Pac 10 week 2

[UoweDucks]

5-2 YTD (71%), +2 units

Not a lot that I like this week. I feel like some of the teams aren't as good or as bad as they showed in week one and capping these games based on that first look can be dangerous. I will be more interested in the totals this week.

Stanford @ WF -2.5: Here I think that it would be too easy to grab Stanford. But I am concerned about this game. The early start time has posed problems for teams traveling east. I am concerned about Luck's ability to handle a game like this in the event that WF bottles up the cardinal running game. Something I am sure they will want to do. I am calling this a no-bet for now. We'll see what the total is.

UCLA +8 vs Tennessee: I would think that UT should be able to handle this UCLA squad but 8 points seems like a bit much. I lean to the points but will be more interested in a total again, as I think it may come out a bit inflated given the offensive output that both teams had last week.

Oregon -12 vs Purdue: Here is the first instance in which I don't think a team will be as bad as they looked in week one. That said, I am really having a hard time laying this many points given how terrible the ducks looked offensively. I would think Oregon wins this game and while they could cover easily in some sort of cathartic ass kicking, I hesitate to call for it. No bet.

UW -20.5 vs Idaho: This is an instance where I don't think UW is as good as they looked in week one. However, I like the huskies this week. Just like we predicted here LSU showed up expecting a pillow fight and got a backyard brawl. It was the easiest bet on the board last week and am glad to have taken advantage of it. I continue with the theme that UW is a "play on" team and will most likely do so again next week vs USC. UW -20.5, 1 unit

WSU +2 vs Hawaii: I am going with the "home" team here. WSU will be playing this game in Seattle. While the cougs still got steamrolled last week I saw a team that was playing better. Lopina seemed to manage the game well and I think the cougs would have had a better chance at covering had they stuck with him. Hawaii had a penchant for giving the ball away last week and the cougs for once did not. WSU small. WSU +2, .5 unit

USC -6.5 @ Ohio St. Looks to me like a set up. Ohio St struglged mightily with Navy in what was clearly a look ahead game while USC just took care of business vs a terribly overmatched team. I still maintain that while he won't be relied upon, Barkely will make some key mistakes in this spot and that concerns me laying a TD on the road in a hostile environment. I don't think that USC will be able to rely so much on their running game. I am real tempted to take the home dog. Not yet though. Would like to see where this line settles.

OSU vs UNLV +7: I like OSU but I don't think it is as easy as it appears. Let's not forget how this team performs in early season OOC road games, in a word pathetic. (0-8 since 2003). UNLV spread could give the raw secondary fits. I think the game is closer than the TD but just have the guts to bet it..... yet. What is holding me back is one guy; Jacquizz.

 

[Delta00]

Like those two plays, Sark is going to try to instill confidence in his team and will win by as much as possible against Idaho. WSU had some life against Stanford last week and actually moved the ball somewhat with Lopina, hopefully Wulff ends the QB circus. Hawaii on the road after barely beating Southeast Arkansas Tech State Jr. at home

 

[GoSooners]

5-2 YTD (71%), +2 units

Not a lot that I like this week. I feel like some of the teams aren't as good or as bad as they showed in week one and capping these games based on that first look can be dangerous. I will be more interested in the totals this week.




USC -6.5 @ Ohio St. Looks to me like a set up. Ohio St struglged mightily with Navy in what was clearly a look ahead game while USC just took care of business vs a terribly overmatched team. I still maintain that while he won't be relied upon, Barkely will make some key mistakes in this spot and that concerns me laying a TD on the road in a hostPlus ile environment. I don't think that USC will be able to rely so much on their running game. I am real tempted to take the home dog. Not yet though. Would like to see where this line settles.

Something tells me both of these teams struggle offensivley in this game. Everything says USC but....
I heard Stanford is flying up to Wake on Wednesday night just to get used to the time change. This is a tough game to figure. But my feeling is that Stanford doesn't have as much overall team speed as Baylor did. Briles has been recruiting nothing but speed the last couple of years. Stanford strikes me as more of a grind it out team without all of the misdirection that Baylor threw at them. Plus Wake doesn't have to deal with Griffin this week. I just don't know how good a redshirt freshman is going to play on the road. Same with USC. You never can be really sure until they've been thrown into the fire. BOL Ducks

 

[gotbeaver]

5-2 YTD (71%), +2 units

Not a lot that I like this week. I feel like some of the teams aren't as good or as bad as they showed in week one and capping these games based on that first look can be dangerous. I will be more interested in the totals this week.

Stanford @ WF -2.5: Here I think that it would be too easy to grab Stanford. But I am concerned about this game. The early start time has posed problems for teams traveling east. I am concerned about Luck's ability to handle a game like this in the event that WF bottles up the cardinal running game. Something I am sure they will want to do. I am calling this a no-bet for now. We'll see what the total is.

UCLA +8 vs Tennessee: I would think that UT should be able to handle this UCLA squad but 8 points seems like a bit much. I lean to the points but will be more interested in a total again, as I think it may come out a bit inflated given the offensive output that both teams had last week.

