Pac 10 Week 4

[UoweDucks]

YTD 10-9, (53%) +1 unit
LW 4-3, +1.5 units

Last weekend was a tough one again, I feel fortunate to have salvaged a winning weekend. UW paid again and so did the UCLA under. Was right on the money with Iowa over AZ, (I think we've all had AZ pegged squarely from the get go). I got backdoored very late in the WSU game and Utah almost slipped in the backdoor as Masoli did his best to get me a winner. OSU just ran into a better team, (I am real impressed with Cinn BTW). Now that non-conference games are coming to a close, I think it will be easier to cap going forward. (Hopefully).

On to what I see:

Georgia -12.5 vs ASU: What do I take away from ASU's firts two games. Honestly, nothing. Big wins over Idaho St and Louisiana Monroa hardly will prepare them for what awaits them at Georgia. It seems that Georgia is somewhat of a schizo team but they are showing a lot of heart. Something that Dennis Ericksons teams have failed to do while at ASU. Georgia has been susceptable in the air this year and I don't think that ASU/Sullivan can exploit them there. I am going to take the bulldogs here at home. Geo -12.5, 1 unit.


CAL -7 @ ORE: This is exaclty where the line should be. I had been saying yesterday that if Oregon was over a TD I would back them. From week to week it is very hard to tell what the ducks will be like. They have improved rather dramatically since the debacle in game one. The defense has been the biggest improvement, as has the Oline hence the running game. However, one area has seemingly regressed. QB play. Unless Masoli steps up his game both in passing and stopping the givaways the ducks will lose this game by how much is the only question. Oregon/Cal games have been extremely close these past few years and Cal/Tedford has really owned the ducks. I expect this game to be a close affair yet again which makes me lean to the pts. I doubt the line goes higher, in fact I suspect the line will tighten as the week goes on. I expect this game will be lower scoring affair than most think, will wait and see what the total is but that may be the best play.

Stanford -7 vs UW: Oh man, I cannot believe they made the huskies 7 point dogs here, I was thinking 3 or 4. And I would have POUNDED Stanford anticipating a UW letdown in their first road game of the year. Basically, at a TD I am not interested. Why force a play here? I'll monitor the line as the week progresses.

WSU @ USC -44: WSU found a pulse late in the 4th quarter last week but does it matter? Not in this game, the way I look at it the line is probably high by 10 points here but I see no reason to put my any of my bankroll on this WSU team vs an upset USC squad.

OSU +2 vs AZ: First a small rant on OSU. If you want to be a big time program you have to sell out games like that. Ridiculous to see all those empty seats IMO. The osu oline got abused, if this unit doesn't shore up you can forget about Canfeild leading this team to a nice finish, the guy needs more time to be effective. Defensively it wasn't so bad but when the beavs run into a qb like Pike who can hit the long fades they'll be in trouble again. Fortunately for OSU Scott is not that QB. I think this line is off by maybe 5 points. I see this as the best bet on the board. OSU +2, 1.5 units


That is it for now. May add a few totals if something look out of whack...

 

[nd2000]

Really like both of the Oregon schools to cover this week.

 

[jbragg10]

Love Oregon St. ... hope you have a great week!

 

[Conan]

I was thinking the very same thing about OR.St. for the same reason. Scott may be the first QB this year that the Beaver rush will be successful getting to because their weak points don't remain weak points for long. Scott may be the wrong guy playing the Beavers at the wrong time.

The Beaver defense has been improving, considering that they held Pike & Co. to less than they have manged all season, and by a lot less. This is a big improvement for the Beaver D since UNLV a week before. I figured they'd show up for the UC game, and their efforts are still worth noting, even if they did come up a little short. This is a trend that I have noticed before, and continuing improvement should be expected. It doesn't matter who they will be playing, a weak or strong opponent offensively, they will be turning up the heat further.

Also, I think the announcement that Gronkowski won't play this year must be a blow to the Cats morale. He was one of the few important seniors that provided their offense with the leadership it needs. I think Sonny Dykes has bigger problems than anyone has mentioned.

A game under total bet might work in this spot. But I'd nee to see at least mid-high 40's before I'd be tempted.

 

[SoonerBS]

I was thinking the very same thing about OR.St. for the same reason. Scott may be the first QB this year that the Beaver rush will be successful getting to because their weak points don't remain weak points for long. Scott may be the wrong guy playing the Beavers at the wrong time.

