PAC 10 Week 4

[UoweDucks]

YTD 10-4, 71% (+7 units)
LW 5-2, +3 units

ASU +7 vs Georgia: Big game of the day. After the ASU and the pac10 embarrassed themselves last week how could anyone put money on them vs a very highly rated Georgia team? I'll take the points here on the bet that Erickson gets what went wrong last week. By trying to force feed the run game they went away from what has been working, the passing game. My hunch here is that Erickson gameplans this offense to his strengths. A veteran qb and excellent wr's. If he does that the Devils have enough offense to cover. 1 unit

Boise St +10.5 @ Oregon: The ducks laid an egg last week. Oregon was much more talented than purdue but by giving up 4 turnovers, they allowed the Boilermakers to come within a hair of beating them. They showed more guts than they have in years by engineering that comeback but unfortunately they lost Roper in the second overtime to a knee injury. That leaves Oregon depending on 2 newcomers to run this offense and makes the ducks somewhat easier to defend as now they are more one dimensional than they have been this year. This bets hinges on Oregon's ability to run the ball in spite of a stacked box. I think that they can do this given the advantages that they will have on the line and the emergence of Lagarrete Blount. I bet Kelly is kicking himself for not utilizing this road grader more last week. I think Oregon wins this game but I consider the spread to be very close. No play at this price.

more later

 

[Conan]

I've also been playing with the idea of betting ASU with a TD, the theory being that ASU will respond off the mat with a strong game. I've been reading up on Carpenter and he's pissed off. An overly conservative game plan for an ace passer like him, only 6 throws in the 2H vs. UNLV short circuited his abilities. Erickson has his regrets. UNLV's 2-deep zone dared the Devils to run and the Devils responded but it didn't work. My guess is that ASU returns to what it does well which is pass primarily in a ball control passing attack. A good game from their defense and anything's possible. DE usually fields very aggressive defenses so we'll see how it goes. I think the coaches blew it with poor 2H adjustments LW.

UoD, I think there may be some value in the totals this week.

 

[Brotherwo]

I like ASU to rebound and be very competitive

Good luck!

 

[CrapGame]

I like your thinking behind the Boise St play.
I watched the Ducks last week and they were bad. Many dropped passes.

 

[pezgordo]

I've also been playing with the idea of betting ASU with a TD, the theory being that ASU will respond off the mat with a strong game. I've been reading up on Carpenter and he's pissed off. An overly conservative game plan for an ace passer like him, only 6 throws in the 2H vs. UNLV short circuited his abilities. Erickson has his regrets. UNLV's 2-deep zone dared the Devils to run and the Devils responded but it didn't work. My guess is that ASU returns to what it does well which is pass primarily in a ball control passing attack. A good game from their defense and anything's possible. DE usually fields very aggressive defenses so we'll see how it goes. I think the coaches blew it with poor 2H adjustments LW.

UoD, I think there may be some value in the totals this week.

Conan, I definitely agree that the coaches blew it in the 2nd half. What I didn't understand was w/ 6 minutes left in the game and UNLV out of timeouts, Devils run the ball three straight times for a 1st down. Clock is now down to 4 minutes and one more 1st down basically ends the game. I have heard Erickson preach over and over how you have to be able to run the football in the 4th quarter. So why on earth is the next 1st down play a pass????? Even 3 straight runs into the line and a punt would have left UNLV w/ less then 2 minutes and an 80-90 yard field.

 

[EMM]

That pretty much sums up ASU football. I use to work at SDS and I can't tell you how many times they just do something stupid. I alway said they needed to hire a sports psychologist to get them over the hump.

As much as I'd love to see them pull this off against GA, I believe it will be the same old song. They won't protect Carpenter and the run will be non existent.

 

[Conan]

That leaves Oregon depending on 2 newcomers to run this offense and makes the ducks somewhat easier to defend as now they are more one dimensional than they have been this year. This bets hinges on Oregon's ability to run the ball in spite of a stacked box. I think that they can do this given the advantages that they will have on the line and the emergence of Lagarrete Blount. I bet Kelly is kicking himself for not utilizing this road grader more last week. I think Oregon wins this game but I consider the spread to be very close. No play at this price.

more later

So Masoli will get the start... maybe. He's the one with the arm. I think it would cross up a lot of defenses if he took off with the ball once in a while and also I'd like to see Harper throw it a little more often for the same reasons.

Yes Blount is a beast. I was happy to see his enthusiasm after his first TD in his budding career.

Why can't the Ducks get a break? That would be something new.

