Sport Recife +0.75 -110 7units
Sport Recife -0.5 +400 1unit
I played this last night at +107 and +480, one of my larger bets this year actually because I rarely go above 4 or 5 units for a single game. But this line is just off in my opinion and might be completely ridiculous by Saturday evening, which of corse doesn't mean by any means that this will be a winning bet. So remember to always bet within your means.
(Depending on the lineups, I might even add another 1/2 unit on Recife -1.5 +1050
Let's take a look at Palmeiras: They are currently in 5th place, fighting for one of the top4 spots that would allow them to play the Copa Libertadores next season. Despite the close fight for the top4 positions, they fielded a reserve team last Saturday in Florianopolis playing vs bottom team Avai because they wanted to rest their regulars for yesterdays Copa do Brasil match in Rio vs Fluminense. They still beat Avai handily by a score of 3-1, but Avai is playing terrible right now and were also missing three regulars due to suspension and several other players due to injury, while not having much depth on their roster due to a rather small budget. So I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that win since they showed lots of weak spots in their defense and a decent team would have taken those errors and scored because of them.
Why am I telling you all this? Well, if they rested their starters last Saturday before Wednesdays 1st leg in the Copa do Brasil, it only would make sense to do the same this Saturday vs Recife because next Wednesday they will play the 2nd leg at home vs Fluminense and after losing 2-1 in Rio, they have a great shot at advancing to the next round due to having lost by a margin of only one and having scored on the road.
Their coach already indicated today, that he prioritizes neither Serie A nor the Copa, but he said the same thing last week before resting his entire starting squad in their Serie A match.
Taking a look at both teams, Recife had the whole week off and are at full strength. They might have to bench Maikon Leite, one of their wingers, because he is loaned from Palmeiras and usually (in Brazil) there are gentlemen agreements in place that prohibit players from facing their original squad in that case. But since the CBF is trying to get rid of that practice, they might even be allowed to start him. Either way, missing him wouldn't be a huge problem in my opinion, since they have a very capable backup. Besides that, Regis is questionable, but expected to play. So you have Recife pretty much at full strength, with a full week of preparation and practices (rest early in the week, practice/preparation starting midweek) while Palmeiras had to travel to Rio, play the Copa match at Maracana, then travel back to Sao Paulo, where their return flight was actually delayed for a further 2hrs due to the horrific weather in Sampa. Thursday was a day off and they only will have a single practice session on Friday, which probably will be a reduced one to get the players some rest. Preparation was also clearly focused on the Copa match vs Flu early in the week, so you get a huge advantage for Recife in that regard.
So let's get to homefield advantage: Palmeiras is 9-3-3 at home, but lost their last match at home vs Ponte Preta 0-1. While 9-3-3 is a very decent/good home record, this game actually will be played in Pacaembu, not at their real home side, the Allianz Parque. So while they still will have an advantage due to fan support and knowing the pitch, it's a greatly reduced advantage because not only Recife had to travel to Sao Paulo but Palmeiras had to travel, too, because of the Copa. Because of the Copa the preparation advantage was completely reversed, with Recife having the advantage despite having to go on the road. And change of venue will reduce the advantage for the home team even further.
Some people at this point might have taken a look at Recifes road numbers and point to them being the only(!) winless team after 15 road games and that is absolutely correct but only tells half the truth: At the same time the got a draw 9 out of 15 times, meaning just from a statistical point of view, +0.75 would have been a winner 60% of the time, so getting plus money already looks attractive. Out of those 6 losses, they lost by a margin of 1 5 times, meaning +0.75 would have been a 50% loss and 50% push a further 5 times. The only loss by a margin of 2 came at Santos and FC Santos is the best home team and beat Recife by a score of 3-1, while Recife had two players sent off in that game.
Overall, out of 31 games so far, Recife has a 11-13-7 (wins/ties/losses) with only said game @Santos being lost by a difference larger than 1. So they were "in" pretty much every single game they played this year and had a chance to take points. And rarely ever goes a team winless on the road over the course of a whole season, especially a team that might end up in the top5...so they are kind of due for one...
Current form/recent performance also favors Recife: Since they aren't missing regular starters anymore, they have won 3 out of their last 4, incl. beating 2nd place team Atletico Mineiro 4-1 last Sunday as a +0.25 home underdog. Their only loss came at the hands of Internacional, who have a decent squad, and after Recife had to travel from Recife all the way to Argentina to play their Copa Sulamericana match there earlier that same week and then flying back to Porto Alegre to play Inter. So that was far from being an ideal spot for Sport and they lost by a score of 2-1, conceding the losing goal rather late in the 82nd minute.
