Pac 10 week one 2009

[UoweDucks]

2007 46-26-1 (64%) +18.5 units
2008 40-33-1 (55%) +9 units
All plays documented here.

Last year I put several bets in this early and it worked out well. I am doing so again. I believe that some of these lines will not last. So here are my bets and current leans. I welcome all constructive commentary.

For starters here my season total bets:
ASU UNDER 6.5 wins (-110) 1 unit
USC UNDER 10.5 wins (-170) 1/2 unit

Ore +6 @ BSU: I was so surprised to see this line that I decided to set up shop with the book. I've got weeks to get into the reasoning here (it's not like I haven't already in the P10 thread) but I think this line settles at around 3, I may add to this as camp progresses and I may look to middle once it begins to drop. 1 unit I will also be taking OVER 60.5 for .5 unit

Stanford -15 @ WSU: I am very close to committing at this number. For now I am going to let it settle a bit to see what happens in fall camp.However I do like this: UNDER 56, .5 unit This is a lot of points for two teams that should be looking to emphasize their respective rushing attacks. I see a 32-17 type game here.

USC-35 vs SJst: Blah. Big line here it will probably hit but I most likely will ignore. USC will play this game close to the vest with OSU looming.

CMU +12.5 @ AZ: I was hoping for 14 but that looks unlikely now. It is a no play at this price, if I can get 2 tds I'll probably take a small bite. I am currently attracted to the total of 55. Here is an AZ team which will be breaking in two new QB's. They will place a high priority in getting their running game in place, CMU has a respectable run D and given the newness of the AZ qb's I think that they can sell out a bit on the run. CMU has an able QB but he will be facing a very good secondary. I just don't see a lot of points here in game one. We'll see how this munber moves.

UCLA -18 vs SDST: No play for me. Too many unknowns on the UCLA offense to lay that number at this stage.

Maryland +21 @ CAL: This is a VERY high number. Perhaps a TD higher than I would have anticipated. It is actually tempting to me to be the contrarian but I wouldn't commit to it at this early date.

UW +16 vs LSU: Again I was hoping for a higher number here. I think that this line will rise as the game nears. I'll be interested in grabbing UW if so. As for the total of 53, I think it goes over that number but I'll hold for now.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

bet san jose at +36 as i agree usc will play close-to-vest with road trip to columbus the following week. san jose has some returning talent and i like their coach.

 

[SoonerBS]

Ducks, I'm going to have to disagree with you on the CMU bet. I hope it goes down even further because that will increase the value on Arizona. I don't think Scott will have to be real good for Arizona to win this game by 2 or 3 TDs.

Consider this, who did CMU beat last year in BCS conferences? They only played two: Georgia and Purdue. They got riddled by Georgia and that was to be expected, but they also got beat by a TD against a horrible Purdue team. Here's the kicker: CMU brought back 16 returning starters last year and 14 starters back in 2007. What does that mean? This is essentially the same team that has been getting waxed by BCS teams for 2 years straight!

MAC teams just don't do well against BCS non-conference teams. Plus, their defense allowed 30.2 ppg last season and that was in the MAC conference, too. What is Arizona likely to do against them? CMU can't put any pressure on the new QB, but I can guarantee you that Arizona's defense will put pressure on veteran QB, Dan LeFevour. In fact, early practices have reported that no one has been able to block the defensive ends in practice for the Wildcats (of course, that could be a statement against Arizona's offensive line, too.)

Sometimes we tend to get too caught up in "returning experience." Returning experience in the MAC doesn't always stack up well against half the returning experience of BCS schools. Bottom line here is that CMU might be good in the MAC this season, but they will likely be good fade material in out of conference games against BCS schools.

 

[SoonerBS]

bet san jose at +36 as i agree usc will play close-to-vest with road trip to columbus the following week. san jose has some returning talent and i like their coach.

It didn't matter to USC last year whenever they played Virginia before the Ohio State game, Woofy. 36 points IS a lot of points though, but they play it at home. I probably will not play it myself, but a game opener is a game opener and I don't put much stock into "lookahead" situations in these games. Fact is, they have been looking ahead to this opener for 6 months now . . . . as every team does.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

bs, imo usc isnt the same team this year they have been since 2002 but again are laying very large # week 1.

sjst has a sr qb that was originally pac 10 caliber with cal, a pair of 6'4" wr, excellent coaching staff, 53 lettermen, and solid along both lines.

top ? for sjst is db and thinking usc just doesnt go downfield as early or often in this spot.

 

[Conan]

The totals seem a little loose considering that so many of the Pac-10 teams have improved defenses to go along with new QB's.