The Beaver defense has been improving, considering that they held Pike & Co. to less than they have manged all season, and by a lot less. This is a big improvement for the Beaver D since UNLV a week before. I figured they'd show up for the UC game, and their efforts are still worth noting, even if they did come up a little short. This is a trend that I have noticed before, and continuing improvement should be expected. It doesn't matter who they will be playing, a weak or strong opponent offensively, they will be turning up the heat further.

Also, I think the announcement that Gronkowski won't play this year must be a blow to the Cats morale. He was one of the few important seniors that provided their offense with the leadership it needs. I think Sonny Dykes has bigger problems than anyone has mentioned.

A game under total bet might work in this spot. But I'd nee to see at least mid-high 40's before I'd be tempted.

I was thinking the same thing on this game.

 

[UoweDucks]

Line moves:

OSU now -2! Big adjustment. Don't know what the oddsmakers were thinking with that early line. Glad to have jumped on it.
Oregon/CAL has begun to narrow as expected, now at 6

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Guess Chip is a good Samaritan after all haha:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ck-fans-Chip-Kelly-respects-?urn=ncaaf,191245

 

[WinOne]

Couple of interesting questions...How will UW handle all the pats on the back they are receiving. It's easy to get up for USC after beating Idaho the prior week when you are at home. Now you beat USC and go on the road to Stanford. Do you come off your cloud and play or get blown out????

Cal v Oregon...I think Oregon is better but maybe UTAH wasnt that good. Ducks still made a ton of mistakes in the game. And they will not be able to sell out to stop the run against Cal like they did for UTAH because Riley and company will shred their secondary. This will be Ducks first time looking at this version of Cal defense. Will they be able to spread it and run? Can Masoli complete enough passes to keep them from stacking the lines. See this game is down to 5' now from 7. Somebody likes the ducks. Must be Conan money???

OSU v Zona...When will Moevo get some snaps? I know Canfield has a better arm but seems team was more explosive with Moevao LY. Just a change of pace. While the OSU defense is active, mobile QB might give them some fits and open up the passing game a bit for Zona.

ASU v Georgia....At some point UGA will have a flatspot in the road. Not sure how they keep getting up for these games between conference tilts. They already have 2 conference wins under their belt and have LSU on deck after ASU. As you know I have the under on ASU and 6 1/2 wins so I feel pretty good. I had this as a loss. Despite them circling the game, I don't think they match up with the physical defense that they will see. Prove to me that you can stay in a ball game against someone other than Idaho st.

Couple of teams taking big steps backwards...Nevada and SDSU. AFA will smash Aztecs this week. Despite the DD's cant see SDSU competing on the road in this one. Mizzou goes to Reno to face Nevada. Many of us thought Nevada would play with ND in week on. Well they fell on their face and after an off week got hammered by Colo St (who looks to be a good money team).

Just a thought.

WinOne!!

 

[UoweDucks]

The UW game is a real puzzler to me. I had said early this summer that I would be backing UW in the first three games. This game was setting up to be a Stanford play all the way. I was licking my chops for it. Then the line comes out at 7. I think the linesmakers are slighlty overplaying it here. I would hit UW probably against any other team in the conference except Stanford at that price. Stanford was the other team that we've been talking highly of all summer long and I've seen nothing that changes my opinion on that. They are a rock solid team this year and unless that number moves much I'll be an interested observer.

You are right, Utah was not that great a team, and the ducks hit the shit out of that qb late in the game, he wasn't the same after that hit and threw two picks to prove it. That said the Oregon defense has been a real bright spot so far. The Cal game hinges on one guy and it isn't Best. If Masoli plays well and directs a mistake free balanced game the ducks will cover and likely win. I have my doubts, but it could be that I am too close to this one. If the same guy shows up that played vs Utah the game could go south in a hurry. I'll be there to witness it one way or the other. I have a thought on that line move and it has to do with the release on Monday from the Ducks Eugene beat reporter since the move coincided with the time it came out. I'll link it:

http://blogs.registerguard.com/cms/index.php/duck-football/comments/monday-practice-update1/

If that kind of QB shows up, then the 7 points was a gift.


Moevo is apparently much closer to playing and I agree with you, he would have been the better qb last saturday. It is worth watching but Riley most likely won't play him until he is absolutely 100%.


I also have the under 6.5 ASU season bet. Your theory on coming out flat has a ton of merit and is a concern to me. At this point this bet is a statement about my low opinion of Danny Sullivan. I honestly don't think he is a D1 qb. If he proves me wrong here then I'll lose not only this play but most likely my season bet.

