Pac 10 Week 11

UoweDucks · Nov 6, 2008

YTD 25-21 (54.3%) +6.5 units
LW 3-3, -1/2 unit

Sorry for delays in posting, I have been away. Tough week last week. I honestly felt going into the 4th qtr that at the very least I was going to get a push in the ducks game vs cal. However, in the end Oregon allowing CAL to start two drives inside their 10 yard line via turnovers was their undoing. The under cashed however. Speaking of under, I was very surprised to see Stanford running it up on WSU. I honestly felt that of the two unders I had in the Bay area that Stanford was the better bet... Oh well. As for OSU/ASU I was surprised that the Devils managed to show up offensively. And once again the weekly UW and WSU fade cashes, for those that haven't been paying attention this has been an ATM this year...

This week:
Stanford +14 @ Oregon: Two teams that look very similiar in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Both can run the ball very well and both can defend the run very well. Neither has much of a passing game to speak of and the weather looks like it is going to piss rain. Oregon has better talent but I wonder how well it will be put to use given the conditions. I'll take Stanford +14, 1/2 unit, and the Under 55 1/2 unit

ASU -14 @ UW: Can't stop now. ASU showing a pulse last weekend will be all I needed to see to be convinced that they should do what everyone else is doing to UW. 1.5 units

UCLA +8 vs OSU: I can understand the line but UCLA as a over a TD home dog coming off a bye week is too good to pass up. Particularily with Canfield looking like the potential starter for OSU. I am going to go small however given UCLA's Jekyl and Hyde offense. 1/2 Unit

AZ -41 @ WSU: I don't have to overthink things here. 2 units

CAL +21 @ USC: Will wait on this one for later.

Conan · Nov 6, 2008

UoweDucks said:
YTD 25-21 (54.3%) +6.5 units
LW 3-3, -1/2 unit

Sorry for delays in posting, I have been away. Tough week last week. I honestly felt going into the 4th qtr that at the very least I was going to get a push in the ducks game vs cal. However, in the end Oregon allowing CAL to start two drives inside their 10 yard line via turnovers was their undoing. The under cashed however. Speaking of under, I was very surprised to see Stanford running it up on WSU. I honestly felt that of the two unders I had in the Bay area that Stanford was the better bet... Oh well. As for OSU/ASU I was surprised that the Devils managed to show up offensively. And once again the weekly UW and WSU fade cashes, for those that haven't been paying attention this has been an ATM this year...

This week:
Stanford +14 @ Oregon: Two teams that look very similiar in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Both can run the ball very well and both can defend the run very well. Neither has much of a passing game to speak of and the weather looks like it is going to piss rain. Oregon has better talent but I wonder how well it will be put to use given the conditions. I'll take Stanford +14, 1/2 unit, and the Under 55 1/2 unit

ASU -14 @ UW: Can't stop now. ASU showing a pulse last weekend will be all I needed to see to be convinced that they should do what everyone else is doing to UW. 1.5 units

UCLA +8 vs OSU: I can understand the line but UCLA as a over a TD home dog coming off a bye week is too good to pass up. Particularily with Canfield looking like the potential starter for OSU. I am going to go small however given UCLA's Jekyl and Hyde offense. 1/2 Unit

AZ -41 @ WSU: I don't have to overthink things here. 2 units

CAL +21 @ USC: Will wait on this one for later.

UCLA's down a couple more OL's and a DL this week in case you weren't aware. I don't like Canfield but I think the loss of 3 linemen sort of messes up UCLA's bye week. I can see though that with just 1/2 unit on it, it's not the strongest thing you like. I'm big in the Zonas this week too.

Conan · Nov 6, 2008

Also, in the Stanford/OU game, it sounds crazy but neither team can throw the ball too well. Unless you look at the 2ndaries on both teams.... Oregon stands a chance to emerge with the stronger passing game. Kind of a weak stance, but Stanford's pass D plain sucks and the Ducks pass D at home might do better. Probably not enough to score significantly on Stanford unless Roper/Masoli throwing turns out to work OK Saturday. Stanford needs a win to go bowling. They WILL show up. The under looks like money.

Good luck UoD.

AlwaysKeen · Nov 6, 2008

GL ducks...

UoweDucks · Nov 8, 2008

Thx guys.

I am aware of UCLA's many injuries and am not swayed off the bet...

As for CAL / USC I think that CAL is going to have a terrible time offensively. With the many injuries to CAL's Oline Longshore is a sitting duck. He has a real penchant for throwing untimely interceptions and he will be under extreme pressure. Additionally, I think Carrol understands the need to have a blowout victory here as the BCS championship potential is slipping away.

That said I just can't find the conviction that I need to lay 22. No play for now.

Weather updates in games that it may matter:
Seattle RAIN, I am thinking about the UNDER 48.5
Eugene RAIN already on the UNDER
Pullman RAIN, cannot play the under with WSU's D