PAC 10 media day + my predictions

[UoweDucks]

First off here are the media picks for the conference:

1, USC (38 first-place votes), 389 total points
2, Arizona State, 330
3, Oregon, 295
4, Cal (1), 274
5, UCLA, 204
6, Oregon State, 192
7, Arizona, 185
8, Washington, 139
9, Stanford, 76
10, Washington State, 61

I really disagree with a few of these. Here is my prediction:

1, USC - No Brainer, great schedule, only weakness could be offensive production, could struggle with teams that have offensive firepower and speed to match that D. ie Oregon
2, Oregon - Tougher schedule but will own the trenches in almost every contest, also team depth has never been this good.
3, ASU - Too many ?'s at Oline to put them at 2
4, Arizona - Offensively this may be top team in conf. Will surprise people
5, Cal - I think CAL is the enigma team, giving Tedford the credit though, thinking 7 wins
6, Oregon State - Way too many ?'s at QB and front 7 defensively to put higher
7, UCLA - Oline issues will kill this team all year long. Look for at least 2 more qb's to go down over year
8, Washington - Locker is terrific, but too much youth and inexperience will hurt them
9, Stanford - Love the D. If offense can stay healthy could surprise to the upside. Love them in game one vs OSU
10, Washington State - Tough first year for Wulf, no depth in key areas defensively this team will be easy to score on.


I have been working on my composite schedule breakdown and will post when finished...

 

[GoSooners]

Ducks..I agree about ASU...I just don't see the fascination with this team. I would almost rather lose my QB and WR's than my entire O-Line..People don't realize how important this group is to having a successful offense..If they can get it done with this inexperienced group, more power to them. But I think even third place will be an accomplishment.

And me and you are thinking along the same lines with Arizona. The big thing here is if all of these JC transfers they plugged into the key spots on defense will come through. I still think that if nothing else, this will be a good cover team throughout the year.

 

[SoonerBS]

Thanks for your thoughts, Ducks . . . .

 

[asudevil88]

Even the media in Tucson don't buy the hype:

