PAC 12 Championship

[JohnBlue123]

Made a 5 unit play on the under 74 in this game. I was waiting for it climb as expected. I think it should hold rather steady in the low 70s.

Everything points to a high shooting affair given the history of the programs. However, neither has played on the shitty turf of the nee Levi Stadium. Yes, that is how I am handicapping this game. In this inagural season at Levi Stadium the one glaring issue has been the shitty field/sod condition. Chunks are visibly still coming off and players don't get the proper footing. I think this has affected the timing of the receivers that have played there this year. I don't think it's glaringly obvious in the 49ers game totals because they play a defensive style of football.

With these two college offensive teams the linesmakers have set the total the same as it would have been at a site with good field conditions like Oregon and Arizona's stadiums which use field turf. The wet conditions will only exacerbate the problems. One would think that bigger cleats would be the solution. In this case, the field will just get torn up and not help with footing.

I look for a game in the 50s or 60s.

 

[NoCoke]

Oregon played California in Levi's Stadium this year and won 59-41.

 

[JohnBlue123]

Oregon played California in Levi's Stadium this year and won 59-41.

Yes, but that was in good conditions. It will have been raining in northen California for a week straight by gametime on Friday. I know they cover the fields but it will be less than ideal field conditions.

 

[Addicted2quack]

Something to think about. And I'm not trying to persuade your pick by any means, but bad field conditions favor the offense. The defense doesn't have the ability to plant and cut to keep up with receivers and tackle ball carriers... Same thing when it snows... It makes it difficult to stay with the offensive player... I remember last season i played the under on 4 NFL games, all were outdoor games with a lot of snow... They all went over by 7+ points... One game went over by 18 i think... Wet field conditions favor an offense because of those reasons. Now obviously if it's torrential downpour or crazy wind gusts, etc etc, then yes that's a different situation to warrant a strong play on the under... But in this situation I wouldn't personally make that decision based upon rain. These are two explosive offenses, im playing oregon -13.5....Revenge game, lots of oregon fans will make that 10hr trip... Hard to believe a lot of Tucson people will flock towards rain.... Oregonians live in that everyday, and I would know, I'm from there lol. Bol on your play tho, for both our sake I hope it's a 45-20 win oregon lol

 

[pathologist]

Oregon will bury Arizona

 

[pathologist]

I also think in the bigger picture that the pac, sec, and acc will have their teams that are in the playoffs all but assured a win Saturday. I will be extremely surprised to see any upsets in these 3 games. The point spread who knows

 

[DC.]

Any line over 14 is a zona play...oregon will not "bury them"

 

[Addicted2quack]

Agree to disagree, I think oregon stomps arizona... But hey we will see on Friday !

 

[JohnBlue123]

All healthy discussion. My thi king was that oregon would dominate offensively and defensively leading to a score of oregon in the thirties and arizona in the teens.

 

[Addicted2quack]

I agree. Arizona should score a few times but this game has all trappings of a massacre. Mark helfrich doesn't run the score up, which sometimes pisses me off, but he's a classy dude. I think they wreck arizona in the first half and coast just like they did in the civil war. I doubt any Fg's are kicked this game, 42-21 is my guess... If helfrich decided to send a message for some reason it could be ugly....but he won't

 

[DC.]

Oregon by 10 or less imo...give me 2tds + and im on zona

 

[JohnBlue123]

All healthy discussion. My thi king was that oregon would dominate offensively and defensively leading to a score of oregon in the thirties and arizona in the teens.

Guys, I had laid off on the side play in this game but I can no longer do that. 15 points may be a sucker bet but I have to take Arizona +2 TDs. My initial thought was that this would be a revenge game for oregon but it looks like oregon will struggle to win. I still like oregon outright but not ATS. I think it stays within single digits.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

The field will be a mess. While it is true that the offense normally has an advantage in rainy conditions, the field still must stand up to the elements. Levi Stadium is notorius for not being able to do so. Also remember that this field is the home of the 49ers, who do not exactly pile up the points. The 49ers are a slow, grind it out type of team, so slow field conditions help them. The total has never gone over 48 points in any 49er home game this season. The Under is the play IMO.

 

[REDEYE]

took the +14 1/2.. hedging my Ducks Pac 12 Championship future play & my 13/1 to win it all future..

 

[cashflow50]

aint solomon still hobbled by that ankle?

 

[MackDonald]

Yes, but that was in good conditions. It will have been raining in northen California for a week straight by gametime on Friday. I know they cover the fields but it will be less than ideal field conditions.

They say when it rains in Northern California at this time of the year it gets muddier than a son-of-bitch...

 

[ldabdou]

The field will be a mess. While it is true that the offense normally has an advantage in rainy conditions, the field still must stand up to the elements. Levi Stadium is notorius for not being able to do so. Also remember that this field is the home of the 49ers, who do not exactly pile up the points. The 49ers are a slow, grind it out type of team, so slow field conditions help them. The total has never gone over 48 points in any 49er home game this season. The Under is the play IMO.

The field will be perfect! It hasn't rained much in the last couple of days...Levi Stadium Notorious for not doing so? There's been one game played there while it rained so that's not a much of a sample of statistics..What does the 49ers have anything to do with the total in this game?

 

[JohnBlue123]

The field will be perfect! It hasn't rained much in the last couple of days...Levi Stadium Notorious for not doing so? There's been one game played there while it rained so that's not a much of a sample of statistics..What does the 49ers have anything to do with the total in this game?

49ers nothing. Purely the turf itself. Crappy turf plus a little wet weather = unsure footing. This is not a huge play for me but that's how I'm playing this one.

 

[rowdyroddy]

ducks are 1 win away from playoff - they will drop 50 if they can.
Oregon and over is only logical angle.
ducks 47 - zona 31

 

[JohnBlue123]

Oregon played California in Levi's Stadium this year and won 59-41.

No one has any respect for Cal's defense. It's a joke. I think this game will be played with more conventional coaching decisions which will lead to some punting in this game. Thqt's all I ask for tonight is a less than average but non-existent level of punting. I think we'll see that tonight.