WEEK 3
YTD 2-0 – Pac 10 Game of the Week
YTD 6-2 – All Pac 10 Lined Games
Some people think the first week in college football is hard to cap…I think the second week is harder. I still don’t know much about a lot of teams. And there are no gimmies this week (well, one, but even that one might not be a gimme).
Most of you know I’m a former Beaver, and I think I do a pretty good job avoiding any bias when I cap their games. I said last week to not be surprised if OSU took a lead into halftime in Death Valley, and I’m sure some of you thought “Homer”. Well, they actually held it for 59+ minutes. But in classic Mike Riley come from ahead fashion, they lost (this one is on the kicker), but MR certainly did not help his cause by going conservative in the 2nd half.
I did not learn anything from last week’s slate, which makes this week even tougher. ASU can beat up pansies but can they beat a BCS conference team on the road? Cal looked incredible against Air Force, but that is the youngest, most inexperienced AF team in years. Washington is just awful, as expected. WSU struggled, as expected. UCLA is a joke, sorry I picked them to win last week. And USC spent the week teaching their young receivers how to catch a football.
On to the show. I rarely go back to the well twice, I like to spread out my plays among the conference, but this one to me is a no brainer, so I gotta go with it.
PAC 10 PIC OF THE WEEK
OREGON STATE +8 at BOISE STATE
As I said in my earlier thread, I expected this line at 3...five more points is a gift. So much has been hashed out about this game that it’s not worth going into great detail. Quickly, this is what I to like about this game.
OSU is not a WAC school, they are a top-level Pac 10 team, with one of the best defenses in the country, going against an offense returning just three starters. Let me make that clear….QB: untested. RB: untested. WR’s: untested. 3 offensive linemen: untested.
BSU is 1-6 vs. BCS Conference Schools since 2000…yep, 6 of their 8 losses in that span come against the big boys.
OSU racked up 560+ yards against a better Boise State defense last year.
OSU ATS record as away dog since 2000 is very good.
Now, some of you have pointed to some great reasons not to like OSU this week, particularly their mindset after a brutal loss off a short week, BSU’s blue turf and excellent home record, Dan Hawkins vs. Mike Riley. Boise State’s performance at OSU last year, this is Boise State’s superbowl. I’ll even add that Boise State has a better kicker.
I’m guessing some of you probably bet that New Mexico would beat OSU in last year’s Las Vegas Bowl.
Here is the deal. Boise State plays three games all year, then they play the underbelly of Division I football. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying BSU aren’t good, but you put last year’s 12-1 Boise State team in the Pac 10 and I guarantee they don’t make a bowl game. They lose to OSU, Oregon, both Washington schools, Cal, USC, and probably struggle against UCLA and ASU. They are too small, too slow, and on a week-in, week-out basis, they would get beat to shit.
I’d be more worried about this game if Oregon State would have beat LSU. Oregon State wins outright, I got a bunch with the points, a little less on the money line.
Final Score: Oregon State 31 – Boise State 27
Rest of the Pac 10
USC has had two plus weeks to get their team ready for a gritty Colorado State team. USC didn’t look real good last time out, but considering their losses and the environment they were playing in, they sure looked a lot better than last year’s BCS national champs. I’d advise all to stay clear of this game, there is no reason to go either direction, because we don’t know where USC is at this point. If they are running on all cylinders, they cover easily. If they are not, Colorado State puts up a fight. I do know Colorado State has lost just once by more than 24 points in the past four seasons. I guess if you think Reggie Bush will score six touchdowns this one has a chance.
UCLA travels to Illinois to play a team even worse than they. Didn’t Illinois just play in a BCS bowl game two years ago? WTF happened to that program? And UCLA is bad news, boy let me tell ya. But something tells me this is the week they break out of their funk, if not because they are playing a really bad team, then because this may be their only chance at a win all year.
Washington State is home (sort of) to Colorodo, that home being Quest Field in Seattle. Lot’s of boosters, but if I was WSU I’d prefer to play in Pullman. Colorado didn’t really impress me much last week, giving up 400+ yards last week against Colorado State. Washington State has a solid, albeit young, defense, but Will Derting alone is worth 7 points. I’m going with the home team in this game, I really like Bill Doba as a coach.