Best of luck Winone!

 

[UoweDucks]

Adding:

UW/Stanford OVER 51.5, 1 unit
Seems like UW's offensive woes last weekend are being overplayed. Both of these defenses can be exploited.

If that OSU/AZ line moves past 3 (now -2.5) I will middle it.

The UO/Cal total seems just a tad high.

 

[Conan]

Adding:

UW/Stanford OVER 51.5, 1 unit
Seems like UW's offensive woes last weekend are being overplayed. Both of these defenses can be exploited.

If that OSU/AZ line moves past 3 (now -2.5) I will middle it.

The UO/Cal total seems just a tad high.

I also gave the Stanford/UW over some thought, but I'm a little bit CS when I depend on offenses to bring home the total play. That's just me. I am much more comfortable when I think defenses can set the tempo... but then again, that's just me.

I'm also waiting on the Or.St. line to head on upwards. I may do the same if it hits 3, but at the rate it's going, it's liable to hit 4. Just a thought.

 

[WinOne]

Interesting ASU road ATS stats
# Devils are 8-20 ATS L28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

# Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games (Erickson Era)
# Devils are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record (Erickson Era).
# Devils are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a road underdog.(Erickson Era)
# Devils are 1-4 ATS L5 non-conference games. (Erickson Era)
# Devils are 1-8 ATS L9 games as an underdog. (Erickson Era)
# Devils are 0-5 ATS L5 games following a ATS win. (Erickson Era)

Not all can be blamed on Erickson. After 3 recruiting classes, is there any thought that this trend is going to change. Won't matter, I fly into Hotlanta Friday afternoon. Just glad the UGA did not punish Devils by playing Noon eastern kickoff

WinOne!!

 

[Conan]

Most of that looks like stats from last year. They were awful last season. They are still full of holes this year but not as bad. At least their defense appears to be sound.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL ducks...

 

[UoweDucks]

Thx Pags


Winone,
That stat is like an evaluation of ASU's "heart". They just haven't shown much in the Erickson era. There just seems to be a real lack of guts from the devils. That can change but without much offensive punch I think the game could get ugly...


Conan,
I think that this game could develop into somewhat of a shootout. I have been real impressed with Locker. He has really improved his pass efficiency. You couple that with Stanford's average pass d and the dawgs will score points. Stanford has been electric on spec teams this year and it won't surprise me to see them score a spec teams td. On UW defense, Idaho was pretty much moving the ball at will on UW, they just got caught in the mud in the redzone. Stanford won't have that problem with Gerhart.



VOR,
I heard about that a while back. Kelly is a decent guy who calls them like he sees them. I would like for him to refund for me for my lost bet, maybe I should send him an invoice for that as well!

 

[Conan]

Conan,
I think that this game could develop into somewhat of a shootout. I have been real impressed with Locker. He has really improved his pass efficiency. You couple that with Stanford's average pass d and the dawgs will score points. Stanford has been electric on spec teams this year and it won't surprise me to see them score a spec teams td. On UW defense, Idaho was pretty much moving the ball at will on UW, they just got caught in the mud in the redzone. Stanford won't have that problem with Gerhart.

Ducks,
Have you heard of Chris Owusu yet? I had noticed his excellent speed W1 on his KO returns (avg. 50 yds. at this time) He's the fastest player on the team, why not expect a lot more from him? I just read that Harbaugh had asked him to give them 3 big plays last week during the SJSU game, and I quote:

"Owusu then went out and returned the opening kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown -- his second score on a kickoff return this season -- caught a 23-yard TD pass and turned a short pass into a 24-yard gain in the Cardinal's 42-17 win. "

Harbaugh should have asked him for four. My point is that this guy is a future star in the making and he will be heard from Saturday. (maybe even on Sundays down the road) Harbaugh has been finding more ways to get him the ball every week.

 

[UoweDucks]

Yeah Conan,
I've been keeping up on him. I like what he brings to the table.


In UW/Stan both the total and side have been growing. At this point I think this line is out of whack by a few points. I am going to add UW +8.5 for a half unit (-115). I've mentioned several times how surprised I was to see the line so high, and now that it has kept going higher I am am going to fade that move. This is a bet purely on the shoulders of Jake Locker, I believe he has a good chance to keep UW inside that number. I also see this as a somewhat of a hedge on my total bet. If the game does turn into a defensive battle then I'll want the points.

 

[Conan]

VOR,
I heard about that a while back. Kelly is a decent guy who calls them like he sees them. I would like for him to refund for me for my lost bet, maybe I should send him an invoice for that as well!