 

[whormoan]

So Masoli will get the start... maybe. He's the one with the arm. I think it would cross up a lot of defenses if he took off with the ball once in a while and also I'd like to see Harper throw it a little more often for the same reasons.

Yes Blount is a beast. I was happy to see his enthusiasm after his first TD in his budding career.

Why can't the Ducks get a break? That would be something new.

It's called karma. When you rush the field after winning as a double digit fav and when you fold your tents and show no mental fortitude the second a player gets hurt, you don't deserve a break. Oregon needs to make some breaks for themselves.

 

[Conan]

It's called karma. When you rush the field after winning as a double digit fav and when you fold your tents and show no mental fortitude the second a player gets hurt, you don't deserve a break. Oregon needs to make some breaks for themselves.

I wouldn't sully up UoD's thread any further with an answer to that unreasoning blather.

 

[UoweDucks]

UoD, I think there may be some value in the totals this week.

I have been swamped this week. I agree on this Conan...

Back to the Oregon game. With Oregon bringing in some fresh qb's I think that they are going to really focus on the running game. They have the tools to win running but it will slow down the scoring. On the other side, Oregon's defense should be able to slow down BSU and I always question how effective freshman qb's can be coming into an environment like Autzen stadium. I am adding UNDER 55, 1 unit

Arizona -2.5 @ UCLA: I like Arizona in this game. BYU had their way passing vs UCLA and I think Arizona can be effective as well. Though I do expect an improved effort from UCLA's defense at home. On the other side I don't think that UCLA has the OL and ground game needed to control the clock and keep AZ offense off the field. Adding AZ -2.5 1/2 unit and UNDER 55 1/2 unit

San Jose St +9 @ Stanford: I think that this line is off. I'll take the points here in a game that seemingly always means more to the Wac team. Stanford offensively has just not shown the capacity that I would need to see in order to justify laying this many points vs a hungry dog. Adding SJ ST +9 1 unit

Recap
ASU +7, 1 unit
UO/BSU Under 55, 1 unit
AZ -2.5, 1/2 unit
AZ/UCLA under 55, 1/2 unit
Sj ST +9, 1 unit

 

[Cappin'Guru]

YTD 10-4, 71% (+7 units)
LW 5-2, +3 units

ASU +7 vs Georgia: Big game of the day. After the ASU and the pac10 embarrassed themselves last week how could anyone put money on them vs a very highly rated Georgia team? I'll take the points here on the bet that Erickson gets what went wrong last week. By trying to force feed the run game they went away from what has been working, the passing game. My hunch here is that Erickson gameplans this offense to his strengths. A veteran qb and excellent wr's. If he does that the Devils have enough offense to cover. 1 unit

Boise St +10.5 @ Oregon: The ducks laid an egg last week. Oregon was much more talented than purdue but by giving up 4 turnovers, they allowed the Boilermakers to come within a hair of beating them. They showed more guts than they have in years by engineering that comeback but unfortunately they lost Roper in the second overtime to a knee injury. That leaves Oregon depending on 2 newcomers to run this offense and makes the ducks somewhat easier to defend as now they are more one dimensional than they have been this year. This bets hinges on Oregon's ability to run the ball in spite of a stacked box. I think that they can do this given the advantages that they will have on the line and the emergence of Lagarrete Blount. I bet Kelly is kicking himself for not utilizing this road grader more last week. I think Oregon wins this game but I consider the spread to be very close. No play at this price.

more later

UoD,

Arizona State was embarrassed by UNLV last weekend and did not show much in this outting. Are leaning on that they did not show much and have something in that offensive playbook or what? To be successful against many teams you must establish a running attack. If you do not establish a running attack then its hell and high water for a QB back there when he is having pressure in his face after a three step drop. I understand that Erickson is a very good coach and had the Sun Devils on the right track until the upset last weekend. But, don't you think UGA will show them much of the same defenses and be able to execute them better? If ASU cannot get somewhat of a running game going then the Bulldogs have seen many QBs like Carpenter in the past and well... have ate them right up.

I just don't like the spot here for the Pac-10 vs. SEC matchup. There is way to much riding on ASU to pull through and show the world that the Pac-10 is not an embarrasment and that USC is not the only team to compete. I think its a no play or on UGA for me. (I see you have only laid one unit on it, but that was my two cents.)

BOL on the Boise State game. I for one have no seen Boise State play and really wish I had! Who is the starting QB for the Ducks this weekend and is the rest of the backfield healthy for the Ducks?

