Yeah I think Illinois will cover, I also think they will win outright. But still going to pass the rest of the season, just have to now, if I was going to renig on my statement and bet again, I would have bet East Tenn St friday or Illinois sunday. Im just glad my friend took Illinois for 270 in Vegas sunday, 270 was all he had. Ha. This guy is a $20 bettor, who only bets when I have a really strong game. The bastard went like 13-3 this year with my "strong" picks, then hits Illinois for 13 times his original play. LOL.
Why Illinois will cover the 7 or why I feel Illinois is the right play, no guarantee the cover.
Dee Brown is one of the quickest players in the nation and a great defender, if Illinois does not want Reddick to get a shot off, he won't, Brown will be in his grill. Duhon is still in pain and this doesnt help Duke much either, in all honesty, would you want an injured Duhon whom you can tell is in pain when he plays or Deron Williams? Williams has turned into a complete Badass. Illinois also has another great defender in Luther Head whom can matchup with Reddick if needed. Head and Brown are both very solid defenders.
Luol Deng, of course this is a tough matchup for anyone, this guy will be a top 5 pick if he goes pro. Matching up with him will be Roger Powell most likely, who is a pretty solid position defender and will keep Deng off the offensive boards but most likely lacks the quickness if Deng wants to take him off the dribble. Sheldon Williams is a very good player also, but every single time I have watched these guys he has gotten into foul trouble, I expect this to happen again as the Illini will go to Augustine and Powell early inside. Dee Brown will also look to get to the rack often. Randolph has played well though, so losing Williams might not be that bad for Duke.
About Illinois turnovers as someone mentioned. This team has 2 point guards basically Brown and Williams, I do not think they will be turning the ball over at a high rate. Both are very good ball handlers and Williams is very very heady, I wish this guy was at IU.
2 years ago IU came in as the 5 seeded Big 10 regular season champion as 14 point underdogs to Duke, much the same way Illinois did but Illinois was only 7 pt dogs. Big time Duke against the poor Big 10, no chance, no chance. Most people don't realize that ACC ball is very very different than Big 10 ball and in the tourney the team that is usually adjusting is the ACC team because all of a sudden the other team is playing good defense. This is one reason why Steve Lavin kept on saying he thought the Big 10 would be successful in the post season while Dick and Digger at that time was saying they would be a joke. Duke will not score at will on Illinois and this will be a dogfight. I think this game will be very very good and I can't wait to watch this one, I wish it was on Thursday.