Gimino: There's USC and . . .
Trojans are step ahead of all Pac-10 contenders
ANTHONY GIMINO
Tucson Citizen
USC has taken all the drama out of the Pac-10 prediction game. Depending on when you read this, the Trojans will be or have been selected to win the league - again.
How's that for a safe bet?
Thursday is Pac-10 Media Day in Los Angeles. It's the same old song at the top, droning on like the 'SC band playing "Fight On" seemingly after every play.
This is the day that the whole conglomeration of Pac-10 media - old, new, electronic, legally insane - gets its soothsayer say, but there's no need to stop with just this season.
Just to save some time, I went ahead and picked the Trojans to win the Pac-10 in 2009 and 2010 and 2011. . .
It's not so much about who is going to win the Pac-10, it's about how every other team will get in line for the leftovers. It looks like a one-team, four-tier league.
There's the USC-looking-down-at-everyone tier. You'll recognize this. The Trojans have won six consecutive conference championships, a Pac-10 record.
There is the modest-challenger tier: Arizona State, Cal and Oregon.
There is the gee-a-bowl-game-would-be-nice tier: UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford and Washington.
The teams on this level have about half the puzzle. We could build something close to whole if we could do something like mix Arizona's offense with UCLA's defense and Oregon State's ability to overachieve.
Washington State - with a new coach, off-field woes, a new quarterback and no depth - deserves a lonely tier of its own at the bottom.
To get more specific, here is how I picked Nos. 1 through 10 in the Pac-10 media poll:
1. USC. I was thinking about this the other day: I figure the Trojans have been one play away from winning the past three national titles (which would have given them five in a row).
I'll explain.
The 2005 season is obvious. Make a first down late in the national championship game against Texas, or stop Vince Young on fourth down, and the Trojans win that one.
In 2006, USC was in scoring position late against UCLA, when the Bruins' Eric McNeal deflected and intercepted a pass. That sealed a 13-9 UCLA upset on the last day of the season, knocking the Trojans out of the national championship game, where they would have destroyed Ohio State.
In 2007, another failure to get a fourth-down stop in a mind-bending, midseason loss to Stanford ended up giving USC a two-loss season.
A one-loss season would have put the Trojans ahead of two-loss LSU in the BCS standings . . . and they would have gone to the national championship game, where they would have destroyed Ohio State.
2. Arizona State. The Sun Devils got by on guts, coaching and an easy schedule last season.
They should be better in coach Dennis Erickson's second season, but they won't stay within two touchdowns of Georgia on Sept. 20.
Let's just say the second tier of the Pac-10 doesn't come close to matching up this year to comparable levels in the SEC and Big 12.
3. Cal. The Bears' collapse in the second half of the season was as much a failure of spirit and communication as it was the lack of mobility from quarterback Nate Longshore.
Coach Jeff Tedford addressed the first two things in the offseason and can fix the third by picking Kevin Riley as his quarterback. Hard to see a Tedford-coached team struggling like that again.
4. Oregon. Good enough for second place if the quarterback depth chart is happily resolved and junior college transfer running back LaGarrette Blount is as good in the fall as he was in spring.
Other than that, coach Mike Bellotti is still wondering how he has been outscored 106-100 in four games against Mike Stoops' underdog Wildcats.
5. UCLA. Best part of Media Day: Seeing if UCLA's Rick Neuheisel or USC's Pete Carroll draws a bigger crowd around the lunch table. We'll put the betting odds at Neuheisel minus 2 1/2 reporters. I'd hate to be the half.
As for the football, Neuheisel's first year at UCLA should be like most of Karl Dorrell's seasons . . . eh.
6. Oregon State. Perhaps too much respect for a team replacing its entire front seven on defense, with uncertainty at quarterback, special teams and running back.
Call it amends for underrating the Beavers in each of the past two years.
7. Arizona. The Pac-10 has seven bowl tie-ins this season with the addition of the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Seventh place. Seven bowl tie-ins. End of nine-year postseason drought.
8. Stanford. The Cardinal have good, experienced talent on defense, and that is what second-year coach Jim Harbaugh wanted to build his program around. The offense is still a ways away.
9. Washington. Short of entering Husky Stadium by walking across Lake Washington, there is only so much that sophomore quarterback Jake Locker can do.
10. Washington State. New coach Paul Wulff, hired from Eastern Washington, brings in a no-huddle offense. That will make the Cougs somewhat interesting, if nothing else.
Anthony Gimino's e-mail: agimino@tucsoncitizen.com

 

[Conan]

Intangibles

UoD,

Some of my reading lately has turned up a few VERY interesting ideas that figure into projecting how well a team can be expected to play... things that have NOTHING to do with "how many returning starters" a team has in a given year.

USC's losses are as big as anyone's but they are so deep and experienced and talented, the returning starter stat means almost nothing by comparison.

It would interest me to see your thoughts on the actual finish in the standings for 2008. Not that I would hold you to it but I'd like to see how these "power rankings" translate into W/L based on schedule and other factors. You have to allow for some upsets and perhaps some unknown factors based on probability and history. Intangibles.

For example, UCLA will likely have as much talent as Cal, but Cal has a winning edge going for itself assuming that they've shaken off last year's "dump." UCLA by its nature will flounder. 1st year Neuheisel and Chow or NOT!

Stanford looks poised to win 4 or 5 games though seeing beyond 3 with their schedule is difficult. I think Harbaugh will beat some teams he shouldn't this time around. (Like last year but not quite as dramatic.)

UW is a mystery team in the way TW's teams play very tough competitive football with anyone. At least until their players get beat up during the course of the season. They are also perhaps the best example in the conference (aside from USC) as road warriors. It's easy to forget how much Locker impacts games. A little more support and they will win games they shouldn't too.

You know I am optimistic about OSU, and it's because they always seem to be motivated by the "can't do" naysayers who give them something to fight for. I am also aware of a quiet confidence that they have on that team. They truly believe that they can beat anyone and it shows. (eventually) Simi Kuli's presence would be huge, not everything but I think him being on the team would be worth a win. Moevao making it as starting QB might be worth a couple wins over Canfield too. JMO.