Palmeiras on the other hand is 1-1-2 in their last 4 league matches: Last Saturday their reserve team beat a bad Avai team 3-1 on the road, they also got a decent result when they drew at Sao Paulo vs SPFC, but also lost their last home game vs a mediocre Ponte Preta team and got shelled 5-1 at bottom team Chapecoense two weeks ago.
Roster situation/injuries/suspensions: Like I already mentioned, Palmeiras might rest several if not almost all regulars because of the Copa, but even if they don't, they are still missing 3 regulars and one semi-regular due to injuries. Including Gabriel, who was a key player for them, especially in regards to set pieces: Once he went down, they had lots of problems defending set pieces and gave up a bunch of goals after corner or free kicks. Just happens that Recife is one of the most successful teams after said set pieces....They also will still be without Arouca, probably their best defensive midfielder and by far best defender when it comes to their transition game after turning over the ball. In general they are missing several midfielders and that might be another area, that will cause lots of trouble vs Recife: Recife has fast wingers and are one of the better counterattacking teams in Serie A. With the current state of Palmeiras midfield, they will get some space for their quick counter attacks and Palmeiras defense has struggled. Especially if they decided to rest either one of their two best (remaining) centre backs because of the upcoming 2nd leg in the Copa next Wednesday, their streak of conceding at least one goal per game should continue.
Last point would be the H2H: Wouldn't read too much into it because both teams have changes since last season and improved a lot, but Recife won both matches last year and the 1st leg in Serie A this year, at Recife, ended with a 2-2 tie.
So in the end, in my opinion this line should be +0.5 at the most, would actually put them at +0.25. If Palmeiras were to rest players looking ahead to the Copa match, the fair line might even move all the way to +0 or -0.25. But unfortunately nobody will know for sure until Saturday because Palmeiras only practice session tomorrow will be closed for the public and therefore their starting formation should only be announced 1-2 hrs before kickoff. But even if they don't rest players, this line is off imo and I fully expect at least some players missing.
Palmeiras captain Ze Roberto might have always been one of the fittest and physically best prepared players, but that guy is 41 by now. So it might actually make sense, to give him the weekend off after having played last Wednesday, so that he is at 100% for the cup clash with Fluminense. Same would be true for 1-2 banged up players...and the win @Avai by their substitutes might be further incentive for the coach to bench regulars.
Sport Recife -0.5 +400 1unit
I played this last night at +107 and +480, one of my larger bets this year actually because I rarely go above 4 or 5 units for a single game. But this line is just off in my opinion and might be completely ridiculous by Saturday evening, which of corse doesn't mean by any means that this will be a winning bet. So remember to always bet within your means.
(Depending on the lineups, I might even add another 1/2 unit on Recife -1.5 +1050
Let's take a look at Palmeiras: They are currently in 5th place, fighting for one of the top4 spots that would allow them to play the Copa Libertadores next season. Despite the close fight for the top4 positions, they fielded a reserve team last Saturday in Florianopolis playing vs bottom team Avai because they wanted to rest their regulars for yesterdays Copa do Brasil match in Rio vs Fluminense. They still beat Avai handily by a score of 3-1, but Avai is playing terrible right now and were also missing three regulars due to suspension and several other players due to injury, while not having much depth on their roster due to a rather small budget. So I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that win since they showed lots of weak spots in their defense and a decent team would have taken those errors and scored because of them.
Why am I telling you all this? Well, if they rested their starters last Saturday before Wednesdays 1st leg in the Copa do Brasil, it only would make sense to do the same this Saturday vs Recife because next Wednesday they will play the 2nd leg at home vs Fluminense and after losing 2-1 in Rio, they have a great shot at advancing to the next round due to having lost by a margin of only one and having scored on the road.
Their coach already indicated today, that he prioritizes neither Serie A nor the Copa, but he said the same thing last week before resting his entire starting squad in their Serie A match.
Taking a look at both teams, Recife had the whole week off and are at full strength. They might have to bench Maikon Leite, one of their wingers, because he is loaned from Palmeiras and usually (in Brazil) there are gentlemen agreements in place that prohibit players from facing their original squad in that case. But since the CBF is trying to get rid of that practice, they might even be allowed to start him. Either way, missing him wouldn't be a huge problem in my opinion, since they have a very capable backup. Besides that, Regis is questionable, but expected to play. So you have Recife pretty much at full strength, with a full week of preparation and practices (rest early in the week, practice/preparation starting midweek) while Palmeiras had to travel to Rio, play the Copa match at Maracana, then travel back to Sao Paulo, where their return flight was actually delayed for a further 2hrs due to the horrific weather in Sampa. Thursday was a day off and they only will have a single practice session on Friday, which probably will be a reduced one to get the players some rest. Preparation was also clearly focused on the Copa match vs Flu early in the week, so you get a huge advantage for Recife in that regard.
