5-3-1 ATS PAC-10 GAME OF THE WEEK
4-1 ATS Last Week, 32-22 For the Year all lined PAC 10 Games
Oregon was easy money last week…so was UCLA and USC. Dear Washington State…thank you for the safety at the end of the game…The betting gods were with me.
GAME OF THE WEEK (WEEK 9)
WASHINGTON -1.5 VS OREGON
Wow….WOW…I’m posting this early because this is either the easiest money play all year…or the biggest sucker bet trap game in Pac 10 history.
OK, Oregon beat Stanford up last week. Yep, they beat the worst team in the Pac-10, the worst passing team in the Pac-10, in front of the home crowd. And Washington got worked for the second straight home gane against...well against the best team in the country right now.
I saw this line coming out at maybe UW -7 or -8, and would not at all have been surprised to see -10. I still rub my eyes when I see -1.5.
A little history about this game. The Pac-10 is divided between north and south. And while Oregon and Washington play in-state rivals every year, there is no bigger rivalry in the Pac 10 than Oregon v. Washington. USC – UCLA…that’s not a heated rivalry, these guys go have drinks with each other after the game because they are friends and neighbors. Stanford – Cal….com’on now, that is a battle to see who can outdo the other in science class.
Oregon and Washington HATE each other. The coaches hate each other. The players hate each other. It is war. It is Alabama/Tenessee, Ohio State/Michigan, Miami/Florida State.
Let’s break out the history books and see where this rivalry began. In the 1990’s Oregon became a player on the national scene, while their in-state rival Oregon State continued to flounder. Oregon, loaded with a wad of cash from Phil Knights pocketbook, began to dominate the Pac 10, overtaking Washington as the powerhouse of the Northwest. From 1994 to 1998, Oregon won 4 of 5 vs. Washington, two of which were played in Husky Stadium. Oregon went on to become a household name and was basking in the limelight, while Washington became an afterthought.
But instead of starting a proud and respectable tradition, Oregon...players, coaches, and fans alike became perhaps the biggest shit-talking, bad-mouthing team in the country. Their success went straight to their head. They think themselves royalty.
Then the hurricane that was the 2002 season hit, and everyone that could take it out on them did. And as you can see in 2003, teams that can beat them, continue to beat them bad, as did Washington State…as did Arizona State…as will Washington.
Since 1999, Washington has won two of three vs. Oregon, including a 42-14 whipping at Oregon last year. Interestingly, that game was played two games after Oregon beat Stanford by 25 at home.
Washington has an incredible home record, going 48-12 prior to this year. So far in 2003 their home record is 3-2, and it is very rare for Washington to lose more than two games a year at home.
How ‘bout some technical stuff. Over the course of the 2003 season, Oregon has better offensive numbers than Washington, except in passing yards per game. Defensively, the teams are fairly close, with Washington holding a slight edge on total yards per game. But statistics are certainly misleading. For instance, look at Oregon’s scoring defense against teams with winning records in the Pac 10. They are giving up an average of 57 points per game, while their offense has managed a mere 15 ppg. So when you mix in two wins against hapless Stanford and Arizona, the season average comes into balance. Now let’s look at Washington. Their scoring defense against winning teams (UCLA, USC, Oregon State) in the Pac 10 averages 35 ppg. They averaged 26 ppg on offense in these games.
Now, as I’ve harped on the past three weeks here, the way you beat Oregon is to pass the ball. They simply have the worst secondary in the Pac 10. Washington can pass the ball, as Pickett and Williams are one of the best pass-catch combinations in the Pac 10. If you look at Oregon’s offense against solid defenses (Washington State, Utah, even ASU), the output is feeble. Washington has a solid defense.
My only concern in this game is injuries and coaching. Washington RB Alexis and WR Frederick are questionable, and TE Toledo is out. Frederick is a playmaker, the other two are replaceable. As for coaching, big edge to Belotti. Some coaches outsmart themselves with the word “balance”, one that Fat Keith Gilbertson preaches. Keith, sit down and have a lesson with Dirk Koetter, who’s ASU team was struggling going into the Oregon game three weeks ago…Pass the ball downfield and you win by 40. Oregon coach Mike Belotti is a mastermind, and he could keep this a close game. But believe me, if Belotti was coaching Washington, he would never call a run play against his own team.