Oregon has a way of losing a game it shouldn't (historically) and it's anyone's guess what might occur after that happens. I do mean it's a 50-50 thing. However their program has grown immeasurably in the way a perennial powerhouse should. This is new but it's true.

I can see ASU having big problems with some of the so called 2nd tier teams this season. I don't think they will have the same "ambush" advantage they did last year with Erickson's TOTAL flip, stressing more defense than offense on previous ASU teams.

There are some specific things that I must see to believe that Oregon's offense will be successful as it was last year. 1.) Nate Costa must mature and play well to the limit of his ability. 2.) Their inside defensive line must be successful getting into the backfield at times but stuffing the rush often. 3.) The need at least 2 guys to excel at WR. 4.) It would also help a lot if they can show a decent pass rush. I believe they can do this.

I think there's even an argument to be made for the Beavers that they've benefited from the tail draft that the Duck program has created in the state allowing the Beavers to "ride the draft" like a race car. But Riley has matured as a coach and to his credit, the entire program shows it. Specifically what I mean by that is like Oregon, they can lose some very important players and not go into rebuilding mode entirely, but reloading more like USC.

Loosely, I can recall a couple of people here writing off some teams that had some serious turnover on their OL. I think perhaps ASU was one of the examples. But in both cases (I don't remember the other off hand) what graduated from the team couldn't have made any other starting team in the conference anyway. You get the idea.

So while it is a fairly accurate way to gauge a team by counting it's returning starters, that is far from getting it where the whole picture is concerned. Intangibles do add up and the #returning starters statistic can easily lead people to dismiss the other factors that weigh just as heavily. By week 8 or 9 the # of returning starters mean a lot less than at the start. That's easy to see but it's the other "experience" and "ability" factors as well as the intangibles that mustn't be overlooked from the beginning. Rating the coaches can also help out a lot.

In any event, covering lines is a bigger win than predicting a SU winner and I think this kind of material is gold in that respect.

I'm just trying here to expand the thinking here a little more... for the sake of better handicapping the conference.

 

[straightcashhomie]

Not a big Pac-10, myself. USC looks excellent once again. Cant wait until they host the Buckeyes!

 

[UoweDucks]

Lots to digest there Conan.

I would start by saying that it was my predicted order of finish, not necessarily a power poll.

As for returning starters I get what you are saying I've seen teams not get credit for a returning starter yet the guy coming in may have had 30 snaps last year... I look at that stuff and some of it applies to OSU's D since you noted them. However, even though a lot of these new starters have snaps under their belts the guys behind them have none. This goes to quality depth and the teams that I downgrade just don't have it in the areas of concern...

This is where recruiting rankings matter to me. In last few years the best teams have built depth with higher rated guys. These recruits seem to be ready to contribute much quicker. That is to say that a team like Oregon state who never scores high in the ratings gets a lot of those under the radar guys and coaches them up. It may take 1-2 more years for those kind of guys to be ready to contribute as opposed to their higher rated counterparts. This is not a knock on OSU but a compliment that they can be so damn competitive with the hand they are dealt.

One thing that I will say, I weight teams with solid lines higher than those that are fresh all else being equal. I don't think that the beat reporters get that deep. In fact I would wager that over 50% of the beat reporters couldn't name the all of the OL or DL starters at any other conference schools. I've exchanged emails with some of the P10 guys and come to the conclusion that many of them are lemmings relying on the SID to feed them their article content...

 

[Conan]

Not only that UoD, but I'd also like to point out that the consensus regarding the "overachievers" we've been talking about seems to be more consistent than the rest of the conference predictions right down the line. The annuals agree on a few things but disagree on plenty of others to tip you off to the fact that they are essentially cloning each other's opinions when they aren't going way out on a limb with their own. I guess that's why we talk about this stuff. To clone or not to clone, that is the big question.

 

[Conan]

As for returning starters I get what you are saying I've seen teams not get credit for a returning starter yet the guy coming in may have had 30 snaps last year... I look at that stuff and some of it applies to OSU's D since you noted them. However, even though a lot of these new starters have snaps under their belts the guys behind them have none. This goes to quality depth and the teams that I downgrade just don't have it in the areas of concern...