So let's get to homefield advantage: Palmeiras is 9-3-3 at home, but lost their last match at home vs Ponte Preta 0-1. While 9-3-3 is a very decent/good home record, this game actually will be played in Pacaembu, not at their real home side, the Allianz Parque. So while they still will have an advantage due to fan support and knowing the pitch, it's a greatly reduced advantage because not only Recife had to travel to Sao Paulo but Palmeiras had to travel, too, because of the Copa. Because of the Copa the preparation advantage was completely reversed, with Recife having the advantage despite having to go on the road. And change of venue will reduce the advantage for the home team even further.
Some people at this point might have taken a look at Recifes road numbers and point to them being the only(!) winless team after 15 road games and that is absolutely correct but only tells half the truth: At the same time the got a draw 9 out of 15 times, meaning just from a statistical point of view, +0.75 would have been a winner 60% of the time, so getting plus money already looks attractive. Out of those 6 losses, they lost by a margin of 1 5 times, meaning +0.75 would have been a 50% loss and 50% push a further 5 times. The only loss by a margin of 2 came at Santos and FC Santos is the best home team and beat Recife by a score of 3-1, while Recife had two players sent off in that game.
Overall, out of 31 games so far, Recife has a 11-13-7 (wins/ties/losses) with only said game @Santos being lost by a difference larger than 1. So they were "in" pretty much every single game they played this year and had a chance to take points. And rarely ever goes a team winless on the road over the course of a whole season, especially a team that might end up in the top5...so they are kind of due for one...
Current form/recent performance also favors Recife: Since they aren't missing regular starters anymore, they have won 3 out of their last 4, incl. beating 2nd place team Atletico Mineiro 4-1 last Sunday as a +0.25 home underdog. Their only loss came at the hands of Internacional, who have a decent squad, and after Recife had to travel from Recife all the way to Argentina to play their Copa Sulamericana match there earlier that same week and then flying back to Porto Alegre to play Inter. So that was far from being an ideal spot for Sport and they lost by a score of 2-1, conceding the losing goal rather late in the 82nd minute.
Palmeiras on the other hand is 1-1-2 in their last 4 league matches: Last Saturday their reserve team beat a bad Avai team 3-1 on the road, they also got a decent result when they drew at Sao Paulo vs SPFC, but also lost their last home game vs a mediocre Ponte Preta team and got shelled 5-1 at bottom team Chapecoense two weeks ago.
Roster situation/injuries/suspensions: Like I already mentioned, Palmeiras might rest several if not almost all regulars because of the Copa, but even if they don't, they are still missing 3 regulars and one semi-regular due to injuries. Including Gabriel, who was a key player for them, especially in regards to set pieces: Once he went down, they had lots of problems defending set pieces and gave up a bunch of goals after corner or free kicks. Just happens that Recife is one of the most successful teams after said set pieces....They also will still be without Arouca, probably their best defensive midfielder and by far best defender when it comes to their transition game after turning over the ball. In general they are missing several midfielders and that might be another area, that will cause lots of trouble vs Recife: Recife has fast wingers and are one of the better counterattacking teams in Serie A. With the current state of Palmeiras midfield, they will get some space for their quick counter attacks and Palmeiras defense has struggled. Especially if they decided to rest either one of their two best (remaining) centre backs because of the upcoming 2nd leg in the Copa next Wednesday, their streak of conceding at least one goal per game should continue.
Last point would be the H2H: Wouldn't read too much into it because both teams have changes since last season and improved a lot, but Recife won both matches last year and the 1st leg in Serie A this year, at Recife, ended with a 2-2 tie.
So in the end, in my opinion this line should be +0.5 at the most, would actually put them at +0.25. If Palmeiras were to rest players looking ahead to the Copa match, the fair line might even move all the way to +0 or -0.25. But unfortunately nobody will know for sure until Saturday because Palmeiras only practice session tomorrow will be closed for the public and therefore their starting formation should only be announced 1-2 hrs before kickoff. But even if they don't rest players, this line is off imo and I fully expect at least some players missing.
Palmeiras captain Ze Roberto might have always been one of the fittest and physically best prepared players, but that guy is 41 by now. So it might actually make sense, to give him the weekend off after having played last Wednesday, so that he is at 100% for the cup clash with Fluminense. Same would be true for 1-2 banged up players...and the win @Avai by their substitutes might be further incentive for the coach to bench regulars.
