well thats a big IF but for sure thats the way to approach all sportsbetting lock in an overlay when you see it..even if its early...
the only minor downside of doing it early is the limits are not top notch early so you might show your hand early..but for 99% thats not going to be an issue
but the public does not move the lines, the sharp action moves the lines.
the only minor downside of doing it early is the limits are not top notch early so you might show your hand early..but for 99% thats not going to be an issue
but the public does not move the lines, the sharp action moves the lines.
Well..... Here goes an old man with real experience speaking up again.
This type of attitude is exactly how the big hotels got big. From public thinking like quoted above.
The fact is NOT this..."assuming you are decent enough at predicting how the public will move the lines." (to get out in front of the changes)
The fact is this..... If you could predict the public opinions, you would simply wait until the last minute and ALWAYS bet against the public. This approach would be guaranteed to win over time. People are mostly stupid to begin with.... and the oddsmakers are pros at taking advantage of all that stupidity.
Balls-on accurate!
No. I am saying you can't just blindly do anything. You have to be able to recognize "public" moves.
What I am really saying is this...... under no circumstances should you ever be in a hurry to get ahead of public money to get a better price on what the PUBLIC is betting.
No offense Justo, but your post to open the thread says exactly the opposite of the mathematical fact I am pointing out. As I pointed out, this is "exactly how the big hotels got big".
P.S. If it was as easy as the first post indicates.... everyone would already be retired and sipping little umbrella drinks.
Read closely Justo. I am saying you have to isolate on which moves are caused by the public.. Then bet against all of those.
I recognize just how hard it is to know for sure all the public moves. But the first post refers to betting early "assuming you are decent enough at predicting how the public will move the lines." (Betting the same side to beat the line moves)
That would be absolute financial suicide.
I recognize just how hard it is to know for sure all the public moves. But the first post refers to betting early "assuming you are decent enough at predicting how the public will move the lines." (Betting the same side to beat the line moves)
That would be absolute financial suicide.
when "public" money is aligned with "sharp" money, it definitely moves the line. the trick is to figure out those occurrences (which happen more than people realize). of course, books fear those situations because they'll immediately know they've hung a bad line and they become over exposed. while these plays don't always hit, you certainly don't want to be on the opposite side of them over the long run.