OK, I'll go there. But I think the answer to the above is how well the school can provide for an athlete's development. That figures heavily into the future when taking raw recruits and making front line starters out of them. It's no wonder that Oregon has almost developed into a perennial power in the conference... coming from somewhere in the middle with a good year every now and then. Having an athlete mill is the way the better programs survive from year to year.

I am a little vague about going too deep into the Beaver depth charts at this point, but I think they had a pretty good practice squad with several very good red shirts last year. Point taken about their recruiting numbers and their need to find athletes who have been overlooked and underrated. Seems to be their way of doing things. It does the state good and everyone gets better looks because of both school's recent successes.

And if Dennis Erickson can do it....


PS... The juice bar is a brilliant idea.

 

[Conan]

...and while we are on the subject for now...

The silence coming out of Cal is deafening.

 

[UoweDucks]

...and while we are on the subject for now...

The silence coming out of Cal is deafening.

I struggled the most with CAL this offseason. Last years team crumbled and by most accounts Tedford lost his team. It happens to the best of them.

In projecting them as high as I did I take it on faith that he has done the right things in getting them back. His discipline and new hires seems to have righted the ship. I get that from player interviews.

Now he has some very talented players on that team with some ? marks as well. Biggest in my mind is the QB battle. He is being very stubborn with Longshore. As I see it from an outsiders perspective Longshore isn't the answer. Riley was exceptional in the OSU game and again in the bowl game last year. He seems to have the moxy to lead the team that Longshore doesn't.

 

[Conan]

I struggled the most with CAL this offseason. Last years team crumbled and by most accounts Tedford lost his team. It happens to the best of them.

In projecting them as high as I did I take it on faith that he has done the right things in getting them back. His discipline and new hires seems to have righted the ship. I get that from player interviews.

Now he has some very talented players on that team with some ? marks as well. Biggest in my mind is the QB battle. He is being very stubborn with Longshore. As I see it from an outsiders perspective Longshore isn't the answer. Riley was exceptional in the OSU game and again in the bowl game last year. He seems to have the moxy to lead the team that Longshore doesn't.

I think he's done what needed to be done too. Just because that's Jeff Tedford. From what I gather, they will have a pretty good defense this year. I agree with you about Riley too, a Beaverton kid it just so happens to be. Longshore has been a disappointment in more than one instance. Remember he was expected to take the team but was hurt when Ayoob took over after W1. That was a few years ago. He's shown signs of indecision several time since that I've seen. Tedford's reputation with QB's has suffered ever since. The only hope I have for Longshore is that perhaps in his senior season he will be ready to lead the team. Other than that, I agree with you that Riley is money in the bank. Should be interesting to see who comes up to play for Cal at the other skill positions. I've heard that kid who transfered from Florida is the real deal. Nyan Boatang. At least we will have a good idea of who's who on that team by W3 when they travel to MD. Between the Mich. St. and the Terrapin games the Bears will have shown us their best hand.

 

[Conan]

Not good

Oregon suspends LB Garrett


EUGENE, Ore. (AP)—Oregon linebacker Kevin Garrett was suspended indefinitely for breaking team rules.
Coach Mike Bellotti announced the suspension Saturday. Details of the violation were not released.
Garrett, a junior from Harbor City, Calif., was at the top of the depth chart at weakside linebacker heading into preseason practice. He had 21 tackles, 5 1/2 for losses, in 12 games last season.

 

[Conan]

Speaking of Cal.....

Here are Tedford's comments at the Pac-10 media day...

They answer some of the questions I have about the team, important ones but I'm not sure if Tedford was padding things a bit or not.