Oregon -12 vs Purdue: Here is the first instance in which I don't think a team will be as bad as they looked in week one. That said, I am really having a hard time laying this many points given how terrible the ducks looked offensively. I would think Oregon wins this game and while they could cover easily in some sort of cathartic ass kicking, I hesitate to call for it. No bet.

UW -20.5 vs Idaho: This is an instance where I don't think UW is as good as they looked in week one. However, I like the huskies this week. Just like we predicted here LSU showed up expecting a pillow fight and got a backyard brawl. It was the easiest bet on the board last week and am glad to have taken advantage of it. I continue with the theme that UW is a "play on" team and will most likely do so again next week vs USC. UW -20.5, 1 unit

WSU +2 vs Hawaii: I am going with the "home" team here. WSU will be playing this game in Seattle. While the cougs still got steamrolled last week I saw a team that was playing better. Lopina seemed to manage the game well and I think the cougs would have had a better chance at covering had they stuck with him. Hawaii had a penchant for giving the ball away last week and the cougs for once did not. WSU small. WSU +2, .5 unit

USC -6.5 @ Ohio St. Looks to me like a set up. Ohio St struglged mightily with Navy in what was clearly a look ahead game while USC just took care of business vs a terribly overmatched team. I still maintain that while he won't be relied upon, Barkely will make some key mistakes in this spot and that concerns me laying a TD on the road in a hostile environment. I don't think that USC will be able to rely so much on their running game. I am real tempted to take the home dog. Not yet though. Would like to see where this line settles.

OSU vs UNLV +7: I like OSU but I don't think it is as easy as it appears. Let's not forget how this team performs in early season OOC road games, in a word pathetic. (0-8 since 2003). UNLV spread could give the raw secondary fits. I think the game is closer than the TD but just have the guts to bet it..... yet. What is holding me back is one guy; Jacquizz.

Ducks,

I agree with everything you are saying. 1 game that is stood out to me was Oregon -points. I thought this was a good game to lay money on Oregon. I am not convinced they are a good offensive team, and more importantly, I am not convinced they can stop anyone. BSU stopped themselves for the most part.

I don't know why Quizz would hold you back. Like Mike Riley said, when you put the ball in Quizz's or James hand, they stand a chance to take it all the way every time. OS was pretty vanilla against Portland State on offense against PS. The 0-8 road record since 03 I think you throw out the window. Keep in mind, most of those games were back east or down south against ranked opponents. UNLV is not even close in talent as those teams OS place on the road since 03. I think OS wins, but doesn't cover.

I am loving TOSU. Freshman QB on the road. Come on. That is a lot to ask of a QB.

 

[SoonerBS]

Ducks, I'm actually liking WSU this week as well. I think for once that WSU is actually playing a team worse than they are. Hawaii's defense is weak this year and WSU's offense should be improved over last season. WSU actually played against decent competition last week where Hawaii did not. Once again we have Hawaii traveling to the homeland where they usually do not do as well (2-4 SU last year). I think I'll likely put a little on the spread and the ML in this game.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Agree with all your leans. Good write-ups.

 

[fadethepublic1]

5-2 YTD (71%), +2 units


WSU +2 vs Hawaii: I am going with the "home" team here. WSU will be playing this game in Seattle. While the cougs still got steamrolled last week I saw a team that was playing better. Lopina seemed to manage the game well and I think the cougs would have had a better chance at covering had they stuck with him. Hawaii had a penchant for giving the ball away last week and the cougs for once did not. WSU small. WSU +2, .5 unit

ALOHA FROM HAWAII
UH looked like shit last week. OL could not give Alexander 3 seconds in the pocket against a 1-AA team, AT HOME. UH as a road chalk never does well. I cannot see WASU being that much shittier or even as bad as C. Arkansas. I was thinking trap play when I saw the line. WTF. I wanna bet everything but the kitchen sink on WASU. Season ticket holder for UH and can't see them doing well on the road.

 

[Conan]

OSU vs UNLV +7: I like OSU but I don't think it is as easy as it appears. Let's not forget how this team performs in early season OOC road games, in a word pathetic. (0-8 since 2003). UNLV spread could give the raw secondary fits. I think the game is closer than the TD but just have the guts to bet it..... yet. What is holding me back is one guy; Jacquizz.

Here is OSU's list of early season road game losses of recent note:

Boise St. (2)
Penn St.
Cincinnatti
Fresno St. (2-points)
LSU (1-point)
Louisville
(I must have missed one if it is 8 straight)

Then there is UNLV coming up.
I think the point is self-evident.

I am tempted to take a couple more sides the same way you have leaned yourself. But before I fill in my card with anymore sides, I want to see some totals. The Hawaii/WSU game begs for an under play just to name one that comes to mind. Slam dunk if it's anywhere in the high 40's or more. The Udub side is also a tempting wager.

I beg to differ with you about Barkley. I honestly believe that he is a special kid the likes of which I don't think you or I have ever seen before. Also consider the OL in front of him. The trench warfare is USC's to own and theirs alone to blow. From what I can tell, that is a monumental mismatch in a game of such magnitude. The best hope I give OSU is that Pryor might put the Jake Locker to USC. But then again, USC has sleep walked through UW but they won't do that here.

