Pac 10 Pick of the Week

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2003 PAC 10 PICS OF THE WEEK: 9-5-1 Regular Season Record

39-32 For the year all lined PAC 10 Games

Another successful season playing the PAC 10. As we enter the bowl season, it was painfully obvious that this was a down year in the Pac 10, with the exception of the No. 1 team in the country, USC Trojans.

Some thoughts on the BCS system, none of which offer any new angle to this disaster. I’ve read many a post about the fact USC played an easy schedule and does not deserve to play in the BCS national championship game. Obviously I’m going to disagree with that.

At the start of the season, it was widely believed that USC had one of the most difficult schedules in the country, with away non-conference games at Auburn and Notre Dame. USC took care of business, and as it turns out, the teams on their slate did not play as expected. Should they be punished for this? Obviously the computers think so.

But let’s consider how each BCS conference team with one loss lost. USC lost on the road by 3 points, in overtime, to a 7-5 bowl team. LSU lost at home by 12 to an 8-4 bowl team. Oklahoma lost the conference championship by 4 touchdowns. Let me repeat that…FOUR TOUCHDOWNS. That’s a blow-out my friend, and whatever kudos they earned during the year was certainly pissed away by their absolutely uninspired effort, which should have completely knocked them out of contention for the BCS title game.

Another consideration is that two of the three teams with one loss won their conference. If a team does not win its conference, it certainly does not deserve to play for the national championship. And quite frankly, the computers should include this as criteria in their programming. In previous years, the system was designed to work that if a team loses at the end of the season, they are eliminated. Of course, this does not apply to the Big 12, which has now placed two teams in the past three years that did not win their conference in the BCS title game.

The nation’s love affair with Big 12 football continues to amaze me. Without a doubt, the two best conferences in the nation were the Big 10 and SEC. The Big 12 was better top to bottom than in years past, but put Nebraska in the Big 10 and they have a losing record, I guarantee it.

And while USC continues to have its doubters, give this team, and especially its coaching staff credit. They lost over half of last year’s team (only 10 returning starters), including nearly every skill position player, and came back in grand fashion. While their defense has had some key injuries this year and has not played as well as last year’s, I believe USC’s offense is THE BEST IN THE COUNTRY, hands down. There is more NFL talent on the offensive side of the ball than perhaps any team in college football history. Yes, I said it, HISTORY. There are 6 or 7 FIRST ROUND NFL picks in this group, and would not be surprised if all of the current offensive starters are drafted upon elegibility, plus the kicker and punter. Keep in mind, QB Leinert and WR Williams are sophomores, and RB’s White and Bush are TRUE Freshman. Watch out for Reggie Bush, he is very similar to Marshall Faulk and Priest Homes, except he is much faster than these two players.

And that Pete Carroll wasn’t the coach of the year was a crime. No coach had that much turnover, this much youth and produced so much.

And by the way, I hate USC. But because I’m stuck with Mike Riley coaching my hometown Corvallis Beavers, who took a team returning nearly everyone and produced a worse record than the year before, in what was obviously a down year in the Pac 10, I’ve got little to cheer for…except this week’s…

GAME OF THE WEEK (LAS VEGAS BOWL)


OREGON STATE –1.5 VS. NEW MEXICO

Oregon State was one of the biggest disappointments in college football this year. Statistically speaking, they were one of the best teams in the country on both sides of the ball (13th offense; 12th defense). They returned three of the best offensive players in the Pac 10, and still managed to have a worse record than the prior year. Dennis Erickson would have had this team playing for a BCS Bowl…Mike Riley has them playing in the…Las Vegas Bowl?

And in that game they will play a stout New Mexico team that has played admirably down the stretch and earned its second straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. And come Christmas Day 2003…it’s second straight loss.

Here’s the deal, folks. The Mountain West Conference is a solid step below the Pac 10, ½ step below the WAC (yes, the WAC), and a ½ step better than the Sunbelt. New Mexico was 0-1 vs. Pac 10 teams this year, while their opponents were 2-6 vs. Pac 10 teams (0-6 if you exclude Utah). The skill level on both sides of the ball is vastly superior.

This game looks just like last year’s Las Vegas Bowl. New Mexico had momentum at the end of the year winning five of its last six games to earn the 2nd seed in the MWC. Still, a 10.5 underdog against a 5th place Pac 10 UCLA team that lost five of its last seven games, one with a lame duck coach (in fact, the team was coached by committee for that game) with nothing in the world to play for. Final result, UCLA won and covered 27-13.

Oregon State came into the season as a potential major player and finished as a major chump. I hang that firmly on Mike Riley, whose team was often not prepared, not disciplined (penalties galore) did not make in-game adjustments, and, although the offense racked up tons of yardage, the offensive scheme produced many three and outs or long drives ending in turnovers. This team was Jeckyll and Hyde all year, dominating many games and choking away others.

So which OSU team will show up for the Las Vegas Bowl? Well, I’m going with the dominating, suffocating Beavers, as this team seems to light up teams with inferior skill players. I know, I know, New Mexico has a great running back and a good offensive and defensive line. But if Oregon State played New Mexico’s schedule, they would have had maybe two losses, top 5 statistics on offense and defense, and then we’d be talking about how great Oregon State is.

Furthermore, OSU’s last game was against USC. The overall speed and athletic ability of New Mexico is going to seem like playing against a Division II team for Oregon State after playing against all those 5-Star recruits.

Oregon State beats teams at this level (i.e. Boise State, Cal, Fresno State)…UUUGHH, oh yeah, Mike Riley forgot to send in the field goal team against Fresno State and let them come from behind to win on a last second field goal.

Oregon State has the better offense (13th ranked nationally versus 29th for New Mexico). Certainly New Mexico can run the ball, but so can Oregon State, as both have big name, big game running backs. In fact, all New Mexico does is run the ball. The big edge here is Oregon State’s passing game (6th in the nation versus 81st for New Mexico), which averages over 320 yards per game. New Mexico has a solid run defense, but they have not seen a passing offense, especially receivers, as good and as big and as fast as Oregon State’s. And with the country’s 82nd ranked pass defense, this could be a long day for the Lobo’s.

Defensively Oregon State is ranked 12th in the country, compared to New Mexico’s 18th ranked squad. However, as mentioned above, with the 82nd ranked pass defense, look for several 40+ yard plays from Oregon State. Derrick Anderson should get 400 yards passing here…shoot, he did versus USC and I’d venture to say USC is a bit better than New Mexico.

I might be looking through my Orange and Black colored glasses, but I look for New Mexico’s one dimensional offense to play into the Beaver’s hands, and Oregon State to connect on several quick scoring drives that will be the difference in this game.

FINAL SCORE: Oregon State 34 – New Mexico 24
 

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Expect a steady dose of Stephen Jackson in the 2nd half. In previous OSU blow-outs, Riley has put in the 2nd and 3rd teams on defense, and opposing teams have put up points (see Arizona 23 4th Quarter Points).
 

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Good info, do you think Riley will follow suit even though this is a bowl game?
 

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It depends how out of hand it gets. If OSU goes up by another 10 points, he will definitely pull the defensive starters. He does not like to run it up and show up an opposing team or coach.
 

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WC
Keep em going.
Excellent write up bro.
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WC,

With ya on the strength of schedule. If PAC10 teams continue to win I wonder what new argument BCS guru's will come up with. Real test comes in Holiday bowl when Pac10 #2 plays Big 12 #2. Most consider UT second best team in the Big12 and they would have gotten the other BCS slot had KSU not beaten OU.

GL,
WinOne!!
 

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