“I feel like we’re in a great situation with our quaterback position. Obviously Nate has played a lot of games for us and won a lot of games for us. He’s a very talented guy. Kevin Riley is a guy who came in last season and had a couple of opportunities and showed very well. We have very good depth there. It’s going to be a very competitive fall camp. We’ll pick a starter the week of the first game. It may take both of them to achieve our goals this season.”
Asked to clarify that last remark later, Tedford said: “Both guys are going to get some game time. That’s one thing we need to do a better job of is make sure we create depth and give people the opportunity to have game situations.”
More:
“Jahvid Best’s health is good. He’s very explosive. He’s one hundred percent healthy.”
On the depth at tailback: “I’m very, very anxious to see these guys perform. We’ve had some very good running backs at Cal in our tenure there. This is the most explosive combination in the backfield since I’ve been here.”
As mentioned earlier, Tedford cited Best and Shane Vereen as his explosive backs. I asked him later about Tracy Slocum, and Tedford said he wasn’t intentionally leaving Slocum out; just that he didn’t want to name every player. He said Slocum is “doing well.”
On the ruling in the student-athlete center case: “It’s very exciting news. I’m really, really happy it’s moving in the right direction and we’ll be getting rid of some of the distraction that has been there for the last year and a half. I’m very happy for our student-athletes and coaches, and not just our football players but the whole athletic department in general that we are moving forward with this.”
“There’s been a changing of the guard with some of the leadership. Some strong leadership has really surfaced inside the locker room.”

 

[UoweDucks]

Ducks will be without their starting WLB in at least game one. Retard Kevin Garrett got a DUI over the weekend. His backup has about the same experience, is a little bigger but not quite as fast.

 

[Conan]

Ducks will be without their starting WLB in at least game one. Retard Kevin Garrett got a DUI over the weekend. His backup has about the same experience, is a little bigger but not quite as fast.

Maybe a moot point (I am hoping.) Provided that the Duck's offense comes up with similar overwhelming play, it won't matter. I think Costa will prove himself and prove it early. The only question I have about the kid is his ability to make decisions as well as Dixon was able to do. Aside from that, I don't see much of ANY fall off in the Duck offense talentwise, and that includes the QB position, (Stewart or no Stewart.) All they need is a target or 2 for Costa to throw at. That's about it. Otherwise, the Ducks are once again loaded. Were it not for their terrible schedule, I'd have them breathing down USC's neck.

 

[Conan]

bump for Pickle

:missingte

 

[WinOne]

I'm loving all the comments. Some things I wonder about in the Wacky Pac10

Will ASU have the same type of charm that had getting off to slow starts and rallying for victories. The O-line looks to be even worse this year and they still don't have speed on on either side of the ball. They have a stretch of games in the middle of the season against UNLV, UGA, @CAL, @USC, Oregon, then @ Ore St. If they survive this stretch healthy they have a chance to finish strong.

Oregon lost soooo many skilled players LY to injury. It helped them build depth and also remember that this will be the 2nd year that most of those kids will have been in this offense which is scary because they were in the top 10 in scoring offense. Both their lines should be scary to opponents. Surely they wont have the injury bug again.

Cal cant have the disappointing mid season again like they did last year. They now have 2 proven QBs that the team can rally around and a defense that should be a lot better. They get Oregon, ASU, and UCLA at home which is a plus which means throw out the road loss at USC and they only have to beat a pretty decent OSU team on the road. Barring injuries and coaching meltdowns, this could be a very, very good year in Berkeley.

I am not buying the hype of UoA. Partly because I'm a SunDevil alum (I'm honest) but because I want to see them prove it. They played great against Oregon but were down early before Dixon blew out his knee. We'll never know what would have happened but they look to have some legal issues with personel a coach who HAS TO WIN this year. Also, they have to protect their QB because the depth is thin behind him and with this offense he's gotten the majority of the snaps to help him learn it. I'm thinking middle of the pack here.

I want to see what slick Rick and Norm Chow get out of the Bruins. We know they'll play some defense. The will end up as one of the better defenses in the league. If slick Rick and Norm can get 24 points from their offense, this team wins 10 games. They go to Oregon and Cal in October and then go to ASU late in the year in a place they typically play well. Again, if they can get 24 points a game, this could be a very interesting team to wager on.

USC will be USC. They will be the best defensive team in the nation and they will be committed to moving the QB around a bit more because Sanchez throws very well on the run. The young skilled players are all experienced now so don't be surprised to see another Bush/Lienhart/White type of run from the offense. They just reload. The game versus Oregon will be an interesting one though as Ducks/Bruins/Cal are the only teams in the conference that have not backed down from them in the recent past. They will lose to 1 of those 3.

Should be another very interesting year in the PAC10

WinOne!!