Cal minus a ton against a bad team that runs a modified option package similar to the one they just shot down in Colorado (the Air Force Academy is in Colorado in case you didn’t know). I don’t know how you don’t go with Cal here, they should win by 50, but laying the wood two weeks in a row is pretty rare for a Pac 10 team unless you have the initials U.S.C.
Arizona gets to play at home against a very good Utah team and I’m all over Utah. Arizona is getting better, but still struggled with a Division II team, which means this squad has a long way to go. Utah means business this year, wants into a BCS conference, and this is one way to prove they belong.
ASU at Northwestern. Last time ASU traveled into Big 10 country they laid a horrendously expensive egg on me. ASU’s defense still has holes and I think if Northwestern keeps their kicker off the field, they win this by two touchdowns.
Oregon plays at home against Indiana and gives 20+ points. That’s a lot for a team that hasn’t played a game yet going against another that looked decent in their opener. Indiana is not a great team. They lost 5 of their six road games last year by 24 points or more. This is also a team that relies on the run, which plays into the strength of the Oregon defense. I’m on the ducks, who have always come out of the chute strong.
BYU beat Notre Dame this year…Notre Dame beat Stanford last year, therefore, BYU will get crushed by Stanford. I like Stanford’s defense, this one should be low scoring. I think Stanford wins by two touchdowns.
The dogs of Washington…not the Huskies, the Poodles, get the week off. Not quite sure why Gilbertson is still coaching up there…if I was Washington’s AD, I’d get on my knees and beg Big Dick Rick to come back.
That’s it for the week.
Final Predictions:
USC -24 vs. Colorado State: USC 37 – Colorado 17
Washington State – 2.5 vs. Colorado: WSU 24 – Colorado 20
UCLA – 2 at Illinois: UCLA 24 – Illinois 20
Cal -33 vs. New Mexico State: Cal 47 – New Mexico 10
Arizona +13 vs. Utah: Utah 44 – Arizona 17
ASU + 2.5 at Northwestern: NW 34 – ASU 28
Oregon -20 vs. Indiana: Oregon 41 – Indiana 17
Stanford -4 vs. BYU: Stanford 31 – BYU 13
Washington NL vs. Nobody: Nobody 33 – Washington 10
Good Luck to all.
YTD 2-0 – Pac 10 Game of the Week
YTD 6-2 – All Pac 10 Lined Games
Some people think the first week in college football is hard to cap…I think the second week is harder. I still don’t know much about a lot of teams. And there are no gimmies this week (well, one, but even that one might not be a gimme).
Most of you know I’m a former Beaver, and I think I do a pretty good job avoiding any bias when I cap their games. I said last week to not be surprised if OSU took a lead into halftime in Death Valley, and I’m sure some of you thought “Homer”. Well, they actually held it for 59+ minutes. But in classic Mike Riley come from ahead fashion, they lost (this one is on the kicker), but MR certainly did not help his cause by going conservative in the 2nd half.
I did not learn anything from last week’s slate, which makes this week even tougher. ASU can beat up pansies but can they beat a BCS conference team on the road? Cal looked incredible against Air Force, but that is the youngest, most inexperienced AF team in years. Washington is just awful, as expected. WSU struggled, as expected. UCLA is a joke, sorry I picked them to win last week. And USC spent the week teaching their young receivers how to catch a football.
On to the show. I rarely go back to the well twice, I like to spread out my plays among the conference, but this one to me is a no brainer, so I gotta go with it.
PAC 10 PIC OF THE WEEK
OREGON STATE +8 at BOISE STATE
As I said in my earlier thread, I expected this line at 3...five more points is a gift. So much has been hashed out about this game that it’s not worth going into great detail. Quickly, this is what I to like about this game.
OSU is not a WAC school, they are a top-level Pac 10 team, with one of the best defenses in the country, going against an offense returning just three starters. Let me make that clear….QB: untested. RB: untested. WR’s: untested. 3 offensive linemen: untested.
BSU is 1-6 vs. BCS Conference Schools since 2000…yep, 6 of their 8 losses in that span come against the big boys.
OSU racked up 560+ yards against a better Boise State defense last year.
OSU ATS record as away dog since 2000 is very good.
Now, some of you have pointed to some great reasons not to like OSU this week, particularly their mindset after a brutal loss off a short week, BSU’s blue turf and excellent home record, Dan Hawkins vs. Mike Riley. Boise State’s performance at OSU last year, this is Boise State’s superbowl. I’ll even add that Boise State has a better kicker.
