PAC10 Showdown Cal @ USC -7'

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Cal @ USC -7'
Big and only revenger for Trojans and it comes at a nice time as they are catching Cal off road revenger vs OSU Beavers. Cal was geared up to break 5 game losing streak versus Beavers and did just that with the help of Beavers QB Anderson. Both these teams are extremely talented on offense but the difference here lies with the defense and special teams. Neither team has faced imposing opponents but give the edge to USC who played road games at Va Tech (DC) and at BYU. Cal only road games were at young and inexperienced Air Force in the first game of the year and at mistake prone Oregon State as game vs USM was cancelled due to Hurricane.

The offenses are even, both run and pass very well and have experienced QB's. Both have experienced and saavy offense coordinators who run the show and make excellent in game adjustments. In LY game, Cal dominated the time of possession behind QB play of Reggie Robertson and RB Joe Echema. Remember, Rodgers was hammered in this game and eventually pulled in favor of Robertson at half who is more mobile and able to escape pressure. USC QB Lienhart had what was his worst day all season as he threw 3 picks and frequently overthrew open receivers. Cal was able to run the ball as Jo Echema gained 147 on the ground and he was the only RB to run for over 100 against SC.

Defense and special teams are a different story. SC has far better punting and kicking games than Cal. But this game is going to be won by the Trojan defense and it's ability to confuse Cal and make them change plays at the line of scrimmage. Another area that sticks out is the Turnover battle. Despite the below average talent that Cal has played this year where their opponents have been in obvious passing situations because they have been behind in the game, Cal is a woeful -1 on the turnover margin, forcing only 4 and giving up 5. You ask why this is important well the combined turnover margin of the teams that Cal has played is (-14). {OSU (-9), NMSU (-4), and AirForce (-1)}. AFA and NMSU are option teams the were behind big and Cal did not force TO's. OSU just has an idiot at QB. Expect USC to win the game in this aspect as they will force a turnover or two that will be cover difference in this game (I beleive).

This year SC is focused. HC Carroll admitted after last years game that he focused his defense too much on the pass and neglected the Cal run game. He took this and still does take this one personal. Carroll's goal each year is to win the championship of California and that starts with winning games versus instate rivals. In OT LY SC fumbled on a play running into the endzone in what would have been a game winning TD in OT and missed a FG. They also blocked a FG from Cal in OT.

It's open for debate, so let it begin. Back with other games later.

GL,

WinOne!!
 

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Say what you want about the Stanford win and the close game.

USC gave up almost 276 total yards in the 1st half. After the Norm Chow / Pete Carrol braintrust adjustments.....

USC holds Stanford to the tune of 36 total offensive yards!!!!!!

That in itself shows you who has the REAL defense on the field this weekend.
 

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2nd half adjustment for Trojans have been phenominal. LY in Cal game they were down 21-7 and held Cal to 3 pts in 3rd and 4th Qtr to give themselves a chance to get it to OT. Looking back at big games for SC last year in the 2nd half they gave up 14 to Michigan, 6 to WSU in what was Pac10 showdown of unbeatens, 7 to ASU in game that was 10-10 at half, and 3 to Cal. Those were games that mattered

WinOne!!
 

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Not that Cal has had great teams before HC Tedford came to town, but I gotta add that Cal is 7-2 ATS in last 9 visits to USC. Adding to that they have WON SU in 3 of last 4 trips to USC as road dogs ('00, '98, '96 SU Wins as dog). SC has been as dominant @ Berkeley during the same period with LY being the exception. They typically get up for the Trojans when they play in LA.

WinOne!!
 

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Trust me this'll be the most entertaining game of the afternoon. By the 2nd half USC will pull away and win by a minimum 2 TD's.

As mentioned in a previous thread, This is Southern Cal's most important game of the season. They want nothing less than a convincing win. By doing so it'll squash any debate is to who is the undisputed #1 team in the country come January.

Pound it.
 

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I haven't heard anyone mention USC's bye week but everyone saw what 3 weeks off did for Cal. and look what happened. Last year Cal's win over the Trojans left a lot of LSU supporters arguing how good they were to no avail because that showdown never happened. Cal is the reason why. No doubt that USC has a point to make in this game. That plus the bye week to focus on this game says a lot to me about USC's mindset and preparedness for this game.

I hope everyone piles on the Bears because when the piling is all done, I'll be sitting there at the bottom of that pile laying less than a TD for the Trojans to cover. C'mon all you Cal supporters, let's see you lay down your money... I want more value!!!
 