Washington played their hearts out against Oregon State and won. They played their hearts out against USC and, well, USC is just an incredible football team. I think Washington comes out fired up and lays the wood to Oregon again, similar to last year. The level of competition between last week in this week is a couple rungs down the ladder.
Final Score: Washington 42 – Oregon 14
The rest of the Pac 10 slate.
I really like the games in the Pac AGAIN this week and will be betting three heavily.
Oregon State has the worst quarterback in Div-1 football. If the opposing team has any semblance of a defense, he will throw at least three pics. However, when they play bad teams, he plays adequately enough to let the rest of his team pummel the opponent. Such is the case this week, as Arizona will get their annual ass-whooping from OSU. OSU has beaten Arizona 4-straight, with an average score of 36 – 5. This year should be no different. Look for Steven Jackson to rush for 200+ and the OSU defense to take it out on Arizona.
USC is on track and, since the Cal game, has averaged 42 ppg. After WSU’s emotional win vs. Oregon State, don’t see this team coming in hitting on all cylinders, and quite frankly, their QB has two sore shoulders and might not finish the game after being sacked a couple times by USC’s ferocious D. USC wins by 20.
UCLA is flying under the national radar and should cover this week against a Stanford team that is going backwards. UCLA is the far superior team here and should dominate, at least defensively. This should be a low scoring game.
Arizona State hosts Cal this week. If Andrew Walter’s plays, they should win…if he doesn’t would not be surprised if Cal covers.
Final Predictions:
OSU - 22 vs. Arizona: OSU 38 – Arizona 3
USC – 11 vs. WSU: USC 38 – WSU 17
UCLA – 6 at Stanford: UCLA 21 – Stanford 10
ASU vs. Cal: No Line…no prediction
Good luck all
4-1 ATS Last Week, 32-22 For the Year all lined PAC 10 Games
Oregon was easy money last week…so was UCLA and USC. Dear Washington State…thank you for the safety at the end of the game…The betting gods were with me.
GAME OF THE WEEK (WEEK 9)
WASHINGTON -1.5 VS OREGON
Wow….WOW…I’m posting this early because this is either the easiest money play all year…or the biggest sucker bet trap game in Pac 10 history.
OK, Oregon beat Stanford up last week. Yep, they beat the worst team in the Pac-10, the worst passing team in the Pac-10, in front of the home crowd. And Washington got worked for the second straight home gane against...well against the best team in the country right now.
I saw this line coming out at maybe UW -7 or -8, and would not at all have been surprised to see -10. I still rub my eyes when I see -1.5.
A little history about this game. The Pac-10 is divided between north and south. And while Oregon and Washington play in-state rivals every year, there is no bigger rivalry in the Pac 10 than Oregon v. Washington. USC – UCLA…that’s not a heated rivalry, these guys go have drinks with each other after the game because they are friends and neighbors. Stanford – Cal….com’on now, that is a battle to see who can outdo the other in science class.
Oregon and Washington HATE each other. The coaches hate each other. The players hate each other. It is war. It is Alabama/Tenessee, Ohio State/Michigan, Miami/Florida State.
Let’s break out the history books and see where this rivalry began. In the 1990’s Oregon became a player on the national scene, while their in-state rival Oregon State continued to flounder. Oregon, loaded with a wad of cash from Phil Knights pocketbook, began to dominate the Pac 10, overtaking Washington as the powerhouse of the Northwest. From 1994 to 1998, Oregon won 4 of 5 vs. Washington, two of which were played in Husky Stadium. Oregon went on to become a household name and was basking in the limelight, while Washington became an afterthought.
But instead of starting a proud and respectable tradition, Oregon...players, coaches, and fans alike became perhaps the biggest shit-talking, bad-mouthing team in the country. Their success went straight to their head. They think themselves royalty.
