2003 PAC 10 PICS OF THE WEEK: 9-5-1 ATS Regular Season Record
2-1 ATS Bowls
Pac 10 teams are now 3-2 in the bowl season with one game left. I think perhaps that maybe the Pac 10 isn't the only soft conference, maybe they all are.
I apologize on behalf of all west coast football fans and the entire Pac 10 football conference for the miserable, horible, disgusting, and outright disgraceful performance of UCLA in the Silicon Valley Classless. That I bet on that team, in that game, in this forum, hurts me deeply, and I am truly ashamed. Karl Dorrell might not make it through next season, he is truly clueless.
Now, on to something that brought much joy and cheer to my heart....the Holiday Bowl. Anyone who reads my posts probably gets sick of my rants against the Little 12, the posers and candy asses and huskers and maggots that start every year with three or four teams in the top 10, then get the benefit of staying up near the top even as they fall from grace. I don't know which was the bigger thud...Oklahoma getting exposed by K-State, or Texas getting punked on national TV by PAC-10 also ran Washington State. I asked you before the game and I'll ask again, have you ever seen a more overhyped football prgram than the Texas Longhorns? That was a beautiful game to watch in Las Vegas, surrounded by so many burnt orange and red faced Longhorn fans. By the way, where were you Bernie, I was hoping to hear your "Pac-10 sucks" mantra as WSU whooped up on the highly favored Big-12 representative.
I hope they give Mack Brown a contract extension, because he sure is a good recruiter!
Well, the first Pac 10 football game of 2004 goes today, and I'm pretty sure you all know where I'm putting my money, so lets get this thing rollin'
PAC 10 PLAY OF THE DAY
USC -6.5 vs. Michigan
Surprised that this line has moved up to 7 in some books, I really thought the line would move the other way.
7 points is a lot to give a very good Michigan football team. The more I investigated this team, the more I saw a potential national championship flushed down the toilet in Eugene, Oregon...That's right, Michigan already lost one game to a Pac 10 team.
Nah...that's not nearly enough to make me bet USC, because that same week USC was losing up at CAL.
So I'll focus how each team did after their first loss. Michigan bounced back against pansy Indiana, only to lose the following week at another good team, Iowa. They then went to Minnesota and pulled off the comeback of the 2003 college football season, which was the turning point of their season. They went on to beat the next five teams they faced (including four bowl teams) by an average margin of 24 points.
USC had no letdown after losing at Cal, destroying the next eight opponents by an average of 27 points...and that was with the mercy rule in full effect by the mid-3rd quarter in many of those games.
So both teams come in peaking...or at least were peaking a month ago. Does either team benefit from the time off? Not really. USC had some nicked players at the end of the year so the time off will get them healthy, but I don't expect either team to make any drastic changes to their philosophy.
Regarding team statistics, these teams are very evenly matched. The biggest difference is in pass defense, as Michigan's was 6th and USC's was a miserable 110th! I personally do not give much credence to that because Michigan faced absolutely no one that passes the ball, especially not as good as USC does (or Washington, or Arizona State, or Oregon State). USC on the otherhand played the majority of games against passing teams, and some of those yards came in mop-up time. In sum, Michigan certainly gets the edge in the secondary, but they have not played anywhere near the offense they will face today. So let's talk about that.
Offensively, there is a big edge to USC. Navarre, Perry, and Edwards are all nice, but nothing near what USC's defense has already faced this year. Flip that around. Michigan's defense has not seen anything like what USC will throw at them today. Show me a team on their schedule that has six or seven future first round NFL picks. Show me a team on their schedule that has the depth that USC has on offense. When I look at Michigan's schedule, quite frankly, the only team they played with an "above average" offense is Minnesota, and that imbalanced attack rushed for 400 yards and scored 35 points.
Likewise, USC probably has not seen a defense like Michigan's, but they have seen some very good defenses this year (didja see what Washington State did to Texas...or Oregon State to New Mexico...or Auburn to Wisconsin).
These teams are pretty even in the trenches. Michigan's O-line gets a lot more pub than USC's, but USC has so many glory players that the line is always overlooked.
But the biggest difference I see in this game, and where USC has a decided difference, is team speed. USC is the fastest football team I have ever seen on both side of the ball. Michigan does have some flyers, but not to the level that USC has. And you will see this on special teams, where USC's brings one of the best in the country.
Also, I see a big coaching edge to USC. I don't care what Carr's record is against top 10 teams this year, I do know they lost to two teams in the top 25 this year. The Chow/Carroll team is one of the best coordinator tandem in college, if not the best.
And finally, motivation. Everyone seems to think USC is overlooking Michigan. Forget it, Carroll will have his troops focused. USC get's to play for the National Championship, in their home city, in their conference bowl. They will be as sharp today as they have all year. Michigan has had their let-downs on the road, three times, actually, so I see the fact this game being played in LA as a big advantage to USC.
One other little tidbit of information I'm sure most of you are aware of. USC was 10-2 ATS this year, and since mid-way through last year has covered 17 of their last 19 games! Yep, 17-2, that is a remarkable streak, especially considering the linesmakers have inflated the shit out of their lines.
A lot to digest, but a really good game against two great football teams. I really don't see Michigan keeping USC from getting in the high 30's if not into the 40's. I do think Michigan will get their share of points, but in the end they will end up like most teams that play against USC, in the losing column.
