Oz Soccer Picks

[lastguyoffthabench]

Three team parlay;
2 units Chelsea -122, City -255, Spurs -300. 2.4/1 odds


I see value in Villa +.5 -140 vs Leicester. Goals will be hard to come by on the road... used to seeing Leicester sit in deep then counter, Villa carries momentum from last result over CP.
1 unit Villa +.5 -140


Payet back rejuvenates the Hammers. Expecting them to head into St. James Park and Atleast come away with a point, possibly steal a late winner.
2 units West Ham PK +110.
1 unit West Ham win +200.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

Chelsea draw costs me the winning day.


1-3. -4 units

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

1.5 units on Arsenal -104 at Stoke.

1.0 unit on Man Utd +.5 goal at Liverpool.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

2.0 unit Stoke +.5 -120
0.5 unit Stoke +275
Leicester coming down to earth and with this home clash the game will open up early.
Prediction: 1-1

1.5 units Man Utd -115 vs So'ton as they will struggle at Old Trafford. Boring game, but Rooney and Martial find the back of the net.
Prediction: 2-0


1.0 unit Sunderland PK +107 vs Bournemouth. Sunderland at home gets a needed boost by Defoe.
Prediction: 1-1 with a chance of Sunderland scoring late.


1.0 unit Newcastle +.5 -125 at Watford; rematch of the FA Cup game where the Magpies lost 1-0. There the focus for both squads has always been league play and moving further away from the drop zone.
Prediction: 1-0 Newcastle, but taking the option with the .5 goal in case of a draw.


1.0 unit Villa +.5 -130 at WBA; Villa needs to win. Tough road test vs a very organized WBA squad, but Villa in decent form;
Prediction: 0-0.



Overall Record: 2-4. -4.56 units

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

161184374-1 1/22/2016 3:20 AM
2.0 unit Parlay 200.00 2,326.58
#1 Pregame Soccer
25037 Tottenham +115 for Game
#2 Pregame Soccer
25041 Stoke City +½ -120 for Game
#3 Pregame Soccer
25046 Manchester United -115 for Game
#4 Pregame Soccer
25065 Manchester City -140 for Game


161184376-1 1/22/2016 3:25 AM
.25 unit Parlay 25.00 5,785.12
#1 Pregame Soccer
Draw (Tottenham vs Crystal Palace) +235 for Game
#2 Pregame Soccer
Draw (Stoke City vs Leicester City) +240 for Game
#3 Pregame Soccer
Draw (Southampton vs Manchester United) +245 for Game
#4 Pregame Soccer
Draw (Liverpool vs Norwich City) +245 for Game
#5 Pregame Soccer
25065 Manchester City -140 for Game

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

forgot to post this:

161184375-1 1/22/2016 3:22 AM
.5 unit Parlay 50.00 2,640.65
#1 Pregame Soccer
25037 Tottenham +115 for Game
#2 Pregame Soccer
25041 Stoke City +300 for Game
#3 Pregame Soccer
25046 Manchester United -115 for Game
#4 Pregame Soccer
25049 Liverpool -105 for Game
#5 Pregame Soccer
25065 Manchester City -140 for Game


still have 4 selections on here that have not changed.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

-7.10 units today: 1-4-1

0-4 on Parlays

-11.66 units YTD
Record: 3-7-1; -6.91 Units
Parlay Record: 0-4; -4.75 Units

After looking at Man City lineup, I expect them to win. Should be a high scoring affair as well.

2.0 units Man City -140 over WHU.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

CORRECTION:

-7.625 Units today

-2.75 Units on parlays
-4.875 Units on SU plays; 2.0 Units on Man City -140 pending

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

Missed the action on Chelsea -345 and -1.5 -143.

Futures bets for FA Cup
3.0 units on Chelsea at 5/1
1.0 unit on Crystal Palace at 16/1

this is Chelsea's only chance at a trophy... they have no real shot at the top 4.
Crystal Palace not near the drop zone and unlikely top 4... with Adebayor signing and Bolasie return soon, good value here.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

5.0 Units Arsenal -130. Revenge game here and much needed home win. 2-0 Gunners. Sanchez and Giroud score.
4.0 units City -1 -140. City awful on road, but healthier and get it done. 3-1 or 3-0 City
3.0 units WHU -110. Value here in a near pick em. Can't see Villa stealing a point on the road. 1-0 or 2-1 WHU
3.0 units Spurs -122. Spurs on fire, Norwich won't be able to stop the flames from spreading. Spurs 3-1.
1.0 unit parlay - Arsenal W, Liverpool PK, Spurs W, Man City W, Man Utd W
1.0 unit parlay - Arsenal W, Spurs W, WHU W, Man City W, Man Utd W

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

my ratings go from 1.0 to 10.0

 

[MAJORK]

BOL to you!

