PAC 10 Week 13

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YTD 29-26 +4.5 units
LW 1-2, -2 units

Last week was another disappointment and if not for Stanford's late TD that shouldn't have been it would have been a rout. I consider that payback for what Harbaugh did to my San Jose St bet earlier this year...

Most surprising to me was a game in which I attended. The ducks came out as I thought they would defensively shutting down AZ in the first half. What I didn't anticipate was how terrific they would look offensively coming out. It was really eye opening and maybe telling about the CW next week. I haven't seen that offense since last year with Dixon. Fast strike scores, they were rolling like they haven't all year and this was against what I consider a pretty good D. They went to sleep at half and it almost cost them... As for ASU/WSU. Ugh.

This week I have made up my mind that only one game interests me here.

WSU +7 vs UW: I will not be betting this game but if I had to pick a side it would be the points. The "crapple cup" this year features two of the worst teams in the conference if not the country. In a rivalry game like this I would lean to the home team, the points and the team that has more motivation. WSU has all three.

Stanford +8.5 @ CAL: I think that Cal's oline problems were really exposed last week vs. OSU and Stanford has the kind of defensive front seven that can continue that exploitation. After watching the Cardinal many times this year I have been struck by how mentally tough this team is. I think that Stanford D keeps this one very close. 1.5 Units

AZ -2.5 vs OSU: I lean to AZ here but it is too close a call I think to bet on. It is damn hard to fade the beavs, they don't make mistakes, run the ball and play very good defense. I think that they have a real problem though as Moevo is clearly still banged up and he threw several passes last week that could have been picked. AZ is a better team at home. Can't decide on who to favor, flip a coin? For me that means no bet.
 

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SI cheerleader of the week:
Amanda Pflugrad daughter of Oregon's WR coach


YP_Amanda-Oregon-032_5794.jpg
 

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That's a realistic view of the Beavers UoD.

I think they are inches away from establishing their program as one of the best in the Pac-10, a la Cal and Oregon over recent years... and they tend to beat USC. Maybe it's time to accept their deserved rank? Riley deserves coach of the year considering where they started from at the start of this season.

I'm on them because they are clearly the better team and they've been faded and doubted for years, including this one yet they keep on "overachieving." How much longer can that view prevail?

by the way... 100% with you on Stanford. With Harbaugh around, a backdoor is "likely" if you see the point.

BOL -- time to cash
 

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That's a realistic view of the Beavers UoD.

I think they are inches away from establishing their program as one of the best in the Pac-10, a la Cal and Oregon over recent years... and they tend to beat USC. Maybe it's time to accept their deserved rank? Riley deserves coach of the year considering where they started from at the start of this season.

I'm on them because they are clearly the better team and they've been faded and doubted for years, including this one yet they keep on "overachieving." How much longer can that view prevail?

by the way... 100% with you on Stanford. With Harbaugh around, a backdoor is "likely" if you see the point.

BOL -- time to cash

I agree on a lot of your praise for OSU. Credit most definitely goes to Riley and staff, they continue to get more from less. He has even cleaned up the gangster element that they had a few years back.

Why do they get doubted and faded? That is easy. This team has for years laid eggs in their nationally televised non-conf games. (Louisville, Pen St. Cincy, Utah etc)
Simple as that.

Riley gets coach of yr if they go Rose bowl but I'll tell you what, I am getting a bit of that overconfident vibe from my beaver buddies and that has been a great fade for me over the years.

I would love if Oregon is a 7 pt dog going into the CW but that probably won't happen. Thinking 4.5 if beavs lose to AZ or 6 if they beat AZ
 

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I agree on a lot of your praise for OSU. Credit most definitely goes to Riley and staff, they continue to get more from less. He has even cleaned up the gangster element that they had a few years back.

Why do they get doubted and faded? That is easy. This team has for years laid eggs in their nationally televised non-conf games. (Louisville, Pen St. Cincy, Utah etc)
Simple as that.

Riley gets coach of yr if they go Rose bowl but I'll tell you what, I am getting a bit of that overconfident vibe from my beaver buddies and that has been a great fade for me over the years.

I would love if Oregon is a 7 pt dog going into the CW but that probably won't happen. Thinking 4.5 if beavs lose to AZ or 6 if they beat AZ

If I may add my 2 cents again this week: OSU is in a bad spot for this game. It's the same, or nearly the same, position that Cal was in last year. As you say, they seem overconfident. Pride goeth before a fall, as they say. AZ -2' for sure.
 

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