FINAL SCORE: USC 38 – Michigan 27
Good luck and Happy New Year!
2-1 ATS Bowls
Pac 10 teams are now 3-2 in the bowl season with one game left. I think perhaps that maybe the Pac 10 isn't the only soft conference, maybe they all are.
I apologize on behalf of all west coast football fans and the entire Pac 10 football conference for the miserable, horible, disgusting, and outright disgraceful performance of UCLA in the Silicon Valley Classless. That I bet on that team, in that game, in this forum, hurts me deeply, and I am truly ashamed. Karl Dorrell might not make it through next season, he is truly clueless.
Now, on to something that brought much joy and cheer to my heart....the Holiday Bowl. Anyone who reads my posts probably gets sick of my rants against the Little 12, the posers and candy asses and huskers and maggots that start every year with three or four teams in the top 10, then get the benefit of staying up near the top even as they fall from grace. I don't know which was the bigger thud...Oklahoma getting exposed by K-State, or Texas getting punked on national TV by PAC-10 also ran Washington State. I asked you before the game and I'll ask again, have you ever seen a more overhyped football prgram than the Texas Longhorns? That was a beautiful game to watch in Las Vegas, surrounded by so many burnt orange and red faced Longhorn fans. By the way, where were you Bernie, I was hoping to hear your "Pac-10 sucks" mantra as WSU whooped up on the highly favored Big-12 representative.
I hope they give Mack Brown a contract extension, because he sure is a good recruiter!
Well, the first Pac 10 football game of 2004 goes today, and I'm pretty sure you all know where I'm putting my money, so lets get this thing rollin'
PAC 10 PLAY OF THE DAY
USC -6.5 vs. Michigan
Surprised that this line has moved up to 7 in some books, I really thought the line would move the other way.
7 points is a lot to give a very good Michigan football team. The more I investigated this team, the more I saw a potential national championship flushed down the toilet in Eugene, Oregon...That's right, Michigan already lost one game to a Pac 10 team.
Nah...that's not nearly enough to make me bet USC, because that same week USC was losing up at CAL.
So I'll focus how each team did after their first loss. Michigan bounced back against pansy Indiana, only to lose the following week at another good team, Iowa. They then went to Minnesota and pulled off the comeback of the 2003 college football season, which was the turning point of their season. They went on to beat the next five teams they faced (including four bowl teams) by an average margin of 24 points.
USC had no letdown after losing at Cal, destroying the next eight opponents by an average of 27 points...and that was with the mercy rule in full effect by the mid-3rd quarter in many of those games.
So both teams come in peaking...or at least were peaking a month ago. Does either team benefit from the time off? Not really. USC had some nicked players at the end of the year so the time off will get them healthy, but I don't expect either team to make any drastic changes to their philosophy.
Regarding team statistics, these teams are very evenly matched. The biggest difference is in pass defense, as Michigan's was 6th and USC's was a miserable 110th! I personally do not give much credence to that because Michigan faced absolutely no one that passes the ball, especially not as good as USC does (or Washington, or Arizona State, or Oregon State). USC on the otherhand played the majority of games against passing teams, and some of those yards came in mop-up time. In sum, Michigan certainly gets the edge in the secondary, but they have not played anywhere near the offense they will face today. So let's talk about that.
Offensively, there is a big edge to USC. Navarre, Perry, and Edwards are all nice, but nothing near what USC's defense has already faced this year. Flip that around. Michigan's defense has not seen anything like what USC will throw at them today. Show me a team on their schedule that has six or seven future first round NFL picks. Show me a team on their schedule that has the depth that USC has on offense. When I look at Michigan's schedule, quite frankly, the only team they played with an "above average" offense is Minnesota, and that imbalanced attack rushed for 400 yards and scored 35 points.
Likewise, USC probably has not seen a defense like Michigan's, but they have seen some very good defenses this year (didja see what Washington State did to Texas...or Oregon State to New Mexico...or Auburn to Wisconsin).
These teams are pretty even in the trenches. Michigan's O-line gets a lot more pub than USC's, but USC has so many glory players that the line is always overlooked.
But the biggest difference I see in this game, and where USC has a decided difference, is team speed. USC is the fastest football team I have ever seen on both side of the ball. Michigan does have some flyers, but not to the level that USC has. And you will see this on special teams, where USC's brings one of the best in the country.
Also, I see a big coaching edge to USC. I don't care what Carr's record is against top 10 teams this year, I do know they lost to two teams in the top 25 this year. The Chow/Carroll team is one of the best coordinator tandem in college, if not the best.
And finally, motivation. Everyone seems to think USC is overlooking Michigan. Forget it, Carroll will have his troops focused. USC get's to play for the National Championship, in their home city, in their conference bowl. They will be as sharp today as they have all year. Michigan has had their let-downs on the road, three times, actually, so I see the fact this game being played in LA as a big advantage to USC.
One other little tidbit of information I'm sure most of you are aware of. USC was 10-2 ATS this year, and since mid-way through last year has covered 17 of their last 19 games! Yep, 17-2, that is a remarkable streak, especially considering the linesmakers have inflated the shit out of their lines.
A lot to digest, but a really good game against two great football teams. I really don't see Michigan keeping USC from getting in the high 30's if not into the 40's. I do think Michigan will get their share of points, but in the end they will end up like most teams that play against USC, in the losing column.
FINAL SCORE: USC 38 – Michigan 27
Good luck and Happy New Year!