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

Arsenal costs me the big winning day...

YTD Record: 5-9-2. (-11.21 units) on games straight up
YTD Parlays: 0-6 (-6.75 units)

Looking to turn this bad run around and there are some valued games for road teams:

5.0 units Man City -1. +102. City home and healthy. Leicester will not be able to sit in successfully with Man City fire power.
3.0 units Liverpool -1 -137. Should be a high scoring affair. Likely a 3-1 score line. Don't want to lay the 213 straight up.
3.0 units West Ham +.5 +113. Dangerous enough to cause Soton fits. Happy with a draw here...
3.0 units Crystal Palace +.5 -140
2.0 units Norwich PK +123. Both teams need the 3 Pts. This game will open up, favoring Norwich... can see a 1-1, 2-2 draw.
2.0 units Man City -170.
1.0 units Norwich +213. Norwich might steal this one late...
---------------------------------------------------------

PARLAYS
3.0 units to win 36.95: Nor PK, Liv -213, City -170, CP+.5, Tot -203
3.0 units to win 7.45: Man City -170, Liverpool -213, Tot -203
0.50 units to win 11.18: Nor PK, Liv -213, City -1 -105, CP +.5 -140, WHU +.5 +113
0.25 units to win 41.56: Nor +213, Liv -213, City -1, WHU +400, CP +260
0.25 units to win 9.56: Nor +213, Liv -213, City -170, CP +260, Tot -203
0.25 units to win 13.37: Nor +213, Liv -213, City -170, WHU +400, Tot -203

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

Oz Record for BPL games: 110-130... with 22 scores predicted correctly.

Paul Merson from Sky Sports: 107-133... with 14 scores predicted correctly.

My selections for week 25 that I won't be wagering:
Newcastle 1, WBA 1. (lean Newcastle -110)
Everton 2, Stoke 1. (lean Everton PK -108)

Arsenal 2, AFC Bournemouth 1.
Chelsea 1, Man Utd 0.


Sunday BPL games:
3.0 units on Arsenal +100. Arsenal is slipping, but win this one late...
1.5 units on Chelsea -.5. +115. Still unbeaten under Hiddink, PSG and City upcoming in the next few weeks and this will be a tune-up in preparation for UCL and FA CUP.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

The Arsenal result stings as both a supporter and bettor; 27.0 unit swing is a kick to the sack... sitting -17.48 units instead of being +9.56

Regroup and move on... here's to better results for week 25.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

Horrible results for Gameweek 25... thankfully Denver Broncos ML and Von Miller MVP recouped my losses.

3.0 units on WBA -.5 -105
A few points ahead of the drop zone, have some injuries in the back, plus a road clash screams DRAW... but I'm thinking WBA 2-1 winners.

2.0 units on Bayern -2 -137. Should put up 3 goals and not concede.

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

2.0 units Southampton PK -150
0.5 units Southampton +138

2.0 units Stoke City +0.5 -128
0.5 units Stoke City +300

2.0 units West Ham PK +120
0.5 units West Ham +205

1.0 unit Crystal Palace -0.5 +122

1.0 unit Chelsea -213

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

5.0 units Arsenal -138
1.0 units ov 2.5 -130
Keep going to the well here with backing Arsenal and fading Leicester... bad results. Arsenal breaks out of the slump and closes the gap on title race... this game will be of more importance than the FA Cup or UCL clash w Barca. Slight lean on over 2.5 goals too.

3.0 units Man City +108
City has owned some quality results vs the Spurs in the past...

1.5 units Aston Villa +0.5 +105

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

Welbeck saves me as Leicester fought off the Gunners for 40 min down a man.

3.0 units PSG -160
1.5 units PSG +108

1.0 units PSG to win UCL. +1200
0.5 units Chelsea to win UCL +2050


PSG all day. The injury to Zouma in the back will hurt the Blues...a team that's 4-6-5 on on the road in the BPL/UCL this year... Chelsea let up 2 goals vs WBA, 3 vs Everton, 1 vs a Man Utd team who is terrible going forward... They could not break down Watford and had a gift with Arsenal down to 10 early... PSG will prove to have too much pace.


If Chelsea scores first, I'd expect a 1-1/2-1 game in favor of PSG. If PSG scores first I expect a 2-0 or 3-1 result...

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

2.5 units Barca -2.5 +120
Sporting has only lost by 3 goals at home once this season. Solid XI for Barca... should be a nice tune up before arsenal fixture. 3-0 or 4-1.


2.0 units Roma +0.5 +110
Taking Roma based on RM history on the road and current injuries. Most likely roll out with a 3-5-2 that looks like a 5-3-2 or 5-4-1. 1-1 draw...