I’m guessing some of you probably bet that New Mexico would beat OSU in last year’s Las Vegas Bowl.
Here is the deal. Boise State plays three games all year, then they play the underbelly of Division I football. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying BSU aren’t good, but you put last year’s 12-1 Boise State team in the Pac 10 and I guarantee they don’t make a bowl game. They lose to OSU, Oregon, both Washington schools, Cal, USC, and probably struggle against UCLA and ASU. They are too small, too slow, and on a week-in, week-out basis, they would get beat to shit.
I’d be more worried about this game if Oregon State would have beat LSU. Oregon State wins outright, I got a bunch with the points, a little less on the money line.
Final Score: Oregon State 31 – Boise State 27
Rest of the Pac 10
USC has had two plus weeks to get their team ready for a gritty Colorado State team. USC didn’t look real good last time out, but considering their losses and the environment they were playing in, they sure looked a lot better than last year’s BCS national champs. I’d advise all to stay clear of this game, there is no reason to go either direction, because we don’t know where USC is at this point. If they are running on all cylinders, they cover easily. If they are not, Colorado State puts up a fight. I do know Colorado State has lost just once by more than 24 points in the past four seasons. I guess if you think Reggie Bush will score six touchdowns this one has a chance.
UCLA travels to Illinois to play a team even worse than they. Didn’t Illinois just play in a BCS bowl game two years ago? WTF happened to that program? And UCLA is bad news, boy let me tell ya. But something tells me this is the week they break out of their funk, if not because they are playing a really bad team, then because this may be their only chance at a win all year.
Washington State is home (sort of) to Colorodo, that home being Quest Field in Seattle. Lot’s of boosters, but if I was WSU I’d prefer to play in Pullman. Colorado didn’t really impress me much last week, giving up 400+ yards last week against Colorado State. Washington State has a solid, albeit young, defense, but Will Derting alone is worth 7 points. I’m going with the home team in this game, I really like Bill Doba as a coach.
Cal minus a ton against a bad team that runs a modified option package similar to the one they just shot down in Colorado (the Air Force Academy is in Colorado in case you didn’t know). I don’t know how you don’t go with Cal here, they should win by 50, but laying the wood two weeks in a row is pretty rare for a Pac 10 team unless you have the initials U.S.C.
Arizona gets to play at home against a very good Utah team and I’m all over Utah. Arizona is getting better, but still struggled with a Division II team, which means this squad has a long way to go. Utah means business this year, wants into a BCS conference, and this is one way to prove they belong.
ASU at Northwestern. Last time ASU traveled into Big 10 country they laid a horrendously expensive egg on me. ASU’s defense still has holes and I think if Northwestern keeps their kicker off the field, they win this by two touchdowns.
Oregon plays at home against Indiana and gives 20+ points. That’s a lot for a team that hasn’t played a game yet going against another that looked decent in their opener. Indiana is not a great team. They lost 5 of their six road games last year by 24 points or more. This is also a team that relies on the run, which plays into the strength of the Oregon defense. I’m on the ducks, who have always come out of the chute strong.
BYU beat Notre Dame this year…Notre Dame beat Stanford last year, therefore, BYU will get crushed by Stanford. I like Stanford’s defense, this one should be low scoring. I think Stanford wins by two touchdowns.
The dogs of Washington…not the Huskies, the Poodles, get the week off. Not quite sure why Gilbertson is still coaching up there…if I was Washington’s AD, I’d get on my knees and beg Big Dick Rick to come back.
That’s it for the week.
Final Predictions:
USC -24 vs. Colorado State: USC 37 – Colorado 17
Washington State – 2.5 vs. Colorado: WSU 24 – Colorado 20
UCLA – 2 at Illinois: UCLA 24 – Illinois 20
Cal -33 vs. New Mexico State: Cal 47 – New Mexico 10
Arizona +13 vs. Utah: Utah 44 – Arizona 17
ASU + 2.5 at Northwestern: NW 34 – ASU 28
Oregon -20 vs. Indiana: Oregon 41 – Indiana 17
Stanford -4 vs. BYU: Stanford 31 – BYU 13
Washington NL vs. Nobody: Nobody 33 – Washington 10
Good Luck to all.
