Palin Completely Wipes Out Dem Convention Bounce...Rassmussen Poll Shows

[Mistermj]

Obama's Bounce
POWERLINE
Rasmussen Reports shows Barack Obama with a four-point lead this morning. Last night was the first time Rasmussen's survey followed both Obama's convention speech and McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. While a few interviews would have been conducted Thursday night after Obama's speech, for practical purposes today's result reflects both the speech and Palin's nomination for the first time. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/da...

Since Rasmussen's margin was three points yesterday, the fact that it went up by only one point suggests that McCain's selection of Palin may have blunted the impact of Obama's acceptance speech, which was generally considered a success in political terms. If Obama really came out of his convention with only a four-point bounce, it's good news for Republicans.

SCOTT adds: Reader Avinash Singh comments:

If you compare the Rasmussen numbers before the start of the Dem convention and after the end, you could argue that there was no significant change in the polls at all.

Mon, Aug 25 (reflecting polling till Sunday), with "leaners" - Obama 48, McCain 45
Sat, Aug 30 (reflecting polling till Friday), with "leaners" - Obama 49, McCain 45.

The convention and the acceptance speech appear to have been a wash.

Rasmussen's numbers so far show a smaller bounce than Gallup, but Singh's observation may be worth keeping in mind in looking at the numbers over the next few days.

 

[tocco05]

Obama's Bounce
POWERLINE
Rasmussen Reports shows Barack Obama with a four-point lead this morning. Last night was the first time Rasmussen's survey followed both Obama's convention speech and McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. While a few interviews would have been conducted Thursday night after Obama's speech, for practical purposes today's result reflects both the speech and Palin's nomination for the first time. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/da...

Since Rasmussen's margin was three points yesterday, the fact that it went up by only one point suggests that McCain's selection of Palin may have blunted the impact of Obama's acceptance speech, which was generally considered a success in political terms. If Obama really came out of his convention with only a four-point bounce, it's good news for Republicans.

SCOTT adds: Reader Avinash Singh comments:

If you compare the Rasmussen numbers before the start of the Dem convention and after the end, you could argue that there was no significant change in the polls at all.

Mon, Aug 25 (reflecting polling till Sunday), with "leaners" - Obama 48, McCain 45
Sat, Aug 30 (reflecting polling till Friday), with "leaners" - Obama 49, McCain 45.

The convention and the acceptance speech appear to have been a wash.

Rasmussen's numbers so far show a smaller bounce than Gallup, but Singh's observation may be worth keeping in mind in looking at the numbers over the next few days.

 

[BetIt]

so can you have it both ways? i mean seriously....JOKE

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RX Senior



Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,201


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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> LOL...its only been one day.

You can't have a poll yet...its a holiday weekend...half the country doesn't even know yet. LOL!

So desperate...its funny.
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[Mistermj]

No joke...even with only half the people at home Palin took away the Dem convention bounce.

Nothing hard to understand about that.

 

[Samhain]

She wiped out Hussein's speech full of lies that the sheep bought !

 

[Seymour]

zogby has mcain/palin ahead 47-45

I don't see this - but this is great news - if true, I'll quit sweating this election - can you provide a link

 

[D2bets]

Throughout all the noise, the market has remained pretty firmly 60/40 Obama odds. For all the hoopla, maybe nothing has really changed all that much.

 

[BetIt]

I don't see this - but this is great news - if true, I'll quit sweating this election - can you provide a link

one day of polling

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html

 

[Seymour]

D2B, let's be real - McCain had taken the leading prior to the DNC - coming back from a double digit deficit - it looked beyond awful for Dems - now they have their little bounce lead which we all know will quickly wane

 

[tocco05]

Throughout all the noise, the market has remained pretty firmly 60/40 Obama odds. For all the hoopla, maybe nothing has really changed all that much.

What were the Palin odds?

 

[Seymour]

Something similar to ECU today.

 

[Mistermj]

Throughout all the noise, the market has remained pretty firmly 60/40 Obama odds. For all the hoopla, maybe nothing has really changed all that much.

LOL...the same market that didn't see Sarah Palin coming?

:cripwalk:

 

[D2bets]

LOL...the same market that didn't see Sarah Palin coming?

:cripwalk:

Choice of VP is an entirely different dynamic. One mans private unknown choice vs. an election that can be broken down and analyzed. Not saying the market is perfect, but they are really not analogous markets.

