a book that offers true odds or very close to true odds on parlays -- the long-term expected return on straight bets and parlays is about the very same, but with the parlay bettor seeing wider swings in the bankroll.

In the more common situation -- where the book doesn't offer true odds on parlays -- the parlay bettor is placing himself at a disadvantage. It's like a roulette bettor choosing to play on a double-zero wheel instead of one with a single zero.

I do play a two-teamer every so often for fun, though.

 

[russ1945]

If you are going to do that, why not just play an "if" bet?

If you started with $200 and played this card:

Nov 29, 2009 3:11am 4 Team Parlay - Winner 200.00 to win 2135.38
1. Football - Georgia Tech - spread +7½ (-120)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 12:00pm [winner]
2. Football - Florida - spread -16½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 3:30pm [winner]
3. Football - Southern Mississippi - spread -14 (-130)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 3:00pm [winner]
4. Football - Virginia - spread +7½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 29 at 12:00pm [winner]










You would risk $200 and after hitting your first game you would have won $161 roll that into your second game
The $361 turns wins you $342
Now you are laying $703 to win $598
You now are laying $1301 to win $1235.

If you hit you have $2536.
You won $2135 by hitting the same four games. That's $400 less. Now explain to me how that is not a sucker bet again.

Comment: Looks like you both did pretty well to me. I would settle for the $2135.00 and feel pretty good about it.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Parlay, Tease, If andother bets of those type are completely sucker wagers. You guys can boast about how much you won, but if you were honest, you would tell us how much you lost, which would be more than you won. Let's take the simplist wager. A two team parlay that pays 13/5. In reality, that wager should pay 15/5. the difference (or vig, to make things easier to understand) is 13%. When you go down on a straight wager, you only pay 10%. The more teams you play, the worse the odds get. Teasers and IF wagersare worse. "Prop" plays are also very bad. No real gambler plays parlays or teasers. The object is to cut the odds down, not to raise them. Parlays just raise the odds against you, and in the long run, that is a loser. Remember this rule. Do not forget this rule. If the casino or book cannot make more money on a new gimik than they are curently making on the old way of doing business, the WILL NOT put it into play. Parlays make more money than straight wagers do for the books. Teasers make more money than Parlays. Prop plays make more money than teasers. Those are the rules. No one can change them.

 

[russ1945]

You can do the math and see how parlays are a bad idea long term. To use five-team parlays as an example, 5-0, it shakes out like this:

* The true odds on a 5-team parlay are somewhere around 31:1, perhaps even slightly higher (at a 50% chance of winning each game the odds of winning all 5 games is a little over 3%)

* 25:1 payoff on a 5-team parlay is very good, but I don't know where you find it. The Greek pays 20:1, but 5Dimes and Bookmaker are better, at about 24.35:1

* Those payoff rates make a big difference. The break-even rate for 5-team parlays at 20:1 is about 55%. (This means you have to handicap strong enough to have a 55% chance at winning each of the games included in the parlay.) At 24.35:1 that drops to about 53%.

In contrast, betting only single games at -110 juice, you have to hit at a rate of about 52.5% in order to break even.

A very good handicapper expects to hit around 55% ATS. In a best-case situation -- one where he finds a book that offers true odds or very close to true odds on parlays -- the long-term expected return on straight bets and parlays is about the very same, but with the parlay bettor seeing wider swings in the bankroll.

In the more common situation -- where the book doesn't offer true odds on parlays -- the parlay bettor is placing himself at a disadvantage. It's like a roulette bettor choosing to play on a double-zero wheel instead of one with a single zero.

I do play a two-teamer every so often for fun, though.

I agree with a lot of what you said. I do agree that if you are only at 55% ATS you should not be trying parlays on any kind of consistent basis.
If you bet 10 parlays at $100.00 on each 5 teamer (@ 20-1, that's all ever got too), you would be out $1,000.00. If you hit only one you would collect $2,000.00 and be up $1,000.00 plus your money back on the one you hit.
I think what we are saying is that we did better than that but I would settle for that anytime.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

if you are only at 55% ATS

A 55 percent ATS rate is acheived only by very good cappers in the long term. It's a hard figure to hit when you're talking multiple seasons.

 

[russ1945]

A 55 percent ATS rate is acheived only by very good cappers in the long term. It's a hard figure to hit when you're talking multiple seasons.

I would not bet if I could not hit more than 55%. With no "certified" ATS record being a first time forum guy I can assure you I do better than that.
If you bet $1,000 a week for the 12 weeks of the regular season that would be an output of $12,000.00. If you hit 55% that would be $6,600 in winners and $5,940 in losers and juice. That would net you $660.00 total or $55.00 a week. Are you shitting me. I would rather play a slot machine.
To be honest it also has a lot to do with how much you bet. Honestly I only bet the 5x4x5 parlays I desribed above for $25.00 or less as rule.
So I bet (5) 4 teamers for $25 and (1) 5 teamer for $25.00. If I lose 3 or more I lose $150.00. I can cover that with one straight bet. If I hit 4 teams I hit one 4 teamer for $275 plus my money back on that parlay for a total of $300 ( a net of $175). If I hit all 5 games, I hit (5) 4 teamers @ $275 each ($1375) plus the 5 teamer for $500 (total of $1,875 and you get your bet back too). The net from hitting one 5x4x5 is enough to finance 12 more such parlays (12 x 150 = 1800) with $75 left over. You can see what happend when you hit more than one. I am not surprised that 5-0SAT played nothing but parlays. The only place to play them is through a casino where ties push. Stay away from parlay cards where ties lose.
I am not putting this out there to brag it is not about that. But if you are
sure enough of 5 games to straight bet them you might consider this as a extra or another way to approach you wager. It is a natural defense mechanism of parlay naysayers to accuse parlay players that they are suckers. I think it is equally important to tell people that parlays are a part of some peoples arsenal. Coming from a horse racing background I am used to betting small to win big with exactas, trifectas, etc. Maybe it is just second nature to me. I am not trying to talk anyone into trying something that they are not comfortable with. By the same token there are some of us who do parlays that have had success. It could be we will stop if it all goes south but until then I keep them well within my budget and I play only with money I can afford to lose. I can see where you guys are coming from but you should consider that 5-0Sat and I do not consider ourselves to be an exception to a rule. I maintain that a casinos biggest nightmare is a handicapper who is successful at parlays. Hell you can bet them for as little as $5.00 at a few places. Try some of those and see what happens. That is how I got started on them.

 

[ChiTownHustler]

Only parlays I make are what I call "Style of Play" parlays when you parlay a total with a side in the same game. Strong offensive teams or defensive teams are good for this.
If I think an underdog in CFB that is, a strong defensive/ weak offensive team or strong offensive/ weak defensive team, has a chance at covering/winning they will obviously have to dictate tempo to their strength. If you cap the game thinking this team will compete you might as well pair it with their tempo.

 

[russ1945]

Only parlays I make are what I call "Style of Play" parlays when you parlay a total with a side in the same game. Strong offensive teams or defensive teams are good for this.
If I think an underdog in CFB that is, a strong defensive/ weak offensive team or strong offensive/ weak defensive team, has a chance at covering/winning they will obviously have to dictate tempo to their strength. If you cap the game thinking this team will compete you might as well pair it with their tempo.

If you put two such plays together you would have 4 teamer. I like your way of thinking. If you are that into a game why not combine both side and total. Make the maximum amount from both. The naysayers will give it the thumbs down I am sure. I say whatever works for you.