 

[MajorGCG]

I cant bet on ASU because of their OL and I think UGAs secondary is pretty dang good. Can ASU stop Moreno who is just ridiculous? Add in a little SEC bias and I'm on UGA. I got them at -6.5. I don't think it will be a blow out, but I don't think I'll worry about a backdoor cover either. UGA has heard about this game for sometime and will be ready.

Im on BSU. I just havent been impressed with OU all year even though I have played them 3 weeks in a row.

 

[clutch]

Do you still like Oregon U 54 since U 55 has been gone now since yesterday afternoon?

 

[UoweDucks]

Do you still like Oregon U 54 since U 55 has been gone now since yesterday afternoon?

I do, sorry that I have been to busy to write this week.

Capn,
Masoli will start at QB, the backfield is healthy but I think we'll see much more Blount in this game. You might be right on Georgia but I'll still stick with the points. I really do think it will be a close game

 

[hm2.0]

looks like a good card...just not sure about the ASU game. I think I wanna watch this one and see where UGA is at given their sluggish start to the season.

gl.

 

[Conan]

San Jose St +9 @ Stanford: I think that this line is off. I'll take the points here in a game that seemingly always means more to the Wac team. Stanford offensively has just not shown the capacity that I would need to see in order to justify laying this many points vs a hungry dog. Adding SJ ST +9 1 unit

This is one pick that I really like. I would almost go as far as saying that the wrong team is favored... not alltogether convinced of that but I'm tempted to believe it. A SU win for SJ wouldn't surprise me. They have everything that Stanford wants. A very good QB, a very good DL and their OL is at least as good as the Cardinal. Now they have 2 100 yard rushers in their backfield and a secondary that is much better than the trees. I can't think of a single area where Stanford is better than the Spartans. This is also a revenge game. Last year SJ was decimated and got shut out. That's far from the case this year. Stanford will be hard pressed to put points up on the board. That SJ defense is pretty good.

I also like the under in the UCLA game the best and will probably be looking at playing UCLA under for a while.

Boise deserves some credit for having a testy defense in this play. It will be interesting to see how Oregon's power game matches up with Boise's stinginess. Chris Peterson rarely lets one get away from him but the Autzen factor won't be any easier for the Broncos than it is for anyone else. This is the first time Boise and Oregon have ever played. That's a brain twister.

 

[g_hilde]

UoD,

Arizona State was embarrassed by UNLV last weekend and did not show much in this outting. Are leaning on that they did not show much and have something in that offensive playbook or what? To be successful against many teams you must establish a running attack. If you do not establish a running attack then its hell and high water for a QB back there when he is having pressure in his face after a three step drop. I understand that Erickson is a very good coach and had the Sun Devils on the right track until the upset last weekend. But, don't you think UGA will show them much of the same defenses and be able to execute them better? If ASU cannot get somewhat of a running game going then the Bulldogs have seen many QBs like Carpenter in the past and well... have ate them right up.

I just don't like the spot here for the Pac-10 vs. SEC matchup. There is way to much riding on ASU to pull through and show the world that the Pac-10 is not an embarrasment and that USC is not the only team to compete. I think its a no play or on UGA for me. (I see you have only laid one unit on it, but that was my two cents.)

The few times ASU opened up on UNLV, they were able to easily get by the defense. DE and the coaching staff went into the game with the intent to stick with the run throughout. The idea was either to work on the run or to not show much before UGA. The team still should have won, but around the time when UNLV gained momentum, the play-calling probably went ultra-conservative and the team sort of shut-down. Still, the running game was decent, it was just lacking big plays.

I guarantee DE is hoping UGA copies UNLV. Rudy can already carve up their secondary, but if they sit back and let him then it could get ugly real quick.

 

[GoSooners]

Good luck Ducks...I really like the SJST play:toast:

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on ASU and SJSU...GL ducks...

 

[UoweDucks]

I cant bet on ASU because of their OL and I think UGAs secondary is pretty dang good. Can ASU stop Moreno who is just ridiculous? Add in a little SEC bias and I'm on UGA. I got them at -6.5. I don't think it will be a blow out, but I don't think I'll worry about a backdoor cover either. UGA has heard about this game for sometime and will be ready.

Im on BSU. I just havent been impressed with OU all year even though I have played them 3 weeks in a row.

Major,

I can see someone grabbing BSU here and if not for one thing I might consider the points as well but here is the issue:

The Boise St QB has never started a CFB game on the road. His Oline, 4 new starters...

ps. the ducks go by UO not OU.
Best of luck this week!