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Conan,

I definately agree with you. The fact that the line dropped 3 pts in 36 hrs is proof that early money hammered Cal. They are the chic pick here. It is amazing how over the last 2 plus years when a challenger has stepped up to face SC they have swatted them away with little or no effort. This game is won in the trenches, on the D Line and with special teams. Cal has to go the entire field all day long. Not sure they are disciplined enough to do this when either the pass or the run is taken away.

WinOne!!
 

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I want to see one person who has Cal +10...I watched that line come down on four different offshore accounts and it started at -7.5. LVSC may have posted 10 to gauge bettors reactions, but very few if any got it at this number.
 
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yea i would kind of like to see a ticket myself where the line was a t 10.



not that i don't believe anyone, but i know the vegas insider will post **** like that and then the line is not available.



does anyone have the box score from last years game between usc and cali.

i would love to see what the recievers who are now gone did in that game, and how rodgers played until he got taken out.

i thought he got hurt, not pulled. youplay him for a full game vs anyone and he is going to put up 30+ points. i don't think usc can keep up.


losing that stud on the dline will be huge factor in this game.
 

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WC Bias:

Regarding the opening line on this game, I'll refer you to not only my thread, as I got Cal at +9.5 at Cris when it opened to the public, but Omahamoneymakers thread as well as he got +8.5. Omaha had indicated he saw the line at +10 at Olympic but while trying to place his bet, the movement was so rapid that he was shown a change to +9, so he moved on to Pinnacle where it wasn't any better and went back to Olympic and took +8.5. We were both on top of the lines the moment they were posted for the public on Sunday evening. Off the Don Best Premium Service, they were actually offered, not to the public, initially at +11.5. Within 10 minutes of the opening to the public, the line quickly dropped to +7.5. Finally, if you note WoodyO's comment in my thread, Cal could have been taken today at Pinnacle at +9 (-114) which I checked to be true shortly after his response. Lastly, you might want to even look at the "Live Lines" opener and you will find it at +9. In summary, the line was available, but was hit so hard in the first 10 minutes, +7.5 became the norm across the board. Best of luck this coming weekend.
 
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oldmanted,

i have an account with pinny and no time today did i ever see it at above 7 or 7-.

not saying that you are lying in any way, i either missed it within minutes, or they are posting different numbers for others.

but i checked the line at least ten times from last night through tonight.


regardless it won't matter, calif wins this game boys.
 

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Truely:

You are correct. It was at +7.5 and -102. WoodyO stated to use the drop down menu and at +9, it was -114. I should have been more clear. I did check it out when he mentioned it, and it was, in fact available with the buy. Currently, +8.5 (-118) is available. I'm with you on this one. Should be a great game.
 
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what in the hell are talking about drop down menu.





i need to spend a day and look at my online book, and figure out what the hell is going on.





missed that, another dollar short for shorty.





just going to stick to local, all this talk of sharps, drop down menus is giving me a headache.:breakit:
 

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Truely:

First, you have to log in to your account. Then click on NCAA, scan to page two for the Cal/USC game. Just to the right of the line you will see an arrow, which is the drop down menu. You will note different lines for the game which you can choose. This feature allows you another way to directly buy points or select a line without having to click on the "Buy Points" tab at the top of the page.
 

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how is the USC offensive line? They didnt look so well earlier in the year.
 

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Not flaming...not calling anyone a liar.

I watched the lines come down on Olympic sunday afternoon. Was sometime after the 2nd round of NFL games. The lines come down in rotation order. LVSC posted early lines before OLY so I had the games circled to pounce. The USC game came down at -7.5 at Oly. Pinni's lines come down a couple hours later and it came down at USC-7.5.

I guess I'd like to know how many here saw the line at Oly at anything other than 7.5 on sunday night....I doubt highly they would or could put out different lines in different areas of the country....but.
 

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I don't think it matters what the # was? It wasn't the public that drove that # down at the open. If you got a better # then 7.5 great, but if you are trying to judge which way the public is going on this you can't base it on the first move that early.
 

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Good discussion, Fellas. In any marquee game between 2 great teams, you have to think about taking the dog + the points.....but I am leaning toward the Trojans - 7 here. They have been waiting for this game for a year. I actually won with Stanford at home 2 weeks ago vs. the Trojans, but USC hasn't had much motivation after steamrolling opponents for weeks on end. They will be pumped this Saturday. Keep the discussion going.
 

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