Pac-12 - USC-Stanford

[Conan]

I've given this game a lot of thought and what this all boils down to is who can run and who can't.

Control of the game in most match-ups is determined by the teams that can maintain ball control and time of possession.
Simply stated, if you don't have the ball, you probably won't score. Aside from opening up a passing game, one part of
the running game seems to play a huge role in who wins and how bad. (usually) It uses up clock in a very productive way.

That sums up exactly how and why Stanford wins this. Among other things, they lead everyone in TOP. I'm pretty sure
David Webb has this system down pat. Throw in Christin McCaffrey and it's bye bye USC. Finish them with a 6'4" tall WR
in Davon Cajuste and we cash.

Stanford-4.5/USC

 

[MoneyMiller]

Bol conan, think their o-line paves the way @ home.

34-24 Trees!

 

[Addicted2quack]

Little worried about the trees coming off that crazy ND finish and having a slight lapse the first quarter. I'm not saying they won't be focused, because I'm assuming any team playing for a conference title will be, but USC is pretty enfuego right now. Stanfords defense has been suspect all season, allowing a lot more yards, drives and rushing yards than in years past. A lot of matchup problems for them playing USC. Should be interesting, just not sure if I'll play that game at the line it's at right now. Hope it swing more by kick off, one way or the other

 

[mudman]

Good luck

 

[indiana]

Conan.........thank you, how is the rehab coming along...........hope all is well...........BOL this week end............indy

 

[METFAN]

AGREE ..GOOD LUCK and thank you for posting Conan

 

[Incubus]

Best of luck, Conan, with your Stanford play. I genuinely believe the success of your play will be predicated on whether or not the Cardinal can stuff the Trojans' rushing attack. If they do, Stanford should win and in all probability cover ATS. If not, USC will have the opportunity to control the game and have a punchers chance to not only cover but win outright.

When USC lost 41-31 to Stanford in September, they ran the ball 28 times for 155 yards. Not bad, but not enough to control the game. Against UCLA, USC ran the ball 59 times for 235 yards. Now that's controlling a game.

Stanford's run defense appears to be showing some cracks as the season progresses. In the Oregon loss, they allowed 231 yards rushing on 36 carries. In the Notre Dame game, the Irish only needed 3 quarters to eclipse that number. The Irish finished with 299 yards rushing on 35 carries.

I expect USC to come out and do their best to establish the run. If they can, they control the clock. If Stanford stuffs the run, then I see USC getting in trouble.
This will be a great game. Best of luck on your play! :toast:

 

[russ1945]

This is one of those games where TO's may be a big factor.

 

[Conan]

Here's an interesting piece about a stat I hadn't heard of before.... "percentage of available yards"

It starts with field position after receiving a punt or a kickoff or recovering a fumble etc.
How many yards to pay dirt is the "available" part, how many yards an offense manages to
rack up on the drive determines the percentage of available yards gained.

It turns out that Stanford leads the nation in this particular stat.

Read on:

The Pac-12 title game features a rematch between Stanford and USC, a game the Cardinal won back in September by a final score of 41-31. Stanford's ball-control offense was exceptional in that game. With the exception of one three-and-out in the second half and a kneel-down to end the game, the Cardinal offense gained at least 25 yards on every drive and earned at least 50 yards on 75 percent of them. After falling behind 28-24 in the third quarter, Stanford's next three drives covered 77 yards in 10 plays, 46 yards in 11 plays, and 52 yards in 11 plays and netted 17 points. USC ran only 11 plays total and scored three points in the same span.

One measure of offensive efficiency is available yards, the total number of yards earned on offensive drives divided by the number of yards available based on starting field position. An offense that scores a touchdown on every drive would earn 100 percent of available yards. Stanford leads the nation in available yards percentage (64 percent), and they went over 70 percent in four straight games starting with that USC victory in week 3.

Thanks in large part to Christian McCaffrey, Stanford typically gains the yards that are available to be gained. Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY SportsThat game was also the only time all season that USC allowed an opponent to earn a higher available yards percentage than Stanford's average of 64 percent. If the Trojans can hold the Cardinal offense to an available yards percentage under 50 percent (as they did in every victory this season), they'll have a chance.

 

[WinOne]

I think SC wins and covers this game. I think they've played Stanford well the past few years and the stability at coaching can only help them. If USC can spy on Hogan and prevent him from converting 3rd downs with his legs, SC will have a great shot. I also think SC can get the ball downfield against the Stanford secondary. McCaffrey is gonna get his yards, but make him work for it and you can slow down Stanford. I see it 41-35 SC.

 

[rolltide]

If the Trojans can hold the Cardinal offense to an available yards percentage under 50 percent (as they did in every victory this season), they'll have a chance.

OAY vs DAY is a good stat to look at for any matchup and here you have Stanford's #1 OAY vs SC's #69 DAY but Stanford's DAY is just #62 (USC OAY is in the 20's). sounds like some points coming to me....

not quite as big of a diff as Bama vs Florida but up there. Florida's OAY is #89 vs Bama's #1 DAY (Florida's DAY is #3 so field position will be ultra-important in that game...don't expect many 80 yard drives)

 

[GoSooners]

I think SC wins and covers this game. I think they've played Stanford well the past few years and the stability at coaching can only help them. If USC can spy on Hogan and prevent him from converting 3rd downs with his legs, SC will have a great shot. I also think SC can get the ball downfield against the Stanford secondary. McCaffrey is gonna get his yards, but make him work for it and you can slow down Stanford. I see it 41-35 SC.

SC is much improved running the ball the last few weeks. Freshman Ronald Jones is the real deal.

 

[memphis]

Conan good to see you broheimer and thanks for your input, that 1.5 is a little interesting to me, glad to see your insight


Memphy

 

[GETTINGPAYPER]

Stanford D is getting exposed. I think OVER is the best play in this one. BOL

 

[Conan]

Quarterbacks ... Hogan = Kessler no advantage.

Between Adoree Jackson and Christian McCaffrey both defenses will have someone to watch out for (or else).
The big difference is their supporting cast of other offensive weapons, especially their OL's. I'm afraid that
Stanford owns the beef here, though the Trojans have looked better as the season played out. But not all of
USC's victories were as they appeared. Their better opponents were playing with rosters that had been
compromised. Their healthy opponents (like Stanford) beat the snot out of them. Oregon mowed down USC
and so did the Pirate and his Coogs did so @ the Colosseum no less.

USC's win vs. UCLA was more of a grudge match.

 

[Conan]

3 penalties against the Trees inside the USC 6 yard line held them to a FG.
You won't see that happen twice this century.

 

[memphis]

3 penalties against the Trees inside the USC 6 yard line held them to a FG.
You won't see that happen twice this century.

omg huh ugh we get this bro

 

[Conan]

So far the game has been played just as I thought. USC's run blocking sucks thus far. Must have been a long bus ride or something?
Stanford's McCaffrey (and a couple other Stanford RB's) running the ball 7 to 23 yards per crack. (The stadium is just 15 min. from Palo Alto.)
USC can't ot do anything to stop Stanford's rushing game.

Offensively, this game has been Stanford, Stanford, USC, Stanford, Stanford, Stanford, USC, Stanford, Stanford.... etc.
David Shaw looks very mellow standing on the sidelines. Everything he's doing is working.

First Q TOP (pretty sick)
Stanford - 12 min. 35 sec.
USC -- 2 min. 25 sec.

 

[memphis]

boom td yup

 

[cloverleaf]

I liked Stanford before the season started and like them now.

Never seen so many 'white' boys on a top division I team.

He won't win the Heisman, but that little RB for Stanford should be in the top 3.