I agree with you about the Ducks. I need to see how Chip Kelly has reorganized the offense around LaMichael James. Heh. Just look at all these true freshmen getting their chance, starting last year with Quizz and so on. It seems that RS freshmen and true freshmen are going to see a lot of playing time this season. I don't think it would be a good idea to write any of them off, having witnessed the kind of impact possible with Quizz last year and quite possibly if not probably Barkley this year. Good news for Oregon and the rest of the Pac-10 if both Barkley and LaMichael turn out to be the successes I think they both will be.

 

[Kiln]

Let me begin by saying that I loathe The Cardinal. I detest, despise, and disdain them/it. However, I think they win rather handily this weekend, even given the long road trip. Harbaugh is no fool and I think he knows how to get his team to travel. The cross country trip is quite the rarity for Stanford but they're not Tedford's Bears who collapse like a house of cards in a hurricane on the road or on the ropes. And don't forget, Stanford is on the quarters system and classes don't start until Sept 21 so they can fly out tomorrow (Wednesday if they want).

I also think USC is the clear choice. Obviously Ohio State was looking ahead but as the announcers kept repeating over and over again and saying the same thing time after time, the defense is going to have to reprepare after facing the triple option of Navy. USC accidentally scored points last week--they couldn't not score if they wanted to. That depth is amazing and I cannot envision a scenario where OSU wins the game. Perhaps that's what he books want me to think and maybe it's a sucker bet but if so I'll be a lollipop everytime in this situation.

Good luck! I think your analysis is awesome and I don't bet the PAC-10 without checking here first.

 

[UoweDucks]

Well, after considering the game further I am going to add a m/l bet on the cougs. This is an absolute must win game for Wulff and staff. I think this line will keep moving throughout the week so I don't want to think about this one any longer.

Adding
WSU M/L (+110) 1 unit

 

[Conan]

Well, after considering the game further I am going to add a m/l bet on the cougs. This is an absolute must win game for Wulff and staff. I think this line will keep moving throughout the week so I don't want to think about this one any longer.

Adding
WSU M/L (+110) 1 unit

Silly me for sticking with a 1/2 unit here. I may join you since I bet it light and would probably have done myself better to give in and go ML as you have. UH has not been a very good road team and this year they are not a very good team period. Entirely beatable by the Coogs. I think you are right that Wulff knows this is a big game for them, a real chance to win. I guess I've still got some thinking to do here.

 

[Right-Side]

Quick question for a pac-10 vet! Who is calling the offensive plays for oregon this year, I looked around a little and can't find if Kelly is making the calls or not???

 

[UoweDucks]

Kelly is calling the plays.

I would like to thank fadethepublic and soonerbs, you guys shook me awake on wsu, I think it is the right call and will be my biggest play on the weekend.

As for USC and Stanford I just don't have the confidence with raw QB's in big road games, I say pass. Let em prove it to me and I'll make the money back that I didn't win down the road.

Gotbeav good to see you posting again, don't be a stranger. Quizz was holding me back on a bet on UNLV.

 

[uagreatdanes]

Im not going to touch the UNLV game, but lets not forget after the Arizona State Sun Devils opened opened up 2-0 last season putting a hurt on Stanford (not sure who the other was) the UNLV team came in to Sun Devil stadium and took em down, so they obviously known how to rise to the occasion, although im not sure if they still have that running back from last year.

 

[UoweDucks]

ADDING:
UO/PUR UNDER 59.5 1 unit
I expect Oregon is still going to be working the kinks out offensively and that Purdue will be more focused on establishing the run, at least early on.

 

[fugazi]

Ducks I agree with you on the UCLA total, Im very interested to see this number and hope it's really high. It should be considering both teams scored a good amount last game.
I think the game will be a d efensive struggle unless UCLA makes mistakes early and gets snowballed.

 

[UoweDucks]

Ducks I agree with you on the UCLA total, Im very interested to see this number and hope it's really high. It should be considering both teams scored a good amount last game.
I think the game will be a d efensive struggle unless UCLA makes mistakes early and gets snowballed.

I show 46.5 and I was hoping for it to be a bit higher but I may bite...

 

[Conan]

ADDING:
UO/PUR UNDER 59.5 1 unit
I expect Oregon is still going to be working the kinks out offensively and that Purdue will be more focused on establishing the run, at least early on.

Yeah. I didn't notice how big that total was. Hmmmmm.
Purdue I believe is also bringing in a new QB here. Curtis Painter is gone.

 

[Conan]

Ducks I agree with you on the UCLA total, Im very interested to see this number and hope it's really high. It should be considering both teams scored a good amount last game.
I think the game will be a d efensive struggle unless UCLA makes mistakes early and gets snowballed.

Fugazi, I'm not exactly sure what to make of last week's scores. Both teams played patsies last week but both teams feature strong defenses. It seems reasonable to think that neither will put out as before.

 

[russ1945]

Ducks: my sources say that Wash St played much better with Lupina under center than when Lobbestael was at QB. Are they still going to rotate or have they made a decision at QB yet.