Then the hurricane that was the 2002 season hit, and everyone that could take it out on them did. And as you can see in 2003, teams that can beat them, continue to beat them bad, as did Washington State…as did Arizona State…as will Washington.
Since 1999, Washington has won two of three vs. Oregon, including a 42-14 whipping at Oregon last year. Interestingly, that game was played two games after Oregon beat Stanford by 25 at home.
Washington has an incredible home record, going 48-12 prior to this year. So far in 2003 their home record is 3-2, and it is very rare for Washington to lose more than two games a year at home.
How ‘bout some technical stuff. Over the course of the 2003 season, Oregon has better offensive numbers than Washington, except in passing yards per game. Defensively, the teams are fairly close, with Washington holding a slight edge on total yards per game. But statistics are certainly misleading. For instance, look at Oregon’s scoring defense against teams with winning records in the Pac 10. They are giving up an average of 57 points per game, while their offense has managed a mere 15 ppg. So when you mix in two wins against hapless Stanford and Arizona, the season average comes into balance. Now let’s look at Washington. Their scoring defense against winning teams (UCLA, USC, Oregon State) in the Pac 10 averages 35 ppg. They averaged 26 ppg on offense in these games.
Now, as I’ve harped on the past three weeks here, the way you beat Oregon is to pass the ball. They simply have the worst secondary in the Pac 10. Washington can pass the ball, as Pickett and Williams are one of the best pass-catch combinations in the Pac 10. If you look at Oregon’s offense against solid defenses (Washington State, Utah, even ASU), the output is feeble. Washington has a solid defense.
My only concern in this game is injuries and coaching. Washington RB Alexis and WR Frederick are questionable, and TE Toledo is out. Frederick is a playmaker, the other two are replaceable. As for coaching, big edge to Belotti. Some coaches outsmart themselves with the word “balance”, one that Fat Keith Gilbertson preaches. Keith, sit down and have a lesson with Dirk Koetter, who’s ASU team was struggling going into the Oregon game three weeks ago…Pass the ball downfield and you win by 40. Oregon coach Mike Belotti is a mastermind, and he could keep this a close game. But believe me, if Belotti was coaching Washington, he would never call a run play against his own team.
Washington played their hearts out against Oregon State and won. They played their hearts out against USC and, well, USC is just an incredible football team. I think Washington comes out fired up and lays the wood to Oregon again, similar to last year. The level of competition between last week in this week is a couple rungs down the ladder.
Final Score: Washington 42 – Oregon 14
The rest of the Pac 10 slate.
I really like the games in the Pac AGAIN this week and will be betting three heavily.
Oregon State has the worst quarterback in Div-1 football. If the opposing team has any semblance of a defense, he will throw at least three pics. However, when they play bad teams, he plays adequately enough to let the rest of his team pummel the opponent. Such is the case this week, as Arizona will get their annual ass-whooping from OSU. OSU has beaten Arizona 4-straight, with an average score of 36 – 5. This year should be no different. Look for Steven Jackson to rush for 200+ and the OSU defense to take it out on Arizona.
USC is on track and, since the Cal game, has averaged 42 ppg. After WSU’s emotional win vs. Oregon State, don’t see this team coming in hitting on all cylinders, and quite frankly, their QB has two sore shoulders and might not finish the game after being sacked a couple times by USC’s ferocious D. USC wins by 20.
UCLA is flying under the national radar and should cover this week against a Stanford team that is going backwards. UCLA is the far superior team here and should dominate, at least defensively. This should be a low scoring game.
Arizona State hosts Cal this week. If Andrew Walter’s plays, they should win…if he doesn’t would not be surprised if Cal covers.
Final Predictions:
OSU - 22 vs. Arizona: OSU 38 – Arizona 3
USC – 11 vs. WSU: USC 38 – WSU 17
UCLA – 6 at Stanford: UCLA 21 – Stanford 10
ASU vs. Cal: No Line…no prediction
Good luck all