I saw a copy of the actual check Chip Kelly gave to the fan. He'll never cash it even if it was over $400. It's going to be a priceless piece of memorabilia one day. I don't think I've ever heard of a HC refunding anyone ever.

That should also be an indication to everyone what a class guy Chip Kelly is. I had Oregon written off for dead or barely with a pulse for the next few weeks at least. Now I'm not so sure about that. Theoretically they could still win out and make it into the Rose Bowl with no conference losses. If they upset Cal, that would be HUGE. Cal has looked better so far than any team I've watched play across the entire country... offensively and defensively both.

But the Ducks look like they will be alright. Masoli needs to relax and take a little more time making decisions. No time here to redo a complete rundown about them and at this point.

I am a little more concerned about Oregon St. because this is the SECOND year in a row that they've needed to retool most of their defense. After watching them for a few weeks, it has become apparent to me that the challenges they face this season are greater than last. I can see them getting away with reloading for one year but two years in a row at largely the same positions? I don't think there's a single school in CFB with that kind of depth and experience on their roster. However I give Mark Banker (OSU's DC) the benefit of the doubt that the Beavers' defense won't just crumble, but I don't think it will rank for at least another month or more while the freshmen and other new starters get coached up and get their game reps.

This year is a much taller order for their defense to make it than last season. That's too bad because their offense has plenty of potential, albeit there OL needs more time to gel completely -- but not very far to go. But where are the sacks (by the D?) I think (DE's) Frahm and Miller have the tools and athletic ability but they lack technique which can only happen with more coaching and experience. I doubt that Zona's O will pose much of a threat though, and might prove to be a sort of coming out opportunity for OSU's defense, considering that they can stuff the run (like everyone else tries to do with Zona) and HOPEFULLY get to Foles and rattle that freshman's head. I'm sure the crowd will chip in their share.

 

[UoweDucks]

I saw a copy of the actual check Chip Kelly gave to the fan. He'll never cash it even if it was over $400. It's going to be a priceless piece of memorabilia one day. I don't think I've ever heard of a HC refunding anyone ever.

That should also be an indication to everyone what a class guy Chip Kelly is. I had Oregon written off for dead or barely with a pulse for the next few weeks at least. Now I'm not so sure about that. Theoretically they could still win out and make it into the Rose Bowl with no conference losses. If they upset Cal, that would be HUGE. Cal has looked better so far than any team I've watched play across the entire country... offensively and defensively both.

But the Ducks look like they will be alright. Masoli needs to relax and take a little more time making decisions. No time here to redo a complete rundown about them and at this point.

I am a little more concerned about Oregon St. because this is the SECOND year in a row that they've needed to retool most of their defense. After watching them for a few weeks, it has become apparent to me that the challenges they face this season are greater than last. I can see them getting away with reloading for one year but two years in a row at largely the same positions? I don't think there's a single school in CFB with that kind of depth and experience on their roster. However I give Mark Banker (OSU's DC) the benefit of the doubt that the Beavers' defense won't just crumble, but I don't think it will rank for at least another month or more while the freshmen and other new starters get coached up and get their game reps.

This year is a much taller order for their defense to make it than last season. That's too bad because their offense has plenty of potential, albeit there OL needs more time to gel completely -- but not very far to go. But where are the sacks (by the D?) I think (DE's) Frahm and Miller have the tools and athletic ability but they lack technique which can only happen with more coaching and experience. I doubt that Zona's O will pose much of a threat though, and might prove to be a sort of coming out opportunity for OSU's defense, considering that they can stuff the run (like everyone else tries to do with Zona) and HOPEFULLY get to Foles and rattle that freshman's head. I'm sure the crowd will chip in their share.

Listening to the radio up here in Seattle would have you thinking that Chip Kelly is the antichrist. But then again they hated Belloti too.


School starts for OSU on Monday so the students should help the crowd with that rattling. I too think the OSU D has issues that may not be overcome this yr, particularly in the secondary. Fortunately for them this is the one year in the conference when having a weak secondary shouldn't be as big a concern.

 

[UoweDucks]

It is too good to pass up. Nothing better than hitting middles and I am all about risk/reward.

Adding: AZ +3 @ OSU .5 unit

Recap:
OSU +2, 1.5 units
AZ +3, .5 unit
Geo -12.5, 1 unit
Stanford/ UW OVER 51.5, 1 unit
UW +8.5, .5 unit