 

[Seymour]

D2B, what sayeth though? McCain already leads again

8/30/2008
Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce
<HR>UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=375 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>

[SIZE=+1]Data from this poll is available here​

[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.
In other words, the race is a dead heat.
The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.
After the McCain "Veep" announcement on Friday, Palin was almost immediately hailed as a strong conservative, and those voters have rallied to the GOP ticket, the survey shows. Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minnesota this week to officially nominate McCain and Palin as their presidential ticket.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width=307>

Does the selection of Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain's chances of winning the presidential election in November?​

</TD><TD width=77>

8/29-30​

</TD><TD width=204>

Zogby Poll One Week Ago: Does Biden Help or Hurt Obama?​

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Will help him
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=77>

52%​

</TD><TD width=204>

43%​

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Will hurt him
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=77>

29%​

</TD><TD width=204>

22%​

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Will make no difference
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=77>

10%​

</TD><TD width=204>

26%​

</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Not sure
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=77>

10%​

</TD><TD width=204>

9%​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Mistermj]

Choice of VP is an entirely different dynamic. One mans private unknown choice vs. an election that can be broken down and analyzed. Not saying the market is perfect, but they are really not analogous markets.

Ok fair enough D2...we disagree a lot.

But you have more class than nearly anyone here.

I respect your opinion. You make good points.

 

[guitarjosh]

Is this a rolling average like Gallup? If it is it might have some days before the Palin pick and the Obama speech.

 

[919]

USA Today/Gallup: Obama by 7 (50-43); CBS: Obama by 8 (48-40), Clear Convention Bounce

by DemFromCT

Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 03:10:25 PM PDT

This Registered Voter USA Today/Gallup poll includes Sat and Sun, so the Sarah Palin factor is present. It doesn't seem to matter much.

The Democratic National Convention significantly boosted Americans' views of Barack Obama as a strong leader who "shares your values" and can manage the economy and Iraq, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Saturday and Sunday finds.
Republican John McCain's advantage in handling terrorism was dramatically reduced and his "unfavorable" rating ticked up to its highest level this year.
"This is a convention bounce," says Robert Eisinger, a political scientist at Lewis & Clark College and author of The Evolution of Presidential Polling. The results reflect the impact of themes the Democrats hammered at their convention in Denver last week.
Eisinger cautions, "The Republicans haven't yet had their convention and John McCain will be exposed to a large segment of the population as well" with their convention this week. The GOP has had to deal with competing news events, however, including Hurricane Gustav and the disclosure Monday that vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's teenage daughter is pregnant.
In the head-to-head race between the candidates, Obama now leads 50%-43% among registered voters. In the USA TODAY poll taken Aug. 21-23, the Illinois senator held a four-point lead.
​

Polls are beginning to matter a bit more; next comes the damaged GOP convention.
In the meantime, check things like:

On personal characteristics, Obama has eliminated McCain's advantage over him as "a strong and decisive leader." By 46%-44%, those surveyed say that characteristic applies more to Obama than McCain. Before the convention, McCain held an eight-point advantage. Obama has a 13-point advantage as someone who "shares your values," double the edge he held before the convention. He has an eight-point advantage as someone who is "honest and trustworthy; before the convention, they were ranked equally on that quality.
​

Anyone who doesn't acknowledge the Dem convention as successful (y'know, people like David Brooks) is lying. But you knew that.
As for CBS (.pdf):

But few voters say that having Palin on the Republican ticket will change their vote much. Just 13% say they are more likely to vote for McCain as a result of having Palin on the ticket, while about as many say they are less likely to do so. 72% say it won’t make a difference in their vote.
​

See also:

Before the Democratic convention, McCain enjoyed a 12-point advantage with independent voters, but now Obama leads among this group 43 percent to 37 percent. Obama's lead among women has also grown to 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent), and the Democrat maintained the lead he had before the convention among voters who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.
​

Is it over? Of course not! We haven't even had the Republican convention, and McCain is raising a ton of money. And no, we are not overconfident. We can't be. We're Democrats. OTOH, we're looking at the tip of the iceberg in the unvetted and increasingly risky Sarah Palin, and the S.S. <DEL>Titanic</DEL> Bush/McCain has yet to maneuver around it. Until he does, McCain is stuck at his usual less than 45 no matter how excited social conservatives get. And even there, as it is

In the poll, Democrats continue to benefit from a "enthusiasm gap." By 57%-28%, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year. By 47%-39%, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are less enthusiastic than usual.
​

The next move belongs to the GOP, but competing with Palin stories and rumors is going to significantly hurt them.
That's right, the news is bad for Republicans. Get over it.
---
<SUP>Gallup:The survey of 2,035 adults has a margin of error of +/— 2 percentage points. The sample of 1,835 registered voters has an error margin of 3 points.
CBS: This poll was conducted among a random sample of 875 adults nationwide, including 781 registered voters, interviewed by telephone August 29-31, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points; for registered voters the sampling error could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.</SUP>

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[BetIt]

Just to play your game...

Here's this morning's Rasmussen tracking poll: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, outside of the ±2% margin of error. Obama was up 49%-46% yesterday,

 

[festeringZit]

Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.

 

[festeringZit]

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.

Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race.
www.politico.com