Aside from possibly 2 of the above, I think I'll be on the hunt for a couple of totals to round out the week. I really think that the Oregon/Boise game will be a nailbiter right up to the last series of downs. Either that or the Ducks rushing game will blow away Boise and the Duck defense will play a better game than people anticipate. I believe they will be have some success putting pressure on Kellen Moore.

 

[UoweDucks]

I tend to agree with you dawoof but I just don't want to have anything at stake in the game. It stems from my not feeling comfortable enough with SJst's personel. You are right on the coach however.

SoonersBS,
We'll see. You may be right on both accounts, AZ oline lost their best guy and without establishing a passing game I fear CMU can load it up and apply pressure on the young qb.

We can talk history on AZ side as well with them losing to new mexico early last year...

 

[Conan]

bs, imo usc isnt the same team this year they have been since 2002 but again are laying very large # week 1.

sjst has a sr qb that was originally pac 10 caliber with cal, a pair of 6'4" wr, excellent coaching staff, 53 lettermen, and solid along both lines.

top ? for sjst is db and thinking usc just doesnt go downfield as early or often in this spot.

I do like the way SJSU has shaped up this year Woof, especially their QB Reed. Peopel EXPECT him to step up this fall camp... let's just say they hope he will. I do too.

One word of caution though, aside from the fact that USC's defense took major hits, they will wind up in the top 10 anyway. To complicate matters in this game, SJSU hired a new OC, Terry Malley and the whole playbook is new. That means there will be limited plays available to the Spartan offense, new blocking assignments et al. and this is game 1. Not good. They will likely be held to under 10 points just because USC's defense can.

This could be Corp's chance (I think he starts) to cement the job with a more aggressive offensive coordinator and Carroll calling the plays. It's only a matter of when Carroll decides to call off the dogs as to what the final score will be but then again Barkley might play the last 8 minutes and then all bets on SJSU could be kaput anyway.

 

[Conan]

PS Ducks, recheck your messages.

 

[Delta00]

bs, imo usc isnt the same team this year they have been since 2002 but again are laying very large # week 1.

sjst has a sr qb that was originally pac 10 caliber with cal, a pair of 6'4" wr, excellent coaching staff, 53 lettermen, and solid along both lines.

top ? for sjst is db and thinking usc just doesnt go downfield as early or often in this spot.

Don't confuse Kyle Reed with a Pac-10 Caliber QB, he might have went to Cal, but they realized their mistake soon, he is miserable and wouldn't crack the 2 deep at any pac-10 school, probably not even wazzu

 

[fivestarjake]

gl ducks. i'm very interested in seeing where that washington line ends up. i'm liking a 1st half bet with huskies.

 

[GoSooners]

Ducks, I'm going to have to disagree with you on the CMU bet. I hope it goes down even further because that will increase the value on Arizona. I don't think Scott will have to be real good for Arizona to win this game by 2 or 3 TDs.

Consider this, who did CMU beat last year in BCS conferences? They only played two: Georgia and Purdue. They got riddled by Georgia and that was to be expected, but they also got beat by a TD against a horrible Purdue team. Here's the kicker: CMU brought back 16 returning starters last year and 14 starters back in 2007. What does that mean? This is essentially the same team that has been getting waxed by BCS teams for 2 years straight!

MAC teams just don't do well against BCS non-conference teams. Plus, their defense allowed 30.2 ppg last season and that was in the MAC conference, too. What is Arizona likely to do against them? CMU can't put any pressure on the new QB, but I can guarantee you that Arizona's defense will put pressure on veteran QB, Dan LeFevour. In fact, early practices have reported that no one has been able to block the defensive ends in practice for the Wildcats (of course, that could be a statement against Arizona's offensive line, too.)

Sometimes we tend to get too caught up in "returning experience." Returning experience in the MAC doesn't always stack up well against half the returning experience of BCS schools. Bottom line here is that CMU might be good in the MAC this season, but they will likely be good fade material in out of conference games against BCS schools.

BS...I also think that the situational angle has to be taken into strong consideration here. Arizona is still a BCS team with something to prove. They shouldn't come out flat for this game. CMU should have the Cats full attention since all they have is Northern Arizona the next week.

It's true that CMU could stack the line in this game. And probably will as part of their gameplan. I think the question is will it be enough to slow down Zona? CMU played Indiana last year. And Indiana was primarily a team who rushed for more yards than they passed in most of their games. I'm sure CMU had the same kind of gameplan for that game, but Indiana still rushed for 263 yards. And Purdue rushed for 272 yards on this defense. I think the only reason to like CMU in this spot is to think that they can score enough points on offense to cover the line. But I don't like any line here that is less than 14. And even then i think their chances are small at covering this first game.

I still think the best spot for CMU could be the week after Zona when they play Michigan St. The key to that game is how bad CMU loses this game. I've found that the linesmakers can sometimes undervalue these MAC teams too much after they lose to a BCS team early on. And down the road they become a better play. CMU is actually a halfway decent ATS team against BCS conference teams. The last 5 years they are 7-6-1 ATS. And 2-1 ATS last season. More than likely helped by their big erly season loss to Georgia.

 

[SunDodger]

Why is the line so high on Boise St.? It opens at -5.5 and gets bet upward? Hmm. I thought it would be closer to -3.0, also. Must be their 56-2 home record over the last 9 seasons. But, Oregon has to be the toughest non-conference opponent they've ever hosted. The Ducks are the only team standing in their way of an undefeated season. If it goes to -7.0, I may have to bite.


The Greek opened with Washington at +17.5 and before I even had a chance to think about it, it dropped to +15.5. I guess I'll have to wait till right before kick-off now. Maybe, it will get bet back up.

 

[SoonerBS]

BS...I also think that the situational angle has to be taken into strong consideration here. Arizona is still a BCS team with something to prove. They shouldn't come out flat for this game. CMU should have the Cats full attention since all they have is Northern Arizona the next week.

It's true that CMU could stack the line in this game. And probably will as part of their gameplan. I think the question is will it be enough to slow down Zona? CMU played Indiana last year. And Indiana was primarily a team who rushed for more yards than they passed in most of their games. I'm sure CMU had the same kind of gameplan for that game, but Indiana still rushed for 263 yards. And Purdue rushed for 272 yards on this defense. I think the only reason to like CMU in this spot is to think that they can score enough points on offense to cover the line. But I don't like any line here that is less than 14. And even then i think their chances are small at covering this first game.

I still think the best spot for CMU could be the week after Zona when they play Michigan St. The key to that game is how bad CMU loses this game. I've found that the linesmakers can sometimes undervalue these MAC teams too much after they lose to a BCS team early on. And down the road they become a better play. CMU is actually a halfway decent ATS team against BCS conference teams. The last 5 years they are 7-6-1 ATS. And 2-1 ATS last season. More than likely helped by their big erly season loss to Georgia.

I missed Indiana as a BCS team they played, and actually beat . . . . . . by 3 points, lol.

CMU has not really changed that many faces over the last 3 years. I think a team that struggled with Indiana and got beat by Purdue last season, is way overvalued traveling across country to the hot temperatures of Tuscon. Stoops believes that he has his best defense ever out there this year. CMU is not that impressive against really good defenses. They may struggle to score 10 points in this game.

 

[Fezzik]

LOL, "USC KILLED Virg" week 1 prior to Ohio State Week2

.....uh......Virg was a real opponent, and USC was only laying 19, and no reason not to go balls out to crush them 1h, so to rest up in the 2nd half.

2007 is the relevant game. WIth a game on deck @ Nebraska, USC played one of the worst teams in the country, Idaho.

Laying 47 they scored only 38. And looked like they had no talent or interest. 1 week later they morphed into the greatest team I've ever seen ripping the Huskers a new one.

THAT is the carbon copy game, 2007 vs. 2009. One difference. SjST is a LOT better than Idaho, and USC 09 not as good as USC 07.

EZ CONCLUSION: SJST or pass.

 

[Conan]

.....uh......Virg was a real opponent, and USC was only laying 19, and no reason not to go balls out to crush them 1h, so to rest up in the 2nd half.

2007 is the relevant game. WIth a game on deck @ Nebraska, USC played one of the worst teams in the country, Idaho.

Laying 47 they scored only 38. And looked like they had no talent or interest. 1 week later they morphed into the greatest team I've ever seen ripping the Huskers a new one.

THAT is the carbon copy game, 2007 vs. 2009. One difference. SjST is a LOT better than Idaho, and USC 09 not as good as USC 07.

EZ CONCLUSION: SJST or pass.

But was Idaho breaking in a new OC like SJSU is this season? I don't think even he knows the playbook much less his QB or anyone else on the offense. The only way USC doesn't cover here is if SJSU scores more than 14 points and that won't happen. However USC scoring 48 probably won't happen either so it's a pass. This line looks tight.

 

[UoweDucks]

gl ducks. i'm very interested in seeing where that washington line ends up. i'm liking a 1st half bet with huskies.

Thx Jake,
Agree! This is something that I mentioned a few months back (UW 1st half bet). I anticipate the huskies coming out strong then with their lack of depth wilt late.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

The one game that we played in the Pac 10 was UCLA, and we gave 17 points. The line opened at -24. We love to see Joe Pub and his money going down on at team that cannot cover a Pac 10 team to save their lives. UCLA had injury problems all of last season, so this will be the first time in many a month that UCLA will have it's starting line up on the field intact. San Diego State has a terrible defense. They simply do not have the talent to stay with offenses for 4 quarters. They also must get used to a new system with a new DC, as well as a new HC. In time, they will improve, but game 1 is not enough time. UCLA is looking to get momentum for their trip to Knottsville the following week.

We can't figure out why Stanford went from -19 to -15. Is anyone aware of any injuries to Stanford? If this line drops to -14, it may cause some serious interest.

I guess the whole world thinks Cal is very good. Our number was -17, but going up to 21 is a lot. Someone asked me who was going to play on Maryland. I guess the answer is not too many people. Pass.

Oregon fans. Why all the love for Boise? The line could hit 7 shortly. Is it because of Oregon's lack of defense? Do they not think that Masoli is the real deal? Is it the Blue turf? I know that Oregon has a lot of holes to fill, but so does Boise. I guess everyone is impressed with Boise's great home record, built on games against a bunch of nobodies, and no one remembers that Oregon is 9-1 ATS in their first away game for the past 10 years. There are a lot of Oregon fans in here. Is anyone going to grab 7 if the line climbs that high?

Washington is getting a lot of love because of their new HC and Locker's return. The fact of the matter is that they will sitll be lucky to win more than two games. By now, the entire world knows to play Washington in the first half and fade them in the second half. This is a pattern that they have gone through at home for two years now. If the line drops back to 14, I would suggest a hard look at LSU.

Central Michigan is a MAC team, and the MAC Conference is one of the worst against non-con foes. Arizona has a lot of unknowns this year. The line has inched up to -13 in Vegas, but a better play may be the total. The number is 55 at the Greek, and both teams return lots of starters on defense (10 for CM, 7 for AZ).

As always, USC is a pass. I do not wager on my alma mater. Even if I did, this game would be a pass. USC can go conservative, or blow them out by 42.

 

[UoweDucks]

Oregon fans. Why all the love for Boise? The line could hit 7 shortly. Is it because of Oregon's lack of defense? Do they not think that Masoli is the real deal? Is it the Blue turf? I know that Oregon has a lot of holes to fill, but so does Boise. I guess everyone is impressed with Boise's great home record, built on games against a bunch of nobodies, and no one remembers that Oregon is 9-1 ATS in their first away game for the past 10 years. There are a lot of Oregon fans in here. Is anyone going to grab 7 if the line climbs that high?

Well, I bet on my alma mater and against my alma mater when I see a bad line. This I believe is a very bad line. I believe Boise is getting FAR too much credit for two things; what happened last year and their home field record (vs far inferior opponents). Last yr they beat an Oregon team by 5 pts that was for the vast majority of the game playing with one hand behind their back (true fr at qb who had a bad shoulder and couldn't throw the ball).

To answer your question if it get to a TD I will add to my bet. Something I do not do very often. Here is what I know;

Oregon is looking by all accounts VERY good this fall the team looks to be showing minimal rust. Key questions at Oline and WR are looking much better than most anticipated with experienced dapth at Oline an issue. The defense is looking better at dline and again only real issue on the entire D is depth at that spot. Depth should not be a problem in game one, (hopefully). Masoli has assumed the leadership mantle and has improved his passing game by a large margin.

If boise assumes that Oregon will be one dimensional like last year it will be a mistake. A balanced attack will be too much for a Boise squad (that starts just 2 seniors) to handle.

Last yr UO had more first downs (29-14) and gained more yards (464-424) but turned the ball over 4 times to BSU's 2. (Again, a true fr qb with a bad wing).

BSU rushed for just 38 yrds vs Oregon last year. Their inability to run the ball will be a detriment to their undersized defense which will be on the field too long and wear down much like Oregon st. and Oklahoma st did in final two games last year.

Oregon holds a very serious size advantage in the trenches. Peterson offset this last year by utilizing screens and play action, which burned oregon in the first half. Once the ducks adjusted they held bsu to just 13 pts in the second half outscoring them 26-13.

 

[Conan]

Someone speak up when they see a moneyline on the Oregon/Boise game. At the rate things are going